Hall for Larsson 1 Year Later

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Part of that is because Sekera got hurt, too.

 

[MartyOwns]

I don't think you are remembering the media articles at the time of the trade very well. The media generally leans whichever way hockey people tell them to go. Throw in the fact that Edmonton threw dirt on Hall's grave and the Devils did no such thing to Larsson and there were a lot of 'this is the price you have to pay, it's an overpay but not a huge one'. Keep in mind also the media just voted Chiarelli as one of the GMs of the year.

hmmm sounds to me like you don't watch or read any canadian media at all. it's a cultural thing, and you definitely should pick-up on it if you spend a lot of time in canada or watching/reading their media.

 

[Triumph]

hmmm sounds to me like you don't watch or read any canadian media at all. it's a cultural thing, and you definitely should pick-up on it if you spend a lot of time in canada or watching/reading their media.

What are you talking about? Yes, Canadian media are biased towards Canadian players, but not towards every player and certainly not all the time - they can be even more savage to players of Canadian origin than those of other countries in certain circumstances. Edmonton media dug up Taylor Hall to bury him again in the playoffs - Edmonton was in the postseason for the first time in 10 years and their local media was still talking about a guy who wasn't playing there anymore. Montreal's media are still picking at PK Subban.

 

[Kurt Cobain]

Amazing how fans on this site have to put down Adam Larsson to justify the Hall trade. The trade hurt us in the short term but I still believe it was the right move in the long run. Severson wasn't ready to take Larsson's place like we all thought he was capable of before the season started, but it didn't happen and hopefully Damom will be much improved defensively by next season.

Larsson was the perfect player for Edmonton and if you wanna live in some fantasy world where he wasn't their top pairing RHD and their best overall defensman overall so be it. I'll take Oilers fans opinions on him moreso than Devils fans who don't want to acknowledge that our goal scoring didn't improve with the trade for Hall and our defense got significantly worse with the loss of Adam Larsson.

 

[Eric Sachs]

Amazing how fans on this site have to put down Adam Larsson to justify the Hall trade. The trade hurt us in the short term but I still believe it was the right move in the long run. Severson wasn't ready to take Larsson's place like we all thought he was capable of before the season started, but it didn't happen and hopefully Damom will be much improved defensively by next season.

Larsson was the perfect player for Edmonton and if you wanna live in some fantasy world where he wasn't their top pairing RHD and their best overall defensman overall so be it. I'll take Oilers fans opinions on him moreso than Devils fans who don't want to acknowledge that our goal scoring didn't improve with the trade for Hall and our defense got significantly worse with the loss of Adam Larsson.

The same phenomenon exists the other way though, so I'm not sure taking Oilers fans opinions serves this discussion any better. Oilers fans are more apt to see the good in Larsson and talk him up because of the trade and the fact that he's their guy now, don't you think? This happens with all trades. The natural reaction is to rationalize the trade by whatever means necessary to come to the conclusion that it was good for your team. Devils fans talk down Larsson, Oilers fans have fairly unabashedly criticized Hall. Both teams overrate their new player.

This is pretty much what fans of all teams do with their own players. The same way Devils fans did with Larsson pre-trade. The same way Devils fans do now with Hall. In almost all cases, player evaluations based on fan evaluation is likely fairly biased, so if you're trying to prove something.. using fan evaluations is a pretty poor way to do so.

 

[Bleedred]

The same phenomenon exists the other way though, so I'm not sure taking Oilers fans opinions serves this discussion any better. Oilers fans are more apt to see the good in Larsson and talk him up because of the trade and the fact that he's their guy now, don't you think? This happens with all trades. The natural reaction is to rationalize the trade by whatever means necessary to come to the conclusion that it was good for your team. Devils fans talk down Larsson, Oilers fans have fairly unabashedly criticized Hall. Both teams overrate their new player.

This is pretty much what fans of all teams do with their own players. The same way Devils fans did with Larsson pre-trade. The same way Devils fans do now with Hall. In almost all cases, player evaluations based on fan evaluation is likely fairly biased, so if you're trying to prove something.. using fan evaluations is a pretty poor way to do so.

I'm glad I wasn't the first to say this.

How about all the dummies that are proclaiming Edmonton won this trade, which is almost completely based off the fact that they made the playoffs and got to the second round AND we got even worse. So it must have been because of Larsson! Never mind that 100 point scrub Connor McDavid! Forget about about 77 point Draisaitl! Forget about them replacing Hall with a 50 point player and us replacing Adam Larsson with Ben Lovejoy. Or them having the best goaltender they've had in at least a decade, who started 20 more games this year than he did last year? ''Adam Larsson's defensive prowess is why Cam Talbot's save percentage went up 3 points this year bruh! If not for Larsson, Talbot would have played like Schneider did for the Devils this year! Well, maybe not if he only started 53 games again brah!''

Now I've already acknowledged that losing Hall hurt them less than losing Larsson hurt us, at least as of now. Because of the fact that they replaced Hall with Lucic and Lucic is NOT as good as Hall, he's just much closer to Hall than Lovejoy is to Larsson, but that's only because Ben Lovejoy absolutely SUCKED at hockey last year.

I'd love to have Larsson back, obviously not at the cost of Hall or another impact player. I also think that he's become massively overrated since Edmonton made the playoffs. The complete opposite of when he was called a BUST around these here parts of the internet, just two years ago or maybe even less.

We got the vastly superior player in this trade.

 

[The Madrigal]

Good trade for both teams. Everybody always wants to proclaim winners and losers with trades but a lot of times they work out for both teams.

 

[Bleedred]

Good trade for both teams. Everybody always wants to proclaim winners and losers with trades but a lot of times they work out for both teams.

It was a trade that needed to be made because staying status quo with those same guys for years and years wasn't working. So they definitely needed a shake up and Hall was the guy who went. Then Yakupov eventually went too. One of the failures of the old guard (MacBrainDamage and Lowe) was they didn't see this. They were willing to stay status quo for years and years and hope they would get it right eventually or just luck into a playoff spot one of these years.

So a trade made sense, I just think they could have gotten better value out of Hall. McDavid (who was injured almost half the season the year before) and the breakout year from Draisaitl, as well as replacing Hall with a 50 point player and 73 games of Talbot, had a lot more to do with the season the Oilers had than Larsson. He made their defense better, but he's not a game changer like McDavid or like Draisaitl was last year.

God forbid Puljujarvi comes up and scores 50 or 60 points next year and the Oilers are even better and we still suck, it will still be somehow attributed to a combination of acquiring Larsson and ridding the city of Taylor Hall. Especially if we suck again.

 

[HBK27]

Amazing how fans on this site have to put down Adam Larsson to justify the Hall trade. The trade hurt us in the short term but I still believe it was the right move in the long run. Severson wasn't ready to take Larsson's place like we all thought he was capable of before the season started, but it didn't happen and hopefully Damom will be much improved defensively by next season.

Larsson was the perfect player for Edmonton and if you wanna live in some fantasy world where he wasn't their top pairing RHD and their best overall defensman overall so be it. I'll take Oilers fans opinions on him moreso than Devils fans who don't want to acknowledge that our goal scoring didn't improve with the trade for Hall and our defense got significantly worse with the loss of Adam Larsson.

Yeah, I think the trade was more even than people are giving it credit in this thread. Still not happy about losing Larsson, but it was a trade that had to be made.

If Shero can somehow trade for a defenseman from a team that is at risk of losing a good one prior to the expansion draft, this trade will look even better. Without Larsson, Greene and Severson are the only Devils d-men of any significant value worth protecting in the expansion draft, so there's a third spot open to bring in a good 2nd pairing player from another team that otherwise would've been lost to Vegas.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The same phenomenon exists the other way though, so I'm not sure taking Oilers fans opinions serves this discussion any better. Oilers fans are more apt to see the good in Larsson and talk him up because of the trade and the fact that he's their guy now, don't you think? This happens with all trades. The natural reaction is to rationalize the trade by whatever means necessary to come to the conclusion that it was good for your team.

You're correct, but not everyone does this; the reality is that this is what "man-children do", not what rational human beings do.

 

[The Devil In I]

We got the better player, but at the much less important position. Still consider the trade a win for us though.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah, I think the trade was more even than people are giving it credit in this thread. Still not happy about losing Larsson, but it was a trade that had to be made.

If Shero can somehow trade for a defenseman from a team that is at risk of losing a good one prior to the expansion draft, this trade will look even better. Without Larsson, Greene and Severson are the only Devils d-men of any significant value worth protecting in the expansion draft, so there's a third spot open to bring in a good 2nd pairing player from another team that otherwise would've been lost to Vegas.

That is an interesting point. Cause part of why the deal did work for edm is they immediately filled the void left by Hall when they signed Lucic.

Meanwhile we signed Lovejoy.

 

[Bleedred]

That is an interesting point. Cause part of why the deal did work for edm is they immediately filled the void left by Hall when they signed Lucic.

Meanwhile we signed Lovejoy.

Which is what I've said.

They signed Lucic and we signed a guy that had to be a bottom 10 defenseman in the NHL last year.

So losing Larsson hurt us more than losing Hall hurt them, but I think we stole this one.

 

[JimEIV]

Which is what I've said.

They signed Lucic and we signed a guy that had to be a bottom 10 defenseman in the NHL last year.

So losing Larsson hurt us more than losing Hall hurt them, but I think we stole this one.

Based on what?

 

[MullerBrotenVerbeek]

I think it's clear that we got the better player, but Hall was expendable in Edmonton and they were dying for D. So really, both teams won.

 

[Bleedred]

Based on what?

Eye test and probably even advanced stats.

There's no way anyone can argue Lovejoy was not bad last year. Aside from the last 40 games of Salvador, he was the worst defenseman to lace them up for us in a full time role in a VERY long time.

Not including Fraser and guys who were number 7's and call ups. Helgeson and the like, etc.

Lovejoy was a complete liability. A massive one.

I'm not saying that I or anyone had reason to believe he was a bottom 10 defenseman or would be when the signing was made. That's how it turned out though.

 

[JimEIV]

Eye test and probably even advanced stats.

There's no way anyone can argue Lovejoy was not bad last year. Aside from the last 40 games of Salvador, he was the worst defenseman to lace them up for us in a full time role in a VERY long time.

Not including Fraser and guys who were number 7's and call ups. Helgeson and the like, etc.

Lovejoy was a complete liability. A massive one.

I'm not saying that I or anyone had reason to believe he was a bottom 10 defenseman or would be when the signing was made. That's how it turned out though.

In shots he was practically identical to Larsson last year. There was a biggggggg difference in the goal stats - the team gave up 241 goals this season and 202 last season.

but consider this for a moment...

if Larsson and Lovejoy have similar shot stats how bad of a job did Lovejoy really do? Let's concede for the time being he didn't do as good a job as Larsson, They allow/create almost identical shot totals as a percentage...

2016 Corsi
LARSSON, ADAM New_Jersey CF% 44.9

2017
LOVEJOY, BEN New_Jersey CF% 44.76


2016 - On Ice Shots
LARSSON, ADAM New_Jersey SF% 46.6
2017
LOVEJOY, BEN New_Jersey SF% 45.7


I personally think the truth is Schneider was the worst player on the team and the worst starting goalie in the league and large chunk of those goals are purely his fault...But that's just me.

 

[JimEIV]

Here is one more thing to ponder on those shot stats...


Greene got significantly better form last year to this year in those same stats.

2016 On ice Shot
GREENE, ANDY SF% 46.0
2017
GREENE, ANDY SF% 48.1

2016 On Ice Corsi
GREENE, ANDY 43.7 CF%
2017
GREENE, ANDY 48.1 CF%


Last year Greene Hardly played a minute without Larsson...

This year he split time with Lovejoy and Severson
471:52 5v5 with Lovejoy
466:59 5v5 with Severson

Was Larsson a drag on Greene's generating ability? Was he actually babysitting Larsson for the last two years?

EDIT: Or another plausible answer...
Or are these stats bul poopy and usage largely influences these shot ratios

 

[Triumph]

Oh neat, Aethon's trying his hand at number manipulation again. Here's the problem with this analysis: Taylor Hall is one of the best play-driving forwards in the league and Adam Larsson never got to play with him. So if we were looking to compare Lovejoy and Larsson - not sure why we're doing that exactly but here we are - we should first take a gander at Lovejoy's stats with and without Hall last year.

Lovejoy with Hall: 46.2%
Lovejoy without Hall: 43.2%

Most stunning is Hall without Lovejoy last year: 56%

Part of this is going to be situational, that Lovejoy was deployed in maximally defensive scenarios, but the fact that Hall turns into one of the best playdrivers in the league without Lovejoy anchoring him is a large indictment of his play last season.

We can do the same with Greene also:

Greene with Hall: 54%
Greene without Hall: 45.5%

So yeah, there's a starting place.

 

[JimEIV]

Oh neat, Aethon's trying his hand at number manipulation again. Here's the problem with this analysis: Taylor Hall is one of the best play-driving forwards in the league and Adam Larsson never got to play with him. So if we were looking to compare Lovejoy and Larsson - not sure why we're doing that exactly but here we are - we should first take a gander at Lovejoy's stats with and without Hall last year.

Lovejoy with Hall: 46.2%
Lovejoy without Hall: 43.2%

Most stunning is Hall without Lovejoy last year: 56%

Part of this is going to be situational, that Lovejoy was deployed in maximally defensive scenarios, but the fact that Hall turns into one of the best playdrivers in the league without Lovejoy anchoring him is a large indictment of his play last season.

We can do the same with Greene also:

Greene with Hall: 54%
Greene without Hall: 45.5%

So yeah, there's a starting place.

Lovejoy's CF number without Hall is still inline with what Greene and Larsson did last year....43.2 , vs 43.7/44.9

So how bad was Lovejoy?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

wait

we're seriously comparing Ben Lovejoy and Adam Larsson?

thats a thing that is happening?

 

[JimEIV]

No. we are trying to figure out how big the drop off there was.

I say the drop off was Cory.

 

[Bleedred]

No. we are trying to figure out how big the drop off there was.

I say the drop off was Cory.

I don't disagree that Cory was the biggest drop off. I don't think he was the worst goaltender in the league though, Cam Ward and the Dallas tandem were both worse, so was Mrazek, as far as starters go. I'm pretty sure there were a couple more that I'm forgetting. He definitely was in the bottom third. As far as Cory goes though, he probably made Lovejoy look better than he was, as Lovejoy's on-ice save percentage was the fourth highest on the team this year for players who played 13 or more games. Only Auvitu and Noesen had a higher on-ice save percentage at even strength. So Ben Lovejoy's horrendous play was turning into goals at even strength less than other players horrendous play was turning into goals against. I chalk it up to the puck hitting the goalies more when he was on the ice, I don't expect this continue and it was still above his career average by quite a bit.

Coincidentally though, Larsson was third on the team in on-ice save percentage last year, among those who played 22 or more games.

Lovejoy's relative corsi this past year was -6.3, which only Smith-Pelly and Miles Wood were worse on the team, out of players that appeared in 25 or more games. Coleman's was worse and he played in 23 games, and then a bunch of other guys were worse who played in 11 or fewer games. Andy Greene was a frequent partner of Lovejoy's last year and just a -1.5 as far as a relative corsi goes. Lovejoy's -6.3 was also worse than anyone on the entire team last year, aside from 4 games of Jim O'Brien and 1 single game of Steve Santini.

While Schneider got significantly worse and allowed a much higher percentage of stoppable goals, the defense/team defense got worse too and Lovejoy was the biggest culprit. And that's who replaced Larsson's spot from last year, for the most part. Severson played 2 more minutes and 10 seconds per game than he did last year and Lovejoy played about a minute 45 less on average than Larsson did last year. In essence though, that's who replaced him and Milan Lucic is a lot closer to Taylor Hall than Ben Lovejoy is to Adam Larsson.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

wait

please tell me someone did not imply Schneider was the worst goalie in the league last year

 

[Bleedred]

wait

please tell me someone did not imply Schneider was the worst goalie in the league last year

I personally think the truth is Schneider was the worst player on the team and the worst starting goalie in the league and large chunk of those goals are purely his fault...But that's just me.

There's no way I could say he was worse than Cam Ward, Lehtonen, Mrazek, whoever played the most games in Colorado (Pickard), and probably a couple others.