Hellebuyck in the Central Division

[Daximus]

Hellebuyck:

SV%: 919
GSAA/60: .33
GAA: 2.5

Shestyorkin:

SV%: .924
GSAA/60: .48
GAA: 2.35

He's also played 10 more games and faced about 362 more shots than Shesterkin. That's 36.2 shots per game. Helle's workload is among the hardest in the league if not the hardest. Jets are among the worst teams at giving up high danger chances too. The guy is basically making the titanic seaworthy again.

 

[Fire Chevy]

He's also played 10 more games and faced about 362 more shots than Shesterkin. That's 36.2 shots per game. Helle's workload is among the hardest in the league if not the hardest. Jets are among the worst teams at giving up high danger chances too. The guy is basically making the titanic seaworthy again.

This hurts because its so true Jets would be bottom of the division if it wasn't for Helly

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Watch Vasilevskiy's last two games and then tell me he's going to win the Vezina because of his division. Vasi has just been flat out better, as good as Hellebuyck is.

 

[jetsforever]

Watch Vasilevskiy's last two games and then tell me he's going to win the Vezina because of his division. Vasi has just been flat out better, as good as Hellebuyck is.

(in case it wasn't clear, I have no problem with Vasi winning - I'm just tired of hearing "X is doing Y really well but it doesn't count because he's in Z division")

 

[jetsforever]

The offense in the Central isn't any worse than it is in other divisions, maybe the East has the most offensive firepower but it's not by much. Comparing the Central with the North is basically a wash. Tampa, Carolina, and Florida have just as good a forward group as any of Edmonton, Toronto, and Winnipeg do. Defense is what makes this debate interesting. I'd probably take four or five defenses from the Central before even considering a North team's defense. Depending on which team Hellebuyck played for his numbers could definitely be better in the Central but it's all obviously hypothetical.

Those teams can beat Edmonton maybe but IMO Toronto and Winnipeg are ahead of Florida and Carolina for forward groups. Those teams aren't the problem though - more the anaemic offences of the bottom teams (Detroit, Columbus, Dallas, etc.). I won't bother to check again but at the original posting time, the Central comfortably had the lowest goals/game.

(again though, this is basically satire )

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He's also played 10 more games and faced about 362 more shots than Shesterkin. That's 36.2 shots per game. Helle's workload is among the hardest in the league if not the hardest. Jets are among the worst teams at giving up high danger chances too. The guy is basically making the titanic seaworthy again.

I’ve heard the excuses before. I tend to think goaltending analysis is very basic. Stop the puck. Winnipeg statistically doesn’t even have one of the worst defenses in the league.

 

[Daximus]

I’ve heard the excuses before. I tend to think goaltending analysis is very basic. Stop the puck. Winnipeg statistically doesn’t even have one of the worst defenses in the league.

So you don't think facing more shots makes a goalies job tougher? Or that not all shots are equal in their difficulty to save?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So you don't think facing more shots makes a goalies job tougher? Or that not all shots are equal in their difficulty to save?

I think it matters, to an extent, but you can always find some stat that paints a player in a better light. Goaltending advanced stats aren’t even very far along. As I said before, stop the puck. What rate do you stop it at? There always seems to be excuses for some of these goalies playing in Canada between Hellebuyck, Markstrom, and Price. I don’t know why. To be fair, Flyers fans do the same thing for Hart, but I’m not very sympathetic to any of these excuses. Everyone can use them. Only some do with regularity.

 

[Romang67]

I’ve heard the excuses before. I tend to think goaltending analysis is very basic. Stop the puck. Winnipeg statistically doesn’t even have one of the worst defenses in the league.

What statistics told you that? Cause we're 3rd worst in xGA/60. 5th worst in SCA/60. And 2nd worst in HDCA/60.

 

[Daximus]

I think it matters, to an extent, but you can always find some stat that paints a player in a better light. Goaltending advanced stats aren’t even very far along. As I said before, stop the puck. What rate do you stop it at? There always seems to be excuses for some of these goalies playing in Canada between Hellebuyck, Markstrom, and Price. I don’t know why. To be fair, Flyers fans do the same thing for Hart, but I’m not very sympathetic to any of these excuses. Everyone can use them. Only some do with regularity.

If you take the simplistic view of just looked at sv% then Vasi is the best goaltender on the planet but anyone can see that his job is certainly a little bit easier because Tampa has arguably the best top 6 defensive core in the league.

If you want to get really simplistic about it then Helle still has more actual saves than any goaltender in the league.

 

[Daximus]

What statistics told you that? Cause we're 3rd worst in xGA/60. 5th worst in SCA/60. And 2nd worst in HDCA/60.

The statistics that paint his goalie in a better light than ours.

 

[Romang67]

The statistics that paint his goalie in a better light than ours.

The only one I can find that doesn't make our defense look atrocious is SA/60. We're merely below average there. We're bottom 10 in FA/60 and CA/60, and bottom 5 in stats that take shot locations and such into account.

Actually, we're better than average in GA/60 too. For obvious reasons.

 

[Daximus]

The only one I can find that doesn't make our defense look atrocious is SA/60. We're merely below average there. We're bottom 10 in FA/60 and CA/60, and bottom 5 in stats that take shot locations and such into account.

Actually, we're better than average in GA/60 too. For obvious reasons.

Yeah without Hellebuyck we are likely a bottom 10 team in the league that can score but likely won't win many games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What statistics told you that? Cause we're 3rd worst in xGA/60. 5th worst in SCA/60. And 2nd worst in HDCA/60.

This is what I mean. You pulled out certain advanced stats that shape that narrative. Using the most basic stats like the amount of goals that go in the net or shots that go on goal, they aren’t. Unless it’s demonstrably clear that a team in front of a goalie is historically awful defensively, I have a hard time overlooking the basic stats of how well a goalie stops the puck. Anyone can use excuses and try to shape a narrative. The goalies that are the best through history usually have the highest SV%, just like the forwards that are the best through history usually score the most points.

 

[Romang67]

This is what I mean. You pulled out certain advanced stats that shape that narrative. Using the most basic stats like the amount of goals that go in the net or shots that go on goal, they aren’t. Unless it’s demonstrably clear that a team in front of a goalie is historically awful defensively, I have a hard time overlooking the basic stats of how well a goalie stops the puck. Anyone can use excuses and try to shape a narrative. The goalies that are the best through history usually have the highest SV%, just like the forwards that are the best through history usually score the most points.

Wait, so you think we should measure team defense strictly on shots against?

That's certainly a take.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

This is what I mean. You pulled out certain advanced stats that shape that narrative. Using the most basic stats like the amount of goals that go in the net or shots that go on goal, they aren’t. Unless it’s demonstrably clear that a team in front of a goalie is historically awful defensively, I have a hard time overlooking the basic stats of how well a goalie stops the puck. Anyone can use excuses and try to shape a narrative. The goalies that are the best through history usually have the highest SV%, just like the forwards that are the best through history usually score the most points.

This is utter nonsense.

 

[Regal]

This is what I mean. You pulled out certain advanced stats that shape that narrative. Using the most basic stats like the amount of goals that go in the net or shots that go on goal, they aren’t. Unless it’s demonstrably clear that a team in front of a goalie is historically awful defensively, I have a hard time overlooking the basic stats of how well a goalie stops the puck. Anyone can use excuses and try to shape a narrative. The goalies that are the best through history usually have the highest SV%, just like the forwards that are the best through history usually score the most points.

So wait, you want to judge Winnipeg's defense in front on Hellebuyck in order to determine the difficulty of his job, by using a measure that also includes Hellebuyck's performance?

It should be demonstrably clear to anyone who watches NHL games regularly that shots against and save difficulty can and often do vary greatly within a game. There are lots of viable criticisms about the statistics currently used to try to account for that difference, but the solution isn't to ignore it entirely.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Wait, so you think we should measure team defense strictly on shots against?

That's certainly a take.

It’s your take. I never said that.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

I’ve heard the excuses before. I tend to think goaltending analysis is very basic. Stop the puck. Winnipeg statistically doesn’t even have one of the worst defenses in the league.

The Jets have the 7th worst xGA/60, and were 3rd worst last year.

 

[Peat]

It'd make the vote hell of a lot closer.

It would also make it closer if he was somewhere people paid attention to more. Less people in the media wanting to talk about Winnipeg's woes than Tampa's torpor.

 

[Romang67]

It’s your take. I never said that.

I asked what statistics showed that the Jets' defense isn't that bad. You said shots against and goals against. As goals against are directly affected by Hellebuyck's play, I assumed that was a joke, which left us with shots against.

It appears that I was mistaken, so I have to ask again, which statistics show that the Jets defense isn't among the worst in the league?

 

[North Cole]

I mean, they are pretty terrible compared to TB, Dallas, Carolina, Nashville, etc.

So whats the issue with saying a few of those teams are pretty terrible offensively compared to a few of the North teams?