"Grit" and "Jam" - how much are we lacking?

[RefsIdeas]

I wasn't sure if there's a way to really quantify "grit" and "jam" - so I tried my best to take a look at some stats from around the league.

I was looking at hits and blocked shots statistics and was floored by how poorly the Sabres perform there. I get it, neither are great stats. Hits can be somewhat inflated by what arena you play in, and both stats tend be misleading in the sense that if you have more hits or blocked shots - it doesn't mean you're winning - just that you've had the puck less (typically).

Well, the Sabres are one of the worst possession teams in regards to shots per game played and shots allowed per game played, and are the following:

- 2nd to last in blocked shots per game
- Dead last (by 128 total!) in hits. Over 2x less hits than the league leader.

I know some people are going to read this and roll their eyes, but when we have Tuch saying that he's not seeing the effort of some guys blocking shots, we hear the word "jam" thrown around all the time and how we lack it - I think those stats are pretty telling. We do have players on our team that provide next to no physical presence, and some aren't even making an appearance on the scoresheet. I get that it's not everybody's job to hit. I'm sure Gretzky wasn't amongst the league leaders in hits - that was never his job. But we're getting next to nothing out of some players offensively, defensively and physically. To put it into context:

- In his career, Victor Olofsson has 33 career hits (160gp). He currently has 24 points in 44 games. Mason Marchment has 63 hits in 28 games this year, and has 28 points in 28 games played. I get that he plays on a line with Reinhart and Lundell, so those total point stats are certainly inflated - but at least he's giving you something additional every night.

- Our leader amongst our forwards in blocked shots is Cody Eakin, with 24 in 49 games played. Staying over in Florida, a rookie(!), playing on a line that has possession far more than Cody Eakin - Anton Lundell - has 47 blocked shots in 49 games played.

- Rasmus Asplund has 12 hits in 52 games played this year. That's less than Tyler Ennis (161 pounds) and Kailer Yamamoto (153 pounds) while having less points than either of the other players. If you've watched Asplund at all this year - you'll notice he actively avoids contact.

- Our leader in hits (John Hayden with 87) ranks 113th in the entire NHL.

- Our leader in blocked shots (Robert Hagg with 77) ranks 50th in the entire NHL.

- The Sabres are tied for 22nd with two other teams for fewest fighting majors in the NHL.

- Anders Bjork, who plays on a 4th line "energy" line has 10 hits in 49 games.


Again - I want to stress that I understand that these are imperfect stats - but we don't have much to go off of other than this when trying to quantify the Sabres lack of physicality. We heard Kevyn Adams preach about getting more difficult to play against - I'm pretty sure this isn't what he had in mind. This is absolutely not to say that I think we need a lineup full of goons who hit everything in sight. Sometimes hockey just comes down to who has the most skilled players - and it wouldn't matter one bit who hits. But as far as having energy as a group, being a tougher team to play against and being a more enjoyable team to watch - I think these stats are pretty telling.

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[Jacob582]

We need to upgrade on all the players you mentioned.

 

[The Blunder Years]

We are an incredibly soft team. I’ve never seen a hockey team lack so much physicality when facing an opposing rush. We get caved in when defending the line and the front of the net. I want to see more aggression on both sides of the puck. I want our players digging at the goalie and hitting everything that moves.

Granato is going for a fast up tempo game with the puck, I would like to see some chippyness and aggression with that.

 

[Fjordy]

They could find some players with jam and replace soft players with them.

Radko Gudas is a very tough player, we need RD, even in Florida he plays more than Montour. There are some guys in UFA for this position who play the physical game.

I like Lawson Crouse. Kicking tires at St. Louis on Kostin, he doesn't play that much and is locked up due to the good depth of their lineup.

 

[jc17]

FWIW:
15 games with the highest percentage of blocked shots (blocked divided by total) this season resulted in a -4 goal differential, 3.4 GA per game

15 games of lowest percentage of blocked shots resulted in a -25 goal differential, 4.1 GA per game

Maybe its coincidental...maybe it matters. With that said, Carolina doesn't have a ton of blocked shots, even accounting for them not allowing many shots in general

 

[Chainshot]

They have a lot of players from top to bottom who peel off from any and all physical confrontations, both forwards and defensemen. Breaking it down a bit - forwards who are credited with a hit are usually doing so in pursuit of the puck on the forecheck. Defensemen are much more likely to be doing to because they are trying to defend against someone who already has the puck. A mark of a strong forechecking team is often their ability to finish checks, which separates people from the puck and sustains pressure.

Just looking at the forwards, if you look at hits/60 for players with at least 20 games this year as a mark of guys who are probably going to play the body, 7 of the top 50 in the NHL at the moment have passed through Buffalo and were never replaced. The top 60 guys have more than 10 hits per 60 minutes of TOI. Buffalo's top guy is Hayden is 58th (10.19). They do not establish a cycle. Their second highest is Gus at 5.66 and he's 152nd among all forwards.

That's a lot of "hard to play against" that just was never filled back out.

Now on defense, it can be said that hitting is overrated. Blocked shots also tend to be effort plays that don't necessary help with possession but do indicate a willingness to do what it takes to make sure the team is not being scored upon. For defensemen, there is only one Sabre in the top 50 in the league at blocks/60 and he's not under contract for next year (Hagg, #10 by guys with more than 20 games played this year at 6.58). Pysyk is at 4.59 while Samuelsson and Fitzgerald are both over 4 blocks per game but miss my cutoff.

They've stripped it out of the lineup either in trades or allowing gritty players to leave by free agency, but it's been a long, long time since they've had that as part of their identity. Watch Tampa - all of those guys finish their hits. Carolina? Florida? Calgary? All of 'em. It's not just something that falls on certain forwards and that is how it's been portrayed to fans in Buffalo now over the span of multiple owners and the last 4 GM's.

 

[RefsIdeas]

FWIW:
15 games with the highest percentage of blocked shots (blocked divided by total) this season resulted in a -4 goal differential, 3.4 GA per game

15 games of lowest percentage of blocked shots resulted in a -25 goal differential, 4.1 GA per game

Maybe its coincidental...maybe it matters. With that said, Carolina doesn't have a ton of blocked shots, even accounting for them not allowing many shots in general

Interesting stat. As far as Carolina - it may just be that they're not a great shot-blocking team. And that's OK. Reminds me of when people point to successful teams that have a poor faceoff percentage and point to that for faceoffs not mattering. You can be a good team and still have a weakness - it happens all the time, across all sports.

 

[Chainshot]

Interesting stat. As far as Carolina - it may just be that they're not a great shot-blocking team. And that's OK. Reminds me of when people point to successful teams that have a poor faceoff percentage and point to that for faceoffs not mattering. You can be a good team and still have a weakness - it happens all the time, across all sports.

And stylistically, being good at one aspect of this game for one team may work while not being good at it doesn't have the same impact. There have been more than one team that have looked into faceoffs and I recall two (I think it was the Blues and the Panthers) who came up with different conclusions (one that it mattered, the other that it didn't).

 

[jc17]

Interesting stat. As far as Carolina - it may just be that they're not a great shot-blocking team. And that's OK. Reminds me of when people point to successful teams that have a poor faceoff percentage and point to that for faceoffs not mattering. You can be a good team and still have a weakness - it happens all the time, across all sports.

Right its important to remember its not a cure all, but can be important.

Team style could matter too like chain said. With our goaltending it sort of makes sense that limiting what gets to them is big. However another caveat is injuries.

 

[RefsIdeas]

And stylistically, being good at one aspect of this game for one team may work while not being good at it doesn't have the same impact. There have been more than one team that have looked into faceoffs and I recall two (I think it was the Blues and the Panthers) who came up with different conclusions (one that it mattered, the other that it didn't).

That makes sense. Like with any stat, context matters. For a fun bonus stat - the Sabres are last in the NHL in faceoff percentage as well. Second last is Colorado. Colorado is clearly an immensely talented team with great defensive forwards and defenseman. Buffalo is bad all around. Colorado's support after a faceoff loss will be immensely better than the Sabres. I've always wanted to see a "clear faceoff win percentage". I would think that would be much more telling. A tie-up that ultimately goes to a team is much less likely to result in a designed faceoff play that can be executed. If you win a faceoff cleanly and can execute a designed play off of it - that's much more deadly. Clutch faceoff win percentage would be interesting as well (goalie pulled w/faceoff in offensive zone, shorthanded in defensive zone etc). All faceoffs aren't created equal.

 

[Chainshot]

This also gets to the idea of roles we were discussing the other day. And it is very much a case of how they are being coached - look at Asplund's initial recall (3.81 hits/60) puts him about smack-dab in the middle of the league in '19-20 among forwards with 20 games played. That dipped to 2.5/60 in limited time last year and is now completely off the grid with how Granato has them playing.

It's very much how they are being asked to play.

 

[Zman5778]

- Dead last (by 128 total!) in hits. Over 2x less hits than the league leader.

Keep in mind: Hits are a VERY subjective stat. It's not like shots on goal or even blocked shots. EVERY rink in the NHL tallies shots differently. And if you look over years of data, Florida is a team that characterizes basically anything as a hit (especially for the Panthers).....while who the holy hell knows what qualifies as a hit for the Sabres' stat keepers, as they're notoriously stingy.


That said, I measure "toughness" or "grit" or "jam" as.......how tough are the players to play against? How hard do they battle along the boards?

We're getting better in that regard, but we're clearly not there. On the forecheck, we don't have that many skaters at all that initiate contact. Cozens is probably our best at that, along with Girgensons. Okposo is hit or miss (no pun intended). But we've got no one else right now that's physical on the forecheck. Asplund CAN do that....and he's VERY good when he does, but it's intermittent. Krebs has that potential, but he needs time. I think Tuch will develop that. But guys like Tage, Skinner, Mitts, etc.....that's not their game and won't ever be. Which isn't a problem, as long as others step up.................

Defensively, I'm 99% sure that Granato et al are actively telling defensemen to let goalies see shots. I think that's why our shot block numbers are way down. That, of course, becomes a problem when a defenseman won't physically engage with an opposing forward in front of the net. I think that's also why you see defensemen trying to get their sticks in the way of shots as opposed to their body. Given the state of our goaltending.....I have no idea if this style is actually working. It SEEMED to work with UPL, who stopped most anything he saw. It doesn't work with Tokarski et al....who are all prone to the softie. It sometimes works for Anderson -- but the book is WAY out on him.......he can't handle pucks in his feet/low. I think it's absolutely possible to win in the NHL with low shot-block totals, but you need a goalie who'll stop 99% of what he sees.

Do we need guys who are tougher to play against? By god, do we.
Are they in the system? Mayyyyyyybe? Dahlin is going to be a bastard to play against very soon. Same with Sammy and Fitz. Problem is, that's not the style that Power, Joker, Johnson, etc play. Probably need one more dink defensively that's a little more reliable than Fitz. At forward? Cozens will be difficult to play against.....Asplund SHOULD be. Tuch has that capability. Hopefully Girgs provides that when healthy. Beyond that? We need help.

 

[DJN21]

We could put a roll of charmin on the ice and it would upgrade our team toughness...

 

[Chainshot]

Also for shits and giggles - Borgen averages 9.56 hits/60 and 4.13 blocks/60 in his time in Seattle (both down slightly from his time in B'lo last year). He's only appeared in 16 games for the Kraken though so he didn't show, much like how Samuelsson and Fitzgerald didn't due to the kind of arbitrary 20-game mark I grabbed. A ballpark of about half a teams games was what I was aiming for to not have odd anomalies like how Buffalo's highest shot blocked per 60 d-man is Wolanin in his one game.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

Pretty sure most supermarkets have more grit and jam than the Sabres…

 

[buffalowing88]

I normally prefer skill over "grit" but my goodness if this team doesn't lack a whole lot of both, one decade into a rebuild.

I'd be happy with some grit if it meant shedding the dead weight "grit" guys like Girgensons and getting guys who are actually unafraid of the moment.

I don't even know that Power has grit. We're just lacking in so many things. You could do a similar thread on just about any specific kind of skill. Shooters, playmakers, winners, actual hockey players. We need it all.

And also a coach. Because our guy is trying to match wits with superior minds every gameday and it's not working.

 

[Jacob582]

What do you think of this?

 

[Dingo44]

What do you think of this?

Not sure I want Casey in there right now especially while he is still recovering from his upper-body injury that required surgery.

 

[Buffaloed]

Rick Dudley was a proponent of jam whereas most other hockey people go for grit. I'm with Dudley on this one. You can have grit without jam aka Eakin, but jam cannot exist without grit.
Definition of GRIT
Definition of JAM

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Not sure I want Casey in there right now especially while he is still recovering from his upper-body injury that required surgery.

Yep, this.

I think replacing Bjork and Eakin would work wonders, get someone tough on RD as well. I don’t think every guy needs to be sandpaper, it’s just gotta be a bit more balanced throughout the lineup and we can’t have our nonscorers be charmin soft. Cozens, Okposo, and Tuch are a good start, personally I like Dahlin and Fitz on the backend- just two more guys up front and one guy on D and I’m less worried. Hayden ain’t great, would like to replace him with a better physical presence at some point as well, but it’s Cody and Anders who kinda sink any sorta balanced pushback imo. Would love if Thompson got a bit meaner as well, feels like there are few guys who’d wanna mess with him if he starts inserting himself into every scrum.

 

[Chainshot]

What do you think of this?

A nothing burger.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

A nothing burger.

Just gives Rivet another reason to crap on Mittlestadt

 

[BuffaloGooner]

Just gives Rivet another reason to crap on Mittlestadt

These two are clowns. I also think Gionta has some archaic opinions about the game when he comes on.

 

[Buffaloed]

This also gets to the idea of roles we were discussing the other day. And it is very much a case of how they are being coached - look at Asplund's initial recall (3.81 hits/60) puts him about smack-dab in the middle of the league in '19-20 among forwards with 20 games played. That dipped to 2.5/60 in limited time last year and is now completely off the grid with how Granato has them playing.

It's very much how they are being asked to play.

I heard Granato talking about Asplund the other day and he said Asplund has to play a hard, gritty, grinding game to succeed in the NHL. The hot start he got off to ended up working against him. When Asplund went into a scoring drought he started thinking too much and got off his game.

 

[jc17]

What do you think of this?

I did notice that live and thought it was a little strange. Not engaging because of the injury would make sense. Even if it wasn't injury related its not a huge deal but it did stand out that he had no interest joining in