Hossa
Registered User
So it's been 5 years and this series is making the rounds. It was the first of two consecutive Conference Finals eliminations in a failed bid to land a second Cup with a core in its prime. And after a couple lean drafts, this was a big year to try and re-stock a bit.
First Round, 28th Overall: Jakub Vrana
Status: NHL Player
Vrana was the last player in my cluster of potential late first round options that I wanted, with Larkin, Pastrnak, Schmaltz and Sanheim all considerations. Had Vrana not been there, I probably would have traded back. At this point, he'd been around the prospect world for years, twice at the WJC and thrive at the U18s, and was over-scouted as a result. But the talent was there, as he seemed to score goals almost anywhere and that's continued into the NHL. The only lesson here is I maybe should have traded up for Larkin or Pastrnak, although Vrana actually went higher than both in the NHL.
Second Round, 34th Overall: Jack Dougherty
Status: Minor Leaguer
Trading down from the 28th had Vrana been gone would have made little sense with three picks in the 30s. Dougherty was the first of a couple back to back guys, and after some success with USNTDP picks like Faulk, Palmieri and Miller, I was comfortable taking Dougherty who profiled as a mobile two-way guy at the time. He slipped a bit on draft day but landed in Nashville, then the mecca of blueline development, but Dougherty was only so-so in a year at Wisconsin, better but not amazing in Portland, and has yet to be called up to the NHL after three pro seasons. He's a competent right-shot D who can move, so he isn't totally done, but almost.
Second Round, 35th Overall: John Quenneville
Status: AAAA NHL/AHLer
Quenneville emerged out of nowhere to slide into the NHL first round in his draft year, with a good showing in a reserve role at the U18s key to that. The road since then has been mixed - the talent is clearly there, the conditioning and production has wavered. At this point, he has nothing left to prove in the AHL but hasn't been able to earn real ice time in the NHL. A trade last week to Chicago could give him an opportunity, but quad-A wingers are a dime a dozen.
Second Round, 37th Overall: Brendan Lemieux
Status: NHLer
The third pick in four selections, Lemieux was actually dealt at the deadline a few years ago for Andrew Ladd and has since gone on to establish himself as a solid bottom six NHLer. By now the profile is well known, Lemieux plays like his father and can score some goals too, although how many come in the NHL is an open question. A solid second round selection.
Taken together, these three early second rounders didn't work out so well. None is likely to ever make much of an NHL impact, and neither Quenneville or Dougherty were moved at value. The rest of the second round is mostly a wasteland but with the very notable exception of Brayden Point, who I don't recall considering. Two players that were on my shortlist were Eric Cornel and Brett Pollock, neither of whom worked out.
Third Round, 70th Overall: Jake Walman
Status: Prospect, maybe
At the time, Walman was a swing for the fences kind of pick, coming out of Junior A and with some legal issues hanging over his head as well. Very quickly he emerged as a top prospect, thriving in college and even being coveted for a WJC spot by both the US and Canada, although due to injury he subsequently represented neither. While his pro career started well, and battling with Vince Dunn for a spot with the Blues, the lack of an AHL affiliate led to a lost season in 2017-18, and last year he was just bad. The tools are there, but the development is way off track now. Little else of note followed him in the third round though.
Fourth Round, 94th Overall: Ben Thomas
Status: Minor Leaguer
At one point in his draft year, Thomas and Travis Sanheim were both drawing scouts' attention for coming out of nowhere in Calgary, and it was actually Thomas who put up more points. But Sanheim stood out more at the U18s, eventually went in the first round, to the WJC and now has a nice bridge deal in the NHL. After an iffy final couple years of junior, Thomas has settled into a top four role with Syracuse of the AHL, but is in a similar situation to Dougherty - a useful RHD with little upside left.
Fourth Round, 111th Overall: Miles Gendron
Status: Bust
Gendron had a similar profile at the time to Walman, a plus-skater who played lower level hockey. Gendron had the added cache of being a recent convert to defence, which scares the hell out of me after using a second rounder on Jackson Lacombe last week. After a year in the BCHL, Gendron had a fine NCAA at UConn and earned an AHL/ECHL deal. It's possible he pulls a Justin Holl (another former Canucks 4th rounder) and puts his tools to better use as a pro, but I would be surprised.
Fourth Round, 119th overall: Jacob Middleton
Status: Borderline NHLer
The third of three blueliners taken in the fourth round, Middleton slipped the most in the draft, was actually released in a roster crunch and yet is the only one to make it to the NHL. Once a highly touted minor midget player, Middleton stagnated in junior but has done well in San Jose's system as a pro, especially as his mobility improved. Unlikely to ever become a notable NHLer, but could carve out a career as a AAAA-type.
Conclusion
All in all, not a great representation of my drafting ability. Nailing a late first round pick is important, especially considering the statistical drop-off in probable returns by that range. But none of the three second rounders yielded much value for the club, nor did the later picks, and while guys like Quenneville and Walman still have potential - they're legitimately talented players who have, to varying degrees, flashed impact potential at the AHL level - the clock will soon strike midnight.
That being said, I'm not sure there are major lessons to draw from this draft class other than not over-estimating the value of second and fourth round picks. Obviously in retrospect, a bias against smaller players with then-average skating probably made me discount Point, but we also passed on Jayce Hawryluk (later acquired and then dealt again), who had similarities and is no better off than Quenneville at this stage. And while Dougherty didn't pan out, his NTDP teammates who went in the same range - Ryan Collins, Jon McLeod and Jack Glover - were all bigger busts.
So, not a great draft, but it produced a very good NHLer, a useful role player, a few guys who still have a chance to carve out a career, and some players like Dougherty and Thomas who will have perfectly serviceable pro careers, just not in the NHL. Could be better but could have been worse.
First Round, 28th Overall: Jakub Vrana
Status: NHL Player
Vrana was the last player in my cluster of potential late first round options that I wanted, with Larkin, Pastrnak, Schmaltz and Sanheim all considerations. Had Vrana not been there, I probably would have traded back. At this point, he'd been around the prospect world for years, twice at the WJC and thrive at the U18s, and was over-scouted as a result. But the talent was there, as he seemed to score goals almost anywhere and that's continued into the NHL. The only lesson here is I maybe should have traded up for Larkin or Pastrnak, although Vrana actually went higher than both in the NHL.
Second Round, 34th Overall: Jack Dougherty
Status: Minor Leaguer
Trading down from the 28th had Vrana been gone would have made little sense with three picks in the 30s. Dougherty was the first of a couple back to back guys, and after some success with USNTDP picks like Faulk, Palmieri and Miller, I was comfortable taking Dougherty who profiled as a mobile two-way guy at the time. He slipped a bit on draft day but landed in Nashville, then the mecca of blueline development, but Dougherty was only so-so in a year at Wisconsin, better but not amazing in Portland, and has yet to be called up to the NHL after three pro seasons. He's a competent right-shot D who can move, so he isn't totally done, but almost.
Second Round, 35th Overall: John Quenneville
Status: AAAA NHL/AHLer
Quenneville emerged out of nowhere to slide into the NHL first round in his draft year, with a good showing in a reserve role at the U18s key to that. The road since then has been mixed - the talent is clearly there, the conditioning and production has wavered. At this point, he has nothing left to prove in the AHL but hasn't been able to earn real ice time in the NHL. A trade last week to Chicago could give him an opportunity, but quad-A wingers are a dime a dozen.
Second Round, 37th Overall: Brendan Lemieux
Status: NHLer
The third pick in four selections, Lemieux was actually dealt at the deadline a few years ago for Andrew Ladd and has since gone on to establish himself as a solid bottom six NHLer. By now the profile is well known, Lemieux plays like his father and can score some goals too, although how many come in the NHL is an open question. A solid second round selection.
Taken together, these three early second rounders didn't work out so well. None is likely to ever make much of an NHL impact, and neither Quenneville or Dougherty were moved at value. The rest of the second round is mostly a wasteland but with the very notable exception of Brayden Point, who I don't recall considering. Two players that were on my shortlist were Eric Cornel and Brett Pollock, neither of whom worked out.
Third Round, 70th Overall: Jake Walman
Status: Prospect, maybe
At the time, Walman was a swing for the fences kind of pick, coming out of Junior A and with some legal issues hanging over his head as well. Very quickly he emerged as a top prospect, thriving in college and even being coveted for a WJC spot by both the US and Canada, although due to injury he subsequently represented neither. While his pro career started well, and battling with Vince Dunn for a spot with the Blues, the lack of an AHL affiliate led to a lost season in 2017-18, and last year he was just bad. The tools are there, but the development is way off track now. Little else of note followed him in the third round though.
Fourth Round, 94th Overall: Ben Thomas
Status: Minor Leaguer
At one point in his draft year, Thomas and Travis Sanheim were both drawing scouts' attention for coming out of nowhere in Calgary, and it was actually Thomas who put up more points. But Sanheim stood out more at the U18s, eventually went in the first round, to the WJC and now has a nice bridge deal in the NHL. After an iffy final couple years of junior, Thomas has settled into a top four role with Syracuse of the AHL, but is in a similar situation to Dougherty - a useful RHD with little upside left.
Fourth Round, 111th Overall: Miles Gendron
Status: Bust
Gendron had a similar profile at the time to Walman, a plus-skater who played lower level hockey. Gendron had the added cache of being a recent convert to defence, which scares the hell out of me after using a second rounder on Jackson Lacombe last week. After a year in the BCHL, Gendron had a fine NCAA at UConn and earned an AHL/ECHL deal. It's possible he pulls a Justin Holl (another former Canucks 4th rounder) and puts his tools to better use as a pro, but I would be surprised.
Fourth Round, 119th overall: Jacob Middleton
Status: Borderline NHLer
The third of three blueliners taken in the fourth round, Middleton slipped the most in the draft, was actually released in a roster crunch and yet is the only one to make it to the NHL. Once a highly touted minor midget player, Middleton stagnated in junior but has done well in San Jose's system as a pro, especially as his mobility improved. Unlikely to ever become a notable NHLer, but could carve out a career as a AAAA-type.
Conclusion
All in all, not a great representation of my drafting ability. Nailing a late first round pick is important, especially considering the statistical drop-off in probable returns by that range. But none of the three second rounders yielded much value for the club, nor did the later picks, and while guys like Quenneville and Walman still have potential - they're legitimately talented players who have, to varying degrees, flashed impact potential at the AHL level - the clock will soon strike midnight.
That being said, I'm not sure there are major lessons to draw from this draft class other than not over-estimating the value of second and fourth round picks. Obviously in retrospect, a bias against smaller players with then-average skating probably made me discount Point, but we also passed on Jayce Hawryluk (later acquired and then dealt again), who had similarities and is no better off than Quenneville at this stage. And while Dougherty didn't pan out, his NTDP teammates who went in the same range - Ryan Collins, Jon McLeod and Jack Glover - were all bigger busts.
So, not a great draft, but it produced a very good NHLer, a useful role player, a few guys who still have a chance to carve out a career, and some players like Dougherty and Thomas who will have perfectly serviceable pro careers, just not in the NHL. Could be better but could have been worse.
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