So I look over the results of the last 30 matches to see how badly #4 does. And bugger me it's terrible D:. 2/3 of the guys who get it are gone within the first 5 eliminations. 5/6 are gone before the first 10! With a total of FOUR eliminations between them!! I don't think it's possible to be worse!!!
The only runs of note starting at #4 are Rock in '98, where he was 3rd. and Cody in '12 where he was 7th. I do not think I've got a good number.
At least with the women I've got a chance as they don't have a pattern set for that match yet!