How many career points does Connor McDavid end up with?

[bobholly39]

Currently he sits at 469 points in 351 games, or 5 seasons. How many points do you see him ending up with career-wise?

Crosby is probably a good reference point, with both starting at 18 and being close point production-wise 5 years in. He sits at 1263 through age 32. If you assume he plays till ~38 for 6 more seasons and averages ~75 points a year - that would put Crosby at 1713 points. Obviously this isn't about Crosby - he could also do 2000+ or below 1500 - just using this as a reference.

McDavid seems to have a few advantages over Crosby:

- Big chunk of games missed to injuries for Crosby. Anything is possible for McDavid - but obviously we don't predict those.
- League seems to be moving to higher scoring - though it could still fluctuate/revert back

If we estimate McDavid averages out 90 points from age 24 season to age 32 season - that would be 810 more points. If you similarly estimate 75 points for 6 more years that leaves him at ~1729 points. Of course - past 3 seasons alone McDavid is averaging a pace of ~118 points per 82 games, so 90 points could be a low estimate.

If you estimate he averages ~105 points between next season and age 32 - and then averages out at 85 points for 6 more years - that actually puts him at 2024 points. And if you predict him to play past age 38, well he could score even more.

So - what's your best guess, where does he end up career-wise?

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[M88K]

14-16
Figured lockouts, injuries, Corona lost games, will put him towards the high end of that bracket but wouldn't be shocked if he exceeds 16

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think its pretty likely Crosby gets to 1600. That's with him being extremely unlucky with unrelated injuries, dirty headshots, and prolonged IR time from concussions during his prime years. Without the injuries, he'd possibly be looking at 1800+.

McDavid seems to be a little better offensively (imo), and I think its pretty unlikely he gets as unlucky as Crosby did with injuries. To me It seems like McDavid doesn't get targeted nearly as much as Crosby did his first 5 years in the league. It helps he is bigger, and his speed makes him a more slippery target, but the league is also just cleaner. Also the fact that McDavid doesn't have any concussion history is very reassuring. It's optimistic on the injuries front, but I think McDavid get 1800+. He'll miss some games due to Corona and inevitable lockouts, but that's not going to be a huge factor imo, how different will it be from 2012-2013.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

My career forecast model suggests that McDavid will end up with approximately 1,670 points. This was calculated as of early February, and it would be a bit lower if I re-ran it today (he was forecasted to finish 2020 with 127 points - but he missed a few weeks of action, and then obviously the pandemic shortened the season).

Assuming scoring levels remain constant, McDavid should remain a serious contender for the Art Ross until 2027 (age 30). The forecast is pretty harsh on how McDavid ages from age 32 onwards. I don't know if that's a defect with the model though. Perhaps his greatest attribute is his speed, and that will likely diminish as he ages. And I wouldn't call him injury-prone, but he's not a tank like Ovechkin either.

I think 1,600 to 1,800 is a reasonable expectation (assuming no major injuries). For what it's worth, Lindros probably would have been projected to score close to that through age 23 as well (somewhat higher-scoring era, though).

 

[Gurglesons]

1400-1600. He’s had two serious injuries based on his speed. And I think he’ll continue to suffer that.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

1400-1600. He’s had two serious injuries based on his speed. And I think he’ll continue to suffer that.

The fact that he already has knee cartilage damage at 23 isn't a good sign