HFBoards Top 100 NHL Forwards for the 17-18 season

[zeke]

I decided to tabularize and summarize these data, because I had a sneaking suspicion that based on this some teams, especially in the Metro, are rather comically underrated. Here's what I got.

Teams are by default ordered by Goals For this past season, with players that they had last season. (All trades and player losses are noted in the player list).

The "star power" ranking was done as follows: I took every ranking, subtracted 101, and added them up for each team. (So Crosby is worth 100 points, McDavid worth 99, Malkin worth 98, etc. all the way down to Brassard worth 1 point).

16-17 GF|Goals For Ranking|Team|# Of Players|"Star Power" Score|"Star Power" Ranking|Player Rankings
282|1|Pittsburgh Penguins|4|282|3|#1, #3, #29, #89
266|2|Minnesota Wild|5|168|16|#41, #50, #72, #76, #98
263|3|Washington Capitals|4|299|2|#8, #13, #28, #56
256|4|New York Rangers|4+1|85|26|#62, #79, #85 (traded to ARI), #93, HM6
251|5|Toronto Maple Leafs|5|269|5|#14, #39, #42, #58, #83
249|6|Columbus Blue Jackets|3|118|23|#60 (traded to CHI), #61, #64
249|7|Winnipeg Jets|5|343|1|#17, #21, #24, #43, #57
247|8|Edmonton Oilers|2|178|14|#2, #22
244|9|Chicago Blackhawks|3|244|7|#4, #25, #30 (traded to CBJ)
241|10|New York Islanders|1+1|95|24|#6, HM4
240|11|Nashville Predators|4|189|10|#31, #34, #66, #84 (picked by VGK)
235|12|St. Louis Blues|3+1|129|20|#9, #71, #94, HM5
234|13|Tampa Bay Lightning|5|278|4|#7, #10, #63 (traded to MTL), #70, #77
234|14|Boston Bruins|4|264|6|#16, #18, #33, #73
226|15|Calgary Flames|4|171|15|#25, #51, #75, #82
226|16|Montreal Canadiens|3|125|21|#39, #59 (signed by DAL), #80
223|17|Anaheim Ducks|5|234|8|#11, #46, #55, #68, #91
223|18|Dallas Stars|3|208|9|#5, #12, #78
221|19|San Jose Sharks|3|181|12|#23, #45, #54
219|20|Philadelphia Flyers|3|180|13|#32, #44, #47
215|21|Carolina Hurricanes|3|91|25|#48, #74, #90
212|22|Ottawa Senators|4|148|18|#38, #53, #65, #100
210|23|Florida Panthers|3|136|19|#19, #67, #81
207|24|Detroit Red Wings|1|52|28|#49
201|25|Los Angeles Kings|3|159|17|#20, #37, #87
201|26|Buffalo Sabres|4|188|11|#15, #27, #86, #88
197|27|Arizona Coyotes|1|2|30|#99
183|28|New Jersey Devils|2+1|75|27|#35, #92, HM1
182|29|Vancouver Canucks|2+1|37|29|#69, #96, HM2
166|30|Colorado Avalanche|4|124|22|#36, #52, #95, #97
n/a|n/a|Vegas Golden Knights|0+1|0|31|HM3

Based on this, I offer the following initial impressions:

• Minnesota's depth is not getting the credit it deserves by a long shot.
• There's more to Edmonton than McDavid and Draisaitl.
• The Rangers are easily the most ludicrously underrated offensive team in the NHL. The Blue Jackets and Islanders aren't far behind in that regard.
• Winnipeg, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Dallas might be just a teensy bit overrated. Just a little. Also Buffalo.

interesting.

now let's see how your stat power ranking correlates with a better stat for evaluating team performance from last year than points. let's try score adjusted scoring chance for per 60 rank:

Team: SASCF60 - STAR

PIT: #1 - #3 (-2)
TOR: #2 - #5 (-3)
WSH: #3 - #2 (+1)
BOS: #4 - #6 (-2)
SJS: #5 - #12 (-7)
ANA: #6 - #8 (-2)
LAK: #7 - #17 (-10)
CBJ: #8 - #23 (-15)
EDM: #9 - #14 (-5)
DAL: #10 - #9 (+1)
TBL: #11 - #4 (+7)
CHI: #12 - #7 (+5)
MTL: #13 - #21 (-8)
CAR: #14 - #25 (-11)
NYI: #15 - #24 (-9)
WPG: #16 - #1 (+15)
NSH: #17 - #10 (+7)
MIN: #18 - #16 (+2)
NYR: #19 - #26 (-7)
STL: #20 - #20 (--)
PHI: #21 - #13 (+8)
OTT: #22 - #18 (+4)
CGY: #23 - #15 (+8)
FLA: #24 - #19 (+5)
DET: #25 - #28 (-3)
BUF: #26 - #11 (+15)
VAN: #27 - #29 (-2)
NJD: #28 - #27 (+1)
ARZ: #29 - #20 (-1)
COL: #30 - #22 (+8)

now that actually matches up surprisingly well. most teams ranked within 5 slots or so in either column. even more surprising given this doesn't take into account dmen star power.

Now we could list the most and least outranked by HF in comparison to scoring chances created:

1.WPG +15
2.BUF +15
3.PHI +8
4.CGY +8
5.COL +8

WPG and BUF lead the way here by a longshot. Phi and Cal also outrep their production quite a bit. This is even worse for CGY given how much of their offense is driven by dmen not included in this poll.COL is somewhat understandable given that you could say they just gave up last year.

So we might say that WPG, BUF, CGY, PHI have the most overrated forwards in the league by HF. possibly.

on the other end:

1.CBJ -15
2.CAR -11
3.LAK -10
4.NYI -9
5.MTL -8

CBJ stands out all alone here. though the others are well out of whack too.

So we could possibly say that CBJ, CAR, LAK , NYI, MTL have the most underrated forwards on HF.

and tbh, most of those pass the smell test to me.


as for the rangers, their rank is out of whack as well....but that's only because they lost their #1 center on this list in the offseason.

 

[Snippit]

interesting.

now let's see how your stat power ranking correlates with a better stat for evaluating team performance from last year than points. let's try score adjusted scoring chance for per 60 rank:

Team: SASCF60 - STAR

PIT: #1 - #3 (-2)
TOR: #2 - #5 (-3)
WSH: #3 - #2 (+1)
BOS: #4 - #6 (-2)
SJS: #5 - #12 (-7)
ANA: #6 - #8 (-2)
LAK: #7 - #17 (-10)
CBJ: #8 - #23 (-15)
EDM: #9 - #14 (-5)
DAL: #10 - #9 (+1)
TBL: #11 - #4 (+7)
CHI: #12 - #7 (+5)
MTL: #13 - #21 (-8)
CAR: #14 - #25 (-11)
NYI: #15 - #24 (-9)
WPG: #16 - #1 (+15)
NSH: #17 - #10 (+7)
MIN: #18 - #16 (+2)
NYR: #19 - #26 (-7)
STL: #20 - #20 (--)
PHI: #21 - #13 (+8)
OTT: #22 - #18 (+4)
CGY: #23 - #15 (+8)
FLA: #24 - #19 (+5)
DET: #25 - #28 (-3)
BUF: #26 - #11 (+15)
VAN: #27 - #29 (-2)
NJD: #28 - #27 (+1)
ARZ: #29 - #20 (-1)
COL: #30 - #22 (+8)

now that actually matches up surprisingly well. most teams ranked within 5 slots or so in either column. even more surprising given this doesn't take into account dmen star power.

Now we could list the most and least outranked by HF in comparison to scoring chances created:

1.WPG +15
2.BUF +15
3.PHI +8
4.CGY +8
5.COL +8

WPG and BUF lead the way here by a longshot. Phi and Cal also outrep their production quite a bit. This is even worse for CGY given how much of their offense is driven by dmen not included in this poll.COL is somewhat understandable given that you could say they just gave up last year.

So we might say that WPG, BUF, CGY, PHI have the most overrated forwards in the league by HF. possibly.

on the other end:

1.CBJ -15
2.CAR -11
3.LAK -10
4.NYI -9
5.MTL -8

CBJ stands out all alone here. though the others are well out of whack too.

So we could possibly say that CBJ, CAR, LAK , NYI, MTL have the most underrated forwards on HF.

and tbh, most of those pass the smell test to me.


as for the rangers, their rank is out of whack as well....but that's only because they lost their #1 center on this list in the offseason.

IMO, there's just too many other factors to draw reasonable conclusions about which team has underrated/overrated forwards from TEAM stats:

- Team's secondary scoring (team's that score a lot, but by committee, will appear to have players underrated on this list (NYR), teams that don't score a lot but rely on a couple of high end guys will appear to have overrated forwards (BUF))
- Defense from the blueline
- Chemistry
- Coaching/system

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Based on this, I offer the following initial impressions:

• Minnesota's depth is not getting the credit it deserves by a long shot.
• There's more to Edmonton than McDavid and Draisaitl.
• The Rangers are easily the most ludicrously underrated offensive team in the NHL. The Blue Jackets and Islanders aren't far behind in that regard.
• Winnipeg, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Dallas might be just a teensy bit overrated. Just a little. Also Buffalo.

I don't think Jets are overrated. Having a great top 6 doesn't make the bottom 6 any better. Also the PP is still a joke compared to the player talent available (yet Maurice gets an extension...)

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Tavates continues to be extremely overrated.

 

[Alwalys]

>54. Thornton "way too high"

he's easily top 10 imo

jumbo is still capable of a top 10 performance, but i would never say easily. the knee is going to be a big question mark.

 

[Maukkis]

Based on this, I offer the following initial impressions:

• Minnesota's depth is not getting the credit it deserves by a long shot.
• There's more to Edmonton than McDavid and Draisaitl.
• The Rangers are easily the most ludicrously underrated offensive team in the NHL. The Blue Jackets and Islanders aren't far behind in that regard.
• Winnipeg, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Dallas might be just a teensy bit overrated. Just a little. Also Buffalo.

Winnipeg's five forwards on the list combined for 140 goals last season, so I wouldn't go as far as saying that they are overrated. For reference, the rest of the forwards scored a grand total of 71 goals. If you do this comparision (top 5 goalscoring forwards vs. all other forwards) for other teams, I'd assume that you wouldn't see other teams having a 66-34 split. Aside from two or three guys, the secondary scoring was not there last year (among other things... take note, Paul).

 

[Viqsi]

IMO, there's just too many other factors to draw reasonable conclusions about which team has underrated/overrated forwards from TEAM stats:

- Team's secondary scoring (team's that score a lot, but by committee, will appear to have players underrated on this list (NYR), teams that don't score a lot but rely on a couple of high end guys will appear to have overrated forwards (BUF))
- Defense from the blueline
- Chemistry
- Coaching/system

I considered the blueline explanation in particular, but discarded it because the blueline is not normally seen as a major offensive play strength for most of the teams that appeared underrated (particularly the New York teams) - and for the one exception to that (the Jackets) the blueline scored all of 41 goals altogether.

Don't get me wrong; I like the idea of our blueline being so all-conqueringly awesome that they could turn any forwards into scoring stars; I just don't think that actually reflects reality.

* * *​

Winnipeg's five forwards on the list combined for 140 goals last season, so I wouldn't go as far as saying that they are overrated.

Columbus's three (from that year) scored 72. Average of 28 goals per forward for WPG versus 24 goals per forward for Columbus. Not that substantial of a gap. Yet Winnipeg's forwards are nearly all in the top-50 (with one exception), and they're ALL ahead of the ones Columbus had that year.

Perhaps they're not exclusively overrated, but there's pretty clearly some kind of impedance mismatch in player ranking here. zeke's work in post #51 (good stuff, btw) certainly suggests that WPG versus CBJ is the most extreme example in play here.

 

[Maukkis]

Columbus's three (from that year) scored 72. Average of 28 goals per forward for WPG versus 24 goals per forward for Columbus. Not that substantial of a gap. Yet Winnipeg's forwards are nearly all in the top-50 (with one exception), and they're ALL ahead of the ones Columbus had that year.

Perhaps they're not exclusively overrated, but there's pretty clearly some kind of impedance mismatch in player ranking here. zeke's work in post #51 (good stuff, btw) certainly suggests that WPG versus CBJ is the most extreme example in play here.

You are wrong. While zeke's post is a good one, it compares teams by using a team stat. On this list are the best 100 forwards in the NHL, which means that the whole point of the ranking is to list the top players, not the depth. In Winnipeg's case, their SCF/60 numbers are MASSIVELY hindered by the fact that last year, our coach deployed two lines incapable of creating offense on their own. The rest of our forwards, minus Perreault, are all on this list.

So, if you are comparing the Blue Jackets and the Jets' forwards who are on the list and say that Winnipeg's are ranked higher than they should be relative to Columbus' guys, the data zeke provided is insufficient as evidence for your claim. Now, I must admit that I am not one to rely on when it comes to advanced stats, but I know this one for sure: even if score-adjusted SCF is a good stat to compare these teams by, it still is a TEAM stat. You were arguing about PLAYERS. There is a disconnect. Now, if this comparision was made so that only the five best guys from each team were compared to each other, then it would make sense. At the same time, the likelihood of any non-Pittsburgh team's top 5 beating Winnipeg's in comparision is nearly non-existent.

 

[zeke]

You are wrong. While zeke's post is a good one, it compares teams by using a team stat. On this list are the best 100 forwards in the NHL, which means that the whole point of the ranking is to list the top players, not the depth. In Winnipeg's case, their SCF/60 numbers are MASSIVELY hindered by the fact that last year, our coach deployed two lines incapable of creating offense on their own. The rest of our forwards, minus Perreault, are all on this list.

So, if you are comparing the Blue Jackets and the Jets' forwards who are on the list and say that Winnipeg's are ranked higher than they should be relative to Columbus' guys, the data zeke provided is insufficient as evidence for your claim. Now, I must admit that I am not one to rely on when it comes to advanced stats, but I know this one for sure: even if score-adjusted SCF is a good stat to compare these teams by, it still is a TEAM stat. You were arguing about PLAYERS. There is a disconnect. Now, if this comparision was made so that only the five best guys from each team were compared to each other, then it would make sense. At the same time, the likelihood of any non-Pittsburgh team's top 5 beating Winnipeg's in comparision is nearly non-existent.

the data is insufficient, no doubt. But the extreme difference might tell us something regardless.

What you have to consider is that the Jets' decision to stack their top-2 lines, instead of spreading out the talent, may have inflated their top forwards' production as much as it made the bottom 6 a wasteland. Not many other teams stack all their good forwards up on two lines like the jets did.

 

[Snippit]

Still early but how are we doing so far?

I think the young guys that we voted in quite early (Matthews, Eichel) are definitely justifying their positions early on.

I'm also glad we kept Ovechkin at a high ranking even though he was slumping. Same with Duchene.

Kadri's high ranking took a lot of flack but he's also justifying his spot.

 

[Martinez]

I thought zetterberg should be in the 30s. I still think that

 

[Raym11]

List is pretty decent, trying not to go too hard on the 6-7 game sample, next summers list is going to see a lot of the old guard sliding down. Kucherov will probably be 1st/2nd best forward quite firmly by end of season

 

[daver]

List is pretty decent, trying not to go too hard on the 6-7 game sample, next summers list is going to see a lot of the old guard sliding down. Kucherov will probably be 1st/2nd best forward quite firmly by end of season

Change this to winger instead of forward and it makes more sense.

 

[bert]

Ovi is still overrated. It´s insane. He´s not the player he used to be.

Matthews is little overrated too in my opinion. Something between 20 - 25.

Rough start for these two predictions haha.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Tavares is probably too high. Maybe ovechkin as well despite a hot start. He's not actually playing that great

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Tavares over Kucherov doesn't look too great right now.

 

[Sasso09]

Giroux needs to be around 15
Tavares and Stamkos around 20
Marchand in 30's
Voracek 30's
Leon and Wheeler in the 40's
Stone and Monahan are too low


Players that will firmly be in the top 100 by seasons end

Sean Couturier
Keller
Hischier
Patrick

Players firmly off this top 100

Coyle
silfverberg
Guentzel ( hes only on there because of the team he plays on)

 

[Snippit]

Thoughts at December mark:
- Eichel, Reinhart haven't earned their spots
- Brayden Schenn is probably a top 50 forward
- Schwartz putting in work
- Pacioretty probably deserves to drop some spots
- Evander Kane definitely is a top 100 forward
- Kucherov deserves to be higher

 

[Pukboy5kroner]

Thoughts at December mark:

- Pacioretty probably deserves to drop some spots

Based on a quick glance, I'd slide Galchenyuk off the list as well.

 

[Tripod]

It shows how quickly things can change.

 

[Beautvillier]

Thoughts at December mark:
- Eichel, Reinhart haven't earned their spots
- Brayden Schenn is probably a top 50 forward
- Schwartz putting in work
- Pacioretty probably deserves to drop some spots
- Evander Kane definitely is a top 100 forward
- Kucherov deserves to be higher

still no love for lee?

 

[djpatm]

Or Gaudreau

 

[Jacko95]

Brayden Point by now looks like a big omission. Top50 scorer and still trending upwards IMO. There could also be an argument for Vlad Namestnikov, though I am not sold on this just being a hot streak by him.

 

[kylbaz]

So we might say that WPG, BUF, CGY, PHI have the most overrated forwards in the league by HF. possibly.

Yes.

 

[Snippit]

Yes.

Winnipeg, Calgary?

Those guys have showed they deserve their spots and then some