How many points would Crosby have scored in NCAA...

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by derbyfan, Apr 3, 2006.

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  1. derbyfan

    derbyfan Registered User

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    Started thinking about this late last night... While I don't think Sidney Crosby was ever seriously considering the college route, I believe he did take an unoficial visit to Minnesota when he was at Shattuck's (could be wrong though).
    So let's say Sid had elected to shun the CHL, stick at Shattuck's (or go USHL) and then head to the NCAA. I believe this would have been his first season.
    Let's say, for argument's sake, he went to a powehouse school like U-Wisc, Mich, Minny, BC etc (Really going out on a limb there, eh?) :sarcasm:
    What kind of numbers would Sidney have put up? Dany Heatley put up 56 points in 38 games as a frosh, Kariya of course put up an insane 100 in 39 games.
    NCAA is a tougher league to score in than the Q, so what would he have put up south of the border?
     
  2. Letang fan 58

    Letang fan 58 No More Fleury

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    Ive thought about this exact question many times and had many discussions with my buddies about it, as a 16 year old my belief is that he would have put up in the neighbourhood of 65-70 points......17 yo im guessing he would have put up 95-105.......as an 18 yo which is this season i think he may have pushed the 3 points per game mark if not passed it and who knows as an older player how many he would have got.

    Now as the case is that he would not have played in the NCAA till this season or the past season im not sure which year he graduated......I think he would have started off in the neighbourhood of 2.5 - 3 ppg in his freshman season. I do think if he had been a player in college for 3-4 seasons like a normal player he would have won 3-4 straight hobey baker awards.........has this been done before?
     
  3. MN_Gopher

    MN_Gopher Registered User

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    When Kariya put up his 2 points a game the NCAA was not as tough or as old. Almost all NCAAers came right from high school. With no U18 team, the USHL was not as big. So looking at other NCAA guys like Heatley.

    Heatley 56 in 38
    St Louis 51 in 33
    Gionta 62 in 40

    Not that Crosby plays like those guys. If he had played for the gophers this year he wouls have been on a PP with Kessel and Potulny. If he had played with the gophers 2 years ago. He would have had Vanek on his wing. I think he would have been at 2 points per game. But much closer to 2 than to coming close to 3.

    And in many cases players of Crosbys caliber would excel their schooling to get to the NCAA early. Like Towes, Kessel, Finley, Hagemo and i think Thelen did. To name a few. So more than likely last year would have been his one and only season in the NCAA. If he had played last year and this year. I could see 3 a game. So my above would be him as a 17 year old.
     
  4. derbyfan

    derbyfan Registered User

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    Holy ****! Wasn't expecting numbers like that. In the Q he averaged well over 2 points per game, but that was in a league with more scoring than the NCAA.
    I would have pegged it closer to the 100 point mark, due to less games and less scoring overall. What's the NCAA record, anyway?
     
  5. pei fan

    pei fan Registered User

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    After the injury recovered last year he was scoring at almost 4 points a game in the
    Q as a 17 year old. He was over 2 points a game as a 16 year old. So yeah I think the guys assessments are pretty good. The bottom line is he would be too good to play in the NCAA.It would be silly really.
     
  6. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    An interesting question. The NCAA's never really seen a player like Crosby (a once in a generation talent) so it's hard to compare him to anyone. Kariya would probably be the best comparison, although Crosby is a step up and the college game in Kariya's day was a not as good as it is today. I'd say if he would have played college hockey in a good conferance (like the WCHA) as a 17 year old, he would have scored between 80-100 points.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2006
  7. jake1

    jake1 Registered User

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    I had heard from a good (Shattuck) source that he was down to North Dakota or the Q. After visiting North Dakota, he asked about accelerating his education to get there a year early. Considering the Shattuck-to-UND pipeline that was in place at the time, with sons of NHL-connected dads like Parise and Murray there, it wasn't so far-fetched. Ultimately it came down to two things: 1) the Q made him a financial offer he couldn't refuse, and 2) He still had a year with no place to play. Even if he had accelerated, he still had one more year of school to finish. So he couldn't go to college because he was still in HS. He just dominated midgets, so there was no point in doing that again. Likewise, the USHL or Canadian juniors (BCHL, etc.) were already below him. His only developmental option really was the Q.

    I personally think he would have led the nation in scoring as a 17-year old college freshman.

    BTW, the NCAA record was Tony Hrkac's sophomore year at UND in 1986-87 of 46-70-116 in 48 games. Others have had higher points per game but played fewer games.
     
  8. Hunter Gathers

    Hunter Gathers ordinary corrupt human love

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    I agree. He would've blown the competition out of the water. I think it would've been a great thing for college hockey to have a player like him play in it. Much more exposure. Hopefully someone of his caliber chooses to play there eventually. Having a Kessel there is nice, but he's no Crosby. We've all realized that now, hahaha.
     
  9. AdmiralPred

    AdmiralPred Registered User

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    If Crosby had played in the WCHA he might have broke the 80 pt plateau, that's still 2 pts/game and something that not many of the great WCHAers have done in the past few seasons, for a full season. I know I'll proably catch some flak there. Can guys come to the NCAAs early? As a 16 year old? Sure Kessel is an October birthday and turned 18 during his first collegiate semester, but that is not uncommon.
     
  10. Hunter Gathers

    Hunter Gathers ordinary corrupt human love

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    As a 17 year old in the NCAA, he would've broken 80 points EASILY. I am a huge supporter of college hockey, but we're talking about a kid who absolutely demolished the QMJHL and is currently, as an 18 year old, scoring at an amazing clip in the NHL.
     
  11. AdmiralPred

    AdmiralPred Registered User

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    He probably could have broken 80, it just seems easier for players to rack up points in the Q, or the OHL for that matter, you don't necessarily see that in the NCAAs.
     
  12. Hunter Gathers

    Hunter Gathers ordinary corrupt human love

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    Yeah, but we're not talking a smallish, unspeedy player who doesn't hit. Crosby gets gritty, is fast, and is one of the most dominant, young offensive players I have ever seen play the game. He's not one of those Q scorers who does jack all in the pros (like Simon Gamache, et all), as we've seen obviously this year.

    I stick up for the NCAA with all the bashing it takes all the time on these boards, but I think Crosby would've turned the league upside down. The Q wasn't a challenge for him and I doubt the NCAA would've been either. Maybe a bit of a step up, but for someone like his caliber, that's like just a changing of semesters.
     
  13. willie

    willie Registered User

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    Considering he led major junior in scoring as a 16 year old rookie, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he would have led NCAA in scoring as a 16 year old freshman too. (although that situation is completely unlikely since he would have had two accelarate school by two years)
     
  14. MN_Gopher

    MN_Gopher Registered User

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    Using Heatley and Crosby for the cross test.

    Heatley averaged 1.47 his firt year of college and .81 his first year of NHL
    Crosby is averaging 1.16 his first year.

    So .81/1.47 = 1.16/x

    cross multiply and divide and Crosby would have averaged 2.10 points per game. Or right around 80 some points. I think that would be fair assesment.
     
  15. AdmiralPred

    AdmiralPred Registered User

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    No, we aren't - talking smallish that is. And in defense of Gamache, he has had an incredable AHL career here in Milwaukee but, he did light it up in the Q and is very smallish, like Haydar from UNH. Yes, Crosby can get gritty and that would have made him a gem, especially in the WCHA, but even on a stacked team like Sconnie, UMN, or UND I think it would have been more of a challenge for him to hit 80 points with 28 WCHA +playoffs contests. Not saying he couldn't do it, of coarse.
     
  16. Hunter Gathers

    Hunter Gathers ordinary corrupt human love

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    I think Crosby was around twice the player Heatley was with players in his own age range, however. I think he'd crack 80 easily and would be pushing mid 90s.
     
  17. VOB

    VOB Registered User

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    That seems to be the perception around here but I am not so sure. No question that the college game was more "open" back then, leading to what we consider exagerated scoring totals today but I think the talent in the game back then was everybit as good if not better than today.

    This is the era that gave us not only Karyia but Weight, Amonte, Guerin, Tkachuk, Rolston, Smolinski. Juneau and so on.

    Heck, if my memory serves me right, the college game seemed much quicker and far more enjoyable back then!

    As for the question at hand, no doubt that had Crosy played as a true freshman this year, he would have broke Karyia's record.
     
  18. AdmiralPred

    AdmiralPred Registered User

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    Yes, quite a good era... but... I really like the guys comming up and going out now too.

    Hard to say. I was just watching my tapes from the Wisc. Badgers 1990 and 1992 Tourney runs and the Tony Amonte-Keith Tkachuk 1991 Championship game and I think the players are faster and stronger this year. More guys made it all 4 years back in those days too. Not sure how that might factor in to what I just said, but thought I'd throw it out there.

    Well Karyia played in a wide open HE conference with Jim Montgomery, the Ferraro brothers and Cal somebody, who slips my mind at the moment. Everyone could pump in goals with Karyia feeding them, it was nuts.

    In today's WCHA, where Crosby likely would have played in, at least that is what has been speculated in this thread, I think it would have been a big challenge for even him to hit 80 points, especially as a freshman. Again, not saying he couldn't do it.
     
  19. HabLover

    HabLover Registered User

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    437 pts in 12 games!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     


  20. Yeah, but Dany Heatley played for Wisconsin, and they play a defense-first game, to say the least.

    Also, Eaves usually does not trust freshman with very much, so what Heatley did was simply astronomical. He was a man among boys in the NCAA, and basically a one-man show.
     
  21. :clap:
     
  22. Genghis Keon

    Genghis Keon Registered User

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    Do you really think it would be such a big challenge? This year, at 17, Toews is basically scoring at a point per game clip (38 points in 41 games). At 17, Crosby was light years ahead of where Toews is now. At 16, Crosby was light years ahead of where Toews is now. Even at 15 at Shattuck St. Mary's, where he absolutely dominated (he outscored a then 17 year old Drew Stafford by 50 points), Crosby was probably ahead of where Toews is now, but it is probably debatable. And a few years ago, at 18, Parise put up 61 points in 39 games as a freshman, while at 18, Crosby is top 10 in scoring in the NHL. Again, do you really think scoring 80 points as a freshman (especially as an 18 year old freshman) would really be such a big challenge?
     
  23. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    I bascially had the same reaction. He is going to approach 100 points and likely not only crack the top ten but be nicely within it by the time the season ends. Do people actually think that he would have a harder time and score fewer points in college than he would at the NHL level? :confused:
     
  24. AdmiralPred

    AdmiralPred Registered User

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    Tony Hrkac 1987 UND - 46-70-116
    The last players to crack 100 was Paul Karyia in 1992-93 with 25-75-100 and Kip Millers ballzy season at Mich State with 101 points in 1990-91.

    UW being defensively orientated is, for the most part, a correct statement. However, Heatley played at the end of the Jeff Sauer era, which became a more defensively orientated scheme, although with Steve Reinprecht and Hukalo that first season they pretty much took off. Eaves started off that way, but there wasn't any offense in WI when he took over. Eaves had to go out and basically re-recruit guys beginning with defense and goaltending. He also probably won't go after too much high-end offensive talent unless the talent comes to him. He let Kessel bolt to UMN, and that was fine by me.

    I'm saying it would be more of a challenge, yes. The Q was wide open, and I think they even let their scorers rack up points to accumulate unreal point totals, something you don't usually see in the NCAAs. He would have had some sweet numbers in the WCHA, I don't doubt that, I'm just saying that 80 points would have been more of a challenge for him. How many points would Crosby have had in the WHL?

    Not saying that. 80 points in college is phenominal, thats 2 pts per game give or take a tenth. I think he would obviously have had an easier time in college hockey than in the pros, I'm just saying he wouldn't have scored at the clip he did in the Q. Not because I don't think he's talented (not the least - he's an incredable talent), but because the college game and the WCHA game are very different from the Q.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2006
  25. Rabid Ranger

    Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    What I was getting at is top to bottom, the NCAA is much more competitive throughout it's ranks than in years past. There have always been great teams and great players, but now it's not just a few top tier teams and some bottom feeders.
     

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