Speculation: General Expansion Draft Discussion | Part II

[DrunkUncleDenis]

New thread.

Old one here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2182961

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Wouldn't this whole expansion thing be a lot more fun without the old boys network in GM offices running things?

Like instead of George McPhee saying he's going to work with all 30 teams, he just went ahead and picked whoever the eff he felt like taking from the exposed lists? If you're Bill Foley, wouldn't you think your $500 million gets you the best ****** expansion team possible, instead of what the rest of the league wants you to take?

I don't think McPhee is going to do anybody any favours. Teams that want to protect roster players for 2017-18 will probably have to pay in 1st rd. picks and top prospects. McPhee can't ice 30 players this season anyway.

By the way, does Las Vegas have an AHL affiliate already?

I think you're misunderstanding the gamesmanship McPhee is doing when he said he'd talk with every GM before taking a guy.

He's talking about holding teams ransom and negotiating an exorbitant price. Like, borderline extortion. He's not "playing nice", he's trying to turn $10 into $20 by seeing if a team will offer up more value in order to not take a player.



Yep, the Chicago Wolves.

Thats not a surprise. Methot tended to be out with EK when the competition was stronger as they needed a good defensive player, and Claesson hot some starts with EK when they were facing less tough competition. In fact Claesson was our most protected skater in the playoffs (perhaps one reason why he looked so good).

If you want to use advanced stats, Claesson had a terrible playoffs. When you get over 2/3rds offensive zone starts and geta corsi of 46%, thats not good. He was only marginally better than Ceci who had almost half the offensive zone start percentage.

Methot had 45% D zone starts, Karlsson 55%, Claesson 67%. So you can well guess the deployment with Karlsson between these two.



Putting Claesson on with Karlsson in Methots minutes would require EK to significantly dial back what he does on offense to make up for the loss on defense. So at the moment this is not a situation I'd want gonig forward.

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[Micklebot]

I think I'd rather wait till the dust settles and see if there's any options available to fill the hole created by the Expansion draft.

At some point, LV is going to have to waive players it has drafted in the Expansion draft, maybe we can land a player there (probably not directly as other teams are ahead on the priority, but at a discount as LV either loses them to Colorado for nothing, or accepts a pick).

LV will have 30+ players, most of which will be waiver eligible (all?), they can hold on to 23 of them I think, so there will be movement leading into the season, the market will be flooded and prices should fall. I think right now is the worst time to try and deal with the devil, as fear is boosting the prices.

 

[bert]

I think I'd rather wait till the dust settles and see if there's any options available to fill the hole created by the Expansion draft.

At some point, LV is going to have to waive players it has drafted in the Expansion draft, maybe we can land a player there (probably not directly as other teams are ahead on the priority, but at a discount as LV either loses them to Colorado for nothing, or accepts a pick).

LV will have 30+ players, most of which will be waiver eligible (all?), they can hold on to 23 of them I think, so there will be movement leading into the season, the market will be flooded and prices should fall. I think right now is the worst time to try and deal with the devil, as fear is boosting the prices.

This is a good point, but I think they are prepared for it. IE they will be flipping players for prospects that are AHL eligible and while taking back some picks. Or they will have side deals to pick a player that is eligible.

At this point Id offer our first to not take Methot, Claesson and Ryan. I know that management wont include Ryan in that list because of uncle Eugene but thats what I would like them to do.

 

[Denny47]

I know we're not exactly a bonafide contender yet, but Erik Karlsson is 27 years old and in the prime of his career. In my opinion, I think you pay the price to keep Methot and keep your top 4 (top 2 for that matter) in tact.

I'm all for planning for the future, but there is a time and place to sell some of your future and give yourself the best chance to win now and that time and place is when you have a once in a generation type player like Erik Karlsson.

Rolling over and giving away Marc Methot for free because you're thinking about a guy who won't play in NHL anytime soon sends the wrong message to your star player, captain of 27 years old in the heart of his prime. Just my opinion.

 

[aragorn]

McPhee is obviously going to look at this situation long term & not necessarily ice the best team he can this yr. I would imagine that he is going to get as many picks & maybe prospects as he can stock over the next two or three drafts & be a force in about 5 yrs. Look at this yr's draft & think how many potentially good players LV could get just from this one draft, if a number of teams decide to give them their #1 or #2 picks. Someone mentioned that LV could have every pick in the second rd this yr.

On another note, rather than give up a first to LV to not take Methot I would rather see PD give LV a 1st, if they select James Neal & trade him to Ottawa.

It might be something else they try, if a team doesn't give them what they want for such & such a player, maybe another team gives them what they want instead for that same player. He has said he is willing to negotiate with teams but I imagine that only means if he gets what he wants in return for not drafting their player. Otherwise a draft & trade scenario could also work in their favour. Why not?

 

[BonkTastic]

I'll say this about Mrazek... he may be wildly inconsistent, but if he's available and the price is right, he'd be a good buy-low candidate to be a premiere back up Andy and maybe hope he can work out his consistency issues enough that he could slide in as the starter in a year or two.

The talent is there, he just needs to work on the mental part of the game. The number of backbreaking goals he let in this year when the Red Wings had the lead was embarrassing, he needs to fix that if he ever wants to become a long-term starter in this league.

So yeah. I don't want to pay full value, but if we can get him for like 70 cents to the dolar, I'm intrigued.

 

[BonkTastic]

 

[Viletho]

I know we're not exactly a bonafide contender yet, but Erik Karlsson is 27 years old and in the prime of his career. In my opinion, I think you pay the price to keep Methot and keep your top 4 (top 2 for that matter) in tact.

I'm all for planning for the future, but there is a time and place to sell some of your future and give yourself the best chance to win now and that time and place is when you have a once in a generation type player like Erik Karlsson.

Rolling over and giving away Marc Methot for free because you're thinking about a guy who won't play in NHL anytime soon sends the wrong message to your star player, captain of 27 years old in the heart of his prime. Just my opinion.

That evaluation is accurate, but i think it is more difficult than that.

Methot is better than Ceci-Claesson right now, and better on defence than Phaneuf, but Phaneuf bring offensive to his game.

But for the situation we are in, let's say it is Claesson or Methot they choose.

Is Claesson + 1st Worth Methot, would you make the trade ? If the answer is yes, you do it. I think

is Claesson + 2nd or 3rd Worth Methot? Yes? you do it.

The thing is that, If you give the extra 1st, let's say, then you have Methot for how many year? He still has 2 years on his contract and might not stay? Even if i think he would even with a diminishing role.

The problem I see, let's say we keep Claesson and he is able to bring his play up, enough to play on a second pairing next year, than you have Claesson for maybe another 6-7 years possibly.

So it is Claesson 6-7 years + Draft pick who could play for us for 7-8+ years vs Methot possibly 2-3 years.

So the exercice is a very complicate one for the GM. You have to make to right choice, and there is a lot of possibility of going wrong.

If Methot is taken

I go Phaneuf-Karlsson
Chabot/Claesson-Ceci
Chabot/Claesson-XXX

XXX = Wideman,Harpur,Boro,Jaros,Englund

 

[Caeldan]

Trade Dzingel and take Wideman for Mrazek? Toss in a fourth and someone like Sieloff?

 

[BonkTastic]

Trade Dzingel and take Wideman for Mrazek? Toss in a fourth and someone like Sieloff?

I'd do that.

Doubt Vegas does, but that's an easy yes for me.

 

[aragorn]

I'll say this about Mrazek... he may be wildly inconsistent, but if he's available and the price is right, he'd be a good buy-low candidate to be a premiere back up Andy and maybe hope he can work out his consistency issues enough that he could slide in as the starter in a year or two.

The talent is there, he just needs to work on the mental part of the game. The number of backbreaking goals he let in this year when the Red Wings had the lead was embarrassing, he needs to fix that if he ever wants to become a long-term starter in this league.

So yeah. I don't want to pay full value, but if we can get him for like 70 cents to the dolar, I'm intrigued.

There is a trend in the NHL at this time to use bigger goalies who take up much more of the net than athletic smaller goalies which has that against Mrazek. With all the goalies available to LV it's likely Condon does not get picked & I would think Ottawa would have some loyalty to Condon to re-sign him. Mrazek makes $4 mil for this yr which I would think Ottawa would not be interested in paying $8.2 mil for two goalies even for one yr. Better to wait until he is a UFA after next yr.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I know we're not exactly a bonafide contender yet, but Erik Karlsson is 27 years old and in the prime of his career. In my opinion, I think you pay the price to keep Methot and keep your top 4 (top 2 for that matter) in tact.

I'm all for planning for the future, but there is a time and place to sell some of your future and give yourself the best chance to win now and that time and place is when you have a once in a generation type player like Erik Karlsson.

Rolling over and giving away Marc Methot for free because you're thinking about a guy who won't play in NHL anytime soon sends the wrong message to your star player, captain of 27 years old in the heart of his prime. Just my opinion.

This team turned the corner (perhaps peaked?) at the worst possible time. We built up just in time to gift Vegas a good player. The NHL landscape is going to change dramatically over the next 2-3 years. Young teams like Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton and mid-age teams like Tampa are set to take advantage, while the old guard of LA, Chicago, SJ, etc, are set to rebuild/retool/cycle down.

Our time to win was this past season. It only gets harder from here on out.

 

[operasen]

I think I'd rather wait till the dust settles and see if there's any options available to fill the hole created by the Expansion draft.

At some point, LV is going to have to waive players it has drafted in the Expansion draft, maybe we can land a player there (probably not directly as other teams are ahead on the priority, but at a discount as LV either loses them to Colorado for nothing, or accepts a pick).

LV will have 30+ players, most of which will be waiver eligible (all?), they can hold on to 23 of them I think, so there will be movement leading into the season, the market will be flooded and prices should fall. I think right now is the worst time to try and deal with the devil, as fear is boosting the prices.

This is solid. We can only lose one player and have option. We can trade to get him back; we can give something for VGK to take someone else (losing at least two); we can trade to replace him, or we can lose just one and move on.

There is a good chance for Dorion to upgrade the forward position with guys like Neal, Marchessault and others or replace Methot with a younger Dumba, Vatanen or similar.

This will play out and its good for Dorian to stay in the discussion but keep his hand to himself until a move can be finalized. Moving Dzingel, Wideman, Ryan, 1st et al for the right return could be a real bonus.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

McPhee said they'd contact every team and give them an idea of what they were thinking and provide an opportunity to do a deal to keep a player over another.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm afraid we are going to end up with Clarkson

 

[Flamingo]

This team turned the corner (perhaps peaked?) at the worst possible time. We built up just in time to gift Vegas a good player. The NHL landscape is going to change dramatically over the next 2-3 years. Young teams like Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton and mid-age teams like Tampa are set to take advantage, while the old guard of LA, Chicago, SJ, etc, are set to rebuild/retool/cycle down.

Our time to win was this past season. It only gets harder from here on out.

There will be another expansion draft in 2-3 years, right when Toronto, Buffalo, and Edmonton will have lots of star players off their ELCs.

 

[operasen]

There will be another expansion draft in 2-3 years, right when Toronto, Buffalo, and Edmonton will have lots of star players off their ELCs.

Seattle - and someone moves to Quebec City, possibly triggering re-alignment.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

There will be another expansion draft in 2-3 years, right when Toronto, Buffalo, and Edmonton will have lots of star players off their ELCs.

I'm still hoping for Seattle. The unbalanced conferences triggers the hell out of me. Of course, by then the expansion rules might be different.....you know damned well the big money teams and favorite owners who will have a lot of young talent will be leaning on Bettman big-time to keep their kids. Also, if it is Seattle or Quebec, those are already hockey markets...you can argue the fans will show even for mediocre teams and you don't need to build a fanbase from scratch.

Seattle - and someone moves to Quebec City, possibly triggering re-alignment.

Quebec City and Winnipeg (along with Ottawa) are pretty small markets business-wise. In the long term, I'm not sure if any of the three can survive under the current CBA. Especially if the Canadian dollar stays low long-term. QC would be the smallest market in Canada (replacing Ottawa, yay!) but would give us another insufferable fanbase to deal with (which sucks because I really liked the Nordiques, back in the day).

 

[Denny47]

That evaluation is accurate, but i think it is more difficult than that.

Methot is better than Ceci-Claesson right now, and better on defence than Phaneuf, but Phaneuf bring offensive to his game.

But for the situation we are in, let's say it is Claesson or Methot they choose.

Is Claesson + 1st Worth Methot, would you make the trade ? If the answer is yes, you do it. I think

is Claesson + 2nd or 3rd Worth Methot? Yes? you do it.

The thing is that, If you give the extra 1st, let's say, then you have Methot for how many year? He still has 2 years on his contract and might not stay? Even if i think he would even with a diminishing role.

The problem I see, let's say we keep Claesson and he is able to bring his play up, enough to play on a second pairing next year, than you have Claesson for maybe another 6-7 years possibly.

So it is Claesson 6-7 years + Draft pick who could play for us for 7-8+ years vs Methot possibly 2-3 years.

So the exercice is a very complicate one for the GM. You have to make to right choice, and there is a lot of possibility of going wrong.

If Methot is taken

I go Phaneuf-Karlsson
Chabot/Claesson-Ceci
Chabot/Claesson-XXX

XXX = Wideman,Harpur,Boro,Jaros,Englund

I get that take for sure, and I'm dreading losing Freddy as well (which is why I had hoped we'd dangle Dz). I didn't intend this as a Methot vs Freddy take. What I'm saying is I think people are overvaluing draft picks a little bit. I know the future is important but when you have a guy like EK, the future should not be a priority.

If I'm PD, I'm making side deals to keep Methot AND Claesson. If it costs a few assets to make them take Wides, that's a no-brainer to me. Just seems like so many people were sick of Bryan Murray sitting on his hands and not doing anything in the offseason but these same people are worried about 3-5 years from now when Erik Karlsson is in his 30s.

 

[BondraTime]

If Mrazek isn't too expensive, he should be an obvious candidate for us. Would fit the role of "young backup, possible future starter" very well. It's been 7 years since his draft, about the time iit usually takes a drafted and developed guy to establish himself.

I'm definitely one of the few who aren't "too" mad if we were to lose Methot. I'm confident enough in being able to get a top 4 guy in the off-season to substitute with Karlsson, and am of the 100% belief that Chabot will be a top 4 calibre D for us by X-mas.

It obviously isn't something we want to happen in any other year.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The Wild will likely make a deal to keep Dumba and Scandella
It will be expensive to keep both

The Ducks will likely make a deal to keep Manson and Vatenen
ditto here it will cost them to keep these guys

The Jackets will likely make a deal to keep Johnson
I see the value here similar to Methot's if the Sens deal to keep him

 

[Viletho]

I get that take for sure, and I'm dreading losing Freddy as well (which is why I had hoped we'd dangle Dz). I didn't intend this as a Methot vs Freddy take. What I'm saying is I think people are overvaluing draft picks a little bit. I know the future is important but when you have a guy like EK, the future should not be a priority.

If I'm PD, I'm making side deals to keep Methot AND Claesson. If it costs a few assets to make them take Wides, that's a no-brainer to me. Just seems like so many people were sick of Bryan Murray sitting on his hands and not doing anything in the offseason but these same people are worried about 3-5 years from now when Erik Karlsson is in his 30s.

That's a very difficult exercice as I said. So many possibility, but i agree with what you say, but i also see the other possibility just like I think you do.

Your decision would be to give what it takes to keep Methot and I respect that. Myself, i can't come to a decision. I think Methot could be replace, but probably not fully this year. Unless Chabot blow us and his able to play with Ceci on the second pairing.

That's why I suggest Phaneuf-Karlsson. Phaneuf would replace Methot than finding someone to play with Ceci would be easier if you find a way to manage Ice time better than last season.

 

[Laoghaire]

The Wild will likely make a deal to keep Dumba and Scandella
It will be expensive to keep both

The Ducks will likely make a deal to keep Manson and Vatenen
ditto here it will cost them to keep these guys

The Jackets will likely make a deal to keep Johnson
I see the value here similar to Methot's if the Sens deal to keep him

Even with those deals in place the depth of available defenders is way bigger than for forwards. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan picked. He would be an extremely valuable asset with some money retained should Vegas choose to deal him after a season or two. He's also American and marketable.

 

[Micklebot]

If/when Methot gets claimed, it leaves us re-jigging our D.

I think it could work out though, particularly if we go with a more defenisive tandem as our bottom pair;

Phaneuf-Karlsson --> similar to Kuba-Karlsson of old.
Chabot-Ceci --> I think they compliment one another's skill sets nicely
Claesson-Harpur --> I think these two played really well in the playoffs, and could handle much tougher assignments than we gave Boro-Wideman. Would mean no more crazy tough deployment for the 2nd pair.

Jaros is a wild card, who could come in place of Harpur. We could also see Claesson-Karlsson until Chabot is a little more comfortable at this level.

Add to that, there's an extra ~4 mil in the budget with Methot gone. Makes room to upgrade elsewhere.

 

[Caeldan]

I don't see how so many firsts would be tossed around in these deals to not pick, to be honest.

Most of the names wouldn't draw a first on their own, let alone a first plus the player taken in lieu.

So is Methot worth a first plus? I doubt it. If he was actually traded, it'd be a 'hockey trade' likely to begin with but if in terms of picks you're probably looking at a second or third and some level of promising but not surefire prospect.

Same goes for most teams, at most I can see maybe using a first as enticement to take a bad contract. I don't see that many guys exposed who would pull a first+bonafide hockey player in a trade