Speculation: Grubauer and WSH goaltending situation

[Filthy Dangles]

What happens with Grubauer, in your opinion? I think these stanley cup playoffs might go a long way in determining that.

Do you think there's any chance WSH will keep him? I think some team is gonna pay him big time for a chance to be a #1. He's been playing much better than Holtby so you'd think why wouldn't WSH want to do the same.

They also have Samsonov down the pipeline.

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[pheasant]

Just like with Andersen and Gibson, or Bishop and Vasilevsky, you trade the older more expensive guy and hand the keys to the younger cheaper guy.

 

[Starat327]

What happens with Grubauer, in your opinion? I think these stanley cup playoffs might go a long way in determining that.

Do you think there's any chance WSH will keep him? I think some team is gonna pay him big time for a chance to be a #1. He's been playing much better than Holtby so you'd think why wouldn't WSH want to do the same.

They also have Samsonov down the pipeline.

Ill preface this by saying I know very little of the Capitals organization and their plans. But it would seem logical that having Holtby (who appears to be having a down year) would be the reason to trade Grub and bring over Samsonov to back up Holtby.

Locking Grub down with term could be seen as a block for Samsonov coming over, though i just read that he wont be extending with Metallurg. I think after the season he's having,. Grubauer would likely land the Capitals a better return as well.

 

[Starat327]

Just like with Andersen and Gibson, or Bishop and Vasilevsky, you trade the older more expensive guy and hand the keys to the younger cheaper guy.

Vasi and Gibson were already seen as the future of the franchise. From everything i've read, that title belong to Samsonov.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

This is like the Luongo-Schneider situation all over again, except for the fact Luongo played better than did Schneider.

 

[trick9]

They'll keep Holtby and Samsonov. Vezina -caliber goalies in their prime just don't get traded.

 

[pheasant]

Vasi and Gibson were already seen as the future of the franchise. From everything i've read, that title belong to Samsonov.

Then you do the very same thing shortly after by trading Grubauer and keeping Samsonov.

If they keep Holtby he will still be in the way of Samsonov.

 

[rent free]

They'll keep the guy with the vezina and trade the guy with more value to get more value back.

 

[Starat327]

Then you do the very same thing shortly after by trading Grubauer and keeping Samsonov.

If they keep Holtby he will still be in the way of Samsonov.

Its easier to justify keeping Holtby, who is already under contract, is proven, and could slide to backup if need be, and could use his experience to mentor Samonov along.

Grubby is going to be looking for starting money, and starting opportunity. He isnt guaranteed that in Washington now or in the future. Also, the optics of signing him with term could be seen by Samsonov as an indication he wont be getting minutes because they committed to Grubby.

 

[DRW204]

Holtby is a great regular seasons goalie, but a playoff bust. I think they give Grubauer a look this post season and then make a decision. Grubauer will likely be cheaper for WSH on a long-term deal so it will save some money for the Caps. I believe Samsonov's KHL contract is over this year as well so he can overtake the back-up role.

WSH is a factory for goalies...Samsonov, Holtby, Grubauer, Neuvirth and Varlamov. They've drafted some good ones

 

[pheasant]

Its easier to justify keeping Holtby, who is already under contract, is proven, and could slide to backup if need be, and could use his experience to mentor Samonov along.

Grubby is going to be looking for starting money, and starting opportunity. He isnt guaranteed that in Washington now or in the future. Also, the optics of signing him with term could be seen by Samsonov as an indication he wont be getting minutes because they committed to Grubby.

I'm not expecting Grubauer to get a 5 year deal or anything. More like 2-3. Hes 26, it isn't like he was always expected to be the next starter, he'll have to prove it. Plus he's RFA, so it isn't like he gets his pick of jobs.

I would see Holtby's 2 year contract as a bigger block for Samsonov than 2 or 3 years of Grubauer.

 

[Starat327]

I'm not expecting Grubauer to get a 5 year deal or anything. More like 2-3. Hes 26, it isn't like he was always expected to be the next starter, he'll have to prove it. Plus he's RFA, so it isn't like he gets his pick of jobs.

I would see Holtby's 2 year contract as a bigger block for Samsonov than 2 or 3 years of Grubauer.

Signing another goaltender for 2-3 years gives the implication to someone who has been wary of coming over that he isnt going to start for 2-3 years. It wouldnt surprise me in the least bit if Samsonov re-signed with Matallurg if the Caps signed Grubauer without trading holtby first.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Signing another goaltender for 2-3 years gives the implication to someone who has been wary of coming over that he isnt going to start for 2-3 years. It wouldnt surprise me in the least bit if Samsonov re-signed with Matallurg if the Caps signed Grubauer without trading holtby first.

I personally think he's going to sign for a year first, just as Boston signed Rask to see if he's capable of becoming a starter.

 

[Starat327]

I personally think he's going to sign for a year first, just as Boston signed Rask to see if he's capable of becoming a starter.

Im assuming you mean Samsonov? In which case, I find it unlikely hes coming over unless someone else moves. Playing in the AHL is well below his talent level, and presumably, less than what he'd make in the KHL as well.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Signing another goaltender for 2-3 years gives the implication to someone who has been wary of coming over that he isnt going to start for 2-3 years. It wouldnt surprise me in the least bit if Samsonov re-signed with Matallurg if the Caps signed Grubauer without trading holtby first.

The Caps GM visited Samsonov earlier this year in Russia and there were reports that the basis of a contract was agreed upon with Samsonov's reps and will be signed once his KHL deal is officially up April 30th.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Im assuming you mean Samsonov? In which case, I find it unlikely hes coming over unless someone else moves. Playing in the AHL is well below his talent level, and presumably, less than what he'd make in the KHL as well.

I meant Grubauer.

 

[pheasant]

Signing another goaltender for 2-3 years gives the implication to someone who has been wary of coming over that he isnt going to start for 2-3 years. It wouldnt surprise me in the least bit if Samsonov re-signed with Matallurg if the Caps signed Grubauer without trading holtby first.

I'm not that familiar with the situation to say if/when he would want to come to NA. But I don't see why he would be OK as a backup to Holtby for 2 years, but wouldn't be OK being a backup to Grubauer for 2 years. Especially since he would have a better chance to wrestle starts away from Grubauer.

This way seems best for Washington because they trade Holtby with term, so the value will be higher. And if they still end up with 2 quality goalies, they can trade the next one when he's established himself more as a starter.

The other way they trade a backup as a potential starter (Grubauer) first, then trade Holtby on his last year. They lose out both times.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Vasilevsky played parts of two seasons in the AHL. Samsonov is going to have to spend some time adjusting to the NA game before becoming a goaltender in the NHL.

Washington's goalie situation is this. They more likely than not will be moving one of Holtby/Grubauer. Holtby has a few more seasons at 6.1 million and Grubauer is a RFA who is playing himself into a starter's role somewhere. In the AHL the Caps have Pheonix Copley and Vitek Vanecek. Copley has a one way contract next year and the thought behind that is that he will be the stopgap until Samsonov is ready. The Caps will move one of Holtby/Grubauer and have Copley back up for the year until Samsonov gets some games under his belt. I've speculated Samsonov starts the year in Hershey and if he tears it up, he gets call ups and spot starts to see how NHL ready he truly is. That is similar to the approach TB used with Vasilevsky.

The consensus last offseason was that Grubauer was 99% the one getting moved in this offseason. That was before the Holtby struggles and Grubauer being the hot hand of late. I wouldn't be surprised if they now consider moving Holtby this offseason if he can fetch more assets that will help with the long term success of the franchise. It's really going to come down to how both play down the stretch and what happens in the post season. They can't financially keep both and also give raises to Carlson, Wilson, etc. which has been beaten to death in other Caps goalie threads

 

[Starat327]

I'm not that familiar with the situation to say if/when he would want to come to NA. But I don't see why he would be OK as a backup to Holtby for 2 years, but wouldn't be OK being a backup to Grubauer for 2 years. Especially since he would have a better chance to wrestle starts away from Grubauer.

This way seems best for Washington because they trade Holtby with term, so the value will be higher. And if they still end up with 2 quality goalies, they can trade the next one when he's established himself more as a starter.

The other way they trade a backup as a potential starter (Grubauer) first, then trade Holtby on his last year. They lose out both times.

Caps are in a fairly fortuitous circumstance either way. It really depends on what happens in the playoffs, and what drives the goalie market this year. Grubauer and holtby have two separate markets, i'd think.

A team like buffalo likely prefers Grubauer, whereas a team like St. Louis may prefer the more proven Holtby. It would probably behoove them to listen to offers on both and go from there.

the reasoning - and its certainly not bulletproof - is that working behind holtby is working behind a veteran keeper who has won a vezina. Theres value there in learning from someone who has that kind of experience. Conversely, Grubauer has always had the potential, but this season could be just a flash in the pan. If i was coming over to the situation from Russia, I'd be perfectly ok being caught behind one of the best goalies in the NHL the last few years. I'm not sure I'd be as ok with being stuck behind someone who just had a great season. That obviously would change if Grubauer goes out next year and has the same type of season. But as things stand right now, I think keeping Holtby would be less intrusive and more beneficial.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Vasilevsky played parts of two seasons in the AHL. Samsonov is going to have to spend some time adjusting to the NA game before becoming a goaltender in the NHL.

Washington's goalie situation is this. They more likely than not will be moving one of Holtby/Grubauer. Holtby has a few more seasons at 6.1 million and Grubauer is a RFA who is playing himself into a starter's role somewhere. In the AHL the Caps have Pheonix Copley and Vitek Vanecek. Copley has a one way contract next year and the thought behind that is that he will be the stopgap until Samsonov is ready. The Caps will move one of Holtby/Grubauer and have Copley back up for the year until Samsonov gets some games under his belt. I've speculated Samsonov starts the year in Hershey and if he tears it up, he gets call ups and spot starts to see how NHL ready he truly is. That is similar to the approach TB used with Vasilevsky.

The consensus last offseason was that Grubauer was 99% the one getting moved in this offseason. That was before the Holtby struggles and Grubauer being the hot hand of late. I wouldn't be surprised if they now consider moving Holtby this offseason if he can fetch more assets that will help with the long term success of the franchise. It's really going to come down to how both play down the stretch and what happens in the post season. They can't financially keep both and also give raises to Carlson, Wilson, etc. which has been beaten to death in other Caps goalie threads

Yes, for now, it seems Grubauer will move, but we'll still have to see.

 

[haveandare]

Not an easy choice. Holtby has been an elite goalie for a while though is having a bad year. Grubauer has never even played half a season but has been really good in his limited usage for a few years. Lots of risk either way.

 

[DRW204]

Grubauer (career to date) vs Schneider (career to trade)

	Ages	GP	GS	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO	MIN	QS	QS%
Grubauer	21 - 26	100	78	43	30	11	197	2585	2388	0.924	2.27	6	5215	49	0.628
Schneider	22 - 26	98	86	55	26	8	197	2715	2518	0.927	2.2	9	5372	58	0.674

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Schneider net the 9th OA in 2013

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Grubauer (career to date) vs Schneider (career to trade)

	Ages	GP	GS	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO	MIN	QS	QS%
Grubauer	21 - 26	100	78	43	30	11	197	2585	2388	0.924	2.27	6	5215	49	0.628
Schneider	22 - 26	98	86	55	26	8	197	2715	2518	0.927	2.2	9	5372	58	0.674

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Schneider net the 9th OA in 2013

Some Canucks fans contend he should have fetched more than just the 9th OA, blaming Gillis for not getting enough for him.

 

[hockeykicker]

They should keep both and have samsanov play a year in ahl. As we have seen with pens (even though they somehow kept winning) the caps would have zero depth after those two and maybe vanacek but who knows

 

[BelovedIsles]

I wonder if NYI will use the Calgary first for him.