How many goals will Ovechkin end up with?

[Slapshot Sultan]

Curious to see how the votes spread between the choices.

Hes currently at 720. I think he makes a 4 year deal in the summer and scores at least 100 more goals, so minimum 820. But I think he has his eyes on the target and will end up with 895-905.

What do you think?

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[The Moose is Loose]

I went with 850-875 which seems pretty generous imo
That's assuming he is putting 40 for the next 3 years which is an extremely tall order for someone who will be in their late 30s

Too much has happened out of Ovi's control to really think he'll break Gretzky's record unless he plays past 40 in the NHL. Especially since he has said he wants to play in the KHL at some point leads me to believe he won't stay way past his prime in the NHL record chasing

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

I went with 850-875 which seems pretty generous imo
That's assuming he is putting 40+ for the next 4 years which is an extremely tall order for someone who will be in their late 30s

Too much has happened out of Ovi's control to really think he'll break Gretzky's record unless he plays past 40 in the NHL. Especially since he has said he wants to play in the KHL at some point leads me to believe he won't stay way past his prime in the NHL record chasing

I mean, if he puts 40 for the next 4 years (160 goals), that puts his total to 720 + 160 = 880.
And this season is not done so 40+ for the next 4 years means that he makes it.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I mean, if he puts 40 for the next 4 years (160 goals), that puts his total to 720 + 160 = 880 (and this season is not done so 40+ for the next 4 years means that he makes it)

But is he really putting up 40 at 39 years old? If he does that then yeah he'll break Gretzky's records

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

But is he really putting up 40 at 39 years old? If he does that then yeah he'll break Gretzky's records

Yep, I think he needs a full season next year with 45+ and a total of 5 more years after this one to make it so he doesn't have to score 40 at 39

 

[COHawk]

Accidentally voted 825-850. I think he will end up with 900+. As long as he keeps on pace he will score 13 additional goals for a total of 27 this season and 733 career. If he plays 5 more seasons til age 40 he would need to average just more than 33 goals in 5 years. That seems quite possible. Hypothetical regression scenario below:

Season	Age	Goals
2021-22	36	39
2022-23	37	36
2023-24	38	35
2024-25	39	31
2025-26	40	26
Career		900

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Video Nasty]

I think he passes Howe and everything else is very uncertain. 36 in September, has played a ton, unclear how many more seasons, if it will be an 82 game season next time, etc.

Seems like he wants the four year deal, but are we talking about up to 353 more games in his career (remaining 25 this season and 4 seasons at 82 apiece) or less?

Should he be expected to play almost all those games like he always has up to this point? Maybe he'll buck the trend and never see a decline in GPG, but with 1350 or so games in the NHL at the completion of this season, it has to take its toll somewhere at some point. Every ironman of his caliber eventually misses significant time. Look at someone like LeBron who even with load management and strategic breaks has routinely played 100 or so games year in and year out. He missed significant time in his first season with the Lakers and now he's out indefinitely this season for now. It catches up, even if the talent never fades. Ovechkin has always been able to power through injuries and continue playing, but it gets much more difficult mid-30s and beyond.

Meant to vote for the 825-850 range. I think any number in that range is fair and going off the assumption that he plays only 4 years after this, a possible non 82 game season for 2021-2022, and factoring in at least a little more missed time than we're used to.

If he plays 5 more seasons after this one and is sitting at 736 goals by the end of this season, sure, it's fair to think he'll catch Gretzky.

 

[Mattavarner]

No way he gets between 850 and 894, if hes over 850 might as well keep going.
I say he gets it, even if hes not a net positive I think the capitals will keep signing him to 1 year deals till he gets it, they owe him that much

 

[Voight]

He can pop 25 a year (at least) if he just sits here all season

 

[Kuznetsnow]

But is he really putting up 40 at 39 years old? If he does that then yeah he'll break Gretzky's records

Selanne put up 78 goals after he turned 40, Ovechkin could realistically hold up just as well with how injury free he's been in comparison.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

No way he gets between 850 and 894, if hes over 850 might as well keep going.
I say he gets it, even if hes not a net positive I think the capitals will keep signing him to 1 year deals till he gets it, they owe him that much

Hope so, this would easily trump multiple cups now that he's won the franchise one.

 

[Future GOAT]

Accidentally voted 894, he'll probably end up around 800-825ish.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Picked 800-825. I think he is capable of more but I have a suspicion he doesn’t stay in North America long enough to get any higher.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Accidentally voted 825-850. I think he will end up with 900+. As long as he keeps on pace he will score 13 additional goals for a total of 27 this season and 733 career. If he plays 5 more seasons til age 40 he would need to average just more than 33 goals in 5 years. That seems quite possible. Hypothetical regression scenario below:

Season	Age	Goals
2021-22	36	39
2022-23	37	36
2023-24	38	35
2024-25	39	31
2025-26	40	26
Career		900

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

None of that seems remotely unrealistic to me.

But of course there is a wide range of things that could happen. Lots of uncertainty. There could be another lockout and he could have a serious injury.

Or he could get 35 this year and 50 next season (791) and end up at 895 at age 39.

I think if he really wants it, he could just hang around and get the record even if it takes him until age 43.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Until we see that he actually slows down as a goal scorer I'm gonna say he gets the record. Even in a weird covid year where he's struggling a bit for his standards, he's on pace for ~43 goals in an 82 game season. His skillset isn't really one that I think will slow down that much with age either, he can sit there on a team's PP and tee up shots all day and still score, even at 40 or later. And he could still be useful in the KHL into his 40s so I think he has plenty of time to go back home and play if he does want to chase the record here. I think he gets it, but could easily and quickly change my mind if his play does happen to fall off considerably in the next couple years.