Speculation: How do you feel about the Wild's future?
- Thread starter keppel146
- Start date
- Status
ThatGuy22
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2011
- 10,521
- 4,206
Despite the doom and gloom around here, I feel pretty good.
We're getting good results, with good underlying numbers to suggest it's not a fluke. Although it would be nice to stop dropping winnable games against bad teams.
Dubnyk is playing great, we've got a stacked D core that is suppressing scoring chances like crazy, so it's atleast relatively sustainable we'll be able to keep goals against low, even if his save percentage dips a bit.
We're getting enough scoring throughout the lineup. Even though it would be nice to get a bit more, or have an elite go to guy you can count on every game. But I'm happy with top 10ish numbers.
And we've finally got some talent coming into the system again for the future with Tuch, and Lucia this year; Kunin, JEE and maybe Greenway next year, and Kaprisov at some point.
All and all, i'm relatively happy with the year thus far, and our likely ability to replenish with ELC's in the coming years.
We're getting good results, with good underlying numbers to suggest it's not a fluke. Although it would be nice to stop dropping winnable games against bad teams.
Dubnyk is playing great, we've got a stacked D core that is suppressing scoring chances like crazy, so it's atleast relatively sustainable we'll be able to keep goals against low, even if his save percentage dips a bit.
We're getting enough scoring throughout the lineup. Even though it would be nice to get a bit more, or have an elite go to guy you can count on every game. But I'm happy with top 10ish numbers.
And we've finally got some talent coming into the system again for the future with Tuch, and Lucia this year; Kunin, JEE and maybe Greenway next year, and Kaprisov at some point.
All and all, i'm relatively happy with the year thus far, and our likely ability to replenish with ELC's in the coming years.
HollaHaula
Cynical Wild fan
- Jul 28, 2015
- 860
- 280
How far into the future are we looking?
We're going to need a "neutral" option. For the current team's future, I feel pretty bad. However, our prospects are relatively good. These two factors put my position to neutral.
Finding a really high-caliber prospect center would definitely make me feel better, though.
We're going to need a "neutral" option. For the current team's future, I feel pretty bad. However, our prospects are relatively good. These two factors put my position to neutral.
Finding a really high-caliber prospect center would definitely make me feel better, though.
I'm feeling like the future, if not looking bright, at least looks decent. We can't predict what Tuch, Ek, Kunin, Greenway, Kaprizov, etc. are going to be like, but together with Nino, coyle, and at least one of Zucker, haula, and Granlund, I think we're in pretty good shape up front. D will be weaker in the future, as the Draft is going to hurt us a bit, but should still be strong. I worry about goalie depth a bit.
Coaching looks to be professional and competent.
I like Fletcher, on the whole. He has rebuilt our stock of prospects, and made us somewhat relevant. I hope he has learned his lesson about overinvesting in aging forwards.
I don't see a Cup winning team at present, unfortunately. We will need to hit on one or two of our prospects becoming elite players in order for that to happen.
Coaching looks to be professional and competent.
I like Fletcher, on the whole. He has rebuilt our stock of prospects, and made us somewhat relevant. I hope he has learned his lesson about overinvesting in aging forwards.
I don't see a Cup winning team at present, unfortunately. We will need to hit on one or two of our prospects becoming elite players in order for that to happen.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 975
The cap situation makes me nervous.
Maybe 12 million to work with next season, and that's before Fletch signs Granlund, Nino, Haula, Folin, Gabriel (all RFAs) and/or a backup goalie. Other notable RFAs? Reilly, Olofsson, Michalek, Mitchell, Pulkkinen.. That's really not good.
With expansion, there are different scenarios in play of course. But as much as it gets discussed, the option of trading Spurgeon or Scandella or Dumba or Brodin is a tough one. The option of losing one of those guys for nothing in expansion is far worse, and well within the realm of possibility.
There are some good things, but picking Tuch over Pastrnak or Fabbri seems unwise today. He's the number one prospect in the system and while I wouldn't say he's struggling to adjust to pro hockey, neither is he dominating the competition.
I like JEE, but I don't think he projects as a Kopitar/Toews/Koivu caliber guy. Kunin has limitations as well.
The brightest spot now is a strong group of goalie prospects - all of them doing very well in their respective leagues, for what that's worth.
There are positives in the pipeline - Kaprizov obviously and Greenway - but this is a middling group.
The young core right now is only Brodin and Coyle - U25 guys with long-term deals - and we'll see what happens with the rest of the guys as Fletch juggles upcoming contracts. It won't be easy. And I'll maintain today as I have for years that this team should have kept Larsson and those picks and continued with patience rather than buy high.
Maybe 12 million to work with next season, and that's before Fletch signs Granlund, Nino, Haula, Folin, Gabriel (all RFAs) and/or a backup goalie. Other notable RFAs? Reilly, Olofsson, Michalek, Mitchell, Pulkkinen.. That's really not good.
With expansion, there are different scenarios in play of course. But as much as it gets discussed, the option of trading Spurgeon or Scandella or Dumba or Brodin is a tough one. The option of losing one of those guys for nothing in expansion is far worse, and well within the realm of possibility.
There are some good things, but picking Tuch over Pastrnak or Fabbri seems unwise today. He's the number one prospect in the system and while I wouldn't say he's struggling to adjust to pro hockey, neither is he dominating the competition.
I like JEE, but I don't think he projects as a Kopitar/Toews/Koivu caliber guy. Kunin has limitations as well.
The brightest spot now is a strong group of goalie prospects - all of them doing very well in their respective leagues, for what that's worth.
There are positives in the pipeline - Kaprizov obviously and Greenway - but this is a middling group.
The young core right now is only Brodin and Coyle - U25 guys with long-term deals - and we'll see what happens with the rest of the guys as Fletch juggles upcoming contracts. It won't be easy. And I'll maintain today as I have for years that this team should have kept Larsson and those picks and continued with patience rather than buy high.
Dickie Dunn
Registered User
I don't think it's doom and gloom to worry about the cap, expansion draft, Parise's play long term and lack of high end talent.
Especially with a guy at the helm who hasn't really solved much to date.
Consider me nervous and semi-expecting a rebuild in 3 years.
Especially with a guy at the helm who hasn't really solved much to date.
Consider me nervous and semi-expecting a rebuild in 3 years.
I agree with picking Tuch over those guys was dumb. That's what happens when you draft size over skill.
Why don't you think Eriksson Ek projects as a Kopitar/Toews/Koivu caliber guy?
What excatly do you think Kunin limitations are?
Meh if the prospects during out how they're supposed to and this very much wishful thinking that Kaprizov comes and is that guy. They should be fine. They will probably need defense in three years though.
ThatGuy22
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2011
- 10,521
- 4,206
It's doom and gloom when you ignore all the good things that are happening with the Wild this season, and focus exclusively on things that basically can't be helped and the fact that most teams have similiar problems.
Cap Problems: Wild are 13th in available Cap Space with 21 teams having less than 2 million. Things will be tight next year, but they will be for most teams and every one will be RFA's not exactly at risk for an offersheet. Not the end of the world
Expansion Draft: Yes, it will suck to lose a good player for nothing. But few team's are better equipped to handle that lose than the Wild.
Parise: His longterm health will always be a concern, such is life with a long term contract. His on ice play has been fine. His underlying numbers are all actually at 4 year highs. Just shooting 5% at evens instead of his normal 9 or 10%. He'll even out.
High End Talent: Always going to be a concern, until we get some. But it's hard to get that talent, and Fletcher has done a good job of creating depth to over-come it. Wild are scoring in the top third of the league. Scoring more than those teams with "high end talent" in St. Louis and Winnipeg.
nickschultzfan
Registered User
- Jan 7, 2009
- 11,558
- 908
Where is the "Meh" option?
Our D depth is going to get us into the playoffs. Our O ceiling is not going to take us much farther than that.
At times it seems like we are 1 legit scoring threat away from a Cup.
At other times, it's like we are 3 high-end offensive players away from just reaching the Finals.
Our D depth is going to get us into the playoffs. Our O ceiling is not going to take us much farther than that.
At times it seems like we are 1 legit scoring threat away from a Cup.
At other times, it's like we are 3 high-end offensive players away from just reaching the Finals.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
$12.3M in space next summer, not considering any increase or losing salary via expansion.
Let's say Scandella is the odd one out and the cap goes up by $1M (1.37%):
Extra $5M in cap space, so now $17.3M to work with;
Nino and Granlund get ~$5M each; should be their absolute max based on their prior years and how they're trending so far this year ($7.3M remaining);
With how close Eriksson Ek was to making the team this year, I'd be pretty shocked if he wasn't a full time NHLer next year, which would make Haula expendable if he's looking for $3M+. So let's say that he's willing to take ~$2.5M. That and Eriksson Ek's $925k = $3.425M ($3.9M remaining with Haula, $6.4M remaining without);
Now, filling out the defense w/o Scandella will be Folin (say, $1.5M) and one of Reilly/Olofsson (neither should get more than $1M) and Prosser comes back at league minimum of $600k. ($3.1 total, so $800k with Haula in the lineup, $3.3M without him);
Nino - Staal - Coyle
Zucker - Koivu - Granlund
Parise - Haula - Pominville
Graovac - Eriksson Ek - Stewart
Suter - Spurgeon/Dumba
Brodin - Folin
Olofsson/Reilly - Dumba/Spurgeon
Prosser
Dubnyk
So $800k left for a 13th forward and a backup goalie. Not enough room if the cap only goes up by the $1M, so something else would have to be done.
If no Haula, Eriksson Ek moves up to the 3rd line, and we have $3.3M to find two 4th line players and a backup goalie.
Minnewildsota
He who laughs last thinks slowest
- Jun 7, 2010
- 8,732
- 3,018
Yes, but if you take away all those numbers and logic. You'll be left feeling sad.
HollaHaula
Cynical Wild fan
- Jul 28, 2015
- 860
- 280
The problems with this lineup are:
1. Ek should not be on the 4th line as it's not good for his development. He should be at least a 3C.
2. 1LW and 2nd line wingers are pretty meh to bad.
- Nino has all the tools to be a 1LW but he doesn't seem to have a big enough toolbox. Zucker also isn't consistent enough for a 2nd line spot.
Honestly, I would let go of Granlund after this season. I like him but he just doesn't bring enough to the table for the contract he will be asking for. Moving Koivu would also spark my interest (even though he's only signed for 1 more year) as he's not a $6.75 million player anymore. We could find cheaper and faster options at center.
I would be really happy to see the center depth look like:
1C - Staal
2C - Ek
3C - Koivu/or a fast, playmaker
4C - Haula
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
Nino had top 30 winger stats last year and is currently pacing what would've been top 20, ~24 goals and ~51 points. Both the tools and toolbox are there.
Re: Granlund, I guess it depends on what he's asking for; I used $5M as the absolute max. Right now he's pacing ~17 goals and ~48 points. Those numbers would've been top 30 points-wise and top 40 goals-wise at either wing position last year. His 44 points last year were top 30 at either wing position. If he's willing to accept something around $4.25M, I think the value is good. I'd offer 4 x $4.25M = $17M. Gets him paid fairly right now and he still hits another contract before he turns 30.
Whats the context here.
Almost 0 chance of a serious cup team going forward. This may be out best chance. Vets will only age. Parise is here forever and i doubt he ever plays 75 games or more a year. Looking like none of Coyle, Nino, Granny, Dumba, Brodin will take the next step to top 15 at their position.
Going forward i give this team a 90% + chance to be in the playoffs for years to come. All of our elder talent have secondary roles. Parise works harder than anyone in the league. Koivu still killing it in the dots. Suter is just solid in the best way. All of Coyle, Nino, Haula, Granny, Dumba, Brodin can play top 6/4 minutes.
For me it all hinges on adding that missing piece. An elite young talent. Plucked in a late round or a major trade deadline deal.
The diamond in the rough is one i do not see. Not talking a Haula late rounder. We need a Zetterberg or Pavleski late rounder. Or even the Shea Weber second rounder.
The block buster trade. Its a big risk. Late season trades don't always work out wonders and game do not translate across systems. Its too a high a risk for the reward. I am talking prospects and picks to get that Stamkos.
I dont think we are in a bad place. Not in a good place either.
Almost 0 chance of a serious cup team going forward. This may be out best chance. Vets will only age. Parise is here forever and i doubt he ever plays 75 games or more a year. Looking like none of Coyle, Nino, Granny, Dumba, Brodin will take the next step to top 15 at their position.
Going forward i give this team a 90% + chance to be in the playoffs for years to come. All of our elder talent have secondary roles. Parise works harder than anyone in the league. Koivu still killing it in the dots. Suter is just solid in the best way. All of Coyle, Nino, Haula, Granny, Dumba, Brodin can play top 6/4 minutes.
For me it all hinges on adding that missing piece. An elite young talent. Plucked in a late round or a major trade deadline deal.
The diamond in the rough is one i do not see. Not talking a Haula late rounder. We need a Zetterberg or Pavleski late rounder. Or even the Shea Weber second rounder.
The block buster trade. Its a big risk. Late season trades don't always work out wonders and game do not translate across systems. Its too a high a risk for the reward. I am talking prospects and picks to get that Stamkos.
I dont think we are in a bad place. Not in a good place either.
DANOZ28
Registered User
as for tuch, compare to coyles SLOW development. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=127797 (coyle stats) as for this year & the next 2 seasons im concerned we stay a middle of the pack team. 3 seasons from now a new wave of prospects should be ready to make an impact. i've given up on gmcf for past mistakes. if we make the playoffs he probably keeps his job.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
I wouldn't sell Coyle short yet. Currently pacing 31 goals and 58 points. Would've been 5th in goals, 12th in points last year; 4th in goals and 14th in points the year before; 3rd in goals and 17th in points the year before that.
Dickie Dunn
Registered User
If you define future as tomorrow, cool. But everything you summarized adds up to meh at best.
I'm naturally an optimist, so I voted for "pretty good". However, if history teaches us anything, it's that a relatively good crop of prospects may not pan out anywhere near hype and expectations.
The NHL is such a "what have you done lately for me" league. Because of this, the so-called "window" that can be projected for future success is hardly an objective measure.
Here's how I would measure the long-term health of a team:
1) Projected cap committed with associated player production. (--)
2) Tradeable assets to recover cap and/or prospects and picks. (-)
3) Prospects drafted, and the quality of such. (++)
4) The affinity for positive drafting and free agent acquisition. (++)
In short, I believe we have management that has proven they can find talent in the draft (no matter the round). Is it elite talent, no, but quality prospects so far.
My single biggest fear is that our cap committed vs. player production will be so inflated, that the only way to remain competitive will be to rush our quality prospects into the NHL.
In a sense, Fletcher's fate may be tied directly to that of the Canadian dollar. The longer the cap ceiling remains stagnant, the longer his contracts will reek of poor value (as will others around the league).
So if the team is locked in a stalemate between aging players (with high caps) vs. younger players (with low caps); the way out will be to maximize value. Which thus far, is proving to be difficult. So what about the mechanisms that can maximize value:
1) GM negotiating contracts (-)
2) Iowa development system (--)
3) NHL coaching (+) / I would give two plus marks here, but feel that Yeo hindered our prospect development.
So... we either have to find a prospect that can bypass our value "maximizers" so immediately, that value is readily available; OR, we improve our ability to increase the value of our players.
Anyways, my apology for the rant. Just a stream of thought so if it's TL;DR... no problem!
The NHL is such a "what have you done lately for me" league. Because of this, the so-called "window" that can be projected for future success is hardly an objective measure.
Here's how I would measure the long-term health of a team:
1) Projected cap committed with associated player production. (--)
2) Tradeable assets to recover cap and/or prospects and picks. (-)
3) Prospects drafted, and the quality of such. (++)
4) The affinity for positive drafting and free agent acquisition. (++)
In short, I believe we have management that has proven they can find talent in the draft (no matter the round). Is it elite talent, no, but quality prospects so far.
My single biggest fear is that our cap committed vs. player production will be so inflated, that the only way to remain competitive will be to rush our quality prospects into the NHL.
In a sense, Fletcher's fate may be tied directly to that of the Canadian dollar. The longer the cap ceiling remains stagnant, the longer his contracts will reek of poor value (as will others around the league).
So if the team is locked in a stalemate between aging players (with high caps) vs. younger players (with low caps); the way out will be to maximize value. Which thus far, is proving to be difficult. So what about the mechanisms that can maximize value:
1) GM negotiating contracts (-)
2) Iowa development system (--)
3) NHL coaching (+) / I would give two plus marks here, but feel that Yeo hindered our prospect development.
So... we either have to find a prospect that can bypass our value "maximizers" so immediately, that value is readily available; OR, we improve our ability to increase the value of our players.
Anyways, my apology for the rant. Just a stream of thought so if it's TL;DR... no problem!
- Status
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
Game 3 Belleville Senators @ Cleveland Monsters - Series tied 1-1Wagers: 2Staked: $5,025.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Game 3 Providence Bruins @ Hartford Wolf Pack - Series tied 1-1Wagers: 2Staked: $50.00Event closes
- Updated:
-
Game 3 Hershey Bears @ Lehigh Valley Phantoms - Hershey Bears leads series 2-0Wagers: 3Staked: $2,590.00Event closes
- Updated:
-
