Richardbro
Registered User
After analyzing some stats from the past decade or so, there seems to be a close correlation showing that starting goaltenders who play less games in the regular season usually win the Stanley cup. I think this has a lot to do with fatigue level. It's interesting, in the current NHL back-up goalies are relied upon a lot less than in the 90's and even throughout the history of the NHL.
A back-up goalie today averages 10-15 starts which is quite low compared to averaging 20+ starts in the past. Back-up goalies are used mostly for back-to-back game nights now and barely see any action besides that.
Look at Patrick Roy's starts in his career, he averaged around 60 starts a season while now its common for starting goalies to play 60+ games.
What are your thoughts on this? I think it has a huge effect in the play-offs, where cup winners in the last decade have more likely had goalies who didn't play 60+ games in a season (their goalies were well rested).
Look at the Stanley Cup Winning goaltenders over the last 12 years games played in the regular season:
What does this tell you? Over the last 12 years only Quick (69 games played) and Marc-Andre Fleury (62 games played in 2008-2009 season) have played over 60 games in the regular season and won a cup that year.
Every other year cup winning goaltenders played less than 60 games in the regular season.
Goalie fatigue is likely a reason teams have had little success in the playoffs.
In 2017 I predicted that the Pens would win the cup because both Matt Murray and MAF played a low amount of regular season games compared to Rinne who played over 60 games.
Last year, we saw similar results with Washington as Holtby was much more rested compared to MAF because Philipp Grubauer shared a lot of the starts with Holtby.
With these stats in mind I believe the cup winner this year will be one of:
Tampa (Andrei Vasilevskiy only 42 GP at the moment)
Boston (Raskj only 36 GP ATM)
St. Louis (Binnington only 22 GP ATM)
Pitsburgh (Murray 35 GP ATM)
Islanders because of their goalies splitting duties
Calgary because of their goalis splitting duties
A back-up goalie today averages 10-15 starts which is quite low compared to averaging 20+ starts in the past. Back-up goalies are used mostly for back-to-back game nights now and barely see any action besides that.
Look at Patrick Roy's starts in his career, he averaged around 60 starts a season while now its common for starting goalies to play 60+ games.
What are your thoughts on this? I think it has a huge effect in the play-offs, where cup winners in the last decade have more likely had goalies who didn't play 60+ games in a season (their goalies were well rested).
Look at the Stanley Cup Winning goaltenders over the last 12 years games played in the regular season:
- Holtby 53 games played in 2017-18 season
- Matt Murray 47 games played in 2016-17 season
- Matt Murray 13 Regular season games played in 2015-16 season
- Tim Thomas 57 Regular season games played in 2010-11
- Corey Crawford 57 and 30 games played regular season
- Jonathan Quick 49 and 69 games played
- Antti Niemi 39 games played in 2009-2010
- Marc-Andre Fluery 62 games played in 2008-2009
- Chris Osgoode 43 games played 2007-2008
What does this tell you? Over the last 12 years only Quick (69 games played) and Marc-Andre Fleury (62 games played in 2008-2009 season) have played over 60 games in the regular season and won a cup that year.
Every other year cup winning goaltenders played less than 60 games in the regular season.
Goalie fatigue is likely a reason teams have had little success in the playoffs.
In 2017 I predicted that the Pens would win the cup because both Matt Murray and MAF played a low amount of regular season games compared to Rinne who played over 60 games.
Last year, we saw similar results with Washington as Holtby was much more rested compared to MAF because Philipp Grubauer shared a lot of the starts with Holtby.
With these stats in mind I believe the cup winner this year will be one of:
Tampa (Andrei Vasilevskiy only 42 GP at the moment)
Boston (Raskj only 36 GP ATM)
St. Louis (Binnington only 22 GP ATM)
Pitsburgh (Murray 35 GP ATM)
Islanders because of their goalies splitting duties
Calgary because of their goalis splitting duties
