Post-Game Talk: [GM69] Canucks defeat Ducks | 2-1 | Miller & Pettersson

604

Registered User
Nov 1, 2011
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top 10 by the top10

Boston = 0
Carolina = 1
New Jersey = 2
Toronto = 4
Vegas = 0
Los Angeles = 2
NY Rangers = 2
Tampa = 2
Dallas = 1
Edmonton = 5
*Colorado = 4

Clearly teams are only built with top10 picks

Look at Cup winners and how many of their top 4s they have in key positions:

-Colorado (MacKinnon (1), Landeskog (2), Makar (4), Byram (4 acquired for Duchene (3);


-Tampa (Hedman(2), Stamkos (1), Segachev (acquired for Druin (3));

-St. Louis (Pietrangelo (4)...huge benefit getting top 5 talent in Tarasenko as a late 1st due to Russian fears - kind of an outlier;

-Washington (Ovechkin (1), Backstrom (4)...got too 5 talent, Kuznetsov as a late 1st due to Russian fears;

-Pittsburgh (Crosby (1), Malkin (2), Fleury (1));

-Chicago (Kane (1), Toews (3));

-LA (Doughty (2), Kopitar as a mid 1st due to (Canucks) people being stupid about Slovenian players in the Swedish league);

...that's the last 10 Cup winners. They all have top 4 picks filing at least one key role.

We haven't had a top 4 pick since the Sedins. They didn't bring us to the promised land but they came close.
 

Green Blank Stare

Drance approved coach
May 16, 2019
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Anaheim had only lost 2 of their last 11 before tonight.
michael%20jordan%20laughing%20gif.gif


They lost two of their last three before tonight's game and four out of six. They were 6-5 in their last 11.
 

mossey3535

Registered User
Feb 7, 2011
13,420
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Wow it's almost as if a commitment to team defence can make a guy like Delia look good.

Not sure why he repositioned on the only goal, he was in a butterfly already. Had he just stayed there he stops the shot.

Actually I do know, he missed the post with his boot break and didn't have a lean so he needlessly went for the RVH. This is what happens when you blindly apply that system.
 

Aphid Attraction

Registered User
Jan 17, 2013
5,066
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Look at Cup winners and how many of their top 4s they have in key positions:

-Colorado (MacKinnon (1), Landeskog (2), Makar (4), Byram (4 acquired for Duchene (3);


-Tampa (Hedman(2), Stamkos (1), Segachev (acquired for Druin (3));

-St. Louis (Pietrangelo (4)...huge benefit getting top 5 talent in Tarasenko as a late 1st due to Russian fears - kind of an outlier;

-Washington (Ovechkin (1), Backstrom (4)...got too 5 talent, Kuznetsov as a late 1st due to Russian fears;

-Pittsburgh (Crosby (1), Malkin (2), Fleury (1));

-Chicago (Kane (1), Toews (3));

-LA (Doughty (2), Kopitar as a mid 1st due to (Canucks) people being stupid about Slovenian players in the Swedish league);

...that's the last 10 Cup winners. They all have top 4 picks filing at least one key role.

We haven't had a top 4 pick since the Sedins. They didn't bring us to the promised land but they came close.
 

CanucksMJL

Context apologist.
Jul 6, 2009
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Look at Cup winners and how many of their top 4s they have in key positions:

-Colorado (MacKinnon (1), Landeskog (2), Makar (4), Byram (4 acquired for Duchene (3);


-Tampa (Hedman(2), Stamkos (1), Segachev (acquired for Druin (3));

-St. Louis (Pietrangelo (4)...huge benefit getting top 5 talent in Tarasenko as a late 1st due to Russian fears - kind of an outlier;

-Washington (Ovechkin (1), Backstrom (4)...got too 5 talent, Kuznetsov as a late 1st due to Russian fears;

-Pittsburgh (Crosby (1), Malkin (2), Fleury (1));

-Chicago (Kane (1), Toews (3));

-LA (Doughty (2), Kopitar as a mid 1st due to (Canucks) people being stupid about Slovenian players in the Swedish league);

...that's the last 10 Cup winners. They all have top 4 picks filing at least one key role.

We haven't had a top 4 pick since the Sedins. They didn't bring us to the promised land but they came close.
I'm not sure what you mean by "key positions" other than the players are really good.

-Colorado (MacKinnon (1), Landeskog (2), Makar (4), Byram (4 acquired for Duchene (3);

Seems to fit your recipe nicely. I will note that you seem to be drawing a link between a players draft position and their future ability to recover a similarly high pick in a trade. However Duchene wasn't traded for a 4th overall pick. He was traded for a conditional 1st to a team that believed they were on the rise. They weren't and Colorado lucked into a 4th overall.

-Tampa (Hedman(2), Stamkos (1), Segachev (acquired for Druin (3));

Hedman is critical and won a Conn Smythe. Stamkos played part of 1 game in his first Cup victory. Sergachev isn't a top 4 pick, but Drouin was. It seems like you're arguing that if playerA is traded for a playerB with superior draft pedigree playerA now has the same pedigree. It reminds me of a claim that Horvat was effectively traded for 3 1st round picks.

The case being made here is obviously super thin. Vasilevskiy, Kucherov and Point were all far more important than Stamkos or Sergachev despite their draft positions. Otherworldly drafting outside the top 4 is how Tampa built their juggernaut.

-St. Louis (Pietrangelo (4)...huge benefit getting top 5 talent in Tarasenko as a late 1st due to Russian fears - kind of an outlier;

This was a last place team that went on the mother of all runs on the back of a rookie goaltender. I can't think of a less superstar driven cup winning team. Ironically their one top 4 pick would fall out of the top 4 in a redraft with players like Erik Karlsson and Roman Josi pushing him out.

As for your assertion that a player can qualify as a top 4 pick without being a top 4 pick because of rare extenuating circumstances then you are conceding that you don't need to pick in the top 4 to get a top 4 quality player.

-Washington (Ovechkin (1), Backstrom (4)...got too 5 talent, Kuznetsov as a late 1st due to Russian fears;

Here I mostly agree. The Caps don't win a cup without one of the greatest players of all time. When people talk about premium positions they mean anything that isn't a winger. Ovi is a winger. Doesn't matter, scores goals.
Where I get confused is a now repeated assertion that you don't need to draft at the top to get top tier talent.

-Pittsburgh (Crosby (1), Malkin (2), Fleury (1));

Crosby, Malkin, Lemieux, Jagr. Yep the shoe fits.
No Crosby, no team, no cups.
No Lemieux, no team, no cups.
This franchise owes its existence to perfectly timed 1st overall draft picks and there is no way around it. They live in a world where Malkin and Jagr would go from the 2nd best player on their team to the best player in the world depending on the injury status of a teammate. Wild.


-Chicago (Kane (1), Toews (3));

Instrumental to the cup wins, both of them. Kind of similar to Washington except for the multiple Norris winning Keith that was unfortunately taken outside the top 4 and thus not qualify.

-LA (Doughty (2), Kopitar as a mid 1st due to (Canucks) people being stupid about Slovenian players in the Swedish league);

Doughty was obviously a huge piece of the cup wins.
Kopitar was obviously not a top 4 pick. This is now the 4th time you've conceded that top talent can be acquired later in the draft.

Like St Louis, they weren't superstar driven. They were deep. Forget skill and finesse, this was about frustration and attrition. It wasn't that they didn't have skill because they did. They were built to exploit and thrive under the so called "let the players decide" ruleset enforced in the playoffs.

...that's the last 10 Cup winners. They all have top 4 picks filing at least one key role.
I know nobody wants to go back one more year but I'll do it anyhow. A year remembered as fondly as a Spinal Tap. Let's look at 11.
-Boston (Seguin (2));
Maybe I missed the plot since while Seguin played no significant role in the Bruins success he was still a top 4 pick. I also omitted Horton (3) since he wasn't drafted by the Bruins. Horton's stats for that playoff suggest he was a contributor, however in a cruel twist of fate his greatest contribution was likely one he would not voluntarily repeat.
This team was built around notable non-top 4 picks like Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci and Zdeno Chara. Of particular note is 9th round draft pick Tim Thomas.

Now that that horrible exercise is over lets look at the current Canucks.

-Vancouver (Nothing at all)
Damn, this franchise is screwed. Damn. Oh man, oh Lord. Hold on a sec maybe we can shoehorn something?

Elias Pettersson (5) Uhg. On the bright side he is an easy top 4 alongside Makar, Heiskanen and Robertston in a redraft. I hope that the quality of the player can at least mitigate the power of draft position.

Quinn Hughes (7) LOL. It's practically shameful to mention him before higher entities like Virtanen and Juolevi. While he is definitively not a top 4 pick, a redraft could have him 1st overall or even 2nd. Getting to 200 assists faster than any defenseman in history is nice but the guy couldn't even get drafted ahead of Filip Zadina.

The third key position is goalie. The Canucks have Thatcher Demko. The guy wasn't even taken in the 1st round so it's more than a little bit embarrassing to even bring him up. Yet here we are. If you look at the end of last season and the beginning of this season you can see quite clearly that this was at best a 2nd round player. Hopefully the Canucks can find some rube that is interested in performance and results so that we can offload this 2nd rounder before he can truly destroy our ability to draft in the top 4.
 

604

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Nov 1, 2011
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-Vancouver (Nothing at all)
Damn, this franchise is screwed. Damn. Oh man, oh Lord. Hold on a sec maybe we can shoehorn something?

I think the point is that teams that win Cups get key players in the draft. And often franchise players in the top 4.

As a result, most teams that win have down years to get these players.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
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St. Louis (Pietrangelo (4)...

This was a last place team that went on the mother of all runs on the back of a rookie goaltender. I can't think of a less superstar driven cup winning team. Ironically their one top 4 pick would fall out of the top 4 in a redraft with players like Erik Karlsson and Roman Josi pushing him out.

it’s a stretch but i think the one way of looking at the blues as having been helped by multiple high picks is (1) pietro, and (2) the first rounder they traded along with the grab bag that includrd tage thompson was at one time a likely top three pick, as that team was in last place midyear, before berube took them on that bonkers run. that said, the trade was in the offseason and i don’t think anyone—buffalo or st louis—would have expected them to be that bad that year before they got so unexpectedly good.
 

Hit the post

I have your gold medal Zippy!
Oct 1, 2015
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Hiding under WTG's bed...
it’s a stretch but i think the one way of looking at the blues as having been helped by multiple high picks is (1) pietro, and (2) the first rounder they traded along with the grab bag that includrd tage thompson was at one time a likely top three pick, as that team was in last place midyear, before berube took them on that bonkers run. that said, the trade was in the offseason and i don’t think anyone—buffalo or st louis—would have expected them to be that bad that year before they got so unexpectedly good.
I always thought before they won, the Blues generally always had a solid & deep blueline corp. Where they were let down in the post-season was their forwards failed to score. Even a guy like Jay Bowmeester (sp?), whatever his faults, could eat TONS of minutes.
 
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vadim sharifijanov

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Oct 10, 2007
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I always thought before they won, the Blues generally always had a solid & deep blueline corp. Where they were let down in the post-season was their forwards failed to score. Even a guy like Jay Bowmeester (sp?), whatever his faults, could eat TONS of minutes.

yeah, i think that was a very good team, missing a top workhorse goalie and crunch time scoring up front. they were generally a playoff team in the years up to the ROR trade, missing by one single pt the year leading up to that offseason.

so my memory is when that trade happened, it was thought that adding ROR would push them back into contender status. then midyear when they were last overall everyone was like, LOL you gave away the first overall pick. then the reverse when they won the cup and it was, LOLJ JK it’s #31.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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more evidence late season performance is meaningless

anaheim's roster is absolutely terrible. no one should be fooled into thinking that's a quality team

Teams have runs at all points of the season and it’s weird that people think late season hockey is so different.

Is early-season performance meaningless because a terrible Montreal team started shockingly well?
 
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andora

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Apr 23, 2002
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This ‘top-4 pick’ stuff is pretty specious reasoning when you consider that Hughes and Pettersson are both the quality of lottery-winning picks and would be #2 overall picks in a re-draft of their year.
Yeah but they are old now
 

credulous

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Nov 18, 2021
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Teams have runs at all points of the season and it’s weird that people think late season hockey is so different.

Is early-season performance meaningless because a terrible Montreal team started shockingly well?

yes? beware drawing any conclusions from small sample sizes

in general though i pretty heavily discount late season performance in general. playoff teams are usually locked into their finishing spot by now and coaches are resting players or tinkering with their lineups in preparation for the playoffs/next season

i'm not saying vancouver's recent performance is meaningless. nor am i saying anaheim's recent performance is meaningless. i just think you have to be more skeptical than you would in like november
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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yes? beware drawing any conclusions from small sample sizes

in general though i pretty heavily discount late season performance in general. playoff teams are usually locked into their finishing spot by now and coaches are resting players or tinkering with their lineups in preparation for the playoffs/next season

i'm not saying vancouver's recent performance is meaningless. nor am i saying anaheim's recent performance is meaningless. i just think you have to be more skeptical than you would in like november

I don't think anything is significantly different. Some teams are going through the motions, other teams are absolutely flying either in preparation for the playoffs or competing for playoff spots. That LA team we faced 2 games ago played one of the best games I've seen any opposition team play all season. Likewise, in October you have teams that are absolutely stumbling out of the blocks and playing like total garbage.

Teams go on runs at any point in a season, players go on runs at any point in a season. Fans just get this huge confirmation bias thing happening when any player or team happens to play well in March. People remember that time that Brandon Sutter scored 10 points in the last 10 games or whatever and ignore the times when we had terrible teams that had good records in November and the owner was gloating on the radio before crashing to 28th place.
 

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