Goaltender Game-to-game Consistency

[Beef Invictus]

It certainly seems to pass the eyeball "does that mesh with accepted reality?" test.

 

[Doctor No]

One possible improvement would be to run this only on a normalized save percentage (weighting a goaltender's ESSV, PPSV and SHSV by league-average proportions) - that would eliminate some of the variation that would result solely from the fact that a goaltender faces eight power plays one night, and zero the next night.

Although then I wouldn't be able to run this back as far as I have game log data.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It would still be useful, though.

 

[Doctor No]

Here are updated numbers with games through last night (April 7). Remember that these are weighted by shots faced (not minutes played as in the original post). Average reflects games within 0.5 standard deviations of average (with above average and below average the remainder).

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg
Keith Kinkaid 2013|0.00|0%|100%|0%
Matt Hackett 2013|0.00|100%|0%|0%
Michael (Mike) Leighton 2013|0.00|100%|0%|0%
Jussi Rynnas 2013|0.00|0%|0%|100%
Jeff Frazee 2013|0.00|0%|100%|0%
Alex Stalock 2013|0.12|46%|54%|0%
Brian Boucher 2013|0.17|11%|89%|0%
Darcy Kuemper 2013|0.20|0%|100%|0%
Rick DiPietro 2013|0.39|100%|0%|0%
Robin Lehner 2013|0.44|8%|50%|42%
Cedrick Desjardins 2013|0.47|73%|27%|0%
Daniel (Danny) Taylor 2013|0.49|54%|46%|0%
Chad Johnson 2013|0.56|0%|27%|73%
Kevin Poulin 2013|0.57|61%|39%|0%
Michal Neuvirth 2013|0.68|33%|31%|36%
Henrik Lundqvist 2013|0.70|13%|49%|38%
Antti Niemi 2013|0.72|10%|47%|43%
Martin Biron 2013|0.74|12%|37%|52%
Jean-Sebastien Giguere 2013|0.75|5%|73%|22%
Philipp Grubauer 2013|0.75|76%|0%|24%
Jason LaBarbera 2013|0.76|20%|48%|32%
Steve Mason 2013|0.77|42%|32%|27%
Ryan Miller 2013|0.78|22%|46%|33%
Martin Brodeur 2013|0.78|28%|39%|33%
Mathieu Garon 2013|0.80|44%|41%|15%
Anders Lindback 2013|0.81|25%|58%|16%
Justin Peters 2013|0.82|37%|38%|25%
Jonas Hiller 2013|0.83|32%|36%|32%
Craig Anderson 2013|0.83|20%|0%|80%
Anton Khudobin 2013|0.84|12%|28%|60%
Jacob Markstrom 2013|0.84|11%|40%|48%
Petr Mrazek 2013|0.84|47%|0%|53%
James Reimer 2013|0.84|33%|39%|28%
Ray Emery 2013|0.87|20%|43%|37%
Leland Irving 2013|0.87|27%|49%|23%
Ondrej Pavelec 2013|0.88|36%|28%|36%
Viktor Fasth 2013|0.92|26%|34%|41%
Jonathan Bernier 2013|0.94|18%|23%|59%
Jonathan Douglas Quick 2013|0.95|23%|47%|29%
Niklas Backstrom 2013|0.95|22%|41%|37%
Kari Lehtonen 2013|0.96|29%|36%|35%
Corey Crawford 2013|0.96|20%|31%|49%
Tuukka Rask 2013|0.98|24%|27%|49%
James (Jimmy) Howard 2013|0.98|21%|35%|45%
Semyon Varlamov 2013|0.98|39%|28%|33%
Ben Bishop 2013|0.98|19%|32%|49%
Jonas Gustavsson 2013|0.99|41%|40%|19%
Devan Dubnyk 2013|1.00|13%|49%|38%
Joey MacDonald 2013|1.00|43%|47%|10%
Cory Schneider 2013|1.01|19%|26%|55%
Ilya Bryzgalov 2013|1.01|31%|45%|24%
Jake Allen 2013|1.01|33%|18%|50%
Cam Ward 2013|1.02|33%|31%|36%
Yann Danis 2013|1.03|36%|41%|24%
Braden Holtby 2013|1.03|23%|38%|39%
Jhonas Enroth 2013|1.04|35%|14%|51%
Carey Price 2013|1.06|33%|19%|49%
Jaroslav Halak 2013|1.06|36%|35%|29%
Ben Scrivens 2013|1.07|27%|33%|40%
Jose Theodore 2013|1.07|51%|18%|31%
Nikolai Khabibulin 2013|1.07|18%|39%|43%
Marc-Andre Fleury 2013|1.07|28%|25%|47%
Evgeni Nabokov 2013|1.08|21%|58%|21%
Peter Budaj 2013|1.09|21%|44%|35%
Johan Hedberg 2013|1.10|46%|30%|24%
Sergei Bobrovsky 2013|1.10|22%|30%|48%
Dan Ellis 2013|1.10|25%|43%|33%
Pekka Rinne 2013|1.14|22%|33%|45%
Richard Bachman 2013|1.15|75%|1%|24%
Christopher Nilstorp 2013|1.15|56%|0%|44%
Scott Clemmensen 2013|1.16|50%|24%|26%
Michael (Mike) Smith 2013|1.18|32%|27%|41%
Alvaro (Al) Montoya 2013|1.19|38%|26%|37%
Thomas Greiss 2013|1.26|31%|21%|48%
Brian Elliott 2013|1.27|42%|30%|28%
Tomas Vokoun 2013|1.27|30%|21%|49%
Roberto Luongo 2013|1.37|42%|18%|39%
Miikka Kiprusoff 2013|1.39|50%|4%|47%
Josh Harding 2013|1.76|51%|0%|49%
Chris Mason 2013|1.80|43%|0%|57%

 

[Doctor No]

Kiprusoff is very interesting - played in 20 games so far this season, and only 4% of his games can be described as "average".

 

[pdd]

Kiprusoff is very interesting - played in 20 games so far this season, and only 4% of his games can be described as "average".

As someone who's been paying extra attention to the Flames this year, I can say that MacDonald has outplayed Kipper among Flames goalies. It really hasn't been pretty many nights when Kipper's been in.

 

[pdd]

I'd love to see year-by-year results for this. I don't mean to sound like I'm saying "Taco, I command you!" but a spreadsheet with yearly results (going back at least until 93-94 ) would be awesome.

Also, one recommendation? Include an "Average+" column, and an "Average-" column, which include all games played within 0.5 SD of zero and above/below (your existing "Average" column). This provides a quick look to see what kind of effect a goaltender had on his team.

For example, based on your posted numbers Patrick Roy's 1986 and 1993 playoff runs would have a 100% Average+. That's about as strong an argument as you can get for the Conn Smythe.

 

[Doctor No]

It's actually something that I could do quite easily (I've got a template set up that takes my Access output, and puts it into HFboards table template). I'm worried about spamming the board itself.

Although the traffic is pretty low here, so maybe I'll do it anyhow.

Ultimately, I'll have it on TGHP, but want to wait until I have strength of schedule figured out as well.

I like the Average+ and Average- columns idea, but will save that for a later iteration.


NOTE: I'm adding the shots totals to give a sense of sample size for each goaltender - these are the sum of each game's totals from my database. They probably won't match exactly the NHL season totals in the official record, and I have yet to do any major reconciliation effort between my game results and the official record.

 

[Doctor No]

1984-85 regular season NHL:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
Darren Aksel Jensen 1985|0.00|100%|0%|0%|30
Marco Joseph Baron 1985|0.00|100%|0%|0%|9
Chris Clifford 1985|0.00|0%|0%|100%|8
Jacques Cloutier 1985|0.00|0%|100%|0%|37
Darren Pang 1985|0.00|100%|0%|0%|22
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1985|0.00|0%|0%|100%|2
Daryl K. 'Razor' Reaugh 1985|0.00|0%|100%|0%|35
Ed Staniowski 1985|0.00|0%|100%|0%|10
Richard D. (Rick) Heinz 1985|0.25|0%|100%|0%|26
Don Sylvestri 1985|0.25|0%|100%|0%|52
Mike Sands 1985|0.51|62%|38%|0%|89
Mike Zanier 1985|0.79|37%|25%|38%|100
Allan Raymond (Al) Jensen 1985|0.81|23%|40%|37%|311
Brian George Hayward 1985|0.82|22%|50%|28%|1770
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1985|0.83|19%|36%|45%|1626
Doug Keans 1985|0.83|22%|53%|25%|669
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1985|0.83|16%|37%|46%|1062
Cleon Daskalakis 1985|0.83|55%|33%|12%|136
Thomas Patrick (Tom) Barrasso 1985|0.84|18%|45%|38%|1276
Frank Caprice 1985|0.86|39%|45%|16%|814
Gregory Steven (Greg) Stefan 1985|0.86|36%|48%|16%|1368
Patrick Michael (Pat) Riggin 1985|0.87|26%|32%|42%|1472
Murray Bannerman 1985|0.87|20%|43%|36%|1864
Robert F. (Bob) Sauve 1985|0.87|45%|33%|22%|581
Donald William (Don) 'Bobo' Beaupre 1985|0.87|20%|47%|33%|941
Bob Froese 1985|0.88|11%|26%|63%|432
Steve Penney 1985|0.88|28%|41%|32%|1344
Grant Fuhr 1985|0.88|23%|40%|37%|1413
Corrado Micalef 1985|0.89|22%|56%|22%|972
Per-Erik (Pelle) Lindbergh 1985|0.91|21%|30%|49%|1910
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1985|0.91|37%|31%|32%|867
Gilles Meloche 1985|0.92|29%|26%|45%|949
Roland Joseph 'Rollie The Goalie' Melanson 1985|0.92|26%|52%|22%|843
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1985|0.93|27%|52%|21%|1322
Warren Skorodenski 1985|0.94|16%|32%|52%|759
William John (Billy) Smith 1985|0.95|29%|42%|29%|1101
Bob Janecyk 1985|0.96|26%|36%|38%|1483
Denis Bernard Herron 1985|0.96|29%|36%|35%|1357
Michael Dennis (Mike) Liut 1985|0.98|30%|26%|44%|1381
John Vanbiesbrouck 1985|0.99|25%|38%|37%|1356
Donald Laurie (Don) 'Dart' Edwards 1985|1.00|32%|40%|28%|882
Glenn Allen 'Chico' Resch 1985|1.00|39%|35%|26%|1401
Daniel Hector (Dan) Bouchard 1985|1.01|30%|23%|47%|856
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1985|1.03|20%|49%|31%|1237
Robert T. (Bob) Mason 1985|1.03|23%|25%|52%|291
Douglas Henry (Doug) 'Soapy' Soetaert 1985|1.04|35%|33%|32%|619
Timothy John (Tim) 'Timber' Bernhardt 1985|1.05|31%|27%|43%|1109
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1985|1.07|25%|29%|46%|1448
Ken Wregget 1985|1.08|30%|39%|31%|740
Marc Behrend 1985|1.08|32%|36%|32%|670
'King' Richard Brodeur 1985|1.08|33%|41%|26%|1597
Roberto Romano 1985|1.09|33%|31%|36%|991
Darren Joseph Eliot 1985|1.09|28%|45%|27%|941
Rick Wamsley 1985|1.10|17%|31%|52%|1105
Allan 'Ernie' Bester 1985|1.11|35%|32%|33%|431
Mark Holden 1985|1.11|22%|55%|22%|103
Richard Sevigny 1985|1.13|29%|26%|46%|492
Michel Dion 1985|1.18|35%|30%|35%|315
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1985|1.18|35%|39%|26%|1558
Ronald Albert (Ron) Low 1985|1.18|25%|38%|36%|629
Brian Ford 1985|1.19|34%|66%|0%|296
Hannu Juhani Kamppuri 1985|1.22|55%|32%|14%|331
Richard V. (Rick) St. Croix 1985|1.22|38%|51%|11%|320
John Murdoch 'Chi Chi' Garrett 1985|1.33|54%|32%|14%|241
Steve Weeks 1985|1.36|36%|23%|41%|728
Edward Dario (Eddie) Mio 1985|1.46|58%|16%|26%|172

 

[Doctor No]

1985 Stanley Cup playoffs:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
John Vanbiesbrouck 1985|0.00|0%|0%|100%|12
Douglas Henry (Doug) 'Soapy' Soetaert 1985|0.00|0%|100%|0%|9
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1985|0.00|0%|100%|0%|26
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1985|0.00|0%|0%|100%|35
Daniel Hector (Dan) Bouchard 1985|0.00|100%|0%|0%|24
Rick Wamsley 1985|0.02|0%|100%|0%|56
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1985|0.08|0%|33%|67%|3
Bob Janecyk 1985|0.20|0%|0%|100%|100
Thomas Patrick (Tom) Barrasso 1985|0.33|23%|77%|0%|151
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1985|0.44|0%|0%|100%|148
Patrick Michael (Pat) Riggin 1985|0.55|0%|44%|56%|39
Gregory Steven (Greg) Stefan 1985|0.63|100%|0%|0%|69
Warren Skorodenski 1985|0.63|50%|50%|0%|28
Bob Froese 1985|0.64|56%|34%|10%|73
Brian George Hayward 1985|0.65|24%|54%|22%|153
Corrado Micalef 1985|0.69|100%|0%|0%|18
Marc Behrend 1985|0.72|18%|0%|82%|95
Doug Keans 1985|0.76|57%|20%|23%|109
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1985|0.81|36%|23%|42%|475
Gilles Meloche 1985|0.84|7%|25%|67%|258
Grant Fuhr 1985|0.93|9%|27%|64%|523
William John (Billy) Smith 1985|0.99|8%|38%|54%|182
Murray Bannerman 1985|1.00|33%|31%|36%|546
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1985|1.01|24%|39%|37%|98
Per-Erik (Pelle) Lindbergh 1985|1.07|17%|11%|72%|488
Allan Raymond (Al) Jensen 1985|1.08|0%|56%|44%|84
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1985|1.09|0%|74%|26%|128
Steve Penney 1985|1.12|34%|27%|39%|300
Donald William (Don) 'Bobo' Beaupre 1985|1.32|72%|0%|28%|79

 

[Doctor No]

1985-86 NHL regular season:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
Warren Skorodenski 1986||0%|100%|0%|45
Allan 'Ernie' Bester 1986|0.00|100%|0%|0%|3
Robert T. (Bob) Mason 1986|0.00|0%|0%|100%|5
Chris Pusey 1986|0.00|100%|0%|0%|12
Glenn M. Healy 1986|0.00|100%|0%|0%|35
Kari Takko 1986|0.00|0%|100%|0%|34
Ron Scott 1986|0.11|100%|0%|0%|56
Denis Bernard Herron 1986|0.37|39%|61%|0%|90
Terry Kleisinger 1986|0.38|7%|56%|36%|110
Cleon Daskalakis 1986|0.62|40%|60%|0%|63
Marc G. D'Amour 1986|0.64|4%|62%|34%|306
William Edward (Bill) Ranford 1986|0.69|18%|0%|82%|116
Roland Joseph 'Rollie The Goalie' Melanson 1986|0.73|33%|48%|19%|827
Edward Dario (Eddie) Mio 1986|0.76|58%|42%|0%|454
Mike Vernon 1986|0.77|25%|46%|29%|417
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1986|0.80|15%|26%|60%|1445
Thomas Patrick (Tom) Barrasso 1986|0.80|19%|50%|31%|1775
Gilles Meloche 1986|0.82|19%|41%|41%|999
Bob Janecyk 1986|0.84|41%|36%|23%|1113
Steve Penney 1986|0.84|41%|50%|9%|445
Grant Fuhr 1986|0.87|20%|44%|36%|1300
William John (Billy) Smith 1986|0.88|26%|42%|32%|1203
Jon Casey 1986|0.92|18%|32%|50%|783
Ken Wregget 1986|0.92|30%|29%|42%|895
Alain Chevrier 1986|0.92|42%|40%|19%|950
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1986|0.93|20%|50%|30%|1179
Bob Froese 1986|0.93|17%|27%|56%|1268
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1986|0.94|16%|34%|50%|1483
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1986|0.94|28%|37%|35%|1790
Allan Raymond (Al) Jensen 1986|0.94|23%|45%|33%|1165
Roberto Romano 1986|0.94|22%|49%|29%|1388
Darrell May 1986|0.95|27%|73%|0%|85
Darren Joseph Eliot 1986|0.96|47%|32%|21%|787
Rick Wamsley 1986|0.96|17%|38%|45%|1317
Brian George Hayward 1986|0.98|50%|32%|18%|1392
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1986|0.98|15%|44%|41%|1135
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1986|0.98|33%|34%|32%|1152
Donald William (Don) 'Bobo' Beaupre 1986|0.98|22%|25%|52%|1690
Steve Weeks 1986|0.99|35%|43%|22%|722
Donald Laurie (Don) 'Dart' Edwards 1986|0.99|44%|29%|26%|1145
John Vanbiesbrouck 1986|1.00|26%|29%|45%|1625
Per-Erik (Pelle) Lindbergh 1986|1.00|26%|45%|29%|199
Craig Richard Billington 1986|1.00|47%|29%|25%|482
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1986|1.00|21%|34%|45%|605
Timothy John (Tim) 'Timber' Bernhardt 1986|1.01|44%|28%|28%|706
Jacques Cloutier 1986|1.01|16%|32%|51%|426
Patrick Michael (Pat) Riggin 1986|1.02|37%|37%|25%|1086
Kirk Alan McLean 1986|1.03|46%|54%|0%|59
Robert F. (Bob) Sauve 1986|1.03|18%|32%|50%|1202
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1986|1.04|41%|39%|20%|782
Marc Behrend 1986|1.04|28%|72%|0%|219
'King' Richard Brodeur 1986|1.07|38%|34%|28%|1722
Corrado Micalef 1986|1.08|48%|35%|18%|342
Wendell Young 1986|1.08|31%|22%|46%|529
Mark Andrew 'Trees' LaForest 1986|1.10|48%|32%|20%|735
Michael Dennis (Mike) Liut 1986|1.12|34%|34%|33%|1559
Glenn Allen 'Chico' Resch 1986|1.12|41%|25%|34%|967
Murray Bannerman 1986|1.15|29%|37%|33%|1550
Douglas Henry (Doug) 'Soapy' Soetaert 1986|1.15|17%|38%|45%|519
Darren Aksel Jensen 1986|1.16|20%|39%|41%|750
Daniel Hector (Dan) Bouchard 1986|1.18|40%|29%|30%|784
Clint Malarchuk 1986|1.18|23%|23%|53%|1347
Gregory Steven (Greg) Stefan 1986|1.24|28%|42%|30%|1067
Daren James Puppa 1986|1.25|28%|44%|28%|194
Doug Keans 1986|1.29|27%|24%|48%|794
Frank Caprice 1986|1.33|57%|18%|25%|154
Richard Sevigny 1986|1.60|42%|2%|56%|257
Sam St. Laurent 1986|1.84|43%|0%|57%|111

 

[Doctor No]

1986 Stanley Cup playoffs:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1986||100%|0%|0%|22
Patrick Michael (Pat) Riggin 1986|0.00|0%|100%|0%|26
Wendell Young 1986|0.00|0%|100%|0%|32
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1986|0.00|0%|0%|100%|27
Glenn Allen 'Chico' Resch 1986|0.00|100%|0%|0%|1
William John (Billy) Smith 1986|0.00|0%|100%|0%|33
Daniel Hector (Dan) Bouchard 1986|0.00|100%|0%|0%|22
Daniel 'The Bandit' Berthiaume 1986|0.00|0%|0%|100%|43
Marc Behrend 1986|0.00|0%|0%|100%|7
Robert F. (Bob) Sauve 1986|0.06|0%|100%|0%|60
Murray Bannerman 1986|0.23|100%|0%|0%|40
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1986|0.40|39%|61%|0%|33
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1986|0.41|0%|39%|61%|59
Grant Fuhr 1986|0.48|11%|46%|43%|272
'King' Richard Brodeur 1986|0.50|0%|49%|51%|80
William Edward (Bill) Ranford 1986|0.50|45%|55%|0%|44
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1986|0.50|0%|38%|62%|505
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1986|0.68|5%|31%|63%|326
Michael Dennis (Mike) Liut 1986|0.68|0%|31%|69%|226
Steve Weeks 1986|0.70|48%|22%|30%|63
Donald William (Don) 'Bobo' Beaupre 1986|0.71|17%|44%|39%|157
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1986|0.74|60%|0%|40%|48
Mike Vernon 1986|0.91|12%|35%|52%|579
Rick Wamsley 1986|0.91|38%|23%|39%|307
Ken Wregget 1986|0.95|21%|18%|60%|322
Clint Malarchuk 1986|0.96|16%|38%|46%|81
Brian George Hayward 1986|1.05|81%|0%|19%|31
John Vanbiesbrouck 1986|1.09|27%|18%|55%|471
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1986|1.10|31%|0%|69%|260
Bob Froese 1986|1.28|18%|56%|26%|123

 

[Doctor No]

1986-87 NHL regular season:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
Troy C. Gamble 1987|0.00|0%|100%|0%|23
Timothy John (Tim) 'Timber' Bernhardt 1987|0.00|100%|0%|0%|7
Ron Scott 1987|0.00|100%|0%|0%|35
Steven P. (Steve) 'Gunner' Guenette 1987|0.05|100%|0%|0%|52
Christopher Arnold Terreri 1987|0.56|35%|61%|3%|172
Allan Raymond (Al) Jensen 1987|0.61|37%|63%|0%|340
Bob Janecyk 1987|0.66|42%|58%|0%|222
Cleon Daskalakis 1987|0.75|55%|45%|0%|51
Richard Sevigny 1987|0.78|88%|0%|13%|56
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1987|0.84|15%|48%|37%|1198
Warren Skorodenski 1987|0.84|29%|0%|71%|90
Steve Weeks 1987|0.84|35%|42%|23%|614
Robert F. (Bob) Sauve 1987|0.85|27%|30%|44%|1496
Glenn Allen 'Chico' Resch 1987|0.86|12%|33%|56%|443
Brian George Hayward 1987|0.87|23%|39%|37%|959
Rick Wamsley 1987|0.88|23%|50%|28%|1209
Steve Penney 1987|0.90|65%|24%|11%|131
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1987|0.93|34%|33%|33%|1150
Robert T. (Bob) Mason 1987|0.93|29%|24%|47%|1244
Gilles Meloche 1987|0.95|28%|38%|35%|1125
Doug Keans 1987|0.95|22%|41%|36%|907
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1987|0.95|30%|33%|37%|760
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1987|0.96|34%|29%|36%|1220
Douglas Henry (Doug) 'Soapy' Soetaert 1987|0.97|61%|11%|28%|368
Kari Takko 1987|0.97|32%|19%|48%|1064
John Vanbiesbrouck 1987|0.98|33%|30%|37%|1359
Ron Hextall 1987|0.98|19%|28%|53%|1927
Gregory Steven (Greg) Stefan 1987|1.00|32%|44%|24%|1079
Murray Bannerman 1987|1.00|24%|46%|31%|1120
Eldon Wade 'Pokey' Reddick 1987|1.01|31%|35%|34%|1255
Patrick Michael (Pat) Riggin 1987|1.01|18%|43%|39%|703
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1987|1.02|26%|39%|35%|1216
Jacques Cloutier 1987|1.02|35%|37%|27%|1044
Donald William (Don) 'Bobo' Beaupre 1987|1.02|30%|33%|37%|1428
Clint Malarchuk 1987|1.02|25%|39%|35%|1511
Roland Joseph 'Rollie The Goalie' Melanson 1987|1.03|24%|43%|33%|1411
Daren James Puppa 1987|1.04|66%|0%|34%|90
Bob Froese 1987|1.04|27%|33%|40%|873
Mike Vernon 1987|1.06|25%|37%|38%|1549
Grant Fuhr 1987|1.06|24%|42%|34%|1148
Mark Andrew 'Trees' LaForest 1987|1.07|39%|7%|54%|109
Michael Dennis (Mike) Liut 1987|1.07|29%|36%|36%|1627
William John (Billy) Smith 1987|1.07|31%|47%|22%|1005
Daniel 'The Bandit' Berthiaume 1987|1.07|24%|32%|44%|810
Alain Chevrier 1987|1.08|33%|41%|26%|1789
Frank Caprice 1987|1.10|42%|21%|37%|645
Ken Wregget 1987|1.10|37%|23%|39%|1596
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1987|1.10|25%|26%|49%|962
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1987|1.11|24%|41%|35%|812
'King' Richard Brodeur 1987|1.11|35%|26%|39%|1385
Thomas Patrick (Tom) Barrasso 1987|1.11|25%|49%|26%|1200
Doug Dadswell 1987|1.12|42%|0%|58%|72
Allan 'Ernie' Bester 1987|1.13|30%|27%|43%|985
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1987|1.14|25%|36%|39%|920
Roberto Romano 1987|1.14|25%|41%|33%|747
Darren Joseph Eliot 1987|1.16|38%|48%|14%|682
Craig Richard Billington 1987|1.20|51%|28%|21%|569
Mike Sands 1987|1.21|34%|0%|66%|103
William Edward (Bill) Ranford 1987|1.24|35%|28%|36%|1137
Wendell Young 1987|1.24|33%|38%|28%|222
Karl Friesen 1987|1.27|84%|0%|16%|80
Kirk Alan McLean 1987|1.32|38%|29%|33%|73
Sam St. Laurent 1987|1.36|27%|16%|56%|135

 

[Doctor No]

1987 Stanley Cup playoffs:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg|Shots
Steve Weeks 1987|0.00|0%|100%|0%|10
Allan 'Ernie' Bester 1987|0.00|0%|0%|100%|17
Darren Joseph Eliot 1987|0.00|100%|0%|0%|29
Rejean (Reggie) Lemelin 1987|0.15|0%|100%|0%|47
Donald Andrew (Andy) Moog 1987|0.15|100%|0%|0%|37
William Edward (Bill) Ranford 1987|0.19|45%|55%|0%|55
Robert F. (Bob) Sauve 1987|0.26|0%|100%|0%|136
Doug Keans 1987|0.37|100%|0%|0%|58
Eldon Wade 'Pokey' Reddick 1987|0.37|0%|81%|19%|73
Rick Wamsley 1987|0.39|0%|47%|53%|55
Grant Fuhr 1987|0.53|4%|59%|37%|509
Brian George Hayward 1987|0.55|8%|56%|36%|306
Clint Malarchuk 1987|0.57|52%|39%|9%|56
Peter H. (Pete) Peeters 1987|0.60|30%|70%|0%|73
Glen A. 'Red' Hanlon 1987|0.65|0%|18%|82%|229
William John (Billy) Smith 1987|0.67|0%|38%|62%|21
Glenn Allen 'Chico' Resch 1987|0.73|42%|0%|58%|12
Daniel 'The Bandit' Berthiaume 1987|0.74|4%|36%|60%|210
Gregory H. (Greg) Millen 1987|0.75|20%|27%|52%|122
Ken Wregget 1987|0.78|9%|33%|57%|366
Mike Vernon 1987|0.85|8%|71%|21%|136
Ron Hextall 1987|0.86|17%|22%|62%|764
Michael Dennis (Mike) Liut 1987|0.93|61%|23%|16%|158
Robert T. (Bob) Mason 1987|0.93|23%|1%|75%|145
Bob Froese 1987|0.94|11%|48%|41%|94
John Vanbiesbrouck 1987|0.97|14%|32%|54%|111
Roland Joseph 'Rollie The Goalie' Melanson 1987|1.03|10%|69%|20%|153
Mario 'Goose' Gosselin 1987|1.10|23%|38%|39%|326
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1987|1.13|27%|54%|19%|173
Kelly Stephen Hrudey 1987|1.18|12%|22%|65%|462
Gregory Steven (Greg) Stefan 1987|1.46|15%|0%|85%|249

 

[Doctor No]

(more to come)

Sorry about the full names (with nicknames) - it was the easiest way I had to flip last-first to first-last.

If you want to see the games that produced each result, you can click on the link to the goaltender, and look at their "NHL GAME LOGS".

 

[Jyrki]

Good work!

 

[Doctor No]

Hi all -

Due to a three-day weekend and a wonky knee, I've finally got the NHL portion of this on my website (at least as far back as 1984-85, which is as far as I currently have game-by-game information on my site).

It's on the individual goaltenders' pages, under "REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS" and "POSTSEASON STATISTICS". For instance:

http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/roy.html
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/hasek.html
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/brodeurm.html

"VAR" represents the goaltender's seasonal variation (where a 1.0 is considered average consistency).

"BAVG", "AVG", and "AAVG" represent the percentage of time the goaltender performed below, at, or above the benchmark described above.

I've also tried to explain this in more detail in the glossary:
http://hockeygoalies.org/stats/glossary.html#avg

I'm looking forward to learning some things from this - do goaltenders get more consistent as they age? Is a goaltender's consistency a predictive measure of future performance (not just of consistency, but overall)?

Happy hunting!

 

[Doctor No]

One other thing, that at least I find more interesting. I've also added this to the team-by-team pages (for instance):

http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/detroit.html
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/montreal.html
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/colorado.html

I listed those last two because I've just spent the past few minutes eyeballing Patrick Roy against his backups.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Thought it was interesting, and telling perhaps, that during Hasek's "peak", his lowest AAVG numbers are similar to the career highs seen on Roy/Brodeur's records, and his BAVG percentages were also lower (single digit in '98/99). Most dominating goalie when on, not nearly the length of consistency of the other two, though, who were (by your numbers) demonstrably "average" more often in terms of AVG%.

 

[Doctor No]

It's an interesting juxtaposition - Hasek (in his prime) appeared to have more "great" games, while Roy (in his prime) appeared to have fewer "bad" games.

Arbitrarily defining Roy's prime as 1987-88 through 1994-95, and Hasek's prime as 1993-94 through 1999-00...

Percentage of "great" games:
Roy: 44%, 53%, 55%, 43%, 49%, 47%, 54%
Hasek: 64%, 52%, 58%, 61%, 55%, 61%, 54%

Percentage of "bad" games:
Roy: 15%, 15%, 15%, 11%, 12%, 25%, 17%
Hasek: 12%, 12%, 20%, 15%, 17%, 9%, 20%

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

It's an interesting juxtaposition - Hasek (in his prime) appeared to have more "great" games, while Roy (in his prime) appeared to have fewer "bad" games.

Arbitrarily defining Roy's prime as 1987-88 through 1994-95, and Hasek's prime as 1993-94 through 1999-00...

Percentage of "great" games:
Roy: 44%, 53%, 55%, 43%, 49%, 47%, 54%
Hasek: 64%, 52%, 58%, 61%, 55%, 61%, 54%

Percentage of "bad" games:
Roy: 15%, 15%, 15%, 11%, 12%, 25%, 17%
Hasek: 12%, 12%, 20%, 15%, 17%, 9%, 20%

Really? Putting the 5 best numbers from above in order (they split the "mediocre" last two 1-1):

Roy: 11, 12, 15, 15, 15
Hasek: 9, 12, 12, 15, 17

 

[Doctor No]

Good call - I don't focus well at night. I don't focus well during the day, either, but it's not during the day now, so that's moot.

That's borne out in their z-scores as well - here are the same save seasons, showing the number of standard deviations the season was beyond an average year:

Hasek: 4.6, 3.6, 3.3, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 1.5
Roy: 2.2, 3.1, 3.8, 2.4, 3.6, 1.3, 3.4

Anything in the 4.0+ range is phenomenal (actully, anything in the 3.0+ range is phenomenal; things beyond 4.0 are otherworldly).

 

[MarkGio]

First I must say this is very impressive. Way to go Chalupa!

I'd be curious to know if ice-time, or starts, will affect the consistency of a goalie. I bet a back-up struggles with consistency because they can't find their groove. They aren't used to their defensemen. I'm even curious to know, beyond the eye test, if a goalie becomes more consistent over time, likely as a result of getting used to the forwards in the league.

The biggest application in my eyes is knowing which type of goalie is a consistent one. Drafting a style of goalie will help clubs build their roster and draft goalies who play a style likely to be steady. We also could correlate steady goaltending to a lot of things: wins, puck possession, maybe some other stuff.

 

[Doctor No]

Thanks!

Regarding the backup condundrum, I bet that you're right - to the extent that consistency is not random (and there's probably some randomness in there), it's probably related to having a known schedule in advance. That's one of the things that I hope to study (although if someone beats me to it, I'm okay with that - I just want to know the answer ).

 

[MarkGio]

More fooling around: the three greatest goaltenders of the modern era, by season:

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg
Martin Brodeur 1992|0.65|40%|31%|29%
Martin Brodeur 1994|0.90|14%|37%|49%
Martin Brodeur 1995|1.03|17%|46%|36%
Martin Brodeur 1996|0.82|20%|37%|43%
Martin Brodeur 1997|0.97|16%|31%|54%
Martin Brodeur 1998|0.97|25%|31%|44%
Martin Brodeur 1999|0.89|31%|36%|33%
Martin Brodeur 2000|1.01|26%|35%|39%
Martin Brodeur 2001|1.02|32%|31%|38%
Martin Brodeur 2002|0.99|32%|32%|36%
Martin Brodeur 2003|1.00|28%|30%|42%
Martin Brodeur 2004|0.87|27%|38%|35%
Martin Brodeur 2006|1.01|21%|35%|44%
Martin Brodeur 2007|0.99|21%|37%|43%
Martin Brodeur 2008|0.86|15%|44%|41%
Martin Brodeur 2009|1.09|23%|35%|43%
Martin Brodeur 2010|1.08|27%|33%|40%
Martin Brodeur 2011|1.06|37%|39%|25%
Martin Brodeur 2012|1.06|31%|28%|41%
Martin Brodeur 2013|0.81|37%|27%|36%

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1991|0.48|0%|66%|34%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1992|0.98|23%|42%|35%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1993|0.96|25%|35%|40%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1994|0.83|12%|25%|64%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1995|0.86|12%|36%|52%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1996|0.97|20%|22%|58%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1997|1.01|15%|24%|61%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1998|1.02|17%|28%|55%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 1999|0.95|9%|30%|61%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2000|1.03|20%|25%|54%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2001|1.00|23%|25%|51%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2002|0.86|22%|41%|37%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2004|1.15|19%|48%|33%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2006|0.84|14%|38%|49%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2007|1.06|26%|37%|37%
Dominik 'The Dominator' Hasek 2008|0.99|22%|51%|26%

|Variation|Bel Avg|Average|Ab Avg
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1985|0.00|0%|0%|100%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1986|0.93|20%|50%|30%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1987|0.84|15%|48%|37%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1988|0.82|15%|41%|44%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1989|0.87|15%|33%|53%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1990|0.86|15%|30%|55%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1991|0.70|11%|46%|43%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1992|0.85|12%|39%|49%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1993|0.86|25%|28%|47%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1994|1.05|17%|29%|54%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1995|0.96|23%|36%|40%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1996|1.12|20%|35%|46%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1997|0.99|20%|34%|46%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1998|0.90|25%|30%|45%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 1999|0.93|22%|40%|38%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 2000|0.79|19%|45%|37%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 2001|0.92|13%|48%|40%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 2002|0.98|23%|28%|50%
'Saint' Patrick Roy 2003|0.98|26%|24%|50%

Looking at data like this, one could establish when a goalie is at their prime, especially over large sample sizes of goalies and those who play for many teams throughout their career. Such information could significantly change the trade and contract value of a goalie at a certain age.