Prospect Info: HFCF Prospect Poll: #3

[Lunatik]

We did this last summer, lets do it again.

I am going to start with some guidelines.

To be considered a prospect in these polls they must be under 26 (as of July 1st, 2015) and have fewer than 80 games of NHL experience (including playoffs).

I will set polls to expire in 48 hours. After 48 hours a winner shall be declared unless the winner has less than a 10 vote lead. At which point there will be a 24 poll that pits anyone within 10 votes of first against the leader. There will not be multiple runoff-polls so a win by 1 in a run-off poll will be final. After a winner is declared the next poll will be put up at my earliest convenience.

The current plan is vote on all 37 eligible prospects, but if participation dissipates it may stop sooner.

List of eligible prospects:
Agostino, Ken
Andersson, Rasmus
Arnold, Bill
Bennett, Sam
Bruce, Rily
Carroll, Austin
Culkin, Ryan
DeBlouw, Matt
Elson, Turner
Ferland, Micheal
Gillies, Jon
Gilmour, John
Granlund, Markus
Grant, Derek
Harrison, Tim
Hathaway, Garnet
Hickey, Brandon
Jankowski, Mark
Jooris, Josh
Kanzig, Keegan
Karnaukhov, Pavel
Klimchuk, Morgan
Kulak, Brett
Kylington, Oliver
Mangiapane, Andrew
McDonald, Mason
Morrison, Kenney
Ollas-Mattsson, Adam
Ortio, Joni
Poirier, Emile
Rafikov, Rushan
Shore, Drew
Sieloff, Patrick
Smith, Hunter
Van Brabant, Bryce
Wolf, David
Wotherspoon, Tyler

Rankings:
1. Sam Bennett http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1927891
2. Emile Poirier http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1928091

Click to read more...

 

[Lunatik]

Voted Gillies again.

 

[Lunatik]

Also continue Ferland argument here.

Ferland has shown zero consistency as a professional.
Year 1: Was beyond terrible and got sent to the ECHL where he was a healthy scratch before returning to junior.
Year 2: slow start that saw him pointless in 13, then got hot before getting injured
Year 3: hot start, got called up and then was terrible when he was sent back down. Like REALLY terrible (6 points in 3 months). Then had a strong playoff.

When I have seen his inconsistency at the AHL level, why would I bank on him being better in the NHL? Frankly I wouldn't.

Agreed. Ferlands playoff run kinda reminds me of when Sven was recalled and had a strong few games. I think his playoffs this year really inflated everyone's expectations of him. Personally, I don't think he'll make the Flames this year off the bat. He'll be recalled at some point, but he won't be here on the season opener.

I think he makes the team because of the playoffs, but not as more than a 4th liner or 13th/14th forward. But I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to sneak him through on waivers either.

Ferland was very effective in the Vancouver series. He was perhaps the most impactful player, bar none. However, you really have to acknowledge the fact that his game is really suited to a playoff series. His hits in the first game changed the way the second game was played, and so on. By the time they got to Calgary, the Canucks' D weren't able to properly focus on moving the puck, and coughed the puck up over and over again as a result. And of course, Ferland fed off that and victimized them even more.

In the regular season, he can throw plenty of hits in his 15 minutes of ice-time, and maybe make a difference by the third period... but next game he's starting from scratch again. His best chance to make a difference will be the same as anyone else, which is by his play with the puck and helping the team generate chances. I'm not sure whether that will be as easy without that game-to-game intimidation factor.

Limiting Ferland's potential due to his inconsistencies as a pro is a shortsighted thing to do in my opinion due to his past. He has just 90 games of pro experience under his belt and has overcome some serious personal issues over the past two years (drinking issues, conditioning issues, legal issues). He has the physical tools to become a legitimate impact player on this roster given his size, strength, shot, nastiness and skating ability. He has shown a great deal of maturity and personal growth recently and with that has come a much better hockey player. I would not bet against him at this point.

Players like Ferland are rarely if ever consistent. The number one complaint about Lucic, who's probably the premier power forward in the league at the moment, is consistency; he'll dominate and completely take over a game but then disappear for the next five. Just the nature of the playing style; very hard to keep that kind of energy up in an 82 game season.

Ferland seems to feed on emotion. I can see him having a relatively quiet regular season, playing maybe two out of every three games. But if the Flames make the playoffs, he's invaluable and becomes a mainstay.

But it's also entirely possible Hartley puts him alongside Bennett on the third line, so it's still way too soon to rule out top nine potential with him.

I'm not ruling out top 9 potential. I just doubt he ever becomes a top 6 guy.

I agree Calculon, not saying that's what is going to happen but that's it's possible. Ferland is a late bloomer and still largely developing, he's a good skater and has an excellent shot, his ceiling is unknown but as of now I'd say it's most likely he's a third line winger, like a more physical Jones.

 

[Anglesmith]

Time for the Providence kids.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Jim Jillies, again.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Kylington again. Klimchuk and Gillies are solid picks though.

 

[1989]

What did Ortio do to fall behind Gillies? Something tangible, or is it shiny new toy syndrome?

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

What did Ortio do to fall behind Gillies? Something tangible, or is it shiny new toy syndrome?

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Lunatik]

What did Ortio do to fall behind Gillies? Something tangible, or is it shiny new toy syndrome?

Seriously? What hasn't Gillies done to surpass Ortio?

Gillies is widely considered one of the best goaltending prospects in the NHL. All he has done is put up incredible numbers year after year after year and has capped off his college career by being the Frozen Four MVP. His progress and consistency have been by all accounts off the charts.

Also after 3 years in the organization he is not a "shiny new toy".

 

[Anglesmith]

What did Ortio do to fall behind Gillies? Something tangible, or is it shiny new toy syndrome?

It's not about that. Gillies' freshman year made his value skyrocket. He's looked so far like a rare talent. Ortio has been great, too, but one has to be valued higher.

 

[DCDM]

Gillies again

 

[1989]

Seriously? What hasn't Gillies done to surpass Ortio?

Gillies is widely considered one of the best goaltending prospects in the NHL. All he has done is put up incredible numbers year after year after year and has capped off his college career by being the Frozen Four MVP. His progress and consistency have been by all accounts off the charts.

Also after 3 years in the organization he is not a "shiny new toy".

It's not about that. Gillies' freshman year made his value skyrocket. He's looked so far like a rare talent. Ortio has been great, too, but one has to be valued higher.

NHL experience (and a decent showing, at that) doesn't somehow trump great college/junior numbers? It's not like Ortio is completely bereft of potential or ability.

Especially considering the irregularity of the position's most common development curve, I take the player who has seen NHL ice and won games at that level. There's been many great goaltending prospects in junior who flop at the NHL level such as Pogge, Kidd, Hirsch, Noronen, Raycroft, and like 90%+ of WJC starters...
I'm not saying I want that to happen nor do I foresee that really happening to Gillies, but it's definitely easy to contest ranking Gillies above Ortio keeping sample size in mind.

 

[Anglesmith]

NHL experience (and a decent showing, at that) doesn't somehow trump great college/junior numbers? It's not like Ortio is completely bereft of potential or ability.

Especially considering the irregularity of the position's most common development curve, I take the player who has seen NHL ice and won games at that level. There's been many great goaltending prospects in junior who flop at the NHL level such as Pogge, Kidd, Hirsch, Noronen.
I'm not saying I want that to happen nor do I foresee that really happening to Gillies, but it's definitely easy to contest ranking Gillies above Ortio keeping sample size in mind.

Everything you say is true, but in the end it's a judgement call. If I have a gun to my head, and have to pick one of these two prospect goalies to keep, with the other being fired into the sun, I pick Gillies. I just have more confidence in him to become an elite NHL starter. A lot of that has to do with his size.

And isn't that what this poll is about? Gathering opinions on what is inherently a subjective topic?

You're right, NHL experience is a boost for Ortio. It shows he's more likely to reach his ceiling than Gillies. However, these rankings are about both ceiling and likelihood to reach it. I really do think that Gillies' ceiling is above Ortio, and I don't currently harbour that much doubt that he'll reach it.

 

[Lunatik]

NHL experience (and a decent showing, at that) doesn't somehow trump great college/junior numbers? It's not like Ortio is completely bereft of potential or ability.

Especially considering the irregularity of the position's most common development curve, I take the player who has seen NHL ice and won games at that level. There's been many great goaltending prospects in junior who flop at the NHL level such as Pogge, Kidd, Hirsch, Noronen.
I'm not saying I want that to happen nor do I foresee that really happening to Gillies, but it's definitely easy to contest ranking Gillies above Ortio keeping sample size in mind.

Its about potential. Why would I punish Gillies for being younger and less experienced. By that logic Drew Shore should be ahead of Sam Bennett.

Gillies is widely considered a top 5 goaltending prospect in the NHL, even the idiots on the main board of HF voted him top 5. Ortio isn't even close to that. Ortio at best has 1B potential and that is only if everything goes right. Gillies has star potential, he is seen by most as the future #1 of the Flames.

That is why Gillies will be voted ahead of Ortio. It's also why McDonald should be voted ahead of Ortio too.

Quite frankly I wouldn't be shocked if when Ortio is sent down that Gillies steals the starting job in Stockton this year.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Everything you say is true, but in the end it's a judgement call. If I have a gun to my head, and have to pick one of these two prospect goalies to keep, with the other being fired into the sun, I pick Gillies. I just have more confidence in him to become an elite NHL starter. A lot of that has to do with his size.

And isn't that what this poll is about? Gathering opinions on what is inherently a subjective topic?

You're right, NHL experience is a boost for Ortio. It shows he's more likely to reach his ceiling than Gillies. However, these rankings are about both ceiling and likelihood to reach it. I really do think that Gillies' ceiling is above Ortio, and I don't currently harbour that much doubt that he'll reach it.

This is a really good explanation. Ortio is more proven at the professional level and absolutely deserves credit for that. However Gillies' pedigree and athletic tools cannot be ignored.

If both Gillies and Ortio hit their ceiling, I think Gillies is higher and he's a top 15 goalie in the NHL. While Ortio has proven more today, I don't see much bust factor in Gillies game and I think he's likely to make the NHL in a couple years. I to give the edge to Gillies.

Lucky for us we have both guys.

 

[Calculon]

No one really seems to take into account how the stellar defensive style of Providence could have impacted Gillies (not an issue for Jankowski however). His play in the world juniors was lackluster at best, especially when compared to Gibson (although Gibson had the better team).

With him starting in front of a largely inexperienced blue line in Stockton, wouldn't be at all surprised if he saw ECHL time at some point. He's got potential, no question, but given goalies in general, are wildcards. At this point, I'll take Ortio over him easily. But for the purposes of this poll, it's still Kylington.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

NHL experience (and a decent showing, at that) doesn't somehow trump great college/junior numbers? It's not like Ortio is completely bereft of potential or ability.

I don't think so. If Ortio's experience had been a full year as starter, putting up good numbers, maybe. But he's played a handful of NHL games with mediocre numbers, which I don't think warrant rating him above the guy who has been the best goalie in the NCAA over the course of three years.

Gillies' numbers, defensive team/league or not, have been absolutely stunning consistently - barring a short stint where he was injured. Ortio has done really well for stretches, and not so well for others.

I wouldn't scoff at someone voting Ortio, but I think there is very easily an argument for Gillies over Ortio.

 

[QcFlames12]

Voted Jankowski just due to peak potential value, it was either him or Kylington. After that I would rank Gilles, Ortio, Klimchuk, Wotherspoon.

 

[CraigsList]

Gillies for me.

 

[Richi]

Voted Kylington.

Though I agree that Gillies is a great prospect to have, predicting the development and upside of goalies is rather impossible and thus it is kind of hard to vote for them before any of our better forward/defensive prospects.

And I really don't understand why Gillies received that many votes while McDonald gets snubbed. McDonald does have the slightly higher upside and is on track in his development. That should make him the better prospect then Gillies.

 

[Mobiandi]

It's not about that. Gillies' freshman year made his value skyrocket. He's looked so far like a rare talent. Ortio has been great, too, but one has to be valued higher.

Precisely why I voted for Gillies. I'm not looking at these polls in a "GTMH" way (otherwise it'd absolutely be Ortio for me right now), but rather as who has the highest trade value atm.

 

[Anglesmith]

Precisely why I voted for Gillies. I'm not looking at these polls in a "GTMH" way (otherwise it'd absolutely be Ortio for me right now), but rather as who has the highest trade value atm.

But... I was talking about his value to the Flames and in the eyes of fans, not in terms of the trade market. I stand by what I said. If I could only keep one, I'd keep Gillies.

 

[Mobiandi]

But... I was talking about his value to the Flames and in the eyes of fans, not in terms of the trade market. I stand by what I said. If I could only keep one, I'd keep Gillies.

Misunderstood that then. If I had to choose who's more valuable for us, I still can't say I'd choose Gillies simply because he's not nearly as close to being NHL ready and whether he reaches his potential is still up in the air. Ortio flatters to deceive, but he'd be a competent goalie for us at this point in time and down the road imo. Although, I expect that by the end of next season I'll have a different opinion

 

[Anglesmith]

Misunderstood that then. If I had to choose who's more valuable for us, I still can't say I'd choose Gillies simply because he's not nearly as close to being NHL ready and whether he reaches his potential is still up in the air. Ortio flatters to deceive, but he'd be a competent goalie for us at this point in time and down the road imo. Although, I expect that by the end of next season I'll have a different opinion

Just so we're clear, I'm not saying Ortio would become our starting goalie. I'm not saying we get rid of our current NHL roster and take Ortio or Gillies to be the starter right now. The GTMH mentality refers only to our prospect pool. For each pick, you pretend all of the guys already ranked (Bennett and Poirier) don't exist, but out of all the rest of the prospects, you have to pick one. Who do you pick? At this point, I take Gillies. I think he's the most impressive of the prospects. Ortio being ready sooner shouldn't have any bearing on the quality of the prospect other than the lower bust-potential.

 

[SaintMorose]

El Jankorino de Markus

Wish he'd put up more points when I don't watch him but every time I do + this year of dev camp I missed he continues to look like a stud 6'4 Centreman