Hossa
Registered User
Another draft, another late first round pick and basket of late round picks. In sum, it was 13 selections in all, 10 of which were forwards, and somehow only one of whom was from the CHL. The first two picks were just about a best case scenario for me, while the later 11 picks were all guys I targeted, although a few defencemen I liked either went earlier or did not go at all.
1st Round, 24th overall: Dylan Holloway, C/W, University of Wisconsin
Holloway is unusual for a draft pick of mine in that I probably have two years of history watching him, going back to the Hlinka-Gretzky in 2018. Coming into this season, I would have been very surprised to see him slip into the late first, but underwhelming production on a disappointing and puzzling Wisconsin team made him drop. Still, he was one of three options I looked at, and I felt obligated to let the two Germans slide to the Panthers GM, so Holloway is the pick here.
In truth, I still believe in the player. Plus skating, great hands, extremely hard worker and versatile. I do believe he has both a high floor and a high ceiling, and his play improved significantly as the season went along, putting up better numbers and also flashing some of the dynamic skill he showed in the past. If he is a centre long-term, it would be the Mike Fisher kind, but he could also be a useful complimentary winger like Chris Kreider, or even a hybrid like JT Miller. Worst case scenario, Jason Chimera.
2nd Round, 55th overall: Topi Niemela, D, Karpat
I was amazed Niemela was available at 55. He was on my shortlist for fall back options in the late first, and also in a group of four or five defencemen I think are the best of the rest after Sanderson and Drysdale. Niemela stood out for me at the Five Nations tournament in February as an outstanding puck mover who was strong in his own end and showed flashes of real skill offensively, not unlike Sanderson in a sense. While he is a great skater, he does not push play with his feet in transition (at leas tyet), but rather moves it effectively through his passing. He played more conservatively in league play but still, at times, the skill would pop, especially as he activates off the cycle. A bit like with Holloway, I think there is a safe element to Niemela but I picked him because I believe in the tools and the upside as well.
4th Round, 100th overall: Dylan Peterson, C, US NTDP
Speaking of tools, that is basically what Peterson is right now, a big bag of unrefined tools. He brings size, skating and really impressive hands, but the results often are not quite there. At times this year he looked to me like a player who could not quite think the game well enough to dominate with those tools. Other times, such as at the Five Nations, he seemed more effective in a simplified role, such as in front of the net on the powerplay and as a match-up centre against U18 opponents. He is well worth the bet at this spot though, and I am intrigued to see how he does at Boston University.
4th Round, 116th overall: Landon Slaggert, C/W, US NTDP
Slaggert is not quite as toolsy as Peterson, but he can stand out even on a team like the NTDP. Good size, very good skater, moves well and can really turn the corner on defenders with power and control, all of which makes him dynamic in a way I expected Luke Tuch to be. All of this was apparent when you watched him this year, especially at the Five Nations where he was at times the US team's best player. But the production overall just was not quite there, so while I liked him more than a guy like Tuch, the results are confusing. Notre Dame is a good place for him where he will be able to continue his well rounded game but with enough ice time to work on whatever is holding back his offence.
4th Round, 117th overall: Colby Ambrosio, C, Tri-City Storm
Basically the exact opposite of Peterson, Ambrosio is not toolsy but has worked extremely hard to become a prospect. He is small and slight, and quick and darting but not yet a balanced skater, but still, all he does is produce, putting up 26 goals and 50 points in 48 games on an middle of the road USHL team, creating offence and driving play whenever I saw him. Off to Boston College next year, Ambrosio will probably end up on the wing and needs to work on his strength, but I would expect he puts up numbers in college quickly.
5th Round, 146th overall: Trevor Kuntar, C, Youngstown
Another player who has worked extremely hard to become a prospect, Kuntar passed through last year and came back as maybe the best player not on the Chicago Steel to play in the USHL. Although only 6'0", Kuntar plays a heavy, direct style of game, driving hard to the net and putting a lot of pucks on goal. He was especially noticeable at the World Junior A Challenge, a valuable test of his ability to keep up with the pace as it increases. Kuntar is off to Harvard, which is one of the best development options around these days.
5th Round, 148th overall: Quinn Olson, LW, University of Minnesota-Duluth
The first re-entry on the list and the first player I will admit to not having a great feel for. Olson was a third round pick in 2019 after playing on Dylan Holloway's wing in the AJHL, and had a solid but unspectacular freshman year at Duluth. From what I have seen and read, Olson is quick and plays a good complimentary game, and I am encouraged that he produced reasonably well in a bottom six role after the big jump from the AJHL. I am also placing a bet on Boston's track record of taking guys with similar profiles like Studnicka, Heinen and Bjork and turning them into very good value.
6th Round, 166th overall: Nikita Nesterenko, C, Chiliwack
Another re-entry, Nesterenko is another bet on a player who made a significant jump - in this case from prep school in New Jersey to the BCHL - in his D+1 season and performed well. Nesterenko is very raw, grew very late, and missed being 2020 eligible by less than a week, so to put up a point per game in the BCHL is a good start. He also flashed high end skills at Minnesota Wild development camp last summer. Nesterenko (who is from Brooklyn, by the way), is a long-term play - he is 6'1" and very physically underdeveloped, but has outstanding hands and vision, and the creativity of a real centre. Like Ambrosio, he is off to Boston College.
6th Round, 170th overall: Cole Brady, G, Fargo
A fifth round pick last year by New Jersey, Brady jumped from the NAHL to the USHL this past season and performed just ok. Early reports were that he was turning heads for his size and athleticism - 6'5", 174lbs - but he tailed off a bit in the second half. He is off to Arizona State in the fall, which did well developing Joey Daccord into a legitimate goalie prospect. Goalies are goalies, you cannot make 13 picks and not roll the dice on one.
6th Round, 179th overall: Pavel Tyutnev, C, Loko Yaroslavl
Like Niemela, Tyutnev was a relative unknown to me until he stood out at the Five Nations (and retroactively at the World Junior A Challenge), flashing high-end hands, creativity and problem solving ability, and enough skating for it to translate. In the MHL he played and produced less, although those who tracked his underlying metrics suggest he performed very well when given the opportunity. He probably does not stick at centre, but I am intrigued by the upside, especially given his strong performance against his international peers.
7th Round, 190th overall: Santeri Hatakka, D, Ilves
Another re-entry and also another player who perhaps has showed better internationally than in league play, Hatakka leveraged a strong U18s last year into a late pick with San Jose. This year was a mixed bag - a depth role in Liiga, good but unspectacular performance at the WJC and flashes of offence in Mestis. My assessment is he is smart and mobile, reliable defensively but without a standout tool, the kind of prospect who I can easily see cracking Doug Wilson's Sharks in a depth role in the not too distant future.
7th Round, 193rd overall: Gage Goncalves, C, Everett
I am surprised Goncalves slipped this far after a very good season in the WHL. Undrafted last year after scoring one goal as a 17 year old, Goncalves broke out with 33 goals and 71 points in 60 games, flashing some real skill in the process. Also never drafted into the WHL, Goncalves has a high work rate, very good hands and shot, gets high grades for his intelligence and compete, and has a raw frame at 6'1" and about 170lbs. The skating needs work but I think the stride is ok, even if it can be a bit hunched over, and I am betting on him to continue overachieving, especially as he has been on social media showcasing his off-season workout regiment of late.
7th Round, 210th overall: Mason Lohrei, D, Green Bay
One of the few benefits of COVID-19 is getting to watch more hockey than I have in 15 years, and Lohrei is a product of that. Listed in the 130s on CSS, and not even mentioned in other draft guides I saw, Lohrei seems like an intriguing under the radar pick at this late stage in the draft. He went undrafted last year out of prep school, but was one of the most productive defencemen in the USHL, scoring around a point per game from early November onwards. He also grew quite late, having been 6'1" and 150lbs when he committed to Ohio State two years ago, but now standing at 6'4"or 6'5". Watching him, it can be hard to project his upside - he is only an average skater, and creates much of his offence from the blueline rather than in transition. He looks a bit like Patrick Wiercioch out there, relying on reach and intelligence, but later in the year he showed increasing confidence to try to beat guys one-on-one as well. It is a big swing but there are a lot of reasons to be intrigued.
1st Round, 24th overall: Dylan Holloway, C/W, University of Wisconsin
Holloway is unusual for a draft pick of mine in that I probably have two years of history watching him, going back to the Hlinka-Gretzky in 2018. Coming into this season, I would have been very surprised to see him slip into the late first, but underwhelming production on a disappointing and puzzling Wisconsin team made him drop. Still, he was one of three options I looked at, and I felt obligated to let the two Germans slide to the Panthers GM, so Holloway is the pick here.
In truth, I still believe in the player. Plus skating, great hands, extremely hard worker and versatile. I do believe he has both a high floor and a high ceiling, and his play improved significantly as the season went along, putting up better numbers and also flashing some of the dynamic skill he showed in the past. If he is a centre long-term, it would be the Mike Fisher kind, but he could also be a useful complimentary winger like Chris Kreider, or even a hybrid like JT Miller. Worst case scenario, Jason Chimera.
2nd Round, 55th overall: Topi Niemela, D, Karpat
I was amazed Niemela was available at 55. He was on my shortlist for fall back options in the late first, and also in a group of four or five defencemen I think are the best of the rest after Sanderson and Drysdale. Niemela stood out for me at the Five Nations tournament in February as an outstanding puck mover who was strong in his own end and showed flashes of real skill offensively, not unlike Sanderson in a sense. While he is a great skater, he does not push play with his feet in transition (at leas tyet), but rather moves it effectively through his passing. He played more conservatively in league play but still, at times, the skill would pop, especially as he activates off the cycle. A bit like with Holloway, I think there is a safe element to Niemela but I picked him because I believe in the tools and the upside as well.
4th Round, 100th overall: Dylan Peterson, C, US NTDP
Speaking of tools, that is basically what Peterson is right now, a big bag of unrefined tools. He brings size, skating and really impressive hands, but the results often are not quite there. At times this year he looked to me like a player who could not quite think the game well enough to dominate with those tools. Other times, such as at the Five Nations, he seemed more effective in a simplified role, such as in front of the net on the powerplay and as a match-up centre against U18 opponents. He is well worth the bet at this spot though, and I am intrigued to see how he does at Boston University.
4th Round, 116th overall: Landon Slaggert, C/W, US NTDP
Slaggert is not quite as toolsy as Peterson, but he can stand out even on a team like the NTDP. Good size, very good skater, moves well and can really turn the corner on defenders with power and control, all of which makes him dynamic in a way I expected Luke Tuch to be. All of this was apparent when you watched him this year, especially at the Five Nations where he was at times the US team's best player. But the production overall just was not quite there, so while I liked him more than a guy like Tuch, the results are confusing. Notre Dame is a good place for him where he will be able to continue his well rounded game but with enough ice time to work on whatever is holding back his offence.
4th Round, 117th overall: Colby Ambrosio, C, Tri-City Storm
Basically the exact opposite of Peterson, Ambrosio is not toolsy but has worked extremely hard to become a prospect. He is small and slight, and quick and darting but not yet a balanced skater, but still, all he does is produce, putting up 26 goals and 50 points in 48 games on an middle of the road USHL team, creating offence and driving play whenever I saw him. Off to Boston College next year, Ambrosio will probably end up on the wing and needs to work on his strength, but I would expect he puts up numbers in college quickly.
5th Round, 146th overall: Trevor Kuntar, C, Youngstown
Another player who has worked extremely hard to become a prospect, Kuntar passed through last year and came back as maybe the best player not on the Chicago Steel to play in the USHL. Although only 6'0", Kuntar plays a heavy, direct style of game, driving hard to the net and putting a lot of pucks on goal. He was especially noticeable at the World Junior A Challenge, a valuable test of his ability to keep up with the pace as it increases. Kuntar is off to Harvard, which is one of the best development options around these days.
5th Round, 148th overall: Quinn Olson, LW, University of Minnesota-Duluth
The first re-entry on the list and the first player I will admit to not having a great feel for. Olson was a third round pick in 2019 after playing on Dylan Holloway's wing in the AJHL, and had a solid but unspectacular freshman year at Duluth. From what I have seen and read, Olson is quick and plays a good complimentary game, and I am encouraged that he produced reasonably well in a bottom six role after the big jump from the AJHL. I am also placing a bet on Boston's track record of taking guys with similar profiles like Studnicka, Heinen and Bjork and turning them into very good value.
6th Round, 166th overall: Nikita Nesterenko, C, Chiliwack
Another re-entry, Nesterenko is another bet on a player who made a significant jump - in this case from prep school in New Jersey to the BCHL - in his D+1 season and performed well. Nesterenko is very raw, grew very late, and missed being 2020 eligible by less than a week, so to put up a point per game in the BCHL is a good start. He also flashed high end skills at Minnesota Wild development camp last summer. Nesterenko (who is from Brooklyn, by the way), is a long-term play - he is 6'1" and very physically underdeveloped, but has outstanding hands and vision, and the creativity of a real centre. Like Ambrosio, he is off to Boston College.
6th Round, 170th overall: Cole Brady, G, Fargo
A fifth round pick last year by New Jersey, Brady jumped from the NAHL to the USHL this past season and performed just ok. Early reports were that he was turning heads for his size and athleticism - 6'5", 174lbs - but he tailed off a bit in the second half. He is off to Arizona State in the fall, which did well developing Joey Daccord into a legitimate goalie prospect. Goalies are goalies, you cannot make 13 picks and not roll the dice on one.
6th Round, 179th overall: Pavel Tyutnev, C, Loko Yaroslavl
Like Niemela, Tyutnev was a relative unknown to me until he stood out at the Five Nations (and retroactively at the World Junior A Challenge), flashing high-end hands, creativity and problem solving ability, and enough skating for it to translate. In the MHL he played and produced less, although those who tracked his underlying metrics suggest he performed very well when given the opportunity. He probably does not stick at centre, but I am intrigued by the upside, especially given his strong performance against his international peers.
7th Round, 190th overall: Santeri Hatakka, D, Ilves
Another re-entry and also another player who perhaps has showed better internationally than in league play, Hatakka leveraged a strong U18s last year into a late pick with San Jose. This year was a mixed bag - a depth role in Liiga, good but unspectacular performance at the WJC and flashes of offence in Mestis. My assessment is he is smart and mobile, reliable defensively but without a standout tool, the kind of prospect who I can easily see cracking Doug Wilson's Sharks in a depth role in the not too distant future.
7th Round, 193rd overall: Gage Goncalves, C, Everett
I am surprised Goncalves slipped this far after a very good season in the WHL. Undrafted last year after scoring one goal as a 17 year old, Goncalves broke out with 33 goals and 71 points in 60 games, flashing some real skill in the process. Also never drafted into the WHL, Goncalves has a high work rate, very good hands and shot, gets high grades for his intelligence and compete, and has a raw frame at 6'1" and about 170lbs. The skating needs work but I think the stride is ok, even if it can be a bit hunched over, and I am betting on him to continue overachieving, especially as he has been on social media showcasing his off-season workout regiment of late.
7th Round, 210th overall: Mason Lohrei, D, Green Bay
One of the few benefits of COVID-19 is getting to watch more hockey than I have in 15 years, and Lohrei is a product of that. Listed in the 130s on CSS, and not even mentioned in other draft guides I saw, Lohrei seems like an intriguing under the radar pick at this late stage in the draft. He went undrafted last year out of prep school, but was one of the most productive defencemen in the USHL, scoring around a point per game from early November onwards. He also grew quite late, having been 6'1" and 150lbs when he committed to Ohio State two years ago, but now standing at 6'4"or 6'5". Watching him, it can be hard to project his upside - he is only an average skater, and creates much of his offence from the blueline rather than in transition. He looks a bit like Patrick Wiercioch out there, relying on reach and intelligence, but later in the year he showed increasing confidence to try to beat guys one-on-one as well. It is a big swing but there are a lot of reasons to be intrigued.
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