Home Ice Advantage

4 Bobby ORR

Registered User
Nov 26, 2008
611
291
South Detroit
I thought it would be interesting to compare the remaining schedule amongst the top teams against each other to see who the possible division winners could be.

THE EAST

Kingston, Barrie & Niagara are the top teams in the east. I excluded Mississauga as I felt they didn't acquire enough to make them a contender.

Kingston has 8 games (5 home/3 away), Barrie with 8 games as well (2 home/6 away) and Niagara with 11 games (4 home/7 away).

Conference leading Kingston has the easiest schedule followed by Barrie then Niagara with the toughest. Kingston should run away with the east division but the central division is a toss up with Barrie & Niagara making the most significant trades out of the east. I am split on this but Barrie comes to mind.

With only 6 points separating the 3 and Kingston playing 1 more game than Barrie and Niagara, it is shaping up to be quite the battle. I think Barrie gets a marginal nod as the eastern conference champs.

THE WEST

Erie, London, Kitchener, Windsor & Sarnia are the top teams in the western conference.

Erie has 15 games (7 home/8 away), London has 17 games (8 home/9 away), Kitchener 12 games (7 home/5 away), Windsor has 10 games (6 home/4 away) and Sarnia has 12 games (7 home/5 away).

The midwest is a total toss up with London having the hardest schedule followed by Erie then Kitchener. London with 2 more contender match-ups than Erie but also has 2 games in hand - dead even. Kitchener with 5 less contender match-ups and 2 games in hand has a potential to make up serious ground on Erie. A lot of scenarios come into play. The team that gets Milano or Fabbri should win the midwest, but if both show, then I think the edge goes to Kitchener otherwise Erie takes the division.

The west division has Windsor with a slightly easier schedule than Sarnia and a 7 point lead but played 3 more games. With the acquisitions Sarnia made I think it goes down to the last game of the regular season in Sarnia. Advantage Sarnia- hope I am wrong.

As for the western conference champs, the midwest should take it.

Your thoughts.....
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
I thought it would be interesting to compare the remaining schedule amongst the top teams against each other to see who the possible division winners could be.

THE EAST

Kingston, Barrie & Niagara are the top teams in the east. I excluded Mississauga as I felt they didn't acquire enough to make them a contender.

Kingston has 8 games (5 home/3 away), Barrie with 8 games as well (2 home/6 away) and Niagara with 11 games (4 home/7 away).

Conference leading Kingston has the easiest schedule followed by Barrie then Niagara with the toughest. Kingston should run away with the east division but the central division is a toss up with Barrie & Niagara making the most significant trades out of the east. I am split on this but Barrie comes to mind.

With only 6 points separating the 3 and Kingston playing 1 more game than Barrie and Niagara, it is shaping up to be quite the battle. I think Barrie gets a marginal nod as the eastern conference champs.

THE WEST

Erie, London, Kitchener, Windsor & Sarnia are the top teams in the western conference.

Erie has 15 games (7 home/8 away), London has 17 games (8 home/9 away), Kitchener 12 games (7 home/5 away), Windsor has 10 games (6 home/4 away) and Sarnia has 12 games (7 home/5 away).

The midwest is a total toss up with London having the hardest schedule followed by Erie then Kitchener. London with 2 more contender match-ups than Erie but also has 2 games in hand - dead even. Kitchener with 5 less contender match-ups and 2 games in hand has a potential to make up serious ground on Erie. A lot of scenarios come into play. The team that gets Milano or Fabbri should win the midwest, but if both show, then I think the edge goes to Kitchener otherwise Erie takes the division.

The west division has Windsor with a slightly easier schedule than Sarnia and a 7 point lead but played 3 more games. With the acquisitions Sarnia made I think it goes down to the last game of the regular season in Sarnia. Advantage Sarnia- hope I am wrong.

As for the western conference champs, the midwest should take it.

Your thoughts.....

Home ice is an important consideration to the ease of a schedule, but have you also considered the quality of the competition each team faces in the remainder of the season?

Although no algorithm could be perfect, you may consider, for example, the win loss record and goal differential between teams year to date. This would give quantitative relative strength measure. With this for each team, you could then extrapolate the remaining schedules.

After this you could go further and either make a subjective judgement about relative trade impacts or even get into the player PPG differentials.
 

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