Going down to the wire

Discussion in 'HFNHL Talk' started by HFNHL Red Wings, Apr 30, 2004.

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  1. With only 4 games left the Wings final playoff position and potential first round opponent is yet undecided. Here is a quick review of Detroits three possible first round opponents.

    Wings vs. Sharks
    Although this would require the Wings moving into the 3rd overall spot in the West that possibility is growing with the Wings a mere one point back of the Ducks and with 2 games in hand.
    The Sharks remain the scariest of the three teams with their high tempo offence. There are some chinks in the Sharks defence that the Red Wings would look to exploit but Detroit is not a team built for shootouts with teams high powered offences like San Jose.
    Probablity of success against the Sharks = 40%

    Wings vs. Blue Jackets
    There is no question that the Jackets have been the hottest team of late. Since the aquisition of Brodeur around the All-Star break the Jackets have been red hot with the best record in the Western Conference even surpassing the Blues for second half performance.
    Despite the Jackets success GM Niece is confident his team can handle Columbus' offence and given enough opportunity will overcome the 'Brodeur' factor.
    Probability of success against the Jackets = 70%

    Wings vs. Ducks
    Every year the Ducks in some way or form influence the Red Wings final playoff position but ironically the two teams have never met in the play-offs. This year looks equally unlikely but not impossible. Should the Jackets somehow leap frog both the Wings and Ducks only then would these two teams meet.
    The Ducks have an interesting but delicately balanced team. GM Gledhill has finally found effective line combinations but in a series where linematching would come in to play is there any other possible combination?
    The Wings and Ducks share many similarities in their team philosophy and so a series between these two rivals could come down to who gets the most favourable bounces.
    Probability of success against the Ducks = 50%
     
  2. Ohio Jones

    Ohio Jones Game on...

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    Interesting anlysis overall Drew. But clearly this 70% figure is mere baiting on your part. Unlike the other teams you mentioned, the Jackets have a huge degree of line flexibility, so matching up against my boys is going to be one nifty trick. It also means my guys can play high-octane in consecutive games iwthout getting tired. I've had zero games lost this season to fatigue, and only a handful to any sort of injuries. Plus, you mention "the Brodeur factor" - time and again we've seen that goaltending wins series. Playing behind my experienced "D", I'd put up Potvin (at least the HFNHL incarnation of him) against Kolzig any day. Brodeur? There's no question who wins that comparison.

    One other consideration: in our season series (such as it was at only two games - days 45 and 50), you won once and tied once. But both games were incredibly close - a 3-2 win and a 3-3 tie. Over the two games both teams had roughly the same number of shots, and the only PP to tally was mine. A very even series.

    But those games were against a very different Columbus squad than the one facing my opponent (whoever they may be) in Round 1: Brent Johnson was in net in Columbus for the tie, Kevin Weekes taking the loss in Detroit. Even Potvin is an improvement on those two this season; Martin Brodeur is a quantum leap forward.

    Since those games, I've also added Niklas Sundstrom, Mikael Renberg, Glen Wesley and some guy named Brendan Shanahan...

    As the ad says, this ain't your father's Oldsmobile.

    Now you may feel your boys match up well against mine, and I imagine there would be a lot of line juggling in that series to try and exploit perceived weaknesses, but that goes two ways - just as your big wingers will be trying to pressure my predominantly skilled defencemen, my speedy forwards will be outracing your skaters. And don't forget that I've got a fair bit of size and grit on my side, too.

    So I feel pretty comfortable in saying that if the matchup is indeed Detroit/Columbus, you're going to be hard-pressed to make that sponsorship agreement you've got (the one that requires a first-round playoff win).

    ACTUAL Probability of success against the Jackets = 45%, boyo! :banana:
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2004
  3. Vaive-Alive

    Vaive-Alive Registered User

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    The Blue Jackets are more of a Ford Mustang. Without the engine ( Brodeur ) the car is nothing more than scrap metal.

    I'd liken the Red Wings to an old Blue Bird school bus - plenty of intensity and power, but with an engine named Kolzig that has a history of breaking down. If they get behind, it will be a tough climb back up, and Blue Birds are horrible on hills.
     
  4. Ohio Jones

    Ohio Jones Game on...

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    Nice! :handclap:

    I don't actually buy domestic, though, (whatever that means in these days of multinationals and convergence...).

    I tend to think of my Jackets more like the new Toyota Tundra Double Cab: blue-collar work ethic. Exceptional engine in Brodeur, tough and durable, with quality and balance throughout. Versatile. Not overpowered, but with enough guts to do what you need efficiently and reliably.

    Mmmm, truck. :thumbu:
     
  5. Donga

    Donga Registered User

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    WRITE IN ENGLISH PEOPLE!!! I DON'T UNDERSTAND A WORD OF AUTOMOBILE JIBBERISH YOU JUST WROTE .... :mad:
     
  6. Phoenix AGM

    Phoenix AGM Registered User

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    Drew, Doug, I have three words for you:

    Steel cage match.
     
  7. Well looks like we are going to get that steel cage match ... OH YA
    The Sharks with two games at hand (both against the Avalanche) should move past the Jackets and bump them down to 6th.
    If Ducks lose or the Wings win one of their two remaining games than the Wings will finish third.

    With Douglas having a back made up of little more than peanut brittle a wrestling match works fine for me :)
     
  8. Ville Isopaa

    Ville Isopaa Registered User

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    Note: The Av's have no reason left to lose and can play for wins again.. Watch out you little sharkies... :jump:
     
  9. Ohio Jones

    Ohio Jones Game on...

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    It's destiny, Drew - a round one match-up! Make you glad you stuck around after all? ;)

    Of course, I needn't worry about my "peanut brittle" back - one shot to the gut and your ulcer will drop you for me! :lol:
     
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