Historical scoring level fluctuations discussion

[daver]

What are the reasons for the league scoring levels/point totals of the scoring leaders fluctuation over the history of the league? Are there any predictable patterns such as an unusual influx or departure of players? Here are the numbers: NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

There is usually a strong correlation between league GPG and the PPG of the top scorers but it is not set in stone.

I will start with the war years but would appreciate any comments on the pre-WW II years.

1942 to 1945 - A large number of players have left and league scoring, that was trending upwards before the war, takes a steep jump upwards.

Is the jump in scoring primarily due to a league wide drop in overall talent or is it more to do with teams having to adjust to having a whole bunch of new players making for a looser, more open brand of hockey?

1946 - 1954 - Players return from the war and the league settles back to normal. League scoring steadily decreases.

Is the decrease in scoring attributed all to the war effect? Were there other dynamics at play?

1955 to 1960 - League scoring increases with multiple Art Ross contenders emerging to challenge Howe.

Is the increase attributable to an influx of offensive talent that did not occur in the early '50s? Were there other dynamics at play?

1971 to 1982 - Scoring increases to it's highest level in history as the league is transforming itself from six teams to 21 teams with some NHL players playing for the WHL in between.

Is the increase attributable to the unprecedented growth and instability over this time period? Were there other dynamics at play?

1991 to 2004 - Scoring starts to decrease and hits the DPE from '97 to '04. A number of Europeans join the league in the early to mid-90s.

It is generally accepted that obstruction, better defensive systems, and better goaltending. Is it debatable that the influx of Europeans affected scoring levels?

2006 - 2007 - Scoring levels increase the by the highest amount post-1945 primarily sure to the highest jump in PP opportunities post-1945.

Was the increase exclusively about PP scoring?

2008 - 2016 - Scoring levels decrease and reach almost DPE levels in the early '10s. PP opportunities decrease at the same rate. ES scoring stays about the same throughout.

Is the decrease all about PP scoring?

2017 - 2024 - Scoring levels increase and are consistently above 3.00 for the first time since the early '90s. ES scoring has increased.

The decrease in the save % of goalies associated with equipment changes is mentioned as a reason for the increase. More open space for forwards is also mentioned.

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[overpass]

I'll just throw out some factors to consider.

1946-1954:
The impact of the 1943 red line introduction was fully felt after the war. Defencemen could pass the puck forward over the blue line now, so puck carrying became less important and passing more important for d-men.
The game became faster with the red line rule and with improvements in ice surfacing technology. But it didn't necessarily become more skilled. Dump and chase hockey was the order of the day, as was throwing pucks on net and crashing the net. Fans complained that the skilled stickhandling and passing play of the old days, as practiced by players like New York's Cook brothers and Frank Boucher, was gone, and that most goals were scored in scrambles and deflections and that it was hard to see who scored. Later when the Russians came to Canada, some oldtimers said that skilled hockey was finally back. Size and speed were more important than skill when it came to filling out NHL rosters, especially for depth players.

Toronto was one of the most successful teams of this time. Looking back, Ted Kennedy said all they would do all year was check, check, check, and then at the end of the year they had the Stanley Cup. Toronto would continue to be a defense first team through the O6 era but maybe never more so than when they were coached by Hap Day and led on the ice by Ted Kennedy.

1955-1960
The Montreal Canadiens took a big step forward in this time, and led the increase in league wide scoring. I would pick two key reasons.

For one, they got a ton of talent out of Quebec. Before Maurice Richard and Doug Harvey there really weren't a lot of top players from Quebec. Then the Habs started sponsoring junior teams everywhere and they brought in superstar talent in Beliveau, Geoffrion, Moore, H. Richard, Plante...

Toe Blake was also the right coach to really unleash them. Dick Irvin had been known as an offensive minded coach who preached speed and passing. But he was old school when it came to positions, dividing the ice into thirds and expecting his wingers to stay on their wing. Blake worked from the principle of spreading wide and breaking out with speed, and then converging on the opponents net, so the forwards had more freedom to switch lanes as long as their followed those principles. They really became the Flying Frenchmen under Blake - both the flying and the French.

Blake also moved Harvey to right D, which unleashed him more offensively.

 

[overpass]

During the war era, I believe refs were encouraged to call fewer penalties, to keep the game more interesting for the fans. And the American teams were worried about attendance more than winning, so they played more wide open hockey. I would say this was the biggest reason for the high scoring. The loss of top talent to the armed forces (usually to amateur hockey teams in the different branches of the armed forces) didn't help.

The 1946-54 period also saw more penalties called starting in 46-47, and the power play became a regular weapon for every team, led by the Leafs and Max Bentley. This goes in the other direction of the decrease in scoring across the league. Again, I think the big factor in the lower scoring at this time was the emphasis on size, strength, and dump and chase.

 

[overpass]

1971-1982:
Expansion, growth, and instability was definitely the biggest factor.

I would also point to players having more freedom, being better compensated, and having the option to jump to the WHA. Players had options and leverage to a much greater degree than they had before. So they didn't have to stay in shape, they didn't have to play defence, they could cut their hair however they wanted and party all the time. Which went along with the general spirit of the 1970s - it wasn't like today where every player is expected to be super professional. Even on the Montreal Canadiens, Scotty Bowman pointed to the team's poor conditioning when they lost in the 1975 playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I don't care for the dynamics of the 1950s and 1960s, when owners had all the power and players had to fall in line or get sent to the minors, or traded to Chicago or Springfield. But I think some players and teams went a little crazy in the 70s, and things got pretty sloppy.

Add the Bobby Orr factor. Toward the end of this time period, every team was looking for their offensive defenceman. And very few of Orr's imitators could still play good defence while jumping up in the rush, so they added goals at both ends.

Maybe a bit of the European influence as well in terms of forwards switching lanes and getting away from up and down hockey.

1991-2004
"Obstruction, better defensive systems, and better goaltending" - yes to all. I would add a change in the way coaches managed shifts which changed the role of 3rd and 4th liners. Coaching became more professional and focused on finding advantages within the game. And coaches really used defensive systems and shift management for their depth players in particular.

After the 18 man roster was implemented in 1982, many teams just rolled 4 lines. Yes, checkers and penalty killers often played on those lower lines, but they still played regular shifts. Those regular shifts often lasted a minute or more. Many coaches were still on their own in the early 80s, with no assistant coaches on the bench. Wayne Gretzky was playing 25+ minutes/game, but he was the exception. Most star forwards weren't playing more than 20 minutes a game, and third liners could score 50 points in a season.

Through the latter part of the 80s, teams across the league hired assistant coaches. Coaching seminars sprung up across the country, and coaching became more professional. Young coaches joined the league with fresh ideas and new systems. Roger Neilson introduced film study. Mike Keenan arrived in Philadelphia and made an impact with short shifts and conditioning. Jacques Lemaire implemented his checking system in Montreal, and even after Lemaire left they won the Cup with 3 checking lines and 1 scoring line.

By 1992, things looked very different from 1982 on the bench. And coaches realized they could get more out of their stars players by taking a more active role in managing shifts. 3rd and 4th line shifts were now about killing time until the top line was ready to go again. Their shifts got even shorter, roles got more defined. They'd go out to win a faceoff in their own end, and then get off the ice to let the stars on. If they were taking regular shifts, they would play safe, get it deep, and play not to concede a goal more than to score. So as scoring decreased across the league, it decreased more among depth players than among stars. Star forwards could play up to 25 minutes a game, 22 minutes a game was normal, and stars could still score 100+ points with the additional ice time and opportunity. Look at Mike Modano's scoring and Guy Carbonneau's scoring to see how the DPE affected a first liner and a third liner.

I've mentioned the 1992 change to TV timeout rules in this context before. Scotty Bowman immediately leveraged that change to get Mario Lemieux more shifts, skipping a lower line during the timeout and having Mario play before, after or before and after. Bowman had been ahead of his peers for decades in the way he managed shifts, so it's not surprising that he was on top of this change. But coaches around the league were now thinking the same way as Bowman. They were finding ways to get more minutes and more opportunities for their star forwards, at the expense of their depth. The TV timeout change provided another opportunity for them to maximize their stars.

Finally, I'll point out Pat Quinn as a bit of a throwback who didn't go with this trend. Examining Quinn's team shows you what was possible in this era if you didn't go with the new coaching paradigm. Quinn preferred to balance his lines and roll them rather than stack his top lines and leverage them. So in 1998-99, Quinn's first season in Toronto, the Leafs scored 20 more goals than any other team, and 27 more EV goals than any other team, with nobody in the top 10 in scoring. Sundin played with depth wingers and even took shifts with Tie Domi. (Which Don Cherry loved, because he coached the same way in Boston - balance and roll, depth scoring, motivation, 11 players with 20+ goals). The Leafs also didn't have a particularly good PP, which is also characteristic of Quinn/Cherry style coaching because they distribute PP minutes more broadly as a reward to improve player motivation and overall team performance, rather than optimizing for PP performance.

2006-07 and 2008-16.
Yes, it was mostly about PP scoring but not exclusively. You also have to consider that when PP minutes are up, EV minutes are down. So although overall EV scoring from 2005-07 wasn't particularly high, it was higher on a rate basis.

In 2005-06, 2 of the top 10 forwards in EV TOI were checkers John Madden and Jay Pandolfo. Because the scorers were playing 500 minutes on the power play and couldn't play as many EV minutes.

The middle of the ice opened up after the 2005 rule changes. Teams passed and skated the puck through the middle noticeably more than they had before the lockout. More speed, more chances off the rush.

Look at Sidney Crosby's EV scoring numbers in 05-06 compared to 14-15. 53 points in both seasons, and in 05-06 he played 100 fewer EV minutes. And he was only 18 years old. I think you'd have to say it was easier to score at EV in 05-07 compared to 08-16.

2017-2024
Agreed on goalie equipment, definitely.

I think teams also started to realize that having their skilled forwards attack the middle of the ice more aggressively is a good move. Creating higher percentage scoring chances is worth the risk of turning it over. In the early 10s a lot of teams played it safe and tried to outchance the other team in quantity rather than quality.

Maybe this was downstream of the goalie equipment change to some degree, because lateral movement opens goalies up more than it did before.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

2017 - 2024 - Scoring levels increase and are consistently above 3.00 for the first time since the early '90s. ES scoring has increased.

The decrease in the save % of goalies associated with equipment changes is mentioned as a reason for the increase. More open space for forwards is also mentioned.

On top of equipment, I think offensive systems have evolved in recent years. Teams are looking to take more high percentage shots. Quality over quantity.

For example cross seam one timers have become more of a mainstay in todays NHL. This type of shot is one of the most dangerous, but also can be harder to pull off. I think teams have realized that going for the harder play, while it may not work as often, will result in a high danger chance more often.

On the powerplay teams regularly only deploy 1 defenseman as opposed to 2. The point shot has basically disappeared and the dman now mostly facilitates the cycle.

Slapshots have also mostly disappeared from the game. The time it takes to windup allowed goalies to get set. The NHL is now all about wrist shots, snap shots, and deflections. All much quicker shots to release.

Another point, and I don't know how much weight to put on this, is that increased video replay also takes shots off the board. Many shots that were going to go wide and got stopped by the goalie are counted as saves, when by the definition of what a shot is they should not count. But now with HD slow mo replay it can more easily be determined what shots were going to go wide, and therefore should not count. I don't know how significant this is, but it has decreased sv% somewhat. It also means that sv% in the past is somewhat inflated.

 

[jigglysquishy]

One thing I've consistently read from WHA histories or just players' own bios. There was a recognition in the 70s that defense won championships, but offense got you paid. If you were gunning for a big contract, being able to point to an offensive milestone the previous year would carey legitimate financial benefits.

 

[MadLuke]

Are there any predictable patterns such as an unusual influx or departure of players?

I would imagine some pattern to occur:

) Change of players by spot, goals are the result of mismatch between teams, the more good player by spot available the smaller the delta between the best and worst player and you should have less goals.

) Rules changes leading to more goals, it will be rare for the league to want less goals, when they change rules it will be usually be to have more of them, the obvious exception between when goaltender achieve to get protection, like the skate in the crease rule that was short-lived.

From the forward pass to the 3x3 ot, rules change (or decision of how applying the existing one, which is very similar in practice) will tend to go toward more goals than less, when you go back from lock-out, people will often have time to do that kind of things and scoring should take a little jump up.

For example:

28	1995-96	NHL	1066	3.14	0.90	5.04	17.93	82.07	30.2	27.1	.898	3.04
29	1994-95	NHL	624	2.99	0.77	4.36	17.73	82.27	29.3	26.4	.901	2.89

19	2005-06	NHL	1230	3.08	1.03	5.85	17.68	82.32	29.9	27.0	.901	2.92
20	2003-04	NHL	1230	2.57	0.70	4.24	16.46	83.54	28.0	25.5	.911	2.46

Not always the case too...

11	2013-14	NHL	1230	2.74	0.59	3.27	17.89	82.11	30.0	27.4	.914	2.56
12	2012-13	NHL	720	2.72	0.61	3.32	18.22	81.78	29.0	26.5	.912	2.54
13	2011-12	NHL	1230	2.73	0.57	3.31	17.31	82.69	29.7	27.1	.914	2.54

 

[Offtheboard412]

I think what we are seeing now with the current trend in scoring is a combination of the changes to goalie equipment combined with a generation of players who grew up exclusively playing the post lockout rules/style with composite sticks.

My personal theory is that goaltending jumped ahead of the skaters by at least 2 generations during the 90's, and it's taken this long for forward skill development to catch up and finally even the playing field. Now almost every player has a lethal wrist shot that they can get off quickly, and the puck skills of the bottom 6 guys as well as the defensemen has improved dramatically as well. When you combine those factors with the reduction in physicality and the crackdown on illegal stickwork, suddenly the game has opened up again and it allows the skill players to really take over. I wish the league had pushed for it to happen sooner instead of letting scoring drop to dead puck era 2.0 levels in the early 2010's. It's nice to see the star players all healthy and putting up big numbers again.