HFBoards TOP 50 Prospects Ranking #18 (closed)

[GOALOFSSON]

He decided to pursue a hockey career at a very "old" age and since then, his development curve has been really steep. We actually have no idea how good this guy can be

After drafting Quinn I remember hearing something similar. Played multiple sports or something and didn't fully commit to hockey at a bit of an older age. I think he had a minor growth spurt too around 15 or 16.

His curve shot up in his draft year, kind of coming close to triple his prior point totals, and over quadrupling his goal totals.

I believe he was bothered by a bit of an injury during the WJC and his time in the AHL. Excited to see what he does this year.

 

[Xspyrit]

After drafting Quinn I remember hearing something similar. Played multiple sports or something and didn't fully commit to hockey at a bit of an older age. I think he had a minor growth spurt too around 15 or 16.

His curve shot up in his draft year, kind of coming close to triple his prior point totals, and over quadrupling his goal totals.

I believe he was bothered by a bit of an injury during the WJC and his time in the AHL. Excited to see what he does this year.

IIRC he was going to go for Baseball but finally decided on hockey

He couldn't play in the WJC this year, missing the cut by a few weeks. He played the year before though and had 4 goals, 7 points in 5 games

He never played in the AHL (and most likely won't). He came straight to the NHL after making the NCAA finals.

 

[majormajor]

Yes add Pinto

I will start considering him in a few rounds



He decided to pursue a hockey career at a very "old" age and since then, his development curve has been really steep. We actually have no idea how good this guy can be

I know small sample size and everything but I have noticed this recently in Points/60 for forwards with at least 100 minutes at EV :

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

1 Connor McDavid
2 Artemi Panarin
3 Brad Marchand
4 Auston Matthews
5 Shane Pinto
6 Max Pacioretty
7 Mitchell Marner
8 Mark Stone
9 Leon Draisaitl
10 Jason Spezza
11 Jason Robertson
12 Nathan MacKinnon
13 Mikko Rantanen
14 Marcus Foligno
15 Aleksander Barkov
16 Jakub Vrana
17 Mats Zuccarello
18 Jonathan Huberdeau
19 Carter Verhaeghe
20 Anthony Duclair

Like another poster had noted, Pinto on-ice SH% was higher than the norm though so it will most likely go down, but his efficiency was due to his line not f***ing around and capitalizing on opportunities. His most common linemates were Tim Stutzle, Connor Brown, Nick Paul and Alex Formenton

All that being said, I think his offensive potential is underrated.

I don't see huge offensive potential from Pinto himself, that on ice SH% will fall by half.

But he is the type of super-strong defensive pivot that can tilt the ice for his team, and he'll get his points if you put him with wingers that can score.

 

[majormajor]

I'm going to say it @amnesiac. Every year this poll in particular is overly biased towards older prospects.

Peyton Krebs is 27 months older than Dylan Guenther and just had a comparable scoring pace to him in the WHL. Krebs is going to win the poll, while Guenther isn't even added to the poll yet. We could conceivably have a situation this year where Cole Sillinger will be ranked like 50th and yet make the Blue Jackets out of camp, while Krebs still won't make the Knights roster. Another example is last year when we had Cody Glass go long before Anton Lundell.

 

[lilmaxo]

I'm going to say it @amnesiac. Every year this poll in particular is overly biased towards older prospects.

Peyton Krebs is 27 months older than Dylan Guenther and just had a comparable scoring pace to him in the WHL. Krebs is going to win the poll, while Guenther isn't even added to the poll yet. We could conceivably have a situation this year where Cole Sillinger will be ranked like 50th and yet make the Blue Jackets out of camp, while Krebs still won't make the Knights roster. Another example is last year when we had Cody Glass go long before Anton Lundell.

you’re not wrong, I don’t understand the hype around krebs, i mean he is a good prospect but why is he getting votes before let’s say an Alex turcotte who was drafted 5th overall in the same draft and had similar stats to byfield last year. I know he doesnt have the same body as byfield and age/pedigree etc, but I don’t feel he has regressed, has he ? He plays a reckless game and he has a great hockey IQ

 

[goonybird]

In what world is Marco Rossi a better prospect than Krebs??

I like Rossi. Krebs is fine too. Neither come close to uh Nils Lundkvist (?) though. He's just on another level (?)!

 

[wetcoast]

Why is Clarke even still available?

 

[majormajor]

you’re not wrong, I don’t understand the hype around krebs, i mean he is a good prospect but why is he getting votes before let’s say an Alex turcotte who was drafted 5th overall in the same draft and had similar stats to byfield last year. I know he doesnt have the same body as byfield and age/pedigree etc, but I don’t feel he has regressed, has he ? He plays a reckless game and he has a great hockey IQ

Turcotte would not be my example. He hasn't exactly regressed but there's like a dozen kids around his age who got to play in the AHL last year and did better than him. Krebs might have, we don't know, he only played 5 games at that level. I wouldn't put either of them ahead of the "shiny new toys" - Johnson, Guenther, McTavish, Clarke, Hughes, Edvinsson. I understand some of those guys will disappoint, but unless an older prospect is clearly NHL ready I'm going to be more interested in high upside and the 18 year olds have a lot more runway left to hit high upside.

 

[bishop12]

Perfetti should be top 5. Beniers? lol he's not even top 25. A list built by committee...yikes.

 

[amnesiac]

I'm going to say it @amnesiac. Every year this poll in particular is overly biased towards older prospects.

Peyton Krebs is 27 months older than Dylan Guenther and just had a comparable scoring pace to him in the WHL. Krebs is going to win the poll, while Guenther isn't even added to the poll yet. We could conceivably have a situation this year where Cole Sillinger will be ranked like 50th and yet make the Blue Jackets out of camp, while Krebs still won't make the Knights roster. Another example is last year when we had Cody Glass go long before Anton Lundell.

Guenther wasnt getting any votes (or had 1), so I rotate them in that case.... Also Sillinger may make the Jackets roster but wouldnt make the Knights' , while Krebs would probably make the Jackets too.

but ok, I mean youre not wrong about the examples you gave. On the contrary Im sure we could easily find examples of the opposite too. High picks that end out failing happen all the time. At least in your D+1 you have a full season more to show, and sometimes in the AHL even.

Look at McMichaels stats for example, Connor McMichael Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

14G 27P in 33GP in Hershey at age 20
102P in 52 GP OHL age 19 (D+1)

to me hes a safer bet than a Guenther given what hes shown in the 2 years since his draft. Guenther we have to wait and see.

The fact that this wasnt a deep draft also doesnt help with the "biased" ranking we see so far.

 

[majormajor]

ok, I mean youre not wrong about the examples you gave. On the contrary Im sure we could easily find examples of the opposite too. High picks that end out failing happen all the time. At least in your D+1 you have a full season more to show, and sometimes in the AHL even.

Look at McMichaels stats for example, Connor McMichael Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

14G 27P in 33GP in Hershey at age 20
102P in 52 GP OHL age 19 (D+1)

to me hes a safer bet than a Guenther given what hes shown in the 2 years since his draft. Guenther we have to wait and see.

The fact that this wasnt a deep draft also doesnt help with the "biased" ranking we see so far.

- You can find examples of guys that get overrated on one side or another of the argument. I would argue that it is far more consequential to underrate a future Pettersson or Pastrnak than it is overrate a guy who busts. We need to put more value on high end potential. That means taking chances on boom / bust 18 year olds like Kent Johnson.

- I also think we sometimes overstate how safe an older prospect is just based on stats. I really believe that Zegras and Boldy are super safe, I've seen them play and those guys are NHL caliber. But lower league stats by themselves don't tell us as much. Even last year's AHL stats aren't as informative. McMichael's scoring pace was good by any other year's standard but also below several other guys from his draft year, including Tyler Angle from the 7th round. In any case, I fully expect McMichael to become an NHLer, but probably not a great one.