Girgensons an all situations number #1 center? I'm starting to think its possible

[joshjull]

I'm not sure if he could be a #1 on a contender or not yet. But what he is doing this year is incredible and tells us its not that far fetched of an idea.


For comparison's sake lets look at Girgs -vs- MacKinnon so far this season. Yes I know Girgs is a year older and drafted a year before. But I figure jumping the amount of leagues Girgs has in such a short period of time (USHL to NHL) and Mackinnon being a #1 overall pick, that it was fair to compare them even with the one year difference. Plus they are both entering their 2nd year in the league and their first year as a center.


ES goals/60min
Girgs ------> 1.44
MacKinnon -> 0.69

ES Pts/60min
Girgs -------> 2.45
MacKinnon -> 2.25

ES Goal for/60mins
Girgs -------> 2.88
MacKinnon -> 2.25

ES Goals against/60min
Girgs -------> 2.16
MacKinnon -> 3.29

Corsi Relative QoC
Girgs -------> 1.346
MacKinnon -> 1.069

Corsi Relative QoT
Girgs -------> -0.329
MacKinnon -> 3.454

O-Zone starts
Girgs -------> 39.2%
MacKinnon -> 50%

Top 3 line mates at ES
Girgs -------> Moulson 54.3%, Ennis 42.2% and Gionta 34.2%.
MacKinnon -> Landeskog 61.1%, Iginla 46.3% and ROR 21.2%.



Girgs has out produced MacKinnon individually at ES with better goal scoring and point rates. The Sabres have also produced more offense with Girgs on the ice than Colorado has when MacKinnon was on the ice. The Sabres allowed fewer goal when Girgs is on the ice than Colorado has with MacKinnon on the ice. And all of that was done with Girgs playing in a much tougher defensive role getting a ridiculously low amount of O-zone starts. He was also playing with linemates who were inferior to Mackinnon's in both offensive and defensive capabilities. Girgs also has no secondary scoring line to take the heat off either.

Special teams wise Girgs is one of our top PKers and Mackinnon doesn't PK at all. Where MacKinnon has been more productive and the better player is on the PP. Girgs has just started getting PP ice time and our PP is god awful. So its certainly something he could get better at.

Right now Girgs is a one man gang for this team. He centers a line that is our #1 offensive and defensive line. Its really the only line any team needs to remotely worry about. yet even with that and his defensive role (with really non defensive line mates) he still keeps chugging along.

My point is not to say Girgs is better than MacKinnon or to say anything negative about MacKinnon. Its to point to the incredible level of play Girgs has brought to the table this year. I thought showing how he has done so far -vs- a #1 overall pick thats viewed by many as a sure fire #1 center would give some perspective. I really think some posters don't quite realize how amazing he is playing. What he is doing is definitely tracking towards a possible all situations #1. Could you imagine what he could do with better linemates?

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[Jame]

i like where you're going, but can we have a wider scope of comparison, so it doesn't just look like a favorable 1:1 ?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

This is not the best comparison, considering that everyone agrees that Mac is in a "softmore slump," and not playing up to his potential. He hasn't been good at all, yet I think we all agree he'll be a star at some point. So I agree with your main point but I don't think your data comparison really shows us much.

 

[phosphene*]

Those stats are quite telling, although Mac is going through a sophomore slump. It's funny how a lot players who do surprisingly well in their first season take a step backwards (see: Myers) and the players who put up modest numbers typically show progress.

Girgensons is as good as it gets when it comes to a player who isn't truly elite. He'll be something like a Backes/Richards hybrid. What a ****in' pick by Darcy. Thank god Dallas took Faksa.

 

[Husko]

I think he could definitely be like what Drury was for us 05-07. Shut down other teams top lines, but up big points, generally dominate play. I'm not expecting him to ever consistently put up PPG seasons, but if he could be a consistent 50 point guy that explodes for a season or two when all the stars align, in addition to everything else he does, well that'd just be gravy.

 

[haseoke39]

Girgensons is putting up a hell of a year and you've done some great research comparing him and MacKinnon. I tend to think MacKinnon is underperforming and has a much higher offensive ceiling with a set of wheels that almost no one in the NHL can match. But this season has convinced me that girgensons can be bergeron down the line. That's a high ceiling and not what I expect, but it's certainly possible.

Combine a bergeron with the best defenseman of his generation and a vezina goalie playing the hottest of his career, and you have a cup winner. I'll never argue that there's only one way to win a cup, but I'm fair minded about the macro picture.

 

[stokes84]

Not sure he has the offense yet. His shooting % is through the roof.

 

[CarlWinslow]

Patrice Bergeron type?

 

[joshjull]

i like where you're going, but can we have a wider scope of comparison, so it doesn't just look like a favorable 1:1 ?

Of course. Just felt this was an interesting comparison and jumping off point.

I wish I could find the tweet talking about Girgs in relation to the top 100 scorers. Can't remember if it was ES of not. But it was about him playing against the toughtest QoC with the lowest QoT and he was 45th in points. That's roughly what it said. Wish I could find the damn thing.

 

[RobertR]

I wanna see how Girgs looks on a good team, on the team who`s main goal is to score.

I mean now, where the main goal, obviously, is to protect the own net, Zemgus is looking good, and he still earns a fairly good amount of points.

But what happens when we add top end talent offensively to this team, and suddenly you need to create some offense besides dump and chase.

I think we will see something close to that the next year. When we will draft top5, Sammy will join the show. Zemgus will still most likely be the 1st C at the start of the year, even if we draft McEichel.

But again, he played with Johnny Hockey, so playing with McEichel and Sam, will be nothing new to him.

 

[Myllz]

Originally I didn't think he would have the offensive game to be an all-around #1 center, but he's certainly proving otherwise so far this season. His progression has been crazy good.

 

[Moskau]

Yeah Mac isn't a great comparison. He will run laps around Zemgus offensively the same way Zemgus will be twice the defensive player.

There's a few guys that in a few years will be good gauges for Z mainly Laughton, Horvat, Lazar.

 

[joshjull]

This is not the best comparison, considering that everyone agrees that Mac is in a "softmore slump," and not playing up to his potential. He hasn't been good at all, yet I think we all agree he'll be a star at some point. So I agree with your main point but I don't think your data comparison really shows us much.

He's having an adjustment period from wing to center.. I'm sort of surprised that posters don't get how hard it is to transition from wing to center in this league, particularly for a young center. Anyone that understand the difference shouldn't be remotely shocked at what Mac is going through. I'm not.

For it to be a sophomore slump in my mind he would have to be playing the same exact role he did last year and not be able to produce like last year. But that's not the case.

I pointed out that both Girgs and Mac are in their first seasons as centers. So it's not like Girgs didn't have to transition as well.

 

[Moskau]

Originally I didn't think he would have the offensive game to be an all-around #1 center, but he's certainly proving otherwise so far this season. His progression has been crazy good.

I've always thought he could be a guy who slides.

50 pt player on the 3rd line that elevates his linemates? No problem. 70 pt player on the top line playing shotgun to a better talent? No problem.

I didn't think it would happen this soon though.

 

[Jim Bob]

It would be interesting to see guys like Galchenyuk, Strome, Scheifele, Zibanejad, and RNH thrown in the stats compare, too.

 

[Woodhouse]

Of course. Just felt this was an interesting comparison and jumping off point.

I wish I could find the tweet talking about Girgs in relation to the top 100 scorers. Can't remember if it was ES of not. But it was about him playing against the toughtest QoC with the lowest QoT and he was 45th in points. That's roughly what it said. Wish I could find the damn thing.

Derek Jedamski ‏@D_Jedamski Dec 3
Girgensons is 48th in the league in ES pts/60. Of top 100 in ES scoring, he has lowest Off ZS%, 5th highest QOC, and lowest QOT.

 

[JLewyB]

I think he's the best player from that draft. He's a matchup nightmare because he's either stronger, faster or both.

 

[Zip15]

Bergeron is obviously the scenario you hope for. We'll see if he gets there.

 

[Zip15]

I think he's the best player from that draft. He's a matchup nightmare because he's either stronger, faster or both.

You'd probably get arguments from Ducks (Lindholm), Jets (Trouba), Preds (Forsberg), Pens (Maatta), and Sharks (Hertl) fans, but he was a great pick. He'll end up top-5 or -10 in that class.

 

[Moskau]

You'd probably get arguments from Ducks (Lindholm), Jets (Trouba), Preds (Forsberg), Pens (Maatta), and Sharks (Hertl) fans, but he was a great pick. He'll end up top-5 or -10 in that class.

Still not sold on Forberg and as much as I like Hertl his position doesn't make him as valuable as the other guys.

How does Girgensons match up to a guy like Landeskog after he was drafted?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

He's having an adjustment period from wing to center.. I'm sort of surprised that posters don't get how hard it is to transition from wing to center in this league, particularly for a young center. Anyone that understand the difference shouldn't be remotely shocked at what Mac is going through. I'm not.

For it to be a sophomore slump in my mind he would have to be playing the same exact role he did last year and not be able to produce like last year. But that's not the case.

I pointed out that both Girgs and Mac are in their first seasons as centers. So it's not like Girgs didn't have to transition as well.

I agree with all this, but it just shows that Girgs is adjusting better to the center position than Mac. Some people adjust to it quicker than others, but that doesn't tell you a ton about where they end up. It doesn't go far in proving your original point, that he could be a legit #1 center, offensively. In our guts I think we're all starting to think that he is, and this data certainly doesn't disprove that, but I think we're going to need a lot more games before we can start using anything but our eyes.

 

[Jame]

i'll add, while Girgensons can turn into that Bergeron-esque shutdown #1 center.... I also think all of his best traits would translate fine to the wing... IF... one of our other guys (Reinhart, Grigo, 2015 1st) were to develop into a #1 as well. Similar to Oreilly being effective where ever he plays.

I'm not saying he has to be moved one way or the other... but the fact that his game naturally translates, is a valuable commodity.

 

[Paxon]

He can be one of two all/most-situation centers, with one being Reinhart or Grigorenko as opposed to a McDavid or Eichel. It's just a question of what else there is and how it all comes together. One thing for certain is that someone on the wing is going to have to be a dynamic-skating offense creator if that's our group. I don't think the equation has changed in this respect from how it looked going into the season.

 

[Zman5778]

One thing for certain is that someone on the wing is going to have to be a dynamic-skating offense creator if that's our group.

Barzal? Marner?

As for Girgensons -- I was dubious about his offensive ceiling. But now I think a Bergeron/Drury type is within reach.....

 

[Cirris]

Girgensons doesn't seem like he'll be a prolific scoring center. But he does look like he'll be a top notch 2-way 2nd or 3rd line center. He can put in 20-25 goals a season 50-60 points. But also be the guy you throw out there against the other team's top line or kill penalties.