Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
- 53,829
- 31,041
Ottawa gave up a ton last year and in his year end media availablity, Paul Maclean mentioned h wanted to shave off about 50 goals this year.
So how do we do it? What contriutions do we need to reach that goal and how achievable is it?
Here's my take;
Spezza gone: This one hurts the offence, but helps on the goals against front. I still think healthy he's a net positive, but the high risk high reward/ high instance brand of hockey his lines have employed here probably add up to about 5extra goals a year when compared to what the tandem replacing his minutes will allow (Zibanejad/Legwand)
-5
Healthy Karlsson: I think a rejuvinated and healthy Karlsson will probably shave off a few goals from last years outing; he likely can't be any worse. imo, we can probably save 5 more goals against here, maybe more.
-5
Goalies bouncing back: Anderson and Lehner were up and down last year, combining for a team .909 sv%. If they can get that up to .915, there' another 16goals shaved off, if they manage their career average with ottawa of a combied .919, it's a 27 goal difference. Lets split the difference and hope for 22 goals here.
-22
Maturing young D Corps: I think with Cowen, Wiercioch, and Ceci all getting another year of experience, we can probably shave off a few rookie mistake goals; I'm hoping for 5 here.
-5
Stay out of the box: I don't much faith that we an do this one, but it could make a big difference. I'll cautiously hope for 3 less PP goals against.
-3
Shorthanded Goals against: We gave up 10 SHGA last year, the three seasons prior were 4, 7, and 1(prorates to 2 over an 82 games sched). I think we can cut last years number in half, so there's 5 goals
-5
Reduce the shots against: We gave up a ton to the tune of almost 35 a game. We should be able to realistically reduce that number to about 30 but I'll project based on 32. Though some the effect of reducing shots against is already accounted for in the above points, I think it's fair to project a few more goals against saved here as well, so a conservative 5 extra goals (trust me when I say it could be more, just using last years sv% and 30 shots per game would have saved 35 goals against and 20 goals against at 32 shots pr game.
-5
So there you have it, 50 less goals against. I think all the above is acheivable, and the only fear I have is the potential for further regression of Phillips and Neil, but tbh, if that happens they probably are out of the lineup.
So how do we do it? What contriutions do we need to reach that goal and how achievable is it?
Here's my take;
Spezza gone: This one hurts the offence, but helps on the goals against front. I still think healthy he's a net positive, but the high risk high reward/ high instance brand of hockey his lines have employed here probably add up to about 5extra goals a year when compared to what the tandem replacing his minutes will allow (Zibanejad/Legwand)
-5
Healthy Karlsson: I think a rejuvinated and healthy Karlsson will probably shave off a few goals from last years outing; he likely can't be any worse. imo, we can probably save 5 more goals against here, maybe more.
-5
Goalies bouncing back: Anderson and Lehner were up and down last year, combining for a team .909 sv%. If they can get that up to .915, there' another 16goals shaved off, if they manage their career average with ottawa of a combied .919, it's a 27 goal difference. Lets split the difference and hope for 22 goals here.
-22
Maturing young D Corps: I think with Cowen, Wiercioch, and Ceci all getting another year of experience, we can probably shave off a few rookie mistake goals; I'm hoping for 5 here.
-5
Stay out of the box: I don't much faith that we an do this one, but it could make a big difference. I'll cautiously hope for 3 less PP goals against.
-3
Shorthanded Goals against: We gave up 10 SHGA last year, the three seasons prior were 4, 7, and 1(prorates to 2 over an 82 games sched). I think we can cut last years number in half, so there's 5 goals
-5
Reduce the shots against: We gave up a ton to the tune of almost 35 a game. We should be able to realistically reduce that number to about 30 but I'll project based on 32. Though some the effect of reducing shots against is already accounted for in the above points, I think it's fair to project a few more goals against saved here as well, so a conservative 5 extra goals (trust me when I say it could be more, just using last years sv% and 30 shots per game would have saved 35 goals against and 20 goals against at 32 shots pr game.
-5
So there you have it, 50 less goals against. I think all the above is acheivable, and the only fear I have is the potential for further regression of Phillips and Neil, but tbh, if that happens they probably are out of the lineup.
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