Speculation: Gotta re-sign captain Dave? Don't you?

[Celtic Note]

So if Backes leaves, do you go after Okposo?

 

[jmwc95]

That isn't an appropriate analysis of the it. What players are directly comparable to Backes and how did they fair?

Shane Doan is probably the best comparable; similar style of game, similar durability and high end 2-way play. He averaged 60 points per 82 games between the ages of 32-36. Even factoring in Doan's higher overall production, Backes would be fine if he he was putting up 50 points and capable of carrying a defensive load when needed.

Players fall out of the League for many reasons, but the main 2 are injuries and loss of speed. Backes has had a remarkably healthy career and he has no reliance on speed. Betting that his game will hold up reasonably well for 5 years isn't a terrible bet.

Shane Doan is the exception, not the rule. For every Shane Doan (who was WAY better in his prime than Backes), there are two Ryan Callahans and Dustin Browns. They are way closer comparables to Backes. Before you say Backes is way better than Brown, Brown had 5 straight 50 point seasons with a 60 point season during that stretch.

 

[EastonBlues22]

So if Backes leaves, do you go after Okposo?

Okposo reminds me of Stewart in that he has a nice skill set shackled by a lesser hockey IQ. Also like Stewart, he tends to gravitate to playing a finesses East-West type of game that he just doesn't have the skill set to justify. The Blues couldn't turn Stewart into what they wanted him to be, and it would be a very expensive gamble to see if they have more success with Okposo.

I think Eriksson has a lot more substance to his game, and is a better fit for the Blues. They should kick the tires on him even if Backes stays. If he leaves, I think he'll probably be the guy the Blues push to sign (even if it means overpaying him).

 

[Total Bender]

Does bringing back Hitchcock increase the chances we sign Backes?

 

[TruBlu]

Does bringing back Hitchcock increase the chances we sign Backes?

I don't think it changes it either way.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think it increases the chances. Signing Backes is a win now move that could bite us in the ass down the road. Keeping Hitchcock is a win now decision. We were close but fell short so let's try to keep the team together for one more run type of mentality. It actually has the opposite effect on me. I don't think we can win a cup with Hitch without a TON of luck. So I don't want to bring Backes back for a futile season next year when it means we will be paying him $6M in 3-4 years as he is declining and we finally are getting a coach we can win with.

 

[Celtic Note]

Okposo reminds me of Stewart in that he has a nice skill set shackled by a lesser hockey IQ. Also like Stewart, he tends to gravitate to playing a finesses East-West type of game that he just doesn't have the skill set to justify. The Blues couldn't turn Stewart into what they wanted him to be, and it would be a very expensive gamble to see if they have more success with Okposo.

I think Eriksson has a lot more substance to his game, and is a better fit for the Blues. They should kick the tires on him even if Backes stays. If he leaves, I think he'll probably be the guy the Blues push to sign (even if it means overpaying him).

I agree about the IQ problems with Okposo. While I know you are not calling him Stewart, he is heads and shoulder a better all around player.

Ericksson scares me a bit. He could be great or could fizzle out. He would cost more than Backes, but has higher skill.

We really are in a predicament with Backes.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I agree about the IQ problems with Okposo. While I know you are not calling him Stewart, he is heads and shoulder a better all around player.

Ericksson scares me a bit. He could be great or could fizzle out. He would cost more than Backes, but has higher skill.

We really are in a predicament with Backes.

Absolutely agree that Okposo is a better player than Stewart. He just strikes me as a guy that *should* be a good fit here, but that ultimately won't be, and as someone whose never going to have quite the impact on the game that one would expect given his tools. Maybe I'm wrong on both counts, but I think it's an expensive gamble to find out if I am.

Eriksson definitely scares me as well, but there are only so many impact top 6 quality players available. He will probably have a lower price tag (in both AAV and years) than what Okposo will command.

 

[SteenMachine]

Absolutely agree that Okposo is a better player than Stewart. He just strikes me as a guy that *should* be a good fit here, but that ultimately won't be, and as someone whose never going to have quite the impact on the game that one would expect given his tools. Maybe I'm wrong on both counts, but I think it's an expensive gamble to find out if I am.

Eriksson definitely scares me as well, but there are only so many impact top 6 quality players available. He will probably have a lower price tag (in both AAV and years) than what Okposo will command.

I'd assume if we want Okposo to succeed we need a center that knows exactly how to take advantage of that skill set so he doesn't have to do the thinking just the hard work.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I'd assume if we want Okposo to succeed we need a center that knows exactly how to take advantage of that skill set so he doesn't have to do the thinking just the hard work.

Doesn't necessarily work like that. He's had a lot of opportunity with Tavares and never really seemed to click. Blues aren't going to find a better center for him to play with than that.

Since he has a low IQ, he actually seems to do a bit better when he's the guy with the puck on his stick (at least he knows where it's going then). Problem is that he doesn't consistently make good decisions with the puck. Forces too many East-West plays that he just can't pull off. Some work out, but the many that don't go a long way toward nullifying the ones that do. The Blues are not going to like that, especially if (for better or worse) similar traits factored into players like Perron and Oshie eventually being moved.

He could be fine here if he dedicates himself to playing a simpler North-South game. Just take the puck to the net if he gets it on his stick type of thing. I'm not sure it would take anyway, but putting him with other creative players seems like it could actively undermine that attempt to change his game.

 

[Celtic Note]

Doesn't necessarily work like that. He's had a lot of opportunity with Tavares and never really seemed to click. Blues aren't going to find a better center for him to play with than that.

Since he has a low IQ, he actually seems to do a bit better when he's the guy with the puck on his stick (at least he knows where it's going then). Problem is that he doesn't consistently make good decisions with the puck. Forces too many East-West plays that he just can't pull off. Some work out, but the many that don't go a long way toward nullifying the ones that do. The Blues are not going to like that, especially if (for better or worse) similar traits factored into players like Perron and Oshie eventually being moved.

He could be fine here if he dedicates himself to playing a simpler North-South game. Just take the puck to the net if he gets it on his stick type of thing. I'm not sure it would take anyway, but putting him with other creative players seems like it could actively undermine that attempt to change his game.

I have the same concerns with Okposo. Unfortunately, he and Ericksson are two of the bigger names out there. If we are looking to improve the team with a free agent signing, I am not enamored with the options.

Ericksson is probably the best option, but his contract demands seem way too high.

On the Okposo front, he would likely take a point dip if we acquired him given we don't have a Tavares to center him.

 

[Celtic Note]

With the subsequent Hitch news, maybe the best thing is for us to move on from Backes. If he is gone, Hitch might loose the room. Blues go on an early season skid. Hitch gets the axe. Army is let go at season's end. We finally break free of this cycle.

That seems screwed up to say, but it could very well be in our best interest in the mid to long-term.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

With the subsequent Hitch news, maybe the best thing is for us to move on from Backes. If he is gone, Hitch might loose the room. Blues go on an early season skid. Hitch gets the axe. Army is let go at season's end. We finally break free of this cycle.

That seems screwed up to say, but it could very well be in our best interest in the mid to long-term.

At this point I can't see Armstrong letting Backes walk. And if Hitch didn't get let go after last season's debacle, I don't see anyway we let him go mid season.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

With the subsequent Hitch news, maybe the best thing is for us to move on from Backes. If he is gone, Hitch might loose the room. Blues go on an early season skid. Hitch gets the axe. Army is let go at season's end. We finally break free of this cycle.

That seems screwed up to say, but it could very well be in our best interest in the mid to long-term.

Hitch is gone at the end of the year either way.

 

[BlueDream]

For the past few weeks I've been expecting Backes back, but it's really interesting to actually watch Armstrong's press conferences. You get a lot more than just reading snip-its here and there because you get to see what answers actually go with each question. Quotes many times are far too vague and out of context.

He was asked about Backes and that's when he said that he's 32, and then went into talking about how the league is getting younger and faster. He connected those two answers.

Of course he might want him back, but reading between the lines he didn't make it sound like it was as big a priority as the media would lead you to believe. Of course he HAS to say he wants the captain back, but I'm not so sure. With Armstrong though, you can never really tell considering how many times he's done the exact opposite of what he said the week before.

 

[SteenMachine]

I think when its a guy like Armstrong he realizes what needs to happen, he just doesn't have the gung-ho attitude about making sure it does. He has a great job, probably a lot of support from Stillman and doesn't feel pressure to win it all nearly as much as just make the team competitive and profitable. So he plays smart with Stillman's money and a lot of the time that means play safe and preach about patience and windows of opportunity.

If Stillman gives up on the team he sells it, tries to get a good return for his partners and moves on with his more-successful-than-most life.

Which gets old when your team has never won a championship; as a fan who's not going to just move along to a new team because things didn't work out. Fans are "fanatics" they're not gonna do anything but get upset that they haven't be rewarded for loyalty and heart break. You can't auction off all your Blues memorabilia and call it an even break. You want them to win, not to find a team that does and jump on the bandwagon. It's hard to accept these more passive philosophy's when you're not balancing a budget or building a career out of doing it.

 

[Club]

Probably re-sign

 

[Sniper]

If Armstrong's primary focus this off-season is resigning Schwartz (as said at the press conference), that could be the writing on the wall for Backes.

 

[Dbrownss]

Armstrong's comments didn't really reinforce "Backes is coming back" in my mind.

For me, he's becoming too susceptible to injury. It's borderline impossible to replace him but any deal with term will handcuff the team moving forward if he's not willing to take a huge discount.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

David Backes is one of the least injury prone players we have....

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I wouldn't mind Backes coming back, unless the deal was more than 4 years. Also, I sorta get the vibe they're gonna let him walk, and make a competitive offer on Stamkos. Reasoning is when they talked about having another person of equal value to take the pressure off Tarasenko. He also mentioned moving salary to fit under the cap if he needed to.

 

[BlueDream]

David Backes is one of the least injury prone players we have....

Oh he's prone to injuries. He just plays through them.

 

[Dbrownss]

Oh he's prone to injuries. He just plays through them.

This. He spent the majority of the season with an injury iirc

 

[Majorityof1]

I wouldn't mind Backes coming back, unless the deal was more than 4 years. Also, I sorta get the vibe they're gonna let him walk, and make a competitive offer on Stamkos. Reasoning is when they talked about having another person of equal value to take the pressure off Tarasenko. He also mentioned moving salary to fit under the cap if he needed to.

We can't make a competitive offer on Stamkos regardless of what we do with Backes. The cap isn't going up. Lehtera's more expensive extension kicks in and Schwartz is going to get a pretty hefty raise. There is no chance we can make a competitive offer on Stamkos unless we move a whole lot of salary. We'd have to move Lehtera, Berglund and Shattenkirk, maybe more to offer Stamkos a competitive offer and that would leave us holes to fill with peanuts.

To break it down further, we have 7 forwards, 7 D and 2 goalies who will definitely be in the NHL next year under contract for a total of $57.27M. That does not include Sobotka, Schwartz or any other RFA/UFA. The cap is not supposed to go up much, so let's call it $72M. That leaves $14.73M to sign Schwartz, 2 more top 9 players, 4 4th line/depth guys. Offering even $9M for Stamkos is impossible as Schwartz will get $4M minimum from arbitration, leaving less than $2M for 6 guys. Clearing Lehtera, Berglund and Shattenkirk gives us and additional $12.65M but adds 3 spots to fill. So we'd have roughly $14.5 to sign 9 players. We aren't getting anything but scrubs for that money. Our top 6 would be awesome but our bottom 6 would be horrible. And that's low balling Stamkos and not signing Schwartz long term. The reality would probably be a lot worse.

 

[TruBlu]

What I took from Armstrong's comments was that he wanted Backes back, but he's not going to overpay. I'm fine with that. I want Backes back, but the cap makes you make decisions for the betterment of the club. Backes will be here next season if he wants to be. If he wants to get paid, he will not be here.