bobholly39
Registered User
- Mar 10, 2013
- 22,335
- 15,053
Currently he sits at 469 points in 351 games, or 5 seasons. How many points do you see him ending up with career-wise?
Crosby is probably a good reference point, with both starting at 18 and being close point production-wise 5 years in. He sits at 1263 through age 32. If you assume he plays till ~38 for 6 more seasons and averages ~75 points a year - that would put Crosby at 1713 points. Obviously this isn't about Crosby - he could also do 2000+ or below 1500 - just using this as a reference.
McDavid seems to have a few advantages over Crosby:
- Big chunk of games missed to injuries for Crosby. Anything is possible for McDavid - but obviously we don't predict those.
- League seems to be moving to higher scoring - though it could still fluctuate/revert back
If we estimate McDavid averages out 90 points from age 24 season to age 32 season - that would be 810 more points. If you similarly estimate 75 points for 6 more years that leaves him at ~1729 points. Of course - past 3 seasons alone McDavid is averaging a pace of ~118 points per 82 games, so 90 points could be a low estimate.
If you estimate he averages ~105 points between next season and age 32 - and then averages out at 85 points for 6 more years - that actually puts him at 2024 points. And if you predict him to play past age 38, well he could score even more.
So - what's your best guess, where does he end up career-wise?
Crosby is probably a good reference point, with both starting at 18 and being close point production-wise 5 years in. He sits at 1263 through age 32. If you assume he plays till ~38 for 6 more seasons and averages ~75 points a year - that would put Crosby at 1713 points. Obviously this isn't about Crosby - he could also do 2000+ or below 1500 - just using this as a reference.
McDavid seems to have a few advantages over Crosby:
- Big chunk of games missed to injuries for Crosby. Anything is possible for McDavid - but obviously we don't predict those.
- League seems to be moving to higher scoring - though it could still fluctuate/revert back
If we estimate McDavid averages out 90 points from age 24 season to age 32 season - that would be 810 more points. If you similarly estimate 75 points for 6 more years that leaves him at ~1729 points. Of course - past 3 seasons alone McDavid is averaging a pace of ~118 points per 82 games, so 90 points could be a low estimate.
If you estimate he averages ~105 points between next season and age 32 - and then averages out at 85 points for 6 more years - that actually puts him at 2024 points. And if you predict him to play past age 38, well he could score even more.
So - what's your best guess, where does he end up career-wise?