How can a guy be 15 times a Norris trophy finalist and never win a Hart?

[The Panther]

it is weird to me that defencemen, the best of which probably influence more of the game than stars of any other position, are so chronically underrepresented in MVP voting. by definition, they should be dominating the hart trophy.

It's true. But there's an easy way to correct that -- eliminate the Norris trophy from existence!

Doing so would probably result in a Dman winning the Hart every 2nd or 3rd season.

it’s also odd that dmen are less underrepresented in conn smythe voting.

Yes, 12 out of 54 Conn Smythes (22%) have gone to Dmen, and another 17 (31%) have gone to goalies. It means that only 47% of Conn Smythes have gone to forwards.

Conversely, only 13 of 99 Hart trophies (13%) have been awarded to D, while 78 (79%) have gone to forwards. And only 4 (!) of the 69 Harts have been awarded to Dmen (Orr x 3; Pronger x 1) since the Norris was first awarded in 1954 -- that's a miserable 5.7% while the Norris has existed. It's a massive discrepancy.

It's quite obvious, then, that since 1953-54, most NHL award voters have placed MVP-type Dmen into the "Norris" category while prioritizing forwards for the Hart.

 

[FerrisRox]

I don't understand the basic premise here. Why would all of those Norris nominations somehow mean he should win a Hart Trophy?

 

[Voight]

As it is, he lost by a hair. It wasn't a blowout.

I think Mess having his best offensive season to date, without Gretzky on his team really swung a lot of votes his way. He showed that he could be the straw that stirred the drink.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

it is weird to me that defencemen, the best of which probably influence more of the game than stars of any other position, are so chronically underrepresented in MVP voting. by definition, they should be dominating the hart trophy.

it’s also odd that dmen are less underrepresented in conn smythe voting.

by my tally, these were years where i could have had a dman win:

1990: bourque
1995: coffey
2000: pronger
2003: macinnis
2017: karlsson
2024: hughes

and here are my plausible dman conn smythes, though not every one of these guys would have been my first pick:

1989: macinnis
1992: chelios
1994: leetch
1995: stevens
1997: lidstrom
2000: stevens
2002: lidstrom
2003: niedermayer
2006: pronger
2010: keith
2011: chara
2012: doughty
2013: keith
2014: doughty
2015: keith
2016: letang
2020: hedman
2022: makar

so weird that there wasn’t a hart-worthy season by a dman between 2003 and 2017, but every conn smythe between 2010 and 2016 could have gone to a dman and i wouldn’t have blinked.

I'd add Pietrangelo 2019 to the conn smythe list but it doesnt change your overall point.

For 2003-2017 (not coincidentally the prime of Crosby-Ovechkin-Malkin) it was a combo of factors. Obviously those 3 were elevated as being easily the best players in the league and took up the majority of the press attention. Also defensive excellence from a defender is underappreciated in terms of Hart consideration. Without eye popping offense, no defender has a chance at the trophy anymore and the great defenders of that time while not useless on offense weren't going to light it up like Coffey/Bourque.

 

[daver]

The market seems to indicate that forwards are the most valuable commodity. Is it any surprise that an elite forward wins awards over elite d-men and goalies?

NHL Rankings

Listing the top salaries, cap-hits, contracts, bonuses, and more for all active NHL players.

www.spotrac.com

 

[overpass]

it is weird to me that defencemen, the best of which probably influence more of the game than stars of any other position, are so chronically underrepresented in MVP voting. by definition, they should be dominating the hart trophy.

it’s also odd that dmen are less underrepresented in conn smythe voting.

by my tally, these were years where i could have had a dman win:

1990: bourque
1995: coffey
2000: pronger
2003: macinnis
2017: karlsson
2024: hughes

and here are my plausible dman conn smythes, though not every one of these guys would have been my first pick:

1989: macinnis
1992: chelios
1994: leetch
1995: stevens
1997: lidstrom
2000: stevens
2002: lidstrom
2003: niedermayer
2006: pronger
2010: keith
2011: chara
2012: doughty
2013: keith
2014: doughty
2015: keith
2016: letang
2020: hedman
2022: makar

so weird that there wasn’t a hart-worthy season by a dman between 2003 and 2017, but every conn smythe between 2010 and 2016 could have gone to a dman and i wouldn’t have blinked.

Add 2007 (Niedermayer/Pronger)

I think the Conn Smythe point is very important for the value of defencemen. I would suggest there are two reasons that hockey writers seem to value and vote more for defencemen in the playoffs than in the regular season.

First, maybe top defencemen are actually more valuable in the playoffs. Forwards have scoring stats to motivate them game in and game out for 82 games. The motivation for defencemen to bring their best every night is less clear. I saw Erik Karlsson play the best hockey of his career in the playoffs. He never gave that same consistent effort over 82 games. I'm not a West Coast guy but I understand you could probably say the same about Drew Doughty.

Second, the nature of a playoff series, with repeated games against the same opponent and custom adjustments, matchups, scouting, and game plans, may allow top defencemen to be more valuable than in a one-off regular season game.

Third, maybe top defencemen were that valuable all along in the regular season but the voters only saw a few games and end up deferring to the statistical record, especially goals and points scored by forwards. In the playoffs, voters have watched more, maybe all the games, and I think they are more comfortable going beyond the stats in the Conn Smythe conversation.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Third, maybe top defencemen were that valuable all along in the regular season but the voters only saw a few games and end up deferring to the statistical record, especially goals and points scored by forwards. In the playoffs, voters have watched more, maybe all the games, and I think they are more comfortable going beyond the stats in the Conn Smythe conversation.

this feels super plausible to me, and a good reason why we can easily identify 2003 niedermayer or 2016 letang as conn smythe worthy but i am struggling to think of a year where, say, lidstrom could have won a hart. how many detroit games did i see every year before april?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Should start with the 5 times he won the Norris, as the years he finished 2nd or 3rd would be obvious as to why he didn't win the Hart.

Then work from there.

1987 - Gretzky
1988 - Lemieux
1990 - Messier
1991 - Hull
1994 - Federov

Personally, I'm not a big believer in players getting one because it's "their turn" or any sort of lifetime achievement award for great players that haven't gotten one yet.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Should start with the 5 times he won the Norris, as the years he finished 2nd or 3rd would be obvious as to why he didn't win the Hart.

Then work from there.

1987 - Gretzky
1988 - Lemieux
1990 - Messier
1991 - Hull
1994 - Federov

Personally, I'm not a big believer in players getting one because it's "their turn" or any sort of lifetime achievement award for great players that haven't gotten one yet.

Irony being that's what Messier's 90 Hart win was. "Gretzky is gone and they didnt fall apart, it's Mark's turn to get one"

 

[MadLuke]

Yes, 12 out of 54 Conn Smythes (22%) have gone to Dmen, and another 17 (31%) have gone to goalies. It means that only 47% of Conn Smythes have gone to forwards.

For goaltender it is more easy to understand they go from playing a subset of game in the regular season to all of them in the playoff and how dominant an hot streak from a goaltender can be for a team will be very spectacular and visible.

Dmen winning conn smythe more than Hart become less obvious, one possible reason having a Norris and no trophy for best forwarrd indeed create a bias (how could it not) in voter mind.

If all voters saw all the games of the last 2 rounds involving potential winners we can imagine, statistics become less important.

A bit like goaltender, Smythe winning D in the playoff play more than in the regular season.

Keith in 2015 played 31:07 minutes a night versus 20:54 for Toews and 20:24 for Kane
In the regular season
Keith: 25:34, Kane: 19:51, Toews: 19:34

With how overtime work we can expect everyone to play more obviously, but Keith Smythe like performance tend to come with ridiculously more ice time than the forward, more than in the regular season, making it straitforward in that way that their relative mvp status for their team went up versus the regular season, a bit like for goaltender.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Was it "Mark's turn"...? Messier was never once considered a serious contender for the Hart in his career up to that point...he got three 3rd place votes in 1987 for reasons unknown (career high in points?). But it's not like he was close and just never got one and here was the chance...

He was never close. For what little it's worth, the players also gave him the Pearson that year. Unclear if he was ever close for that before because that's the only thing the Union doesn't want t be made public for whatever reason...

 

[wetcoast]

Here are the Top Ten Hart finishes by the best d-men in the post-Orr era (Norris wins in parathesis):

Bourque (5) - 2, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8, 10

Potvin (3) - 2, 4, 7, 7, 9, 9

Lidstrom (7) - 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Karlsson (3) - 5, 8, 9, 9

Chelios (3) - 5, 7, 10

Coffey (3) - 4. 4, 10

Neidermayer (1) - 8, 9

Pronger (1) - 1

Keith (2) - N/A

Bourque really stands out here. Lidstrom underwhelms but you could argue that he was on great teams so he wasn't as "valuable". Potvin's Hart record would counter this argument though.

Potvin had Hart finishes of 7,2,9,7,4 in his 2nd to 6th years in the league before the dynasty and somehow finished 9th in 79-80 when he played in only 31 games.

That being said Potvin was really that good in his first 7 years then became just a really good regular season performer and one of the best playoff performers in the league over the next 4 years.

Aside from Orr no Dman hit the ground running like Potvin did and really Makar isn't even really that close just to put it in perspective.

Injuries and Persson cutting into his point totals a bit on that well balanced NYI team perhaps diminished exactly how good Potvin still was though.

Have Hart voters moved away from rating D-men higher in voting since the '90s?

Karlsson seems to have gotten a reasonable amount of Hart recognition based on his Norris wins so perhaps not.

And Pronger won a Hart during Lidstrom's prime so there's that too.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Add 2007 (Niedermayer/Pronger)

I think the Conn Smythe point is very important for the value of defencemen. I would suggest there are two reasons that hockey writers seem to value and vote more for defencemen in the playoffs than in the regular season.

First, maybe top defencemen are actually more valuable in the playoffs. Forwards have scoring stats to motivate them game in and game out for 82 games. The motivation for defencemen to bring their best every night is less clear. I saw Erik Karlsson play the best hockey of his career in the playoffs. He never gave that same consistent effort over 82 games. I'm not a West Coast guy but I understand you could probably say the same about Drew Doughty.

Second, the nature of a playoff series, with repeated games against the same opponent and custom adjustments, matchups, scouting, and game plans, may allow top defencemen to be more valuable than in a one-off regular season game.

Third, maybe top defencemen were that valuable all along in the regular season but the voters only saw a few games and end up deferring to the statistical record, especially goals and points scored by forwards. In the playoffs, voters have watched more, maybe all the games, and I think they are more comfortable going beyond the stats in the Conn Smythe conversation.

Outside of the 1 or 2 cases where it wasn't, Conn Smythe is fundamentally "MVP of the Stanley Cup Winning Team"

If Hart Trophy were "MVP of the President's Trophy Winner", then I imagine you'd see more D-Men Hart winners. Same and even more dramatically so with Goaltenders which is why you see a lot of Goalie Smythes and not a lot of Goalie Harts (4 in like the last 60 years).

 

[wetcoast]

Was it "Mark's turn"...? Messier was never once considered a serious contender for the Hart in his career up to that point...he got three 3rd place votes in 1987 for reasons unknown (career high in points?). But it's not like he was close and just never got one and here was the chance...

He was never close. For what little it's worth, the players also gave him the Pearson that year. Unclear if he was ever close for that before because that's the only thing the Union doesn't want t be made public for whatever reason...

Also it was a weird year Yzerman had a decent case except his team missed the playoffs as did LA and Pittsburg and Mario missed too many games and even Wayne only played in 73.

Sometimes opportunities open up but it's still a miss.

People put too much stock in actual winners and lose the focus of players who had great seasons, voting results aside.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Add 2007 (Niedermayer/Pronger)

I think the Conn Smythe point is very important for the value of defencemen. I would suggest there are two reasons that hockey writers seem to value and vote more for defencemen in the playoffs than in the regular season.

First, maybe top defencemen are actually more valuable in the playoffs. Forwards have scoring stats to motivate them game in and game out for 82 games. The motivation for defencemen to bring their best every night is less clear. I saw Erik Karlsson play the best hockey of his career in the playoffs. He never gave that same consistent effort over 82 games. I'm not a West Coast guy but I understand you could probably say the same about Drew Doughty.

Second, the nature of a playoff series, with repeated games against the same opponent and custom adjustments, matchups, scouting, and game plans, may allow top defencemen to be more valuable than in a one-off regular season game.

Third, maybe top defencemen were that valuable all along in the regular season but the voters only saw a few games and end up deferring to the statistical record, especially goals and points scored by forwards. In the playoffs, voters have watched more, maybe all the games, and I think they are more comfortable going beyond the stats in the Conn Smythe conversation.

All valid points. I was going to write a post about your 3rd paragraph. For me, seeing defensemen get so much more consideration for the Smythe than the Hart suggests that, when forced to pay attention, voters can actually tell the value of a strong #1 defenseman. It's not too difficult to see when you're closely watching someone play over 6-8 weeks. But it's much tougher to do that over the course of a long regular season (so voters will rely more on stats, and defense is the toughest position to evaluate statistically).

Another observation - we've seen good (but not great) goalies go on a hot streak and win the Smythe (Giguere, Quick, Ward, Ranford, Hextall, etc). We've also seen good forwards win the trophy (C. Lemieux, Goring, Williams, Leach, O'Reilly, etc). But every single defenseman who's ever won the Conn Smythe is a Hall of Fame (and not even a borderline HOF'er like Nieuwendyk or Vernon). I think this speaks to the demands of being a #1 D. A goalie can be sheltered by his team and/or play unusually well for a few months. A forward can get some good bounces over 20 games. But being the #1 defenseman is such a demanding and exposed role, it's tough for even a "Hall of Very Good" level blueliner to fake it for eight weeks.

 

[VanIslander]

Making the playoff in 21 of 22 seasons, averaging 30+ minutes a night, most years voted one of the greatest defensemen...

Never MVP.

The only explanation is defensemen aren't as valuable as forwards. Or, sizzle sells the steak.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Conversely, maybe Bourque shouldn't have been a 15x Norris finalist

Also, a far more plausible explanation is that the complexities or subtleties of being a d-man is lost on many writers.

But like H.O. astutely noted above, it's generally only very elite d-men that can win this award.

The only legitimate Hart winner on defense since the War (and advent of the Norris Trophy) is Orr (3x). Pronger is not really a legit legit winner, he eeked one out because by half a penny because Jagr missed a quarter of the year. From the looks of it, Jagr was one shift away from winning that one.

Three of the first eight Smythes went to d-men. A ton of the first Harts went to d-men. As there was more to track, d-men fell out of favor for high scoring forwards. When there were more "complex" situations, writers just defaulted it to undeserving goalies (instead of two-ways forwards like Fedorov in '97, Brind'Amour in '06, or Krejci in '11...worse, any defense-first player is basically not on the table, like Seidenberg should have been in '11).

A #1 d-man is the most important thing any team can have. Forget awards, who has consistently won without an elite #1 d-man? The mid 70's Flyers and basically no other noteworthy group of players in history...

 

[The Panther]

Irony being that's what Messier's 90 Hart win was. "Gretzky is gone and they didnt fall apart, it's Mark's turn to get one"

Pretty silly comment.

There was certainly some narrative there (as there almost always is, with the Hart) in temrs of Messier leading the team in all areas that season.

But your suggestion that it was a "career capper" kind of award is silly. Messier had never been close to the Hart before, and also Bourque had been around as long as Messier, so there's no reason one would've gained sympathy for a career capper more than the other.

You may have forgotten that the previous post-Gretzky season, 1988-89, the Oilers had been quite bad after late November, and then had been eliminated in round one. Messier had been just okay, playing a bit below bar, getting suspended, and essentially being the team's second center (behind Jimmy Carson).

Messier won the 1989-90 Hart because he was the best forward in the NHL that season, and it was quite easily the best season of his entire career.

(For the record, I'm a huge Bourque fan and would also have been very happy to see Bourque win it. But let's not pretend Messier didn't deserve it at least equally.)

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

All valid points. I was going to write a post about your 3rd paragraph. For me, seeing defensemen get so much more consideration for the Smythe than the Hart suggests that, when forced to pay attention, voters can actually tell the value of a strong #1 defenseman. It's not too difficult to see when you're closely watching someone play over 6-8 weeks. But it's much tougher to do that over the course of a long regular season (so voters will rely more on stats, and defense is the toughest position to evaluate statistically).

Another observation - we've seen good (but not great) goalies go on a hot streak and win the Smythe (Giguere, Quick, Ward, Ranford, Hextall, etc). We've also seen good forwards win the trophy (C. Lemieux, Goring, Williams, Leach, O'Reilly, etc). But every single defenseman who's ever won the Conn Smythe is a Hall of Fame (and not even a borderline HOF'er like Nieuwendyk or Vernon). I think this speaks to the demands of being a #1 D. A goalie can be sheltered by his team and/or play unusually well for a few months. A forward can get some good bounces over 20 games. But being the #1 defenseman is such a demanding and exposed role, it's tough for even a "Hall of Very Good" level blueliner to fake it for eight weeks.

my team has never had a true number one dman until very recently, but i wonder: does every fanbase think their superstar dman that they watch game in, game out was robbed of a hart? i mean like the ryan suters and pietrangelos of the world.

or at least do detroit fans have a year where lidstrom should have won the hart? or LA with doughty? chicago with chelios and nj with stevens?

i ask because you cannot tell me anyone has been as valuable to his team this year than quinn hughes. he is everything to the canucks. like if you say mackinnon has been better than him i can accept that but not more valuable.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Was it "Mark's turn"...? Messier was never once considered a serious contender for the Hart in his career up to that point...he got three 3rd place votes in 1987 for reasons unknown (career high in points?). But it's not like he was close and just never got one and here was the chance...

He was never close. For what little it's worth, the players also gave him the Pearson that year. Unclear if he was ever close for that before because that's the only thing the Union doesn't want t be made public for whatever reason...

my perception of the 1990 hart is they saw messier hit that superstar center 130 pt threshold and finish second in scoring, a couple ahead of peak yzerman and a good margin ahead of the pack (only yzerman and mario were within 15 pts of him), and it was like, holy crap maybe instead of gretzky helping messier score above his ability, gretzky was actually holding him back all those years.

obviously that was a spike year, but at the time one didn’t know. an imperfect comparison to say the least, but it’s a bit like if chicago traded kane in 2017 and then toews put up a 95 pt season.

ironically though, and on the topic of guys getting a “turn,” i think if voters could have know the 1992 season was coming, they would have gifen the hart to bourque and let messier wait for his new york year.

 

[FerrisRox]

The only explanation is defensemen aren't as valuable as forwards. Or, sizzle sells the steak.

Actually the only explanation was, despite being a legendary Hall-of-Fame defenseman, he was never, at any point in his career, the best player in the league.

This isn't a big mystery.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Cumulative stats look better over 82 than over a playoffs.

Kucherov put up per 82 game paces of
112
114
96

over three successive playoffs

The 2020-21 pace is enough for a Hart Trophy, but wasn't enough for a Conn Smythe.

I think there have been some post-Orr seasons where a defenseman winning the Hart is arguable, but the voting effect is what it is.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Cumulative stats look better over 82 than over a playoffs.

Kucherov put up per 82 game paces of
112
114
96

over three successive playoffs

The 2020-21 pace is enough for a Hart Trophy, but wasn't enough for a Conn Smythe.

I think there have been some post-Orr seasons where a defenseman winning the Hart is arguable, but the voting effect is what it is.

Has a player ever lead the postseason by as wide a margin as Kucherov did, been on the Stanley Cup winning team, and not been awarded the Conn Smythe before Kucherov? I think award voters are just biased against Kucherov. Not to say it wasn't strong competition with Vasilevskiy posting a .937 and 1.90. It would be extremely difficult for a goaltender to do that, alongside 57 wins (16 wins in 23 GP * 82) over an entire season. So goaltenders benefit a lot from the small sample size of a postseason run as their results don't necessarily normalize.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Has a player ever lead the postseason by as wide a margin as Kucherov did, been on the Stanley Cup winning team, and not been awarded the Conn Smythe before Kucherov? I think award voters are just biased against Kucherov. Not to say it wasn't strong competition with Vasilevskiy posting a .937 and 1.90. It would be extremely difficult for a goaltender to do that, alongside 57 wins (16 wins in 23 GP * 82) over an entire season. So goaltenders benefit a lot from the small sample size of a postseason run as their results don't necessarily normalize.

Gretzky in 84 and 87 are in the same realm, in that he lead the league/his team by a margin and did not win the Smythe. In 2020, Kucherov only lead by 1 point, teammate Point had more goals in 2 less games. But he did lead by 9 points in 2021.

1971
Mahovlich: 27 points (in on 36% of Habs goals)
Cournoyer: 22 points
Beliveau: 22 points
Dryden won the Smythe

1974
MacLeish: 22 points (in on 40.8% of Flyers goals)
Clarke: 16 points
Lonsberry: 13 points
Bernie Parent won the Conn Smythe

1981
Bossy: 35 points, including 17 goals (in on 36.1% on Islanders goals)
Trottier: 29 points
Potvin: 25 points
Goring: 20 points, won the Conn Smythe


1984
Gretzky: 35 points (in on 37.2% of Oilers goals)
Kurri: 28 points
Messier: 26 points, won the Conn Smythe

1987
Gretzky: 34 points (in on 39.1% of Oilers goals)
Propp: 28 points
Messier: 28 points
Hextall won the Smythe

2021
Kucherov: 32 points (in on 42.7% of Lightning goals)
Point: 23 points
Hedman: 18 points
Vasilevsky won the Conn Smythe

In most of these examples, it's a goalie that wins the Smythe.

From what I can see, Kucherov 2021 is the most offensively dominant performance on a Cup winning team to not result in a Conn Smythe.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Gretzky in 84 and 87 are in the same realm, in that he lead the league/his team by a margin and did not win the Smythe. In 2020, Kucherov only lead by 1 point, teammate Point had more goals in 2 less games. But he did lead by 9 points in 2021.

1971
Mahovlich: 27 points (in on 36% of Habs goals)
Cournoyer: 22 points
Beliveau: 22 points
Dryden won the Smythe

1974
MacLeish: 22 points (in on 40.8% of Flyers goals)
Clarke: 16 points
Lonsberry: 13 points
Bernie Parent won the Conn Smythe

1981
Bossy: 35 points, including 17 goals (in on 36.1% on Islanders goals)
Trottier: 29 points
Potvin: 25 points
Goring: 20 points, won the Conn Smythe


1984
Gretzky: 35 points (in on 37.2% of Oilers goals)
Kurri: 28 points
Messier: 26 points, won the Conn Smythe

1987
Gretzky: 34 points (in on 39.1% of Oilers goals)
Propp: 28 points
Messier: 28 points
Hextall won the Smythe

2021
Kucherov: 32 points (in on 42.7% of Lightning goals)
Point: 23 points
Hedman: 18 points
Vasilevsky won the Conn Smythe

In most of these examples, it's a goalie that wins the Smythe.

From what I can see, Kucherov 2021 is the most offensively dominant performance on a Cup winning team to not result in a Conn Smythe.

1970 Esposito is up there as well. Led the playoffs in goals, assists and points with 13-14-27 in 14 games. 27 points vs Orr's 20 (2nd in the league) was a 35% gap and in on 41.5% of the goals Boston scored.

Obviously is a very different situation than the others listed because it was against Orr and everything Orr brings to the table.