At this point, I would only trade up for (assuming Caleb goes #1) Maye or Daniels. Penix would be ok waiting at 11 for, or even trading up a couple spots, but not into the top 5. McCarthy isn't a first rounder to me, and would give me Ponder vibes. Both Penix and McCarthy have flaws, but Penix at least has the upside. The moment Cousins left and we signed Darnold I knew we had to find out 2024 starter in the draft. Hoping we trade into the top 5.
As for the Vikings being a great situation for a QB, trust me, I've definitely lamented how no great QB is available for a trade/FA the way Brady, Stafford, and Rodgers were in the last 5 years. Thought the latter 2 were in our division, so it's not like we could've gotten them anyway.
Manning and Brady were complete free agents. As was Cousins this off-season and how Dak will be in 2025 if he doesn't extend with Dallas as both Kirk and Dak had it in their contracts that they could not get tagged. Manning was cut due to Indy finishing dead last and having a shot at Luck, so they cut the neck injured Manning. Brady also had it in his contract that he could not get tagged.
Rodgers, Wilson, Stafford were traded. As you said, not likely to trade within divison if the team believes that the QB has gas left in the tank.
The trade targets are likely to be AZ and LAC. AZ, I would say is less likely due to them holding Houston's 1st and 3rd rounders this draft, so the extra draft capital isn't as needed on their end. I'm assuming they are keeping Kyler. Thus, likely to draft a weapon for him at 4. To go down to 11, means that the best weapon available then is Bowers if he's still there and with Kyler's size, I don't think he would make great use of a TE.
At #11, most likely option is an OL, Bowers, or a Defensive player. All fits for the Chargers. They moved off their 2 top WR and are likely to move off Mack/Bosa on the Edge in another year. So, adding draft capital to do that makes sense. Cost is looking to be 11 and 23 this year and something else. Maybe a roster player or a 1st in 2025 with maybe something also going the other way like a 3rd to even it all out. Who knows.
Main competition is likely to be NYG if they also want JJ. Easier for them to flip with AZ and still leave them 2 options at WR at 6, plus other assets to continue to build up the roster. Would likely cost NYG their 2nd this draft plus another pick in 2025.
