Hindsight is 20/20 Thread

[AD Skinner]

i shouldn't have changed my hf username to a slight modification of a screenname of a girl i was obsessed with, which she found via google autofill while googling herself

Mind if I google myself in your office?

 

[Unsustainable]

Drafted Kopitar
Drafted Getzlaf
Drafted Karlsson
Drafted Benn
Not traded Ladd

Ladd - Getzlaf - Benn
Skinner - Kopitar - Semin
Gerbe - Sutter - Lindholm
Terry - Rask - McClemment

Sekera - Karlsson
Gleason - Faulk
Hainsey - Muprhy

Ward
Dobby

If the F.Forsberg was able to be drafted also.. That third line would have been Forseberg - Sutter - Lindholm

 

[DaveG]

I've done this hypothetical debate quite a few times before, just never on here. Just keeping it realistic here, so nothing like Subban over Sutter or anything, if they weren't drafted within 5 or so spots (10 for later firsts) it's just not realistic. Only exception I would give for that is goalies since 1 - the position is unpredictable, and 2 - teams rarely take a goalie early unless they have a need at the position. But I'd still keep it within a round to be semi-realistic. Anyway:

2005 - trade down with Ottawa allowing them to select Jack Johnson at #3, adding their next years first to the mix as well. Draft Anze Kopitar at #9

2006 - draft Jamie McGinn (#36) with the #28 pick previously acquired from Ottawa.

Sign Manny Legace at 2 years, 1.4 mil (signed with St Louis, 1 year, 1.4 mil) instead of John Grahame, giving us a much much MUCH better 1b/mentor for Ward over that period.

2007 - draft Ryan McDonagh (#12) over Sutter with the #11 pick since we'd have Staal-Kopitar-Brindy-Adams down the middle from that point going forward.
If we made the playoffs (quite possible with better goaltending) make that MaxPac or Perron.

draft Dwight King over McCrae

2008 - keep Andrew Ladd

draft Erik Karlsson (#15) over Boychuk with the #14 pick, Derek Stepan (#51) over Zac Dalpe (#45)
If we made the playoffs and picked later then 20, make that pick Carlson

2009 - keep Williams instead of doing the 3-way trade that resulted in us getting Cole back.

draft O'Reilly (#33) over Bustadise (#27), David Savard (#94) over Lindstrom (#88)

re-sign Seidenberg ~3 years, 2.5 mil per (what he was asking for) rather then trading for Gritty Veteran AWardo.

2010 - this is where reality and hypothetical since 06 would REALLY begin to diverge, since there's no way we would have ended up that bad that year with a lineup like:

Ladd - E Staal - Williams
Whitney - Kopitar - Jokinen
McGinn - O'Reilly - LaRose
Nonstopoulos - Brindy - Dwyer

Pitkanen - Seidenberg
McDonagh - UFA
Wallin - Karlsson/Carlson

Ward
Legace

defense still sucks but that would likely be a playoff team, not a #7 overall pick team. Especially since in the prior seasons, with Legace as backup, Ward wouldn't have had to be so overworked.

So assuming we'd be drafting in the 20s: draft Faulk anyway (yes, I know that goes against my own realism standard), keep Alt, Michael Chaput (#89) over Levi.

2011 - again, assuming pick in the 20s:
draft John Gibson (#39) in first round
attempt to land Rask, Saad, or Kucherov in 2nd

2012 - draft Maatta (#22)
sign Semin to 4 year UFA contract for ~what he made on the 1 year deal.

2013 - draft one of Mantha/Burakovsky/Shinkaruk/de la Rose in the 20s
trade our 2nd and McBain for Sekera anyway, because Buffalo gonna tank anyway

sign Jordan Staal as a UFA to long term deal

2014 - draft Kapanen or Ho-Sang

have lineup that now looks like this:
Ladd - Kopitar - Semin
McGinn - J Staal - E Staal
O'Reilly - Stepan - Rask/Saad/Kucherov
King - Nash - Chaput

McDonagh - Karlsson
Sekera - Faulk
Maatta - Dumoulin

Ward
Gibson


oh, but what about the salary cap you say? That's just loser talk for "zomg your team is too ****ing awesome Dave". Besides, no way things would stay like that, trades would be made to clear salary and to acquire all the first round picks. ALL OF THEM.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

^definitely didn't read that post

 

[tarheelhockey]

^definitely didn't read that post

tl;dr

 

[Braxton Wolff]

1) Draft Kopitar over Johnson (2004)
2) Draft Simmonds over Sutter (2007)...this cancels J.Staal trade and allows Canes to draft F.Forsberg (2012)
3) Draft Benn over Bowman (2007)
4) Draft Karlsson over Boychuck (2008)
5) Draft Hamonic over Dalpe (2008)

Canes Hindsight
FORWARDS
Jamie Benn ($5.250m) / Eric Staal ($8.250m) / Filip Forsberg ($0.894m)
Jeff Skinner ($5.725m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Jiri Tlusty ($2.950m) / Riley Nash ($0.575m) / Elias Lindholm ($0.925m)
Zach Boychuk ($0.600m) / Jay McClement ($1.000m) / Patrick Dwyer ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
Andrej Sekera ($2.750m) / Erik Karlsson ($6.500m)
Travis Hamonic ($3.857m) / Justin Faulk ($4.833m)
Ron Hainsey ($2.833m) / Brett Bellemore ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Cam Ward ($6.300m)
Anton Khudobin ($2.250m)
RETAINED SALARIES (1.38% of upper limit)
Tuomo Ruutu ($0.950m—20.00%)
BONUS OVERAGE
NaN
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15 crunched using simulation date of 2014-11-14)
SALARY CAP: $68,940,000; BONUSES: $1,416,667
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $1,086,889

Skinner makes more than Benn. Is Benn on a bridge deal or were no UFA years bought on his current contract? Sorry, I'm lazy

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Drafted Kopitar
Drafted Getzlaf
Drafted Karlsson
Drafted Benn
Not traded Ladd

That was more than 10 years ago so ineligible for this exercise.

 

[Unsustainable]

That was more than 10 years ago so ineligible for this exercise.

I'm getting old, forget that was 03..

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've done this hypothetical debate quite a few times before, just never on here. <snip Guerzy/Vagrant length post>

I think that was more than 5 decisions....Dave. And I didn't consider things like the Ottawa trade, as that is a what-if rather than a make a different decision.

I think you bring up a good point though. Maybe it should be limited to 1st round picks and you can only make a different decision if it is within 10 picks of where the pick was. For instance, selecting McDonagh instead of Sutter is ok, but selecting Subban instead of Sutter isn't.

I'd still keep what I posted in my "revised" list and just switch Subban for McDonagh.

Ladd-E. Staal-Forsberg
Tlusty-Kopitar-Semin
Skinner-Nash-Lindholm
Gerbe-Rask-Dwyer

McDonagh-Karlsson
Sekera-Faulk
Hainsey-Murphy
Dumoulin

Ward
Khudobin

And that is barely over the cap ($72.7M vs. $69M)

 

[DaveG]

Most relevant ones were the ones made before 2010 anyway. But yeah changing it to just 5 big ones, from that time frame:

Kopitar over JmferJ
Legace as UFA over Grahame
McDonagh (or MaxPac depending on spot) over Sutter
Keep Ladd
Karlsson (or Carlson depending on spot) over Boychuk


yes, i think having a legitimately decent goalie like Legace as 1B instead of Grahame as an intended 1B but really is backup would have made that much of a difference. Legace we could have had for upwards of 4 years and, had we been in position to draft Gibson long-term as I projected, would have given us a good situation for Ward until Gibson or **** You Ritch Winter Andersen was ready this year and last year. Would we still be bringing in Dobby if Ward's healthy long-term? Dunno, we can hope. Worst case: we've got Peters still at that point, until this year.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

This thread depresses me.

 

[Joe McGrath]

This thread depresses me.

You could go the other way with this and make 5 moves that would have screwed them and caused them to move to
Albuquerque.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

You could go the other way with this and make 5 moves that would have screwed them and caused them to move to
Albuquerque.

1 - left #jrrutherford in charge

2 - N/A

3 - N/A

4 - N/A

5 - N/A

 

[DaveG]

You could go the other way with this and make 5 moves that would have screwed them and caused them to move to
Albuquerque.

Keeping the same realism standards?

Drafting Dylan McIlrath over Jeff Skinner and Christian Thomas over Justin Faulk
Drafting Angelo Esposito over Brandon Sutter
Trading the Jack Johnson pick down to Buffalo for Marek Zagrapan and Tim Connolly, then giving Connolly a max extension
Trading Cam Ward after 06 for Wade Redden and signing him to a max extension
Trading Eric Staal to Edmonton and using the acquired picks to take Brett Connolly, Duncan Seimens, and Nail Yakupov

 

[RodTheBawd]

Keeping the same realism standards?

Drafting Dylan McIlrath over Jeff Skinner and Christian Thomas over Justin Faulk
Drafting Angelo Esposito over Brandon Sutter
Trading the Jack Johnson pick down to Buffalo for Marek Zagrapan and Tim Connolly, then giving Connolly a max extension
Trading Cam Ward after 06 for Wade Redden and signing him to a max extension
Trading Eric Staal to Edmonton and using the acquired picks to take Brett Connolly, Duncan Seimens, and Nail Yakupov

I like this thread again Of course, you could argue we'd have had the same success either way.

 

[Unsustainable]

Since my last was rejected cause of 03...

Draft Kopitar
Draft Benn
Draft Karlsson
Keep Ladd
Not Trade for Jordan, Draft Forseberg

Ladd - Eric - Benn
Skinner - Kopitar - Semin
Forseberg - Sutter - Lindholm
Gerbe - Nash - Rask

Sekera - Karlsson
Hainsey - Faulk
Gleason - Murphy
Harry

Ward
Dobby