How different would Toronto be if they won the 2015 draft lottery?

[LeafsNation75]

April 18, 2015 was the night of the 2015 draft lottery when the Oilers won the 1st overall pick and the right to select Connor McDavid. Once the results were known the media reported how during the 4th and final ball drawing the Maple Leafs had the best odds to get the 1st pick based on the first 3 numbers that were selected.

How the Maple Leafs almost got Connor McDavid - Sportsnet.ca





On January 1, 2016 there was an article in the Toronto Star that said on the 4th and final ball drawing that a #2 ball was about to be selected and it got knocked away by a #1 ball giving the Oilers the right combinations for the 1st pick.

NHL lottery: Leafs were bounce away from McDavid

ONE: If you look closely at the video of the bouncing balls, No. 2 — a Leaf number — is right there on the cusp of getting drawn. But it’s there a fraction of a second too soon. By the time the button is pressed to vacuum up the final ball, No. 1 has pushed No. 2 out of the way.

Oilers win. Remarkable. They’ll pick first overall for the fourth time in six seasons. Ryan Nugent Hopkins. Taylor Hall. Nail Yakupov. Now McDavid. The lottery gods have been good to them.

“They’ve got some luck,” Shanahan said that night. “Obviously everybody came here today hoping to get the gold ticket. The odds were stacked against most teams.”

So my question is this. Had Toronto got the 1st pick in 2015 how different do they look today? Obviously that means not selecting Mitch Marner 4th overall which is where their own 1st round pick ended up. Plus do the 2015-2016 Maple Leafs even with McDavid still finish last place overall like we actually saw happen? Keep in mind that year they had a total of 68 points which was high for a last place team, compared to the 2015 Buffalo Sabres who had 54 points or the Colorado Avalanche in 2017 who had 48 points.

I also know that in reality the 2016 Edmonton Oilers finished just ahead of Toronto with 69 points for second last overall, however that year McDavid got injured and only played 48 games. Although in this scenario if the Oilers never had McDavid in 2016 chances are they might finish last place overall and get the 1st pick in 2016 which was Auston Matthews, since we know Toronto won it with the number combinations assigned to the last place overall team.

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[The Panther]

I have to think the Leafs would be better off now than they are, a bit. First of all, McDavid is better than Marner. Second, having McDavid emerging as a superstar right from the first season (2015-16) likely would have (so I think) pushed Babcock and his old-school system out the door a year or two earlier because the organization would have been keen to establish that 'new identity' that much earlier. Third, although the Leafs might not have got Matthews, having McDavid and his reasonable salary -- vs. Marner's absurd entitlement and over-payment -- would have freed up a couple million to spend on another top-six forward, even if the replacement pick for Matthews wasn't very good (and, who knows, it might have been great).

 

[LeafsNation75]

I have to think the Leafs would be better off now than they are, a bit. First of all, McDavid is better than Marner. Second, having McDavid emerging as a superstar right from the first season (2015-16) likely would have (so I think) pushed Babcock and his old-school system out the door a year or two earlier because the organization would have been keen to establish that 'new identity' that much earlier. Third, although the Leafs might not have got Matthews, having McDavid and his reasonable salary -- vs. Marner's absurd entitlement and over-payment -- would have freed up a couple million to spend on another top-six forward, even if the replacement pick for Matthews wasn't very good (and, who knows, it might have been great).

Without a doubt McDavid is better than Marner, in fact McDavid is the best player in the whole NHL. So even if you take out Marner and his contract and for argument skate the Leafs don't draft Matthews 1st overall in 2016, do they still eventually sign John Tavares to his current contract?

 

[alko]

Without a doubt McDavid is better than Marner, in fact McDavid is the best player in the whole NHL. So even if you take out Marner and his contract and for argument skate the Leafs don't draft Matthews 1st overall in 2016, do they still eventually sign John Tavares to his current contract?

No. They would seek after top offensive D. Hello Mike Green!

 

[buffalowing88]

I'd be more interested to see what they do with Eichel. Probably a lot more than out pathetic franchise has.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'd be more interested to see what they do with Eichel. Probably a lot more than out pathetic franchise has.

Based on the 2015 draft lottery rules at the time Toronto had no chance of selecting Eichel. Remember they only had 1 drawing to determine who got the 1st pick, so it's not like today where they draw for the 1st, 2nd and, 3rd picks.

 

[Bluesguru]

Not much cause Shanahan would screw it up anyway. Toronto had a good thing going until they tried to accelerate things and sign Tavares. Leafs are a Rubik’s cube now.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not much cause Shanahan would screw it up anyway. Toronto had a good thing going until they tried to accelerate things and sign Tavares. Leafs are a Rubik’s cube now.

After Toronto won the draft lottery in 2016 and selected Auston Matthews 1st overall, their management team at least meet with Steven Stamkos to talk about him possibly signing with the Leafs if he became a UFA on July 1, 2016. Obviously it was better he re-signed in Tampa Bay since no one knew how Toronto would be during the 2016-2017 season, since Matthews and Marner had 0 NHL games played and Nylander only had 22 career NHL games played at that time. Plus no one thought they would have made the playoffs that year. So you can see why they went after Tavares.

 

[Stephen]

I could see a plausible scenario where the Leafs have McDavid, Matthews if they are still lucky enough to win the 2016 draft lottery, and a plausible shot at Stamkos at the 2016 off season. If they aren't lucky and don't get Matthews in 2016, it could be any one of Laine, Tkachuk, Dubois, Puljujarvi, maybe even Sergachev...

 

[LeafsNation75]

I could see a plausible scenario where the Leafs have McDavid, Matthews if they are still lucky enough to win the 2016 draft lottery, and a plausible shot at Stamkos at the 2016 off season. If they aren't lucky and don't get Matthews in 2016, it could be any one of Laine, Tkachuk, Dubois, Puljujarvi, maybe even Sergachev...

Like I said before in reality we saw the Oilers finish with 69 points that was just 1 point ahead of the Leafs for last place overall, however I'm sure part of that was because McDavid only played 48 games.

So if you put McDavid on the 2016 Maple Leafs and let's assume he played all 82 games do they still finish in last place overall? Remember that the winning lottery numbers were 6-8-5-13 and they were assigned to Toronto for finishing last place overall, so whoever had finished last that season was going to get the 1st overall pick in 2016.

 

[Stephen]

Like I said before in reality we saw the Oilers finish with 69 points that was just 1 point ahead of the Leafs for last place overall, however I'm sure part of that was because McDavid only played 48 games.

So if you put McDavid on the 2016 Maple Leafs and let's assume he played all 82 games do they still finish in last place overall? Remember that the winning lottery numbers were 6-8-5-13 and they were assigned to Toronto for finishing last place overall, so whoever had finished last that season was going to get the 1st overall pick in 2016.

I remember leading up to the 2016 draft lottery the whole world was resigned to the idea of Edmonton winning the lottery once again.

McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, all together at once.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I remember leading up to the 2016 draft lottery the whole world was resigned to the idea of Edmonton winning the lottery once again.

McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, all together at once.

If Edmonton had finished last place in 2016 than they would have got Matthews 1st overall along with McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins. Like I previously said Toronto was last place overall with 68 points and Edmonton finished with 69 points. So that's how close it came to becoming a reality.

If anything Toronto winning the 1st pick in 2016 was retrabution for how Edmonton got the 1st pick in 2015, since it was said how close the Leafs were to getting McDavid.

 

[Stephen]

If Edmonton had finished last place in 2016 than they would have got Matthews 1st overall along with McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins. Like I previously said Toronto was last place overall with 68 points and Edmonton finished with 69 points. So that's how close it came to becoming a reality.

If anything Toronto winning the 1st pick in 2016 was retrabution for how Edmonton got the 1st pick in 2015, since it was said how close the Leafs were to getting McDavid.

Edmonton really ruined things for Arizona and Buffalo. Good thing we got Matthews in the end.

 

[Voight]

Not much cause Shanahan would screw it up anyway. Toronto had a good thing going until they tried to accelerate things and sign Tavares. Leafs are a Rubik’s cube now.

Did they need Tavares? Not necessarily.

But if you have the chance to sign an elite #1C.... you do it every. single. time.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Edmonton really ruined things for Arizona and Buffalo. Good thing we got Matthews in the end.

It's too bad Toronto couldn't have ruined things for Buffalo and Arizona, however I do agree it was great that Toronto was able to draft Matthews.

 

[82Ninety42011]

I could see a plausible scenario where the Leafs have McDavid, Matthews if they are still lucky enough to win the 2016 draft lottery, and a plausible shot at Stamkos at the 2016 off season. If they aren't lucky and don't get Matthews in 2016, it could be any one of Laine, Tkachuk, Dubois, Puljujarvi, maybe even Sergachev...

They dodged a bullet there !!

 

[MarkusKetterer]

It's too bad Toronto couldn't have ruined things for Buffalo and Arizona, however I do agree it was great that Toronto was able to draft Matthews.

I miss the conspiracy theories about how Toronto was gonna get McDavid and Arizona Matthews. Imagine if that actually happened.

 

[wetcoast]

I have to think the Leafs would be better off now than they are, a bit. First of all, McDavid is better than Marner. Second, having McDavid emerging as a superstar right from the first season (2015-16) likely would have (so I think) pushed Babcock and his old-school system out the door a year or two earlier because the organization would have been keen to establish that 'new identity' that much earlier. Third, although the Leafs might not have got Matthews, having McDavid and his reasonable salary -- vs. Marner's absurd entitlement and over-payment -- would have freed up a couple million to spend on another top-six forward, even if the replacement pick for Matthews wasn't very good (and, who knows, it might have been great).

Sure McDavid is better than Marner but would the Leafs then been able to select Matthews in 2016?

 

[LeafsNation75]

I miss the conspiracy theories about how Toronto was gonna get McDavid and Arizona Matthews. Imagine if that actually happened.

Going into the final ball drawing for the 2016 1st overall pick, the Coyotes had the same odds as the Maple Leafs.

Canadiens draft lottery near-miss on Matthews really stings now - Sportsnet.ca

A list of the potential winning combinations in the NHL’s 2016 draft lottery prior to the last ball being picked

6-8-5-1 (Wpg)
6-8-5-2 (CBJ)
6-8-5-3 (Ari)
6-8-5-4 (Wpg)
6-8-5-7 (Mtl)
6-8-5-9 (Buf)
6-8-5-10 (Edm)
6-8-5-11 (Col)
6-8-5-12 (CBJ)
6-8-5-13 (Tor)
6-8-5-14 (Edm)

 

[The Panther]

Sure McDavid is better than Marner but would the Leafs then been able to select Matthews in 2016?

I addressed that in the very post of mine that you quoted.

 

[wetcoast]

I addressed that in the very post of mine that you quoted.

Sure mentioned it but maybe the Leags end up with Olli or Poop party and free agents always command a premium price as well.

But we will never know.