Speculation: Gustav Forsling - Next contract discussion

[TheImpatientPanther]

Gustav(o) Forsling, may go down as one of Bill Zito's finest acquisitions as the Panthers GM.
Claimed off waivers, since coming to Florida:

Regular season:
​

Season​	Team​	GP​	G​	A​	PTS​	PTS/G​	82GP Pace​	+/-​	PIM​	SOG​	S%​	SOG/G​	HITS​	PPG​	PPP​	SHG​	SHP​	BLKS​	FOW​	FOW%​	PPTOI​	%PP​	%SH​	TOI​
2021-2022​	FLA​	71​	10​	27​	37​	0.52​	43​	41​	18​	145​	6.9​	2.0​	45​	0​	0​	0​	0​	86​	0​	​	00:11​	3.6​	47.1​	21:13​
2020-2021​	FLA​	43​	5​	12​	17​	0.40​	32​	17​	8​	94​	5.3​	2.2​	30​	1​	4​	0​	0​	43​	0​	​	00:27​	7.7​	51.0​	19:57​

Playoffs:​

Season​	Team​	GP​	G​	A​	PTS​	PTS/G​	82GP Pace​	+/-​	PIM​	SOG​	S%​	SOG/G​	HITS​	PPG​	PPP​	SHG​	SHP​	BLKS​	FOW​	FOW%​	PPTOI​	%PP​	%SH​	TOI​
2021-2022​	FLA​	10​	0​	3​	3​	0.30​	25​	7​	4​	21​	0.0​	2.1​	22​	0​	0​	0​	0​	7​	0​	​	00:07​	1.9​	45.9​	21:58​
2020-2021​	FLA​	6​	1​	1​	2​	0.33​	27​	1​	0​	16​	6.3​	2.7​	4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	6​	0​	​	00:01​	0.3​	67.3​	21:31​

There would have to be strong interest from Zito in re-signing him in July 2023, he's become a key core piece since arriving.
I can comfortably say he's an Elite 3D but budding into Elite 2D if this current progression continues.
He will likely age like fine wine, he's not overly physical but doesn't need to be. His gap control and stick checking often find turnovers.

His skating and ability to push pressure coming through NZ and into OZ should be used more often, he's the closest thing we have to Makar for that.
He uses the same smooth skating to get back on defense and work on the PK breaking up 2 on 1s.
His 86 blocked shots show he isn't scared to sacrifice the body.

If Weegar walks or possibly moved if an extension is not worked out, it becomes almost essential to pay Forsling.

What deal would be fair market value if Forsling replicates what he did last year?
**keep in mind, he'd be 28 by the time the new deal kicks in, just turned 26 this June**

Maybe he adds 5-8 extra points but not sure he will sniff 50 without PP time.
Maybe he has a slight regression with not much addition on defense from Zito or burns out a bit from playing 21 mins a night?

Poll above, still have loads of time to pick an answer but feel this topic will pop up all year long. ​

Click to read more...

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

he's become a key core piece since arriving... If Weegar walks or possibly moved...

He's a core piece and Weegar isn't?

 

[KW]

He's a core piece and Weegar isn't?

Should be thus.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

He's a core piece and Weegar isn't?

[If Weegar walks or possibly moved if an extension is not worked out, it becomes almost essential to pay Forsling.]

Never said that, more so if Weegar isnt staying, which is his right to do, we cant afford to lose Forsling too.

If Weegar stays, it'd be Ekblad, Forsling and Weegar for at least the next 3 years which I'm good with.

The actual contract I'm worried about is Ekblad, not sure he will age well with his skating. He'll be 30 by the time the new deal kicks in.

Top 3D until at least end of 2024-25 season
Ekblad @ $7.5 mil
Weegar @ $6ish mil
Forsling @ $6ish mil
= $ ~20 million

Cap going up will help dilute them a bit but Zito will have to be creative as that'd put us around 40 million for 5 players (Barkov + Huberdeau = ~$19 mil combined).

Cap should be around $85 mil by the time Huberdeau, Forsling and Weegar deals all take effect.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

[If Weegar walks or possibly moved if an extension is not worked out, it becomes almost essential to pay Forsling.]

Never said that, more so if Weegar isnt staying, which is his right to do, we cant afford to lose Forsling too.

If Weegar stays, it'd be Ekblad, Forsling and Weegar for at least the next 3 years which I'm good with.

The actual contract I'm worried about is Ekblad, not sure he will age well with his skating. He'll be 30 by the time the new deal kicks in.

Top 3D until at least 2025-26
Ekblad @ $7.5 mil
Weegar @ $6ish mil
Forsling @ $6ish mil
= $ ~20 million

Cap going up will help dilute them a bit but Zito will have to be creative as that'd put us around 40 million for 5 players (Barkov + Huberdeau = ~$19 mil combined).

Cap should be around $85 mil by the time Huberdeau, Forsling and Weegar deals all take effect.

Statistically speaking Forsling has been so far a very good top4 dman while Weegar has been analytics gem top pairing dman for a while now. I'd reckon that there's at least $1.5mil separation between Weegar and Forsling in their next contracts (depending on the term ofc). $6-7mil for Fors, $8.5mil for Weegs.

The Panthers have now eight LD AHLers under contract so I'm thinking that the mgmt is trying to brute force one of those rookies into a top4 role within a year or two. Then trade Montour for a pick(s) in order to make some room.

Huby's not going to get some ~$9mil per deal, it's just not going to happen.

Hart Hype: Is Jonathan Huberdeau truly worthy of league MVP consideration?

Jonathan Huberdeau is in the running for the Art Ross Trophy, but has he played well enough to warrant Hart Trophy consideration?

theathletic.com

The difference of an opinion between him and Zito about his importance to this team will eventually drive him out.
(if you're a cheap bastard like I am and can't access the article... pull up the source code and paste the latter part of it to Word)

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Statistically speaking Forsling has been so far a very good top4 dman while Weegar has been analytics gem top pairing dman for a while now. I'd reckon that there's at least $1.5mil separation between Weegar and Forsling in their next contracts (depending on the term ofc). $6-7mil for Fors, $8.5mil for Weegs.

The Panthers have now eight LD AHLers under contract so I'm thinking that the mgmt is trying to brute force one of those rookies into a top4 role within a year or two. Then trade Montour for a pick(s) in order to make some room.

Huby's not going to get some ~$9mil per deal, it's just not going to happen.

Hart Hype: Is Jonathan Huberdeau truly worthy of league MVP consideration?

Jonathan Huberdeau is in the running for the Art Ross Trophy, but has he played well enough to warrant Hart Trophy consideration?

theathletic.com

The difference of an opinion between him and Zito about his importance to this team will eventually drive him out.
(if you're a cheap bastard like I am and can't access the article... pull up the source code and paste the latter part of it to Word)

Weegar played with Ekblad, top line though, so Weegar can use this as leverage and he's basically went back to back 40 pt seasons now.

Forsling played with Gudas, he can leverage saying he ran the 2nd pair and would have produced more with top pair/PP time.

If they want to keep Forsling's ask down they will keep him on 2nd pair so he doesn't fully hit his potential, he's not likely to get a ton of PP time with Ekblad here.

Weegar seems poised for $6.25 to $6.75 million, could see Forsling hit $5.25 to $5.75 million, depending on term of course.
$1.5 Mil difference seems fair though.

Cap going up will inflate these deals as escrow/cap increases are slowly catching up.


As for Huberdeau, I'd be floored if he doesn't get $8.5 at minimum.
$9 mil seems like my gut guess, again, cap is going up, he's been producing as a top 3-5 LW in the league last 4 years, now on the PK, as bad as it was, adding elements to his game.
Gonna be hard to lowball him.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Weegar seems poised for $6.5 to $6.75 million, could see Forsling hit $5.5 to $5.75 million.

Zito won't be able sign those two at those kinds of prices. As far as I know only Ryan Ellis signed signed at such cheap price and that took place four years ago.

 

[kerrabria]

Forsling has been a model of consistency for us. If he keeps chugging along as a jack-of-all-trades 3D next season, I'm 100% comfortable giving him an 8-year-extension at a team friendly AAV.

 

[KW]

Weegar is not worth $8.5M.

I can’t express strongly enough how much I want Zito to trade him for something actually valuable.

 

[IceManCat]

Weegar is not worth $8.5M.

I can’t express strongly enough how much I want Zito to trade him for something actually valuable.

Same here I'd like to recuperate our 1st pick back

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Gustav Forsling right now is probably one of the most underrated defensemen in the entire NHL.

He almost hit .5 points per game without sniffing the powerplay last season. Was the team's 2nd most important penalty killer last season and no defender gives the puck away less on this team than Gus. He was also second on the team in defensive zone starts behind Gudas.

The Panthers rely on Forsling much more than most teams rely on their #3 defenseman. He is far, FAR too important to this group to let him go. Give him what he wants but thankfully he's not a particularly flashy player so I think 5x5 or 6 years at $5 million is a perfect deal for both sides.

I really loath 8 year contracts, they're just too long.

 

[Gentle Man]

I give Forsling 1 more dollar than Weegar's next contract.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

If he keeps up this type of play all year, he's getting the Weegar deal for sure.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I find it upsetting that no option is worth more than the 7.5 a year Ekblad is getting when Gustav is far and away better, should be 10 million a year. LOL

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I find it upsetting that no option is worth more than the 7.5 a year Ekblad is getting when Gustav is far and away better, should be 10 million a year. LOL

Now now, don't you manifest that stuff now. $6-7 mill is fair, he won't get any PP time to increase his ask IMO.

 

[ShootIt]

Man reading the first part of the thread again confused me till I looked at the date.

Dude is going to get paid.

7x6.5mil

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Not enough/not enough

 

[I am not exposed]

All the money!

 

[austropanther]

I find it upsetting that no option is worth more than the 7.5 a year Ekblad is getting when Gustav is far and away better, should be 10 million a year. LOL

Offensive stats always translate stronger moneywise than defensive abilities (don't agree with that but it is how it is). We will see at the end of the season how much leverage he got himself by having filled up his points column

 

[Dr Beinfest]

I love how everyone votes for the team-favored contract lol. I’d give him term in exchange for lower cap.

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

I still haven't wanted to watch this year. Has he been that good? If so, you love to see it.

 

[Gentle Man]

Forever years / All the dollars

 

[ANFTL17]

With the salary cap supposed to be going up by the time his current contract is over, if we can get him in the 5m-6m range I think that’s a steal, no matter the term. I also don’t see an issue with giving him 8 years if that’s what it takes to keep him here