How many career goals will Auston Matthews score?

[Dache]

Meh. It's later for many. I just picked a conservative number so that I wasn't showing Matthews scoring 10,000 goals.

It’s later for some yes. Doesn’t make 38 a conservative number for most.

 

[Holymakinaw]

It’s later for some yes. Doesn’t make 38 a conservative number for most.

For Superstar guys who make TOP dollar and are the centrepiece of their team? It's very reasonable. Those guys don't walk away from 11.6 million a year at the age of 34 very often at all.

If it makes you feel better, he can retire at 37. Cool?

He'd STILL easily hit 600+ goals.

 

[Dache]

For Superstar guys who make TOP dollar and are the centrepiece of their team? It's very reasonable. Those guys don't walk away from 11.6 million a year at the age of 34 very often at all.

If it makes you feel better, he can retire at 37. Cool?

He'd STILL easily hit 600+ goals.

Hey man. I voted 600-699 and even laid out what I think he’ll get reasonably. Maybe he’ll play till 45, who knows. All I’m saying is that 38 isn’t an “at least” kind of scenario like you laid out in the first post.

 

[Holymakinaw]

All I’m saying is that 38 isn’t an “at least” kind of scenario like you laid out in the first post.

Okay but that's weird to me, because it's so common for star players to play to that age. In fact, MOST "star" players play well beyond that.

AGE RETIRED
Gordie Howe - 43(plus a few times later )
Wayne Gretzky - 38
Mario Lemieux - 40
Mats Sundin - 38
Maurice Richard - 39
Steve Yzerman - 41
Joe Sakic - 40
Rob Blake - 41
Chris Chelios - 48
Paul Coffey - 39
Martin Brodeur - 42
Dom Hasek - 46
Bobby Hull - 41
Stan Mikita - 40
Al MacInnis - 41
Brendan Shanahan - 40
Ron Francis - 41
Jean Beliveau - 40
Dave Keon - 42
Patrick Roy - 38
Guy Lafleur - 41
The Sedins - 38
Larry Robinson - 41
Joe Thornton - 40+
Daniel Alfredsson - 42
Mark Messier - 44
Teemu Selanne - 44
Borje Salming - 42
Jari Kurri - 38
Johnny Bower - 45
Ted Lindsay - 40
Jaromir Jagr - 48+
Patrik Elias - 40
Mike Modano - 41
Phil Housley - 39
Jeremy Roenick - 39
Ray Bourque - 40
Jarome Iginla - 40
Marcel Dionne - 38
Doug Gilmour - 40

I think it's a pretty safe & conservative guess to say Matthews can go until age 38.

 

[Dache]

Okay but that's weird to me, because it's so common for star players to play to that age. In fact, MOST "star" players play well beyond that.

AGE RETIRED
Gordie Howe - 43(plus a few times later )
Wayne Gretzky - 38
Mario Lemieux - 40
Mats Sundin - 38
Maurice Richard - 39
Steve Yzerman - 41
Joe Sakic - 40
Rob Blake - 41
Chris Chelios - 48
Paul Coffey - 39
Martin Brodeur - 42
Dom Hasek - 46
Bobby Hull - 41
Stan Mikita - 40
Al MacInnis - 41
Brendan Shanahan - 40
Ron Francis - 41
Jean Beliveau - 40
Dave Keon - 42
Patrick Roy - 38
Guy Lafleur - 41
The Sedins - 38
Larry Robinson - 41
Joe Thornton - 40+
Daniel Alfredsson - 42
Mark Messier - 44
Teemu Selanne - 44
Borje Salming - 42
Jari Kurri - 38
Johnny Bower - 45
Ted Lindsay - 40
Jaromir Jagr - 48+
Patrik Elias - 40
Mike Modano - 41
Phil Housley - 39
Jeremy Roenick - 39
Ray Bourque - 40
Jarome Iginla - 40
Marcel Dionne - 38
Doug Gilmour - 40

I think it's a pretty safe & conservative guess to say Matthews can go until age 38.

You’re taking pretty much only the most healthy of players from an era where star players had much less contact. Also you have a few goalies in there to make it seem like even more players play that length when goalies are a completely different topic. Plus you’re not taking any of the “stars” that retired before the age of 38 into consideration. Also not to mention is the severe downturn in stats for many of those players on your list in their last few years. Something Matthews would have to avoid to keep up the averages required. I’m not saying he can’t play that long, I’m just saying it’s not a given, and if he does I would bank on a real high production like you seem to be assuming. But that’s just my opinion.

 

[Holymakinaw]

You’re taking pretty much only the most healthy of players from an era where star players had much less contact. Also you have a few goalies in there to make it seem like even more players play that length when goalies are a completely different topic. Plus you’re not taking any of the “stars” that retired before the age of 38 into consideration. Also not to mention is the severe downturn in stats for many of those players on your list in their last few years. Something Matthews would have to avoid to keep up the averages required. I’m not saying he can’t play that long, I’m just saying it’s not a given, and if he does I would bank on a real high production like you seem to be assuming. But that’s just my opinion.

I'm showing that LOTS of the biggest stars in the league......and there are many more than this........play to 38 and beyond. Of course some don't. But many do.

Of course nothing is a "given". But when estimating how many goals a guy can score in his career, we HAVE to take a guess at a length of career, no? So I picked a conservative number. And it's very likely a good guess, I'd say.

 

[Dache]

I'm showing that LOTS of the biggest stars in the league......and there are many more than this........play to 38 and beyond. Of course some don't. But many do.

Of course nothing is a "given". But when estimating how many goals a guy can score in his career, we HAVE to take a guess at a length of career, no? So I picked a conservative number. And it's very likely a good guess, I'd say.

Again that totally fine that you have that opinion, but a list of the healthiest players from a different era including goalies to me doesn’t make it a “conservative” estimate. So I’ll say again. I guess we agree to disagree.