GDT: Game 6: Seattle Kraken (1-2-2) @ Colorado Avalanche (2-1-1) - 6:00 PM PDT; ROOT NW

[Fistfullofbeer]

I've got one question for you.

How many 2nd(ish) pairing defenseman do we need?
We already got about four or five.

I get that the upgrade on him might be tough and I'm not a big fan of trying to fix things in free agency as you basically overpay everytime and have to hope that the last couple of years of the contract aren't all that bad.

I personally feel Dunn might be a guy some team might like enough to give up something of value or might be willing to do a "hockey trade" to give up another guy that might need a change of scenery.

And given that we've already invested a good amount of money on guys for those positions(Larsson and Oleksiak) I don't see too much value in keeping another one of those guys around.
Especially with Ryker Evans waiting in the AHL being a somewhat similar prospect(puck moving LHD) and way cheaper than Dunn.

As of right now Dunn and Soucy are our prime trade targets, IMO, unless one of them turns it around and makes himself to valuable to trade for us.

BTW: I'm not blaming everything on Dunn and have been talking about team defense etc. the whole time.
To me it's more about asset management and also paving the way for our prospects as they'll be the most important thing to built something solid in Seattle.

I agree with you that if there is a chance to find an upgrade on Dunn, we should do it for sure. If we can somehow move both Soucy and Dunn at the TDL for assets that can then be flipped for a legit top-pairing D-man, we should absolutely do it.

I am torn on Soucy. I like what he brings but a) He will have really good value at the TDL b) He is a pending UFA and will command a raise.

Dunn is not a 1st pairing D-man. Not sure playing him in that role does the team any favors. And to be honest, I would say Schultz has looked about as good as Dunn has and is signed for another year.

If we move both then next season will look like:

?-Larsson
Oleksiak-Schultz
Evans/FA-Borgen

The 3rd LD could be Evans or a cheapish stay-at-home D-man. Filling that top-D role is easier said than done.

What do we think Dunn and Soucy would return at this TDL (traded separately)? I would look at combing all of those assets + one of our extra 2nd round picks + some B-grade forward prospect(s) to get someone legit for that 1st pairing. Has to be either cost controlled already or with decent term.

 

[Irie]

I've got one question for you.

How many 2nd(ish) pairing defenseman do we need?
We already got about four or five.

Preferably four, to go along with two top pairing guys.

If you look at Colorado last season, they had arguably seven top 4 defenders with five second pairing guys.

And given that we've already invested a good amount of money on guys for those positions(Larsson and Oleksiak) I don't see too much value in keeping another one of those guys around.
Especially with Ryker Evans waiting in the AHL being a somewhat similar prospect(puck moving LHD) and way

The thing is that I don't think you can count Larsson and Oleksiak as interchangeable with Dunn. Schultz is interchangeable with Dunn, but he is 32.

If Schultz goes down, and Dunn is gone, the team has no PPQB, and hoping Evans is going to fill that top role in the next couple of years is wishful thinking imo. I think he is a couple of years away from even being an NHL player, if he makes it at all, and then a couple more years before he's ready to run the PP. Maybe i am being overly cautious, but I never like to pencil unproven players into important roles. If they develop into them early, that is icing on the cake, but if they don't, I am not in a bad situation with no contingency plan.

I also believe that Larsson and Oleksiak should be allowed to walk when their deals are up, which means you only have two more years of Larsson and three of Oleksiak, and when they are gone, the team is going to need some strong vets to lean on.

Soucy is UFA, and while a solid 4/5 guy, he isn't a 2nd unit PP QB.

While I agree that it is looking like Dunn is never going to be a #1 D, I still think there is a current giant hole on the blueline if he is moved., and I feel like he is a great option going forward to lock down that #3 spot. Problem is, Hakstol is playing him in the #1 spot, and he is not up for the challenge. (this is not a knock on Dunn, there are less #1 D-men in the league then there are teams, so there is no shame in not being one of the elite. But asking him to play that role and then criticizing him for not being good enough is not really fair imo).

 

[Irie]

I agree with you that if there is a chance to find an upgrade on Dunn, we should do it for sure. If we can somehow move both Soucy and Dunn at the TDL for assets that can then be flipped for a legit top-pairing D-man, we should absolutely do it.

I am torn on Soucy. I like what he brings but a) He will have really good value at the TDL b) He is a pending UFA and will command a raise.

Dunn is not a 1st pairing D-man. Not sure playing him in that role does the team any favors. And to be honest, I would say Schultz has looked about as good as Dunn has and is signed for another year.

If we move both then next season will look like:

?-Larsson
Oleksiak-Schultz
Evans/FA-Borgen

The 3rd LD could be Evans or a cheapish stay-at-home D-man. Filling that top-D role is easier said than done.

What do we think Dunn and Soucy would return at this TDL (traded separately)? I would look at combing all of those assets + one of our extra 2nd round picks + some B-grade forward prospect(s) to get someone legit for that 1st pairing. Has to be either cost controlled already or with decent term.

While I love the optimism, I think we have to be realistic here. No one is trading a legitimate, top pairing D for anything less than a king's ransom, and like you said, it is easier said than done.

If Francis moves Dunn, he is going to be stuck pursuing guys like Colin Mlller or Klingberg, guys who are so bad in their own end that they will make us wish Francis had signed Dunn to a 12 year deal at any cost (that was hyperbole for the posters that struggle with sarcasm and want to post "eight years is the max you can sign a player for ; )

And while it could happen, I realistically do not expect Schultz to play 82 games both this and next season, and while he has performed ok, he has had just as many blown coverage issues as the rest of the top 4, and I think extending him at 34 would be a bad idea, so I'd anticipate having to replace Shultz along with Dunn (if moved) in 2024, Larsson in 2025, and Oleksiak in 2026. That is a metric ton of turnover.

While in theory it seems plausable, trying to fill your top 4 with UFAs and prospects or trading for cast-offs and hoping for success rarely works. It takes time for new players to integrate into the team/system and develop chemistry, and too much turnover/change tends to lead to sub-par results on the ice.

 

[majormajor]

What do we think Dunn and Soucy would return at this TDL (traded separately)? I would look at combing all of those assets + one of our extra 2nd round picks + some B-grade forward prospect(s) to get someone legit for that 1st pairing. Has to be either cost controlled already or with decent term.

Generically I don't think that fetches a top pair guy. And like Irie said, the UFA options are going to be guys like Klingberg that aren't much different than Dunn. But Francis should be trying to identify the next Devon Toews, the next Weegar or Forsling. There are plenty of top pair D in this league that are worth a fortune now and weren't worth much a few years ago.

hoping Evans is going to fill that top role in the next couple of years is wishful thinking imo. I think he is a couple of years away from even being an NHL player, if he makes it at all, and then a couple more years before he's ready to run the PP. Maybe i am being overly cautious, but I never like to pencil unproven players into important roles. If they develop into them early, that is icing on the cake, but if they don't, I am not in a bad situation with no contingency plan.

I'm bullish on Evans. You don't plan around it because you never know with prospects, but he might be one of our top D as soon as next year.

 

[Irie]

Generically I don't think that fetches a top pair guy. And like Irie said, the UFA options are going to be guys like Klingberg that aren't much different than Dunn. But Francis should be trying to identify the next Devon Toews, the next Weegar or Forsling. There are plenty of top pair D in this league that are worth a fortune now and weren't worth much a few years ago.

For every Toews and Weegar, there are 20 Philippe Meyers, so you have to get somewhat lucky with those pick-ups. With every team going heavy on analytics, the surprises are coming more from true late bloomers than guys being under-utilized and flying under the radar.

I still feel that guys like Dunn and Borgen could be a Weegar or Forsling story, just with another team if Francis gives up on them too early. I think they just may need a coach that knows how to properly use and develop them.

I'm bullish on Evans. You don't plan around it because you never know with prospects, but he might be one of our top D as soon as next year.

I like to see D prospects slowly marinade at each level. Unless they are absolutely ready, rushing them hurts long term development more than rushing forwards, imo.

 

[majormajor]

For every Toews and Weegar, there are 20 Philippe Meyers, so you have to get somewhat lucky with those pick-ups. With every team going heavy on analytics, the surprises are coming more from true late bloomers than guys being under-utilized and flying under the radar.

I agree it is mostly looking for late boomers.

Although there are teams that goof on the analytic value (how do you think we landed Bjorkstrand?).

I still feel that guys like Dunn and Borgen could be a Weegar or Forsling story, just with another team if Francis gives up on them too early. I think they just may need a coach that knows how to properly use and develop them.

I'd sooner believe it with Borgen than Dunn. I just hope Dunn can get back to how he finished off last year.

I like to see D prospects slowly marinade at each level. Unless they are absolutely ready, rushing them hurts long term development more than rushing forwards, imo.

I agree that he'd really need to dominate AHL to justify bringing him up at such a young age. I think that might happen though.

 

[Irie]

I agree that he'd really need to dominate AHL to justify bringing him up at such a young age. I think that might happen though.

I hope your optimism comes to fruition. Having Evans hit would fill such a huge hole in the development needs of this team.

....It would also be a nice bonus to bump all the old 2021 draft threads and see a lot of folks eat large helpings of crow