Hart Trophy: Who has better claim?

[killa3312]

You are to emotionally invested in something that you can’t change and something you didn’t do. Both had great seasons. Voters are gonna see things differently, we’re humans that’s what we do. Go Avs smash the jets


It’s a different era. Scorings up. It’s just isn’t as impressive to me… including Mack’s season scoring record, while cool. It is what it is

Scoring is up but still down comparatively to the time Gretzky played and nobody was hitting 100 assists back then, either, except for the greatest hockey player of all-time. Just saying.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It’s a different era. Scorings up. … including Mack’s season scoring record, while cool. It is what it is

lol, the scoring was higher when Gretzky and Lemieux did it, and no-one has done it since, 40 goals , 100 assists.
Maybe explain why no-one else has done it ever, instead of It’s just isn’t as impressive to me,
[mod]

 

[Ncit3]

MacKinnon hasn't won anything because he is on the edge of elite as opposed to being elite. Always has been. That doesn't make him a bad player either but the idea that he is somehow "due" is laughable

This is comical. Dude scores 141 points and is a major part of a cup run which includes beating your Tampa Bay Lightning. And he’s one on the edge of being elite.

Tell me you’re Florida Man without telling me you’re Florida Man.

 

[These Are The Days]

This is comical. Dude scores 141 points and is a major part of a cup run which includes beating your Tampa Bay Lightning. And he’s one on the edge of being elite.

Tell me you’re Florida Man without telling me you’re Florida Man.

MacKinnon took 9 years to reach the century mark in a season. If you wanna argue that being elite then go for it.

 

[lionsDen]

lol, the scoring was higher when Gretzky and Lemieux did it, and no-one has done it since, 40 goals , 100 assists.
Maybe explain why no-one else has done it ever, instead of It’s just isn’t as impressive to me,
[mod]

[mod] you did read the part where I said I didn’t care who won?You are trying to pigeon hole some narrative that I didn’t even bring up. I’m sorry if it hurts your feelings that I don’t care about some winger with the first 100 assist season. Scoring is up and kucherov has multiple 80+ assist season so it tracks. Trying to argue something with someone who’s entrenched on an opinion Is pointless, have fun I’m done

 

[Voight]

Playing for Tampa will probably screw him over more than being Russian. The Lightning have a long history of players missing out on clearly-deserved awards.

Besides, unlike some other Russian players Kuch has never been remotely political. He hardly talks to the press at all, much less pushes propaganda on anybody. Plus he publicly bashed his KHL team for refusing to pay for his shoulder surgery and praised Vinik and the Lightning for taking care of him when his own Russian team wouldn’t. He may not speak out against the Putin regime - after all his family still lives there - but he’s not going around praising Russia either.

Which players/years are you referring to?

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Points:

Kuch 1st with 144 points
Mackinnon 2nd with 140 points

PPG:

Kuch 1st with 1.78 PPG
Mackinnon 3rd with 1.71 PPG

Goals Created:

Mackinnon 1st with 51.1
Kuch 2nd with 50.5

Goals:

Mackinnon 4th with 51 goals
Kuch 10th with 44 goals

Assists:

Kuch tied for first with 100 assists
Mackinnon 3rd with 89 assists

Even Strength Goals:

Mackinnon 2nd with 41 goals
Kuch tied for 9th with 31 goals

Goals Created Per Game:

Mackinnon and Kuch tied for first

Even Strength Points:

Kuch with 91 points
Mackinnon with 92 points

Teammates:

The gap between MacKinnon and his next closest teammate was 36 points (Rantanen). The gap in the goals was 9 between the two.
The gap between Kuch and his next closest teammate was 54 points (Point). Point beat Kuch for goals by 2.

The depth of higher quality teammates definitely favors Kuch and Tampa with the next 4 highest point scorers totaling 322 points while Mackinnon's next 4 highest teammates point totals are 303 points. The dropoff in higher-end offensive players is definitely more noticeable after Makar and factoring in Nichuskin's injury for Colorado.

Also worth noting is that Tampa Bay has what is considered one of the best goalies in the world while Colorado has what might charitably be regarded as an average goalie.

Mackinnon's team was missing a first line PPG forward in Landeskog for the entire season and a PPG player in Nichuskin for nearly 30 games. Kuch was missing Sergachev - a top-pairing d-man for 47 games.

Overall it's a very close call, but given that Mackinnon plays the more difficult position of centre; has a more impressive gap in goals (7) and even strength goals (10) than the gap between the two in points (4); played on a team that had 9 or 10 more points, and had a significantly higher plus/minus (I don't agree with this but you can bet it influences voters), it looks like Mackinnon will win the Hart Trophy.

There are 196 first place votes (according to last year). I expect Mackinnon to receive around 100 - 110 first place votes, Kuch around 50 - 60, McDavid 20 - 30 with possibly a scattering of first place votes for another couple players.

 

[Regal]

Kucherov met all the benchmarks that Hart voters traditionally vote for. Art Ross winner, Massive scoring lead over anyone on his team, was in on half his teams goals, averaged 2 points per game against top 10 teams, and pretty much single handedly drug his struggling team into the playoffs. On top of that, set NHL records for assists by a winger and points by a Russian. Joined Gretzky and Lemieux as the only players with 40G 100A in a seasons.

Mack had what, better 5v5 goal differential? More goals than Kuch, but not remotely close to the Rocket trophy. Mack had an unbelievable year, but in the end Kuch pulled away in the Art Ross race. Had Mack won the Art Ross or Rocket I would be all in to support him for the Hart, but in the end nothing about his season really stands out other than being the media favorite for the award all year.

A lot of that stuff is fluff though. Like the 40G, 100 assists. The idea that it’s more impressive than 4 fewer points and 7 more goals simply because it hasn’t been done by anyone but Gretzky and Lemieux is just silly. His season isn’t better or worse because he didn’t get a couple more goals and a couple fewer assists.

Same thing with assists by a winger or points by a Russian. They’re impressive but more about the competition at the position/nationality than anything. I mean MacKinnon also had more assists than any winger or points than any Russian, so when we’re comparing the two of them, who cares?

The massive scoring lead over number 2 is a weak argument, because it ignores the other players on the team. Kucherov was in on half his team’s goals, which is awesome, but MacKinnon was in on 47% of his team’s goals. It’s a point in Kucherov’s favour, but the difference is somewhat marginal. And I don’t see how this is a feat that matters but MacKinnon not just having a much better goal differential, but rising his team’s goal differential to a greater degree (which is harder to do since the baseline is higher) is a minor footnote. Goal differential is how games are won not just scoring the most points. And MacKinnon’s gap here is bigger than Kucherov’s point gap. So while, sure, Kucherov dragged his team to the playoffs, it’s not obvious Colorado would have made it without MacKinnon this year either. The Avs were not very good with him off the ice, and that includes Makar.

Ultimately, the scoring stats and underlying numbers suggest MacKinnon was the better player this year by a slight margin. Saying “nothing stands out” because he didn’t win the Art Ross or Richard feels like surface level analysis (though admittedly that’s how a lot of Hart voters vote). Kucherov was more valuable to his team by a slight margin, but the Hart frequently goes to the best player not just the most valuable. It’s probably close enough that in a typical year, Kucherov would win out due to winning the Art Ross and being seen as more valuable, so sure, there’s probably some sense of wanting MacKinnon to have some award for the year that’s going to factor in. But I can’t see how it wouldn’t be close even if MacKinnon had won before.

 

[Regal]

Cute. I guess 7 goals is the difference in the Hart race

Kucherov would've been in the midst of his 7th 100 point season had he not lost basically 2 years to his hip injury and COVID. Mackinnon's done it twice and everyone batting for him downplays Kucherov's 100 assist accomplishment because scoring is up. What would that say about MacKinnon in that case?

lol no, what’s cute is bringing up injuries and COVID for Kucherov and ignoring that MacKinnon has paced for 100 points every year since 17-18 (also 7 seasons), except for his one 99 point season.

Since 17-18, their PPGs are 1.45 for Kucherov and 1.41 for MacKinnon (in 60 more games), and both have had the better PPG than the other in 3 of the 6 years Kuch played in (in the one Kucherov missed, MacKinnon was 4th in PPG). Yup, he’s on a totally different level.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Mack is on the better team and they usually give it to the guy who is willing his team to win. I'd say that kucherov was willing his team to win a little more than mack just based off who they have on the rest of the team. I'd say avs are absolutely stacked and nobody would bet against them winning the cup. If tampa wins the cup kucherov will probably will them to it. Just based off how they are not quite as stacked as years past. Look at his point total between him and point. I get that mack is more popular, a center, Canadian and isn't Russian but I think kucherov is more valuable overall to his team. Avs would still be a damn good team without him. Lightning would be bottom of the league without kucherov. But they will give it to mack because of him being more popular and "due" as reason.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

You forgot Kuch won the trophy over Crosby and McDavid in 18/19.
But for some reason you keep pushing this false narrative.

Edit

 

[Galactico]

MacKinnon took 9 years to reach the century mark in a season. If you wanna argue that being elite then go for it.

Nobody in the NHL would take Kucherov on his team over MacKinnon, get real.

 

[Regal]

MacKinnon took 9 years to reach the century mark in a season. If you wanna argue that being elite then go for it.

This is a painfully pathetic take

 

[Fantomas]

Also worth noting is that Tampa Bay has what is considered one of the best goalies in the world while Colorado has what might charitably be regarded as an average goalie.

Sure, but Vasi hasn't played like one of the best goalies in the world

 

[Plastic Joseph]

• Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche) -340
• Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) +500
• Connor McDavid (Oilers) +550
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs) +2500

Odds from FanDuel.

Looks like MacKinnon has won it. Congratulations to him.

If only Kuch was a bit better defensively, maybe he could have won it this year. Shame really.

Imagine someone winning 2 MVPs in the McDavid era? That would have been insane, all-time stuff. So close, so close.

 

[FrankSidebottom]

A lot of that stuff is fluff though. Like the 40G, 100 assists. The idea that it’s more impressive than 4 fewer points and 7 more goals simply because it hasn’t been done by anyone but Gretzky and Lemieux is just silly. His season isn’t better or worse because he didn’t get a couple more goals and a couple fewer assists.

Same thing with assists by a winger or points by a Russian. They’re impressive but more about the competition at the position/nationality than anything. I mean MacKinnon also had more assists than any winger or points than any Russian, so when we’re comparing the two of them, who cares?

The massive scoring lead over number 2 is a weak argument, because it ignores the other players on the team. Kucherov was in on half his team’s goals, which is awesome, but MacKinnon was in on 47% of his team’s goals. It’s a point in Kucherov’s favour, but the difference is somewhat marginal. And I don’t see how this is a feat that matters but MacKinnon not just having a much better goal differential, but rising his team’s goal differential to a greater degree (which is harder to do since the baseline is higher) is a minor footnote. Goal differential is how games are won not just scoring the most points. And MacKinnon’s gap here is bigger than Kucherov’s point gap. So while, sure, Kucherov dragged his team to the playoffs, it’s not obvious Colorado would have made it without MacKinnon this year either. The Avs were not very good with him off the ice, and that includes Makar.

Ultimately, the scoring stats and underlying numbers suggest MacKinnon was the better player this year by a slight margin. Saying “nothing stands out” because he didn’t win the Art Ross or Richard feels like surface level analysis (though admittedly that’s how a lot of Hart voters vote). Kucherov was more valuable to his team by a slight margin, but the Hart frequently goes to the best player not just the most valuable. It’s probably close enough that in a typical year, Kucherov would win out due to winning the Art Ross and being seen as more valuable, so sure, there’s probably some sense of wanting MacKinnon to have some award for the year that’s going to factor in. But I can’t see how it wouldn’t be close even if MacKinnon had won before.

It doesn’t work this way when one guy has Makar, Toews, Manson, Girard, Walker and Byram (1 #1D, 1 #2D, 3 #3D, 1 #4D) while his competitor has Hedman and …. broken down Cernak, Perbix, Raddysh, De Haan, Fleury and some Norwegian guy (1 #1D, 1 #4D and a bunch of #6D). It’s not even close. Add here the third worst goaltending in the league from Tampa’s goalies and your argument becomes invadid. It’s a miracle that Kucherov is a net positive ES player with this team, look at Point’s plus-minus.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

It doesn’t work this way when one guy has Makar, Toews, Manson, Girard, Walker and Byram (1 #1D, 1 #2D, 3 #3D, 1 #4D) while his competitor has Hedman and …. broken down Cernak, Perbix, Raddysh, De Haan, Fleury and some Norwegian guy (1 #1D, 1 #4D and a bunch of #6D). It’s not even close. Add here the third worst goaltending in the league from Tampa’s goalies and your argument becomes invadid. It’s a miracle that Kucherov is a net positive ES player with this team, look at Point’s plus-minus.

don't OD on that copium man

 

[daver]

Scoring is up but still down comparatively to the time Gretzky played and nobody was hitting 100 assists back then, either, except for the greatest hockey player of all-time. Just saying.

Scoring was more distributed throughout the lineup back then. Kind of an apples to oranges comparison.

 

[daver]

Comparing TOI of superstar offensive talent should instinctively make no sense. It's not even a small edge; if anything the edge goes to the player who gets more TOI.

Maybe McKinnon's greater TOI lead to his greater on-ice/off-ice impact.

 

[keglu]

Mack is on the better team and they usually give it to the guy who is willing his team to win. I'd say that kucherov was willing his team to win a little more than mack just based off who they have on the rest of the team. I'd say avs are absolutely stacked and nobody would bet against them winning the cup. If tampa wins the cup kucherov will probably will them to it. Just based off how they are not quite as stacked as years past. Look at his point total between him and point. I get that mack is more popular, a center, Canadian and isn't Russian but I think kucherov is more valuable overall to his team. Avs would still be a damn good team without him. Lightning would be bottom of the league without kucherov. But they will give it to mack because of him being more popular and "due" as reason.

Avs have terible goaltending and iffy defence this year. This is team build around offence. Now try to imagine building offensive minded team around Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton as your Top6 centers.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

It will be fascinating to see what the final voting will be given that MacKinnon, McDavid, and Kucherov had such similar seasons points-wise. I think if Matthews would have hit 70 he would have possibly bumped one of the three but he couldn't quite do it. I think guys like Pastrnak and Hellebucyk have strong cases as well.

 

[sepHF]

MacKinnon hasn't won anything because he is on the edge of elite as opposed to being elite. Always has been. That doesn't make him a bad player either but the idea that he is somehow "due" is laughable

He just put up 140 pts dude

“The edge of elite” cmon…

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Kucherov easy.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

He just put up 140 pts dude

“The edge of elite” cmon…

"Doesn't make him a bad player "...mackinnon not a bad player ? You don't say.

Winning this hart will be awesome for him

 

[Toby91ca]

lol, the scoring was higher when Gretzky and Lemieux did it, and no-one has done it since, 40 goals , 100 assists.
Maybe explain why no-one else has done it ever, instead of It’s just isn’t as impressive to me,
[mod]

How many have scored 50+ goals and 160+ assists in the same season? I think that list is pretty short.