I have been wondering about draft performance. Essentially... if scouting, draft decisions, and subsequent player development was theoretically perfect across the league, the the rank at which a player is drafted should closely match the player's subsequent performance in the league. I realize this is an extreme hypothetical but I thought it could at least be meaningfully examined.
Attached is a spreadsheet that looks at all the forwards in the 2013 priority selection that have had a playing career in the league. I have used data from the EliteProspects website. The first column lists each player's rank in terms of career points per game. The second column is the player's overall draft rank. The players are sorted by team and, within each team, their career average PPG. I have subjectively highlighted forwards that have performed, on a PPG basis, significantly better than their draft position would have predicted (ignoring some where the absolute point production was not enough to be significant).
Some observations based on this limited data:
- There is substantial differences in the the results per team.
- Many players, including many from relatively deep in the draft, substantially improved
Before I bother go further with this analysis (other years, other roles), I'd be interested in critical feedback.
Attached is a spreadsheet that looks at all the forwards in the 2013 priority selection that have had a playing career in the league. I have used data from the EliteProspects website. The first column lists each player's rank in terms of career points per game. The second column is the player's overall draft rank. The players are sorted by team and, within each team, their career average PPG. I have subjectively highlighted forwards that have performed, on a PPG basis, significantly better than their draft position would have predicted (ignoring some where the absolute point production was not enough to be significant).
Some observations based on this limited data:
- There is substantial differences in the the results per team.
- Many players, including many from relatively deep in the draft, substantially improved
Before I bother go further with this analysis (other years, other roles), I'd be interested in critical feedback.