Speculation: Giroux vs Uptempo system

[Appleyard]

I have seen several posts in the last few days insinuating that Giroux is not the point scoring machine we think he his... and that due to Lavi's 'up tempo' offence his points numbers are inflated a lot due to it... with the suggestion he would be a 70 point player or less over the last three years if he played in a standard system.

I know many people think that Giroux would be an elite forward no matter what system he played in... and I was inclined to agree on face value, having watched Claude play, and a lot of other hockey players over the same period, it seemed obvious to me he is a top 10 forward in the league. So I thought I would try and check if my assumption was true.

I was going to just post the results I got from looking into it... but I figured some people may want to see just how it was worked out... so I put in every step I did (even though some are just going through the motions and have little overall impact apart from confirmation the maths is right.)

It is pretty long... I have potentially got a new job, (not 100% but close) and some other time consuming commitments coming up... that should be pretty demanding, so I will not be able to do much of this kind of stuff probably, so I thought I would do one last in depth one!

It is in the attachments, hopefully that works! If not I will redo it as a pdf or sumat.

Results:

Giroux points:

Flyers system: 86 points
Standard system: 81 points
Defensive system: 76 points

So if the Flyers played a standard NHL offence Giroux would be a PPG player, that would still be top 10 in the NHL, and in 11-12 would have got ~94 points, 3rd in NHL PPG instead of 2nd.

So if the Flyers played a defensive NHL offence Giroux would get ~76 points, top 15 in the NHL, and in 11-12 would have got ~89 points, still 3rd in the NHL.

Also, all the players above him would suffer almost exactly proportionally the same if they were transposed into a less offensive system. As all off them are in pretty high scoring offences as well. Although all the top 7 scorers over the last 3 years play with one of the other top 7, apart from Giroux.

Note: This is not to 'get one over' on people who said that or thought that at all... I genuinely was interested, and as shown, he may lose ten points in a defensive system. Once I got thinking about it, and how a system being pulled back would affect him, I thought 'well, why don't I try and find out!.'

And I know, it is not perfect, but nothing like this really can be.

Click to read more...

 

[Beef Invictus]

Geez, good work. I don't know how you routinely pump these things out.

 

[FlyersFan61290]

Nice work.

I said that I thought G was a ppg player which this pretty much supports.

 

[SchennSational1022*]

If you watch the guy consistently and think he is a product of the system, and cant see his ridiculous vision and playmaking skills, board work etc., go watch a new sport because you don't know much about this one.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Geez, good work. I don't know how you routinely pump these things out.

Seconded. Awesome research.

 

[flyershockey]

I have seen several posts in the last few days insinuating that Giroux is not the point scoring machine we think he his... and that due to Lavi's 'up tempo' offence his points numbers are inflated a lot due to it... with the suggestion he would be a 70 point player or less over the last three years if he played in a standard system.

I know many people think that Giroux would be an elite forward no matter what system he played in... and I was inclined to agree on face value, having watched Claude play, and a lot of other hockey players over the same period, it seemed obvious to me he is a top 10 forward in the league. So I thought I would try and check if my assumption was true.

I was going to just post the results I got from looking into it... but I figured some people may want to see just how it was worked out... so I put in every step I did (even though some are just going through the motions and have little overall impact apart from confirmation the maths is right.)

It is pretty long... I have potentially got a new job, (not 100% but close) and some other time consuming commitments coming up... that should be pretty demanding, so I will not be able to do much of this kind of stuff probably, so I thought I would do one last in depth one!

It is in the attachments, hopefully that works! If not I will redo it as a pdf or sumat.

Results:

Giroux points:

Flyers system: 86 points
Standard system: 81 points
Defensive system: 76 points

So if the Flyers played a standard NHL offence Giroux would be a PPG player, that would still be top 10 in the NHL, and in 11-12 would have got ~94 points, 3rd in NHL PPG instead of 2nd.

So if the Flyers played a defensive NHL offence Giroux would get ~76 points, top 15 in the NHL, and in 11-12 would have got ~89 points, still 3rd in the NHL.

Also, all the players above him would suffer almost exactly proportionally the same if they were transposed into a less offensive system. As all off them are in pretty high scoring offences as well. Although all the top 7 scorers over the last 3 years play with one of the other top 7, apart from Giroux.

Note: This is not to 'get one over' on people who said that or thought that at all... I genuinely was interested, and as shown, he may lose ten points in a defensive system. Once I got thinking about it, and how a system being pulled back would affect him, I thought 'well, why don't I try and find out!.'

And I know, it is not perfect, but nothing like this really can be.

Very nicely done AY. I actually think Giroux would benefit from moving away from a transition system. He's a guy who loves to slow the game down and pick you apart with his vision. Playing a more organized game where guys have set lanes may actually benefit Giroux's skill set.

 

[Psuhockey]

I think having a different RW would also help Giroux. Voracek and him play a similar game. Lecavalier might be that guy and then they can put Voracek with B.Schenn as those two had a bit of chemistry last year before Lavy changed up the lines.

 

[PK16]

If you watch the guy consistently and think he is a product of the system, and cant see his ridiculous vision and playmaking skills, board work etc., go watch a new sport because you don't know much about this one.

Exactly this. Couldn't have said it better.

 

[Protest]

It is pretty long... I have potentially got a new job, (not 100% but close) and some other time consuming commitments coming up... that should be pretty demanding, so I will not be able to do much of this kind of stuff probably, so I thought I would do one last in depth one!

Boooooooo

Thanks for this. I was looking at something you had posted the other day, and was thinking of PM'ing you to see if we could find something to work on. I didn't have anything specifically in mind, I just love this type of stuff, but don't always have the time to work on it.