Historical relevance of Kucherov and MacKinnon's 2024 season?

[overpass]

One thing we're seeing more than ever before is the top scorers playing with a high scoring defenceman regularly at even strength. Closer to 5 man units than we've seen at almost any other time in NHL history.

McDavid has played 68% of his EV minutes with Evan Bouchard on the ice. This is his highest % with one defenceman since he played 71% of his EV minutes with Darnell Nurse in 20-21.

MacKinnon has played 65% of his EV minutes with Cale Makar on the ice. This is actually down a little bit from two seasons ago, when he played 71% of his EV minutes with Makar.

Kucherov has played 54% of his minutes with Victor Hedman on the ice. The previous two seasons he was under 50%.

This has been done before. The Russian Five in Detroit. Paul Coffey played a lot with Gretzky and Lemieux. Brian Leetch played a lot with Mark Messier. For the data era where we have the actual numbers, Pavel Datsyuk played 65% of his EV minutes with Nick Lidstrom in 07-08, boosting him to a career high in points.

But the top scorers of the last generation didn't get the benefit of playing most of the time with their best offensive defenceman. Alex Ovechkin never played more than 50% of his EV minutes with Mike Green or John Carlson. Sidney Crosby never played more than 50% of his EV minutes with Sergei Gonchar. Or with Kris Letang, until Sullivan became coach in 2015-16.

 

[MadLuke]

they are still scoring more than 40% above the pace than the 10th place scorer, despite the higher scoring it is a lot but still not like in the 95-96 season, more than the 06-07 too.

 

[TheStatican]

Stop stalling. What issue do you have calling these seasons historic?

They're not at the same level as peak Gretzky or Lemieux simple as that.

 

[WarriorofTime]

They're not at the same level as peak Gretzky or Lemieux simple as that.

Now you are just defecting.

 

[GlitchMarner]

This season is certainly going to be a memorable one. Posters in the future will make threads about it.

I think we're looking at something like 1989 meets 1993 or 1996 here.

A lot of big seasons from various players and a handful of guys towering above the rest.


This is really no Gretzky or Lemieux. McDavid is the closest we have. Honestly, if he had put up the kind of season in 2022 that he did in '21 or '23, stringing together three seasons of absolute dominance, I'd be fine with calling him the modern-day Gretzky. He still wouldn't be quite as statistically superior to the rest of the League, but perhaps he would be the closest one can get nowadays? I wonder how he'll do next season. It seems like one season he completely laps the field but then the next he has more of a typical post-peak Gordie Howe or Crosby level prime season (top three to top five in scoring and among the very best in the League).

I guess MacKinnon = Yzerman having his best offensive season. Like Yzerman was from the late 80s to mid 90s, he's been among the best scorers in the League for years. This will probably be his signature season.

Kucherov is kind of an oddity. I guess he's Marty St. Louis on steroids? MSL won a couple of Art Rosses in an era where very few players win more than one. I don't think he could have beaten a healthy peak Forsberg or Crosby for a Ross whereas Kucherov beat McDavid in a healthy season before and it looks like he's going to beat him again.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

McDavid last year was in my opinion better than Kucherov or MacK this year. And McDavid has been right up there with Kucherov and MacK this season as well. So if Kucherov and MacK are putting up top 25 seasons of all time then I assume 2023 McDavid is also a top 25 season of all time as well.

It seems unlikely/odd that 3 (and potentially 4 if not for McDavid injuries this year) of the best 25 seasons of all time occurred in the past two seasons.

 

[daver]

This season is certainly going to be a memorable one. Posters in the future will make threads about it.

I think we're looking at something like 1989 meets 1993 or 1996 here.

2008/09 also saw the league's three biggest names at the top in both the regular season, and in the playoffs, but scoring had started to decrease after the PP supported jump in 05/06 so the potential for eye-popping numbers by Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin had passed.

ES scoring the league's best players stayed constant from the DPE (97/98) to the end of (DPE 2.0), when the league GPG was below 2.80 in all those seasons:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Only six players cracked 80 points or the 1.00 ES PPG threshold:

Jagr three times,
Crosby (twice in shortened seasons)
Sedin
Malkin
Ovechkin

70 points was hit 14 times


Since 17/18, seven players have cracked 80 points or the 1.00 ES PPG:

McDavid four times
MacKinnon twice
Matthews twice
Kucherov twice
Gaudreau
Kane
Panarin

70 points has been hit 26 times.

 

[The Macho King]

With Kucherov breaking the all time assist record for wingers, and the only one to reach 90 assists and possibly 100, I think it's time to start considering whether Kucherov has the best playmaking peak of any winger ever.

He also has 3 of the top 6 highest assist seasons.

He has such a weird play style. Can't think of a good comparison.

 

[BraveCanadian]

With Kucherov breaking the all time assist record for wingers, and the only one to reach 90 assists and possibly 100, I think it's time to start considering whether Kucherov has the best playmaking peak of any winger ever.

He also has 3 of the top 6 highest assist seasons.

I think that an argument can be made, but it can't be overlooked that scoring is up dramatically for front liners as well.

We may have 2 100 assist players this year after 30 years of none. We had a 150 point guy last year after ~30 years of none. We might have a 70 goal guy after 30 years of none.

It is also important to keep in mind that hockey existed before 80 game seasons as well.

 

[Felidae]

I think that an argument can be made, but it can't be overlooked that scoring is up dramatically for front liners as well.

We may have 2 100 assist players this year after 30 years of none. We had a 150 point guy last year after ~30 years of none. We might have a 70 goal guy after 30 years of none.

It is also important to keep in mind that hockey existed before 80 game seasons as well.

Fair points.

Though it's worth noting that the dominance Kucherov has in assists over his peers (10th, 20th most assists) this season is pretty even to Jagr in 1998-99, which is unanimously considered to be his best season. At least on HOH.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Fair points.

Though it's worth noting that the dominance Kucherov has in assists over his peers (10th, 20th most assists) this season is pretty even to Jagr in 1998-99, which is unanimously considered to be his best season. At least on HOH.

Over wingers maybe? Because Kucherov is #2 to a guy who has played fewer games.. so again the context is that everybody is up pretty significantly.

 

[daver]

Over wingers maybe? Because Kucherov is #2 to a guy who has played fewer games.. so again the context is that everybody is up pretty significantly.

The % over all forwards is pretty even with Jagr's. Of course Jagr didn't have a McDavid in the leagie in 98/99. Now Jagr was the better goalscorer in 98/99 and, as per the OP, are we wondering how to place these seasons in historical sense?

What is more impresseive? The same % domination in a lower scoring environment or in a higher scoring environment?

One can argue that 100 assists is a 100 assists and is > to Jagr's 83 assists.

One can argue that looser checking, more offensive oriented hockey lends itself to anomaly seasons like Kucherov's, MacKinnon's or Yzerman's while tighter checking, defensive hockey lends itself to more parity at the top.

 

[bobholly39]

Outside of just this season - I find it frustrating that Kucherov seems to get continuously underrated historically.

A week from now - how many forwards in NHL history will have a better top 2 best regular seasons than him?

And how many forwards in NHL history will have a better playoff resume than him - be it overall, or again best 2 runs?

How many players will have the combination of both those things better than him? Are there 5? 10?

To me - from an all-time perspective - he's been in the Forsberg/Malkin tier for a while, and he will surpass both if he hasn't already (obviously continued longevity is needed).

 

[jigglysquishy]

Outside of just this season - I find it frustrating that Kucherov seems to get continuously underrated historically.

A week from now - how many forwards in NHL history will have a better top 2 best regular seasons than him?

And how many forwards in NHL history will have a better playoff resume than him - be it overall, or again best 2 runs?

How many players will have the combination of both those things better than him? Are there 5? 10?

To me - from an all-time perspective - he's been in the Forsberg/Malkin tier for a while, and he will surpass both if he hasn't already (obviously continued longevity is needed).

This is kind of the crux for me.

At the end of the 22-23 season, Kucherov lacked the big sizzle for a #2 and #3 season.

He put together a lot of really good seasons, but outside 2018-19 nothing "great".

2016-17, he's third in PPG, on stacked team where he's "only" 12 points ahead of Hedman.
2017-18, he's fourth in PPG in a crowded field, on a stacked team.
2019-20, he's part of the crowd
2021-22, he misses half the season
2022-23, he's third in points

17, 18, and 23 are all good seasons that add depth to a resume, but if you are looking at the total package, none of them stand out as a great #2 season. Certainly not compared to a Malkin 2009. Malkin also had the benefit of looking like a top 3 player in the world when healthy for a good 6-8 years.

His 2019 win is his only top 5 Hart finish.

2023-24 is a big change. It adds a top tier season (I would argue better than 2019) and does it without an all-time cast in their primes.

I would stick Kucherov in the 10-15 range for wingers now, but I don't want to pencil him in until he dust settles on the season.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Hopefully he adds a deserved Hart this year...even though MacK was really fast the other night...

 

[BraveCanadian]

This is kind of the crux for me.

At the end of the 22-23 season, Kucherov lacked the big sizzle for a #2 and #3 season.

He put together a lot of really good seasons, but outside 2018-19 nothing "great".

2016-17, he's third in PPG, on stacked team where he's "only" 12 points ahead of Hedman.
2017-18, he's fourth in PPG in a crowded field, on a stacked team.
2019-20, he's part of the crowd
2021-22, he misses half the season
2022-23, he's third in points

17, 18, and 23 are all good seasons that add depth to a resume, but if you are looking at the total package, none of them stand out as a great #2 season. Certainly not compared to a Malkin 2009. Malkin also had the benefit of looking like a top 3 player in the world when healthy for a good 6-8 years.

His 2019 win is his only top 5 Hart finish.

2023-24 is a big change. It adds a top tier season (I would argue better than 2019) and does it without an all-time cast in their primes.

I would stick Kucherov in the 10-15 range for wingers now, but I don't want to pencil him in until he dust settles on the season.

It is a massive season for both Kucherov and MacK no mattter the variables around them, that is for sure.

 

[bobholly39]

Hopefully he adds a deserved Hart this year...even though MacK was really fast the other night...

Both are deserving of a hart with such a season and one will unfortunately get the shaft. I lean Kucherov myself for hart, but we'll see

I always find it ironic too how fans like to say Mack got the shaft in 2018 so deserves this hart this year - when I personally actually also had Kucherov #1 in 2018 (I did have Mack #2).

 

[Michael Farkas]

Make-up Harts and trophies are very silly. Every so often, I see someone going, "well, four years later, we see now that [player x] deserved the Calder Trophy over [player y]" - how does that make any sense? Calder isn't for best young prospect. It's for who the best rookie was that season.

MacKinnon didn't get shafted in 2018, he's had a really good season this year...I won't be beside myself if he wins the Hart, but it's really tight at the top. It gets tighter if Pittsburgh makes the playoffs because that was all Crosby in a way we haven't seen in the regular season before...sort of like Hall's 2018 Hart, coincidentally enough, which he won for just willing his team into a playoff spot.

I'm probably at: Kucherov, McDavid, Crosby*, MacKinnon...and I'd like to find a place for Josi, I'd like to find a place for Quinn Hughes, and even Hellebuyck...but the ballot is only so large. I guess the Pens falling out of it would open up a spot because what good is an MVP vote if it doesn't get you anywhere? (I guess). This is a tough year...voters have enough trouble with easy years, I don't have a lot of confidence on how this is going to turn out...

 

[WarriorofTime]

Wonder how Kucherov being kind of unfairly maligned by award voters will see him get viewed historically. In the Malkin-Kucherov poll people were coming close to dismissing his performance in the cup winning campaigns because “no smythe”. One of them he destroyed his teammates in playoff points but voters didn’t seem to care much. I’m almost positive MacKinnon is getting the hart this year. It’s an easy thing to defer to but the more objective stuff (i.e., just the stats) paint a different picture. A second big time season and a lot of consistency. Will have to see how he does from an aging perspective as he has a later start than many on all time lists that have a lot more front loaded numbers. Or how much that matters. Consider how low someone like Datsyuk is relatively in career compiled totals.

 

[daver]

This is kind of the crux for me.

At the end of the 22-23 season, Kucherov lacked the big sizzle for a #2 and #3 season.

He put together a lot of really good seasons, but outside 2018-19 nothing "great".

2016-17, he's third in PPG, on stacked team where he's "only" 12 points ahead of Hedman.
2017-18, he's fourth in PPG in a crowded field, on a stacked team.
2019-20, he's part of the crowd
2021-22, he misses half the season
2022-23, he's third in points

17, 18, and 23 are all good seasons that add depth to a resume, but if you are looking at the total package, none of them stand out as a great #2 season. Certainly not compared to a Malkin 2009. Malkin also had the benefit of looking like a top 3 player in the world when healthy for a good 6-8 years.

His 2019 win is his only top 5 Hart finish.

2023-24 is a big change. It adds a top tier season (I would argue better than 2019) and does it without an all-time cast in their primes.

I would stick Kucherov in the 10-15 range for wingers now, but I don't want to pencil him in until he dust settles on the season.

Malkin -Point finishes:
1, 1, 2, 4

Kucherov:
1, 1, 3, T3, T5

Malkin PPG finishes:
1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Kucherov:
1, 1, 2, 4, T4 5, 8


Playoffs are pretty even. Malkin has the clear best playoff run but Kucherov has the next best two runs.

 

[seventieslord]

Now you are just defecting.

You can't force him to leave the country over this.

 

[authentic]

McDavid last year was in my opinion better than Kucherov or MacK this year. And McDavid has been right up there with Kucherov and MacK this season as well. So if Kucherov and MacK are putting up top 25 seasons of all time then I assume 2023 McDavid is also a top 25 season of all time as well.

It seems unlikely/odd that 3 (and potentially 4 if not for McDavid injuries this year) of the best 25 seasons of all time occurred in the past two seasons.

Crazy also that for a 2 month span this season where Kucherov and MacKinnon were still scoring at their 140+ point paces McDavid had more assists than either of them had points

 

[TheStatican]

Now you are just defecting.

Deflecting about what, whether they're historic or not? That doesn't have any relevance to what I was discussing. Furthermore does a season instantly become historic merely because a player scores 'X' number of points? And is a season not historic if a player falls one point short of whatever arbitrary threshold you've chosen? Achievements are nuanced; they aren't strictly all-or-nothing affairs. The seasons some are having are historic to some degree, but they are still no where near as historic as peak Wayne & Mario.

A big part of that is because the numbers being posted by players in then last few season are in fact inflated due to several factors that haven't been discussed in here yet:
-Empty net points (for and against)
-3-on-3 overtime

I've just completed my thesis on the matter which proves this is a factor:

Empty Net & Overtime Scoring: Their Effects on Scoring Distribution and the Resulting Inflation of Point Totals for the League's Top Players

Empty net scoring has seen a huge uptick in recent seasons, largely thanks to analytics revealing that playing with an empty net is actually of a net benefit for a team aiming to make a comeback. Goals conceded during these situations are now considered to be largely inconsequential; after all...

forums.hfboards.com

There has been considerable debate swirling around the significance of empty net points in this year's scoring race on the main forums. That, in and of itself, is a matter for some debate, but at least you can say that all active players are operating within the same general environment. It's a different story when we compare the stats of the top players this year to those of previous seasons. Yes, I'm aware that many of the top seasons of the past also had the added benefit of playing in a season with higher scoring levels, but that is a factor that can be easily adjusted for. Empty net scoring and 3-on-3 overtime, however, are factors that are not being adjusted for at all, certainly not by HR's adjusted scoring metric, and the net benefit of those situations is far from insignificant.

This is a major flaw of adjusted scoring - it fails to account for circumstances that allows skilled players to account for a larger share of overall scoring the net result of which is increasing point totals.

 

[daver]

So the seasons are in the books.

Kucherov and MacKinnon separated themselves statistically from the pack in a way that rivals the very best of the non Big 4 players all-time and are close to McDavid last year.

While Kucherov had a very solid 18/19, in terms of all-time status, it wasn't as viewed quite as quite as dominant given the strength of his team that year/quality of linemates. This year, there is no "strength of team" argument to be made while his linemates didn't have particularly great seasons.

MacKinnon wasn't knocking on the " possible 2nd tier player" door all these years; minor injuries kept him from reaching more Top 3/5 Art finishes that his PPG would dictate.

So where do these seasons fit all-time? With the best of the 2nd tier players? Does this move them into 2nd tier range?

Yzerman comes to mind as a player who had a 2nd tier type season but ultimately is not viewed in that tier. He is with Trottier and Sakic, neither of whom had as dominant a season as Yzerman.

Starting in 17/18, scoring levels by the league's Top 50 scorers have increased primarily on the strength of ES scoring to levels not seen since the early '90s.

Is there something unique about this recent trend that opened the door to these seasons?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Important to note league scoring wasn’t overly high in a historical context compared to some other seasons. People may look at top five, top ten scorers and assume that means the 80s are back but a large number of teams league wide didn’t have a big time scorer on their team which is more unusual. They’re getting powerplays, empty nets, etc. and compare 32 teams versus 21 teams when you look at the x number scorer. The depth of individual high end elite scorers is what is being most underrated with the sort of implicit understanding that only McDavid can be really really elite because of how buzzwords like “generational” and such are thrown around.