Helene Elliot slaps me down, on drafting Jonathan Drouin

[triplcrown]

Helene Elliot's response
Removed due to publishing rights/privacy issues.







http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI8oLTKNsmw

Click to read more...

 

[triplcrown]

Draft Day isn't going to be like Christmas.

I gotta' live with it.

 

[Fishhead]

Toffoli, Bernier, and a pick is not getting you a top 2 pick.

The rest of those guys are just filler and worth very little. The only one with value is Lewis, and he is worth far more to the kings than other teams.

If you want a top 2 pick, it's going to be more like Voynov + Toffolli + 1st. Unless you are already drafting very high and just want to move up a spot or two, top picks are never worth what they cost. The thing about top draft picks is if they are completely no-brainer dominant players, the pick is never traded. The more risky guys still garner a ridiculous return.

Not sure why the Kings would do this anyways, that's a rebuilding team move.

 

[MynameisKing]

Women are always right!

 

[King'sPawn]

Kings aren't rebuilding.

Gutting the depth of the organization to get the 2nd overall pick is foolish, as would the Panthers be if they were to take that woefully underwhelming package for the 2nd overall.

Tell me, would you rather have Drew Doughty or Muzzin, Toffoli, King, 2nd round pick and Bernier?

Edit: And I'll add it's ridiculous to call any prospect "perhaps a better player than a current star."

 

[hangons]

Toffoli, Bernier, and a pick is not getting you a top 2 pick.

The rest of those guys are just filler and worth very little. The only one with value is Lewis, and he is worth far more to the kings than other teams.

If you want a top 2 pick, it's going to be more like Voynov + Toffolli + 1st. Unless you are already drafting very high and just want to move up a spot or two, top picks are never worth what they cost. The thing about top draft picks is if they are completely no-brainer dominant players, the pick is never traded. The more risky guys still garner a ridiculous return.

Not sure why the Kings would do this anyways, that's a rebuilding team move.

Fishhead ~ You are nuts if you think Toffoli and Bernier ain't getting us a top two pick. No way the Kings would do that. I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised to see what we get for JB.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

There's just no way possible the Kings will be able to move up in a position to draft Drouin unless Lombardi loses his mind and decides to move one of the Kings' top players. Get the thought of Drouin or other high end prospects out of your mind, it's not happening.

 

[triplcrown]

There's just no way possible the Kings will be able to move up in a position to draft Drouin unless Lombardi loses his mind and decides to move one of the Kings' top players. Get the thought of Drouin or other high end prospects out of your mind, it's not happening.

Um, OK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zzu8ZxBHMWk

 

[etherialone]

Women are always right!

Hellen is very very right this time without a doubt.

 

[Fishhead]

Lottery picks are rarely moved. Especially the top 3.

If Bernier + Toffolli could get us a top 3 pick, it would be done already. It takes star power to pull that off, not a rookie and a backup goalie - even if he's as good as Bernier.

The pieces to move up that high are painful to think about. And I think Helene is way off base if she wouldn't trade Bernier for Drouin. Every single GM ithe league makes that trade and faxes the paperwork over within minutes.

 

[redcard]

Heh, reading through your e-mail my mindset was "yeah, I'll definitely be agreeing with Helene on this one, she's going to point out how unlikely it will be to acquire the 2nd overall pick in this draft....especially since we don't have a first."

Then I read her response, more specifically "I would not trade Bernier for Drouin." I can't imagine a single sitution in which Lombardi refuses the 2nd overall pick...straight up...for our back-up goaltender, regardless of how good he is.

 

[MsMeow]

I think Sutter just needs to remind our scorers to shoot more and ease up a bit on their defensivemindedness, and yes I know that's not a word.

I don't want to give up Muzzin or Toffoli. For whatever reason, some people here keep ragging on Muzzin because they just remember his play vs the Blues. People need to remember he was thrown in this year because of Greene and Mitchell's injuries and is a rookie. Let him develop!

And finally, a lot of people seem to think a player in the draft is better than an established player. I used to follow the OHL a lot several years ago, Sudbury specifically. Benoit Pouliot was drafted 4th, and look at him since then. He's bounced from one team to another because he isn't that good. I'd rather stick with established players and at least give guys like Muzzin and Toffoli a chance to build on their NHL experience from last year. This isn't the Flyers we're talking about, the team just needs a tiny bit of tinkering, not an explosion.

 

[CNS]

I think Sutter just needs to remind our scorers to shoot more and ease up a bit on their defensivemindedness, and yes I know that's not a word.

This is something I feel strongly on too. Doughty really had the reigns put on him this year. Granted, we did need more defensive help because of our injuries but turning our #1 D from an offensive one in to a defensive one isn't the most ideal situation.

As for Drouin, the thought that we have enough resources to trade for the pick necessary to get Drouin without crippling the team is laughable. I'd LOVE Drouin but that's not happening.

 

[DaAnimal]

Women are always right!

cant argue with that

 

[kingsfan]

I don't really like Helen, but she dead right. Your offer is mostly depth stuff and so-so picks for a kid who could be a star. Why would Florida do a deal like that? Give up 2nd overall for a package where the two pieces are a 1st next year (and unless LA falls off badly it'll likely be in the bottom 3rd on the first round) and maybe Toffoli. Good prospect, but Drouin could be, in your own words, a Patrick Kane.

If you want to get, you have to give. Unless the deal was Toffoli, Bernier, 2014 1st, and someone else really good, like Dustin Brown, Florida would pass. Ask Tonelli's Ghost what kind of offers get tossed out on the draft floor for the top picks. You'd surprised what gets turned down by teams.

 

[Kingler]

I don't see how the Kings can possibly move into top 3. We don't have enough trade chip of players we are willing to trade. Quantity does not buy quality

 

[Telos]

I am not a fan of Helene, but she is right. Drouin is unproven and not an immediate solution for now, and even if he were, that package would be laughed at and tossed aside. Bernier isn't a center piece for a deal like that, the Kings love Lewis and even if they didn't, he doesn't hold that much value. Muzzin and Martinez would have interest, but not very much value at all, and the same would go for our 2nd round pick. Toffoli would be the center piece, but no team would trade for him when they can just as easily pick Drouin. It is just not a realistic proposal, and something you would only see in fantasy hockey and video games. The only way to move up into that area of the draft would be to deal players in the likes of Voynov, Kopitar, Richards/Carter, Doughty, etc...

 

[Buddy The Elf]

I'm thankful that before this thread, I had no idea who Jonathan Drouin is. I couldn't even tell you who was drafted 2nd overall last year. The only reason I know who went #1 because of his flamboyant celebration against the Kings early in the season.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Not Helen to triplcrown

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Nothelen is a monster of knowledge. I love how she will talk to anyone about hockey. Pass on this from Florida. We could throw a few pieces away and get Oscar Moller potential back, but no way we should trade Toffoli. Guy is good and has nothing but upside to him right now.

 

[kingsholygrail]

What are you thinking?

 

[Archangel]

helen can slap me as hard as she likes

 

[jimmy1100]

Lottery picks are rarely moved. Especially the top 3.

If Bernier + Toffolli could get us a top 3 pick, it would be done already. It takes star power to pull that off, not a rookie and a backup goalie - even if he's as good as Bernier.

The pieces to move up that high are painful to think about. And I think Helene is way off base if she wouldn't trade Bernier for Drouin. Every single GM ithe league makes that trade and faxes the paperwork over within minutes.

I think you are incorrect and here is why - you are seeing a lottery pick the way many on HF do. Prospects and unproven players are ALWAYS over-valued here.

Toffoli and Bernier have both been developed since being drafted and have shown they belong on NHL ice with NHL players. That cannot be said of Drouin. Drouin could just as easily be Patrik Stefan or Alexandre Daigle as he could be Patrick Kane.

Bottom line is this: right NOW, Bernier+Toffoli look much more like a sure thing than Drouin because they have shown the ability to succeed on NHL ice at that level of play.

I'm not necessarily saying that FLA would or should make that trade, I am only saying that the known value of Bernier+Toffoli is much higher right NOW than the potential value of Drouin, IMO.

 

[MynameisKing]

Heh, reading through your e-mail my mindset was "yeah, I'll definitely be agreeing with Helene on this one, she's going to point out how unlikely it will be to acquire the 2nd overall pick in this draft....especially since we don't have a first."

Then I read her response, more specifically "I would not trade Bernier for Drouin." I can't imagine a single sitution in which Lombardi refuses the 2nd overall pick...straight up...for our back-up goaltender, regardless of how good he is.

I believe it's the thinking of the bust vs. ceiling argument of a player. Bernier at best is a franchise goaltender with a potential of being a serviceable back-up at worst for an NHL team. Odds are 75% good and 25% bad. Drouin at best is a impact NHL player but he could turn out to be a Alexandre Daigle or any other multiple high draft pick busts. I'd say potential range is 50/50. So with that I'd think that is why DL would pass on that deal.

 

[Fishhead]

I think you are incorrect and here is why - you are seeing a lottery pick the way many on HF do. Prospects and unproven players are ALWAYS over-valued here.

Toffoli and Bernier have both been developed since being drafted and have shown they belong on NHL ice with NHL players. That cannot be said of Drouin. Drouin could just as easily be Patrik Stefan or Alexandre Daigle as he could be Patrick Kane.

Bottom line is this: right NOW, Bernier+Toffoli look much more like a sure thing than Drouin because they have shown the ability to succeed on NHL ice at that level of play.

I'm not necessarily saying that FLA would or should make that trade, I am only saying that the known value of Bernier+Toffoli is much higher right NOW than the potential value of Drouin, IMO.

Toffoli and Bernier, while I love them, haven't proven much at all. Bernier proved he can have a great stretch of games. Toffoli showed he can put the puck in the net. Many have done this exact same thing and tailed off quickly. I would argue that Bernier + Toffoli do not have the upside of a #2 pick based on history. Here are the last 15 #2's:

Legwand
D. Sedin
Heatley
Spezza
Lehtonen
E. Staal
Malkin
Ryan
J. Staal
JVR
Doughty
Hedman
Seguin
Landeskog
Murray

If you offered Bernier + Toffoli + 1st for all but maybe one or two of those guys, there would be awkward silence on the other end of the phone. Even with some of the borderline guys you'd have to swap out Toffoli for something better or add just to get them to consider it.

The statement that Drouin could bust as easily as he could become a top player is false. There's always that chance, but top 3 guys that bust are exceedingly rare. It's not like half of the lottery picks bust out, the vast majority of them are difference makers. It's even more rare now, as every single GM/Head Scout has hours of videos of players at their fingertips.