Helene Elliot slaps me down, on drafting Jonathan Drouin

[Rorschach]

Heh, reading through your e-mail my mindset was "yeah, I'll definitely be agreeing with Helene on this one, she's going to point out how unlikely it will be to acquire the 2nd overall pick in this draft....especially since we don't have a first."

Then I read her response, more specifically "I would not trade Bernier for Drouin." I can't imagine a single sitution in which Lombardi refuses the 2nd overall pick...straight up...for our back-up goaltender, regardless of how good he is.

Remember, she is not a HFBoards poster. When she says the quoted part, she means she would target a proven commodity because that's what the Kings need.

She's not comparing value between unproven assets. Only the crazy people here on HFBoards do that. She's not saying the #2 is worth less than JB even though she's using phrasing that many HFB people use when comparing values between assets...especially when talking about their own favorite prospects.

 

[Rorschach]

By the way, I disagree with this whole "need a LW" thing. What we need is for our 4th line to play like it did the previous year and beat the other team's defensemen and center into submission so that when the big guns are on the ice, they can focus more on scoring and less on beating the other team's defensemen and center into submission.

I give a pass to Clifford on this, this doesn't pertain to him.

That goes for King on the third line too. Stoll does his thing/s on the PK, faceoff circle and being a tenacious checker, and Lewis is always Lewis. We just need the other 3 guys to do their jobs, meaning King, Nolan and Fraser; they're barely NHL players, if they don't play hard there are lots of young guys who are dying for a chance. Holloway, Pearson, Vey, these guys would love to play on our 3rd or 4th lines. Look at how Toffoli busted ass despite being a highly touted offensive prospect.

We don't have the cap room to fit in another top six player. We're better off grooming Toffoli and whoever's coming up as they are easy on the cap.

 

[kingsfan]

I think you are incorrect and here is why - you are seeing a lottery pick the way many on HF do. Prospects and unproven players are ALWAYS over-valued here.

Toffoli and Bernier have both been developed since being drafted and have shown they belong on NHL ice with NHL players. That cannot be said of Drouin. Drouin could just as easily be Patrik Stefan or Alexandre Daigle as he could be Patrick Kane.

Bottom line is this: right NOW, Bernier+Toffoli look much more like a sure thing than Drouin because they have shown the ability to succeed on NHL ice at that level of play.

I'm not necessarily saying that FLA would or should make that trade, I am only saying that the known value of Bernier+Toffoli is much higher right NOW than the potential value of Drouin, IMO.

Looking at how #2 picks have panned out traditionally, its far more likely Drioun would be a star than a Stefan or Daigle.

I believe it's the thinking of the bust vs. ceiling argument of a player. Bernier at best is a franchise goaltender with a potential of being a serviceable back-up at worst for an NHL team. Odds are 75% good and 25% bad. Drouin at best is a impact NHL player but he could turn out to be a Alexandre Daigle or any other multiple high draft pick busts. I'd say potential range is 50/50. So with that I'd think that is why DL would pass on that deal.

It's more likely that a #2 pick has a higher chance of succeding than Toffoli and Bernier do, looking at historicals and assuming your 75/25 ratio for Bernier/Toffoli is used.

For every Daigle there s a Pronger and Spezza, for every Stefan, there is a Sedin or Malkin. The odds of us hitting a gold mine far exceed the odds of us hitting a bust.

Especially considering how well this exact same scouting department did the last time they had the #2 pick. I think we can say that one panned out, right?

 

[MynameisKing]

Looking at how #2 picks have panned out traditionally, its far more likely Drioun would be a star than a Stefan or Daigle.



It's more likely that a #2 pick has a higher chance of succeding than Toffoli and Bernier do, looking at historicals and assuming your 75/25 ratio for Bernier/Toffoli is used.

For every Daigle there s a Pronger and Spezza, for every Stefan, there is a Sedin or Malkin. The odds of us hitting a gold mine far exceed the odds of us hitting a bust.

Especially considering how well this exact same scouting department did the last time they had the #2 pick. I think we can say that one panned out, right?

Sure things can work out and work out great for us but given how successful #2s have been in the past doesn't mean Drouin is a guaranteed NHLer. Still, bust vs. ceiling Bernier can win more hockey games at his worst as a back-up than Drouin at a bust no matter how high or low that percentage maybe.

 

[Mats26]

By the way, I disagree with this whole "need a LW" thing. What we need is for our 4th line to play like it did the previous year and beat the other team's defensemen and center into submission so that when the big guns are on the ice, they can focus more on scoring and less on beating the other team's defensemen and center into submission.

I give a pass to Clifford on this, this doesn't pertain to him.

That goes for King on the third line too. Stoll does his thing/s on the PK, faceoff circle and being a tenacious checker, and Lewis is always Lewis. We just need the other 3 guys to do their jobs, meaning King, Nolan and Fraser; they're barely NHL players, if they don't play hard there are lots of young guys who are dying for a chance. Holloway, Pearson, Vey, these guys would love to play on our 3rd or 4th lines. Look at how Toffoli busted ass despite being a highly touted offensive prospect.

We don't have the cap room to fit in another top six player. We're better off grooming Toffoli and whoever's coming up as they are easy on the cap.

I agree our bottom 6 needs to play better, but that also means to help pinch in with some goals sometimes. We rely soley on Kopitar to get the top line going and Carter.
We saw how that affected our offense when Kopi was in his cold streak during the playoffs. Hoping Pearson, Vey can help our bottom 6 and if we can get a cheap top 6LW to help the second line I am all for it.

Also,
The trade of Toffoli, Bernier a first and Brown for Drouin....DL should be fired on the spot if this trade ever happens.

 

[kingsfan]

Sure things can work out and work out great for us but given how successful #2s have been in the past doesn't mean Drouin is a guaranteed NHLer. Still, bust vs. ceiling Bernier can win more hockey games at his worst as a back-up than Drouin at a bust no matter how high or low that percentage maybe.

Sure, and Jordan Nolan can socre more goals than a busted Drouin as well.

Look at it from an odds point of view. Odds speaking, we'd give up two good players for a very likely star level player.

I'd take that chance every day of the week, especially considering we are in a situation where the assets we are giving up can be replaced by what's already on the pro roster, none of which is so old that we need to replace any of them right away.

I'd swing for the fences on a player like that all day.

 

[kingsfan]

The trade of Toffoli, Bernier a first and Brown for Drouin....DL should be fired on the spot if this trade ever happens.

Yeah, that was me. If you read the post, I said what you'd be looking at to pry away the 2nd overall pick. I never said I supported it.

But if you see what some teams have turned down for a 1st or 2nd overall pick, you'd be surprised.

 

[redcard]

Remember, she is not a HFBoards poster. When she says the quoted part, she means she would target a proven commodity because that's what the Kings need.

She's not comparing value between unproven assets. Only the crazy people here on HFBoards do that. She's not saying the #2 is worth less than JB even though she's using phrasing that many HFB people use when comparing values between assets...especially when talking about their own favorite prospects.

Sure, but you can easily flip the 2nd overall pick for whatever you need. It's not an HFBoards value discussion, if Bernier for #2 was a realistic trade option then Dean takes it and runs. It'd be much easier to get the proven commodity that the Kings need by trading something that has value to all 29 teams (#2 pick) than trading something only a few teams need. This of course is all irrelevant since no team would part with that pick for Bernier.