Podcast (Audio) Got yer back (Ken Holland)

[Slats432]

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCn0p3qiAy-SLRJRbXGjvNAQ

So I was thinking about what Holland said on Rishaug/Strudwick pod and the words were "Dollars in Dollars out"

This could be the year, but next year should be the year

It looks like it will be so hard to bolster the team this year that we might all not see things pan out to our expectations. That said next year looks like the better positioned year.

JP is gone.
Janmark/Ryan/Shore gone.
Murray gone.
Lucic and Sekera buyouts off the books.
Klefbom and Smith LTIRs gone. (Holland mentions that this overage handcuffs him.)

We have $74,417,500 committed with 9F, 6D, 2G signed. Bouchard, McLeod and Klostin to re-up. Very manageable.

Could easily see a Barrie/Fogele move out to add some major pieces to help. I would love to see us push this year, but it looks like much more freedom next year.

Click to read more...

 

[bone]

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCn0p3qiAy-SLRJRbXGjvNAQ

So I was thinking about what Holland said on Rishaug/Strudwick pod and the words were "Dollars in Dollars out"

This could be the year, but next year should be the year

It looks like it will be so hard to bolster the team this year that we might all not see things pan out to our expectations. That said next year looks like the better positioned year.

JP is gone.
Janmark/Ryan/Shore gone.
Murray gone.
Lucic and Sekera buyouts off the books.
Klefbom and Smith LTIRs gone. (Holland mentions that this overage handcuffs him.)

We have $74,417,500 committed with 9F, 6D, 2G signed. Bouchard, McLeod and Klostin to re-up. Very manageable.

Could easily see a Barrie/Fogele move out to add some major pieces to help. I would love to see us push this year, but it looks like much more freedom next year.

I'm only seeing 8F, 6D, and 2G signed unless you are assuming one of the Bakersfield rookies, but then if you were, your cap number is wrong.

Likely need at least $6M if all bridge deals for these 3. Possibly $8-$10M if you go longer term with any one of them. That leaves you with 10F, 7D, and 2G which means 4 players to sign. League minimum next year is $775K, so 4 players is minimum $3.1M.

$74.4 + $6 + $3.1 = 83.5M which is the expected cap for next year. This doesn't consider potential bonuses that could still be attained this year by Bouchard and (less likely Broberg, Holloway).

We're still extremely tight next year. The only difference being that we may be able to get a few bucks under without LTIR which would allow for us to accumulate a little throughout the year by going with reduced roster for stretches.

 

[Slats432]

I'm only seeing 8F, 6D, and 2G signed unless you are assuming one of the Bakersfield rookies, but then if you were, your cap number is wrong.

Likely need at least $6M if all bridge deals for these 3. Possibly $8-$10M if you go longer term with any one of them. That leaves you with 10F, 7D, and 2G which means 4 players to sign. League minimum next year is $775K, so 4 players is minimum $3.1M.

$74.4 + $6 + $3.1 = 83.5M which is the expected cap for next year. This doesn't consider potential bonuses that could still be attained this year by Bouchard and (less likely Broberg, Holloway).

We're still extremely tight next year. The only difference being that we may be able to get a few bucks under without LTIR which would allow for us to accumulate a little throughout the year by going with reduced roster for stretches.

97, 29, 93, 91, 18, 55, 56, 37 (8F) is correct, 10 F with McLeod and Kostin signed. We aren't that tight since neither McLeod or Kostin will break the bank. We also have the extra money from losing JP, Shore, Janmark, Ryan. The money saved on buyouts is like 2 extra players. It is also possible the cap will be up more than the $1M which I think is very likely. If we had the extra $2.25 M right now a deal would be way more simple.

If you take a look at a team like Colorado or Vegas, (Colorado has $70M or so committed and 7 UFAs and 2 important RFAs) (Vegas....I think their payroll is $96M with 15 in IR.) Tampa has $80M committed to 14 players. Toronto has $73 M committed to 12 players. So 11 players all at under $1M? Compared to a lot of other contenders we are in much better shape than they are.

 

[bone]

97, 29, 93, 91, 18, 55, 56, 37 (8F) is correct, 10 F with McLeod and Kostin signed. We aren't that tight since neither McLeod or Kostin will break the bank. We also have the extra money from losing JP, Shore, Janmark, Ryan. The money saved on buyouts is like 2 extra players. It is also possible the cap will be up more than the $1M which I think is very likely. If we had the extra $2.25 M right now a deal would be way more simple.

If you take a look at a team like Colorado or Vegas, (Colorado has $70M or so committed and 7 UFAs and 2 important RFAs) (Vegas....I think their payroll is $96M with 15 in IR.) Tampa has $80M committed to 14 players. Toronto has $73 M committed to 12 players. So 11 players all at under $1M? Compared to a lot of other contenders we are in much better shape than they are.

I never suggested breaking the bank. Simply if McLeod Kostin and Bouchards new contracts add up to $6M. We'll be right up against the cap again. You do realize you need to sign the replacements for Shore, Janmark, Ryan and JP and the minimum salary of 4 players is $3.1M.

The contracts already signed add up to $74.4M. So the math is simple. $74.4 + 3.1M (assuming absolute minimum for the four replacement players) and we're already at $77.5M before signing McLeod, Kostin and Bouchard.

Looking at comparables for Bouchard, look at Boqvist who was drafted one spot ahead of him, hasn't excelled but is a regular with similar stats to Bouchard. His contract is $2.6M/year on a three year bridge.

For McLeod (and note he's already taken a discount for the team this year coming about $300k below expected, so he may have already been promised that money back). Eetu Luostarine drafted one year earlier at 42 vs. McLeods 40, got 1.5/year on the strength of 12G, 34 Pts in his first 130 games. McLeod has 18G, 38 points in 120 games. So he's $1.5 minimum, likely higher.

Kostin is tougher to gauge, but 14 G and 24 points in 82 game for a big physical player coming off what will likely be a 10-15 goal campaign, with arbitration rights, so you're likely looking in the Geekie/Kolesar realm for a minimum. They each settled prior to arbitration for $1.4. But neither were first round draft picks.

So I'm seeing a minimum of $5.5M here meaning we're at $83.0 before considering any of the 4 replacement players being better than league minimum. If one those 4 replacements was Bourgeault, it's now $83.15M. We'll also have potential significant bonus' for Holloway and Broberg possible next year as well.

Granted, we are in "better" shape than recent years, but more work needs to be done in the offseason than just signing the RFAs and plugging in holes on the UFA market if we want to have any flexibility next year.

Or better yet, the league finally pulls their head out of their ass and allow a transitional year instead of locking it at $83.5M, when current revenues suggest it would be closer to $93M next year if not for the players still paying off Covid losses (but are something like 90% there). So hopefully they yield a bit and push it at least to $86, then the team can get a little more strategic.