How many career goals will Auston Matthews score?

[Perfect_Drug]

Kinda surprised most people believe he will score more than 500.


Only 2 active players have over 500:
OV and Marleau.

The only way AM sniffs 500, is if he is incredibly healthy with a VERY long career, which given his injury history is incredibly doubtful.


Here's a list of people who aren't there yet:
Crosby (He will likely get there)
Kovalchuk
Staal
Stamkos
Thornton
Malkin
Kane

 

[6ix]

Kinda surprised most people believe he will score more than 500.


Only 2 active players have over 500:
OV and Marleau.

The only way AM sniffs 500, is if he is incredibly healthy with a VERY long career, which given his injury history is incredibly doubtful.

Here's a list of people who aren't there yet:
Crosby (He will likely get there)
Kovalchuk
Staal
Stamkos
Thornton
Malkin
Kane

Matthews is a better goal scorer than everyone you mentioned that hasn’t hit 500 goals yet. Pre injury stammer might have been the only better one.

Also almost everyone on that list had significant injuries and will hit 500+ goals still.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Kinda surprised most people believe he will score more than 500.


Only 2 active players have over 500:
OV and Marleau.

The only way AM sniffs 500, is if he is incredibly healthy with a VERY long career, which given his injury history is incredibly doubtful.


Here's a list of people who aren't there yet:
Crosby (He will likely get there)
Kovalchuk
Staal
Stamkos
Thornton
Malkin
Kane

Matthews is a better goal scorer than everyone you mentioned that hasn’t hit 500 goals yet. Pre injury stammer might have been the only better one.

Also almost everyone on that list had significant injuries and will hit 500+ goals still.

Among those players listed I don't think Kovalchuk gets to 500 goals. I know he's currently at 443 career goals, however he's already 37 years old. Now if he didn't go back to Russia for 5 years he might have already got to 500 goals. Since he returned to the NHL for the 2018-19 season his goal total year was 16 and this season split between the Kings, Canadiens, and Capitals his total was 10 goals.

 

[Regal]

Kinda surprised most people believe he will score more than 500.


Only 2 active players have over 500:
OV and Marleau.

The only way AM sniffs 500, is if he is incredibly healthy with a VERY long career, which given his injury history is incredibly doubtful.


Here's a list of people who aren't there yet:
Crosby (He will likely get there)
Kovalchuk
Staal
Stamkos
Thornton
Malkin
Kane

I see what you're saying, and people can get ahead of themselves with predictions sometimes, but Matthews is a pretty special goalscorer. Of your list, only Kovalchuk and Stamkos are as goal-focused as Matthews (the others are more balanced offensive players or a playmaker in Thornton's case), and Stammer just hit 418 goals before turning 30 despite significant injuries and Kovalchuk had 417 before turning 30. Stamkos will almost assuredly hit 500 and Kovalchuk would have as well if he didn't leave for the KHL. Matthews already has 158 at only 22 so he needs 342 the rest of his career. If he only plays 12 more years, he can average under 30 a year going forward and hit it. Considering he's scored at a 40 goal pace every year of his career so far, and just paced for 55, he's going to have a significantly higher room for variance and injuries compared to guys like Malkin and Kane through his prime. I would be pretty shocked if he didn't hit it.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Matthews is playing in a high scoring era on a high scoring team with a potent PP... hard to decide on the number but it will be high.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Ok, here's what I am saying. Let me make it crystal clear for you and your gang of Toronto haters.

Matthews is the BEST young scorer in the NHL and will take the throne from OV once he fades off.

The only gem here is Auston Matthews and how f***ing insanely good he is! Sit back and enjoy the show.

Did Pastrnak retire?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Under 600. He’s off to a really good start but I’d need to see a couple of seasons where he was the best goal scorer for a year to put him in that more elite group. Those guys all won Rockets and had some monster years. Matthews has come close but he still needs to do it. Plus of course health will be something he will need.

 

[Regal]

Did Pastrnak retire?

They're close, but I don't see the argument for Pasta. They have near-identical GPG the past two years, and since Matthews has entered the league, but Pasta has had much more PP time and better 5v5 linemates.

 

[IPS]

Did Pastrnak retire?

No?

Matthews is just better.

 

[Balance]

IMO I could see Auston Matthews becoming the second greatest goal scorer of all time behind Ovechkin...which is amazing that they are playing in the same time period.

You don't just score 4 goals in your first game and have it be a fluke. He was destined for goal scoring all time greatness.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Under 600. He’s off to a really good start but I’d need to see a couple of seasons where he was the best goal scorer for a year to put him in that more elite group. Those guys all won Rockets and had some monster years. Matthews has come close but he still needs to do it. Plus of course health will be something he will need.

Even though Matthews has not yet won a Rocket Richard Trophy, he's still finished tied for 2nd in goals during his rookie season with 40 and this past season he finished 3rd in goals with 47. So he's on the right track to becoming one of the best goal scoring forwards. Some might say he's already in that elite group.

 

[Balance]

Also, Matthews has averaged 45 goals per season in his first 4 years.

In the last 20 years who has done this besides Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, and Stamkos? I don't believe there's anyone else on that list. He is destined for greatness, and I don't think he will fade like Stamkos did because he has additional skill sets like dirty hands that Stamkos does not possess.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Even though Matthews has not yet won a Rocket Richard Trophy, he's still finished tied for 2nd in goals during his rookie season with 40 and this past season he finished 3rd in goals with 47. So he's on the right track to becoming one of the best goal scoring forwards. Some might say he's already in that elite group.

Agreed. He’s getting close. Still needs to win one though.

 

[danpantz]

No?

Matthews is just better.

In goal scoring? Pastrnak has scored more goals then him 3 years straight.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Also, Matthews has averaged 45 goals per season in his first 4 years.

In the last 20 years who has done this besides Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, and Stamkos? I don't believe there's anyone else on that list. He is destined for greatness, and I don't think he will fade like Stamkos did because he has additional skill sets like dirty hands that Stamkos does not possess.

Offense is up in recent seasons. Difficult to compare. Also can't quite use goal pace to say he has scored 45 per season.

He is a great goal scorer no doubt but already proclaiming him to possibly be the second best after Ovechkin is absurd.

 

[LeafsNation75]

In goal scoring? Pastrnak has scored more goals then him 3 years straight.

Yes that's completely accurate.

However since Pastrnak scored a total of only 1 more goal than Matthews in the last 3 years, that just shows how close they are to each other. So no one can say that Pastrnak is way above and much better then Matthews in terms of goal scoring.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Yes that's completely accurate.

However since Pastrnak scored a total of only 1 more goal than Matthews in the last 3 years, that just shows how close they are to each other. So no one can say that Pastrnak is way above and much better then Matthews in terms of goal scoring.

No one did say that.

 

[danpantz]

Yes that's completely accurate.

However since Pastrnak scored a total of only 1 more goal than Matthews in the last 3 years, that just shows how close they are to each other. So no one can say that Pastrnak is way above and much better then Matthews in terms of goal scoring.

Exactly my point, when someone says one is clearly better than the other, they have been insanely close over the last 3 seasons.

 

[Dache]

Also, Matthews has averaged 45 goals per season in his first 4 years.

In the last 20 years who has done this besides Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, and Stamkos? I don't believe there's anyone else on that list. He is destined for greatness, and I don't think he will fade like Stamkos did because he has additional skill sets like dirty hands that Stamkos does not possess.

How is (40+34+37+47)/4=45?
He has averaged 39.5 goals per season which is still fantastic so there’s no reason to make things up.

 

[Paul4587]

No?

Matthews is just better.

Not at hockey, he isn’t.

 

[wetcoast]

562. If it happens, this post will be burned into your memory. If it doesn't it will be forgotten forever.

Really, even if he ends up at 562 nobody will remember it, likely not even you.

 

[LeafsNation75]

No one did say that.

I realize that. I only added the fact that Pastrnak outscored Matthews the last 3 years by a total of 1 goal because it's a fact that needed to be mentioned in the context of the discussion between them.

 

[Balance]

How is (40+34+37+47)/4=45?
He has averaged 39.5 goals per season which is still fantastic so there’s no reason to make things up.

Goals Per Game. Matthews has only played more than 70 games once in his career, which was his rookie year. Unfair to say he is not a 45 goal scorer.

 

[Dache]

Goals Per Game. Matthews has only played more than 70 games once in his career, which was his rookie year. Unfair to say he is not a 45 goal scorer.

Oh he’s absolutely a 45 goal scorer. Proved it this year. But to say he averages 45 goals a year is a complete lie.

 

[crowi]

I went with 600-699 goals. I must think he SUCKS, as far as scoring goes right.