Halfway point Boys... Multiply all stats by 2..

[DL44]

What do we see?

Hughes... A 58 pt dman...
Virtanen for 24g and 48 pts...
Petey... 88pts...
Canucks... 96pts

What else...

Click to read more...

 

[M2Beezy]

Career years for

JT Miller
Pettersson
Boeser
Horvat
Virtanen
Gaudette
Pearson
Etc

Thats something D-Leezy

 

[RussianRacket]

Thanks for the thread! Hughes would be unforeseen. Petey I don't think is too much of a surprise. But.... Virtanen? has been so good this season. This could be something special, ladies and gentlemen! Keep it up and GO CANUCKS!

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Not unrealistic either imo. Hopefully Hughes breaks 60 points and Petey breaks 90, that would be incredible.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I have a thread all about the pace our current team is on right here: Predicted Canuck Point Totals

Looking at our top-6 this season is pretty amazing.

Pettersson: 13th in points, 16th in goals scored, 9th in PP points, 21st in P/GP
Miller: 19th in points, 36th overall in goals, 11th in PP points, 26th in P/GP
Boeser: 23rd in points, 67th in goals, 24th in PP points, 30th in P/GP
Horvat: 48th in points, 81st in goals, 47th in PP points, 56th in P/GP
Pearson: 72nd in points, 81st in goals, 69th in PP points, 79th in P/GP
Virtanen: 113th in points, 81st in goals, 127th in PP points, 132nd in P/GP

*All stats are among forwards with at least 21 games played. I also didn't note ties hence listing 3 players as 81st in goals scored.

By both points and P/GP we have five players all producing at a first-line rate halfway through the season. By just goal scoring we have six first-line players as our top six. Even accounting for how much of our scoring is on the powerplay these are some impressive stats.

On defense let's look at our two standout players in Hughes and Edler using the same filter as with the forwards.

Hughes: 9th in points, 3rd in PP points, 13th in P/GP
Edler: 43rd in points, 39th in PP points, 18th in P/GP

Hughes being an elite PP QB in his rookie season is just fantastic. Edler being on pace for 40 points even factoring in missed games is also massive. These two are a big part of why both of our powerplay units are doing as well as they are. Heck, even Tanev is on pace for a career year points-wise (he already has more points than he's had in any season since '15 - '16) and Myers is starting to come around offensively.

Speaking of coming around offensively our PP is still on fire. It's clicking along at 26.7%, good for 4th in the league and is a big reason why our top six is scoring the way they are. The PK is league average tied for 15th with an 80.7% success rate. For special teams, the magic number tends to be 100% if you can beat that mark you're doing well we're currently at 107.4 which seems good.

As a whole, the team is on pace to score 270 goals; that's 51 more than last season. Our goals against pace is 246 which would give us a goal differential of +24 this season compared to the -29 we had last season. That's a big difference and probably why we're tracking to put up 15 more points in the standings this season compared to last year.

Of course, all of this said, if the injuries do hit or if Hughes hits a rookie wall in February this team could dip but if we keep going as we have, this should be a playoff team and possibly even in a divisional spot. That's not bad for a team carrying as much dead cap space as we are.

 

[Star Ocean]

Thanks for the thread! Hughes would be unforeseen. Petey I don't think is too much of a surprise. But.... Virtanen? has been so good this season. This could be something special, ladies and gentlemen! Keep it up and GO CANUCKS!

Too bad draft gap hasnt really narrowed since nylander also been on fire.

 

[elitepete]

What do we see?

Hughes... A 58 pt dman...
Virtanen for 24g and 48 pts...
Petey... 88pts...
Canucks... 96pts

What else...

Those stats will all go down other than EP who will get in the low 90s in points.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Those stats will all go down other than EP who will get in the low 90s in points.

Are you basing this off of things tightening up in the 2nd half? Or, are you saying that a lot of totals do not represent the true talent of the players outlined here?

 

[Cancuks]

Have you factored in the fact that most college players who turn pro hit a wall in the second half because they aren't used to playing so many games? Doubt Hughes gets much more than 45 points this season.

 

[Nomobo]

Have you factored in the fact that most college players who turn pro hit a wall in the second half because they aren't used to playing so many games? Doubt Hughes gets much more than 45 points this season.

Hughes is not like most college players.
I can see him hitting 60 pts if he stays healthy.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Have you factored in the fact that most college players who turn pro hit a wall in the second half because they aren't used to playing so many games? Doubt Hughes gets much more than 45 points this season.

Most college players you say, would you care to pull up the stats to prove that hypothesis?

 

[NUhockey]

Most college players you say, would you care to pull up the stats to prove that hypothesis?

Not saying this to be snarky but I'd actually love to see this hypothesis proved out as well. Give us the business @Cancuks

 

[Melvin]

People were trying to dunk on me recently for saying that Hughes doing this is historic.

The last time a rookie Dman put up 50+ was Vladimir Malakhov in 1993, as a 24 year old.

The last 20 year old to do it was Brian Leetch in 1989

The last 20 year old of Hughes size...

Realistically I think he falls off a bit but it's still insane what we are seeing.

 

[canuckking1]

Boeser, EP, Horvat have a stronger second of the season IMO. The rest will regress and Hughes will stay the same

EP- 90+ points

Boeser-80 points

Miller- 65-70

Horvat- 65 ( Much more even strength points in the second half)

Hughes- 52 points

JV- 20 goals and 15 assists - 35 points

 

[Canucks1096]

I always hear that they are less scoring in the second half because less Penalties called and games are more tight checking. Can someone confirm this is true with some real data? If this is true then the x 2 prediction might not really mean much.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I wouldn’t expect Hughes to tail off too much. He started out slow not being on the first PP. He’s been pretty consistent since then.

 

[Bankerguy]

I want

Petey to hit 90 points
Boeser, Miller, and Horvat to hit 70
Hughes to hit 60.
Virtanen to hit 20 goals, 40 points
Pearson to hit 50 points
Gaudette to finish the year at what would equate to a 35 pt pace
Edler to finish the year at would would equate to a 45 point pace
Myers to hit 25 points
Leivo to come back from injury and produce at a 35 point pace

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Hughes believes he can do better in the second half:
“I had a good first half but I can even elevate even more and that goes along with our team,” said Hughes. “We’re just starting to get really good. I can’t speak to the second half because I haven’t been there yet, but it’s going to be about getting your rest, getting to bed early and eating well. It’s something I haven’t focused as much on in the past.
“If I want to be healthy in the second half and make the impact I want to make, that’s something I need to focus on. I’ve learned where to exert my energy and where not to on the ice if I’m playing a lot. Sometimes, when I’m skating, I’m just going to move it (puck) and let it do the work.
“Last year, I skated every shift and now I’ve got good players around me and that’s just learning — especially on back-to-backs — and maybe the first game I’m just moving it (puck) a bit more. It’s capitalizing more. I’ve got a lot of chances and obviously put up some pretty good numbers but I can even do even better.”

 

[vanarchy]

I just want the youngins to get a playoff round in.

I expect EP40, Horvat and Brock Boeser will have a better second half of the season.

 

[bossram]

Are you basing this off of things tightening up in the 2nd half? Or, are you saying that a lot of totals do not represent the true talent of the players outlined here?

I think that he thinks many of the Canucks are playing above their talent level. Riding a bit of sh% luck to put points on the board.

I actually think that Lotto Line + Horvat + Hughes will keep roughly the same pace. Miller probably drops off a bit as he has an elevated sh%, but I could see Petey getting some more assists to compensate for goal-scoring regression, and vice-versa with Boeser. Horvat looks about career average in terms of his offensive creation and finishing. Hughes on PP1 should also make sure he keeps getting points on the board.

It's the depth scoring that I think will take a big hit. In the Leivo/Pearson waivers thread, I was a defender of them both. But Pearson isn't going to stay this hot. Gaudette isn't going to keep shooting 20%. Virtanen has been getting a lot bounces. If those guys cool off, it'll be a lot harder to win games (as we saw in November) because we'll be relying nearly entirely on the lotto line to provide goals.

Second half success will also largely be determined by continued excellence from Markstrom + Demko. A slight drop-off in goaltending will also mean some more difficult times...

 

[Orr4Norris]

Hughes believes he can do better in the second half:
“I had a good first half but I can even elevate even more and that goes along with our team,” said Hughes. “We’re just starting to get really good. I can’t speak to the second half because I haven’t been there yet, but it’s going to be about getting your rest, getting to bed early and eating well. It’s something I haven’t focused as much on in the past.
“If I want to be healthy in the second half and make the impact I want to make, that’s something I need to focus on. I’ve learned where to exert my energy and where not to on the ice if I’m playing a lot. Sometimes, when I’m skating, I’m just going to move it (puck) and let it do the work.
“Last year, I skated every shift and now I’ve got good players around me and that’s just learning — especially on back-to-backs — and maybe the first game I’m just moving it (puck) a bit more. It’s capitalizing more. I’ve got a lot of chances and obviously put up some pretty good numbers but I can even do even better.”

His skating is obviously impressive but what stands out the most for me is how damn smart this kid is. High IQ dman... what is his ceiling? The more I watch him, the more I think it’s alot higher than we think.

 

[Canuckle1970]

His skating is obviously impressive but what stands out the most for me is how damn smart this kid is. High IQ dman... what is his ceiling? The more I watch him, the more I think it’s alot higher than we think.

Yup, so mentally mature for a 20 year old.

 

[vancityluongo]

Assuming the players listed here play most of the remaining games, considering that there are players like Leivo and Ferland who we know won't.

 

[Grub]

Not unrealistic either imo. Hopefully Hughes breaks 60 points and Petey breaks 90, that would be incredible.

If this happens there’s no question we would make the playoffs easily.

 

[vanarchy]

The fact that we got Pearson for ERIK GUDBRANSON still blows my mind