GDT: [Game #50] Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6:30 PM CT (BS-SW)

[BG44]

Robertson has gone 3 straight games without a point for the first time this season. Only went 3 games without a point 3 times in his rookie season

Still playing well and creating like crazy tho at least.

Trade that mofo. Can you believe they pay him $795K? He better be prepared to take a contract of like ... I don't know $350K or $500K if he wants to keep playing for this team.

 

[Kcb12345]

 

[JesusNPucks]

Gurianov with the speed—wow! And Seguin putting up more and more points. Nicely done!

And is it just me, or does Benn really like scoring five-hole?

 

[Captain Awesome]

nah that's Avs fans for sure. Even in games they win they complain about the refs

Dude, every once in a while I go to other team boards to read about players I'm curious about. Avs fans sound so miserable. There are like 3 or 4 teams in the NHL who have absolutely no right to sound miserable, they are one of them.

I really wanted to watch this game but my *ahem* streaming service of choice was broken so I couldn't watch the replay. The highlights were some of my favorite this year though, seeing Benn and Seguin score like that gave me nostalgia for the old days. Seguin goal in OT was awesome, and so was his assist to Gurianov. Speaking of which, surprised Gurianov didn't get benched for his end to end rush, I bet he got chastised for doing something cool and fun.

I feel at least a little bit bad for Winnipeg fans. Dustin Byfuglien just abruptly retiring really screwed that team, it dropped them from an above average team (that wasn't really a contender) to a bubble team. It's probably a bit more complicated than that, but it set them back for sure.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Nice to have that secondary scoring kick in when we need it. As constituted that line has 34 goals in 50 games, a pace for 56 goals, despite slow starts for all 3 when separated. Not sure where that ranks as a second line, but I usually figure a goal a game+ for top lines (ours checks that box) about 60, or 3/4 GPG for the second, 40 for the 3rd line and 20 for the 4th and scrubs for an "average team." If we take the GPG ratio of Benn/Segs/Guri after they were put together, I bet it would be much higher and in at least the top half of second lines, so yay for us.

It seems so logical to have those guys together as a second line, with Guri replacing a declining Rads. Sometimes I wonder why it takes so long to figure these things out, although I recall the "3 scoring lines" and spread the scorers out a bit theory.

 

[BG44]

Nice to have that secondary scoring kick in when we need it. As constituted that line has 34 goals in 50 games, a pace for 56 goals, despite slow starts for all 3 when separated. Not sure where that ranks as a second line, but I usually figure a goal a game+ for top lines (ours checks that box) about 60, or 3/4 GPG for the second, 40 for the 3rd line and 20 for the 4th and scrubs for an "average team." If we take the GPG ratio of Benn/Segs/Guri after they were put together, I bet it would be much higher and in at least the top half of second lines, so yay for us.

It seems so logical to have those guys together as a second line, with Guri replacing a declining Rads. Sometimes I wonder why it takes so long to figure these things out, although I recall the "3 scoring lines" and spread the scorers out a bit theory.

Bowness was risk-averse. They started the season with Peterson-Seguin-Radulov. Peterson was a rookie, and Seguin was severely limited (it's clear now) returning from injury causing them to struggle defensively. Bowness' first priority as he's stated often was always defense.

I was going to drop this, but I think it's relevant and should be said, people casually throw out that Raffl and Glendening were brought in to replace Cogliano and Comeau, but that's also not true. It's revisionist history. Comeau was retained and expected to be a part of the team. From the beginning, Bowness said over and over again that Raffl had a scoring touch they expected he'd rekindle playing with Benn and Gurianov. I mentioned it then, and it's been true, that was a crazy thing to claim and expect. I liked the Raffl signing with the idea that he was going to be more of a checking, 4th line guy that helped on the PK because he's excelled in that role and hasn't been a depth scorer for a couple of seasons, and he really only had 1 goal-scoring season of significance. That ultimately proved not to be the reason they brought him in though based on usage and what Bones kept saying.

So yeah wondering what took so long to figure this out is two-fold. Bones refused to not play Raffl, Glendening, Faksa, and Comeau, and ultimately that had to be resolved by waiving Comeau. The team also apparently signed and believed a guy that's really never been much of a depth scorer was suddenly going to start scoring, and more importantly, this still remains true today, Bone's aversion to risk is the reason you have Peterson playing under 6 minutes a game.

It's not been figured out yet. That's why Dallas is 28th in 5 on 5 scoring and still struggling. They'll likely continue to win mostly with goaltending and the PP, but it was nice to see them win a different way for the first time in a while. They definitely haven't figured it out yet though. It's great they have a 2nd line that's been doing better, but that's been going for a few weeks. The reason things look more positive right now in terms of playoffs though is definitely the play of Oettinger in the last 4 games. If it's sustainable, they can probably keep the pace they're on without major improvements 5 on 5, but that's not exactly fixing a critical issue for the team.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I agree that Bones "sheltering" Ottinger until recently when him being the starter seemed obvious to us as fans, was also indicative of his conservative bent. That he went to Benn/Segs/Guri, and using Ottinger as the clear no. 1 or at least 1A when it got down to do or die time in the season is frustrating to me, and probably everybody.

As to fixing a critical issue, Bones is doing what a coach can do, but perhaps "better late than never." There aren't too many roster changes that can be made. In going all in, Nill didn't leave the cap flexibility he had earlier in his tenure. Someone said that "he could/should have done something" but I took a look at the UFA scoring forwards available last year, and it didn't look great, although I haven't checked all their stats this year to see if they were worth whatever else someone else paid them.

Besides, again perhaps too late, Hintz, Pavs, JRob, and Seggy have all lived up to the hope of "internal improvement" and Benn and maybe Guri stayed the same. I don't know why Miro, Klinger, Rads (age)Kivi, Faksa (hurt) all went down further than expected, but over my 30 years as a Stars fan, it was usually the case that only 1/2 to 2/3 of their scorers were actually have great scoring seasons. This group required nearly everyone having career years to be true contenders.

 

[BG44]

I agree that Bones "sheltering" Ottinger until recently when him being the starter seemed obvious to us as fans, was also indicative of his conservative bent. That he went to Benn/Segs/Guri, and using Ottinger as the clear no. 1 or at least 1A when it got down to do or die time in the season is frustrating to me, and probably everybody.

As to fixing a critical issue, Bones is doing what a coach can do, but perhaps "better late than never." There aren't too many roster changes that can be made. In going all in, Nill didn't leave the cap flexibility he had earlier in his tenure. Someone said that "he could/should have done something" but I took a look at the UFA scoring forwards available last year, and it didn't look great, although I haven't checked all their stats this year to see if they were worth whatever else someone else paid them.

Besides, again perhaps too late, Hintz, Pavs, JRob, and Seggy have all lived up to the hope of "internal improvement" and Benn and maybe Guri stayed the same. I don't know why Miro, Klinger, Rads (age)Kivi, Faksa (hurt) all went down further than expected, but over my 30 years as a Stars fan, it was usually the case that only 1/2 to 2/3 of their scorers were actually have great scoring seasons. This group required nearly everyone having career years to be true contenders.

I'm going to take some blame away from Bones, but I'm also going to not give Bones credit where it's not deserved by refuting 2 things you've said.

Reese makes the call on goaltending. Bones has been clear about that from the beginning. Reese also had a really good track record as a goalie coach. While it does amaze me that Oettinger had only played 3 road games prior to that Colorado game, and I at times thought that was insane, the way Reese has managed Oettinger has brought us to this point that I don't think you can say Otter's the 1A option right now. In the past week, he's the clear #1 goaltender on the team, and it's his job to lose or hold on to. Goaltending is baffling so yeah I felt like the decisions seemed really odd, but there's also a part of me that doesn't want to argue with the results if they've created what we're seeing right now. However we view it though, those decisions have been on Reese and not Bones.

On the other hand, it's utter crap that Bones doesn't have options. He's refused to explore them. Nill deserves blame for the cap and roster make-up for sure, but he also deserves blame for allowing the coach to refuse to play depth players. Nill waived both Comeau and Kero to give the team a chance for younger guys to help with secondary scoring, and Bones refused to play them. Regardless of who the player was, they either played a handful of minutes or remained scratched. Despite being 6th in goal scoring, Peterson is a 4th liner.

When it comes to depth scoring, it's up to those two to figure out a solution. Apparently, a coaching change was considered, and Nill didn't pull the trigger. That was one option getting a coach that would put players in a position to improve 5 on 5 scoring. It's on Nill now then for not getting a player that Bowness would be willing to trust in that role. They're both screwing this up and making bad decisions when it comes to making an actual tangible positive impact on the team. Who you choose to blame seems to depend on which guy you favor a bit more because it's not one or the other. They clearly aren't on the same page about how to correct the issue. They're both deserve equal blame.

I'm not even suggesting that it MUST be fixed. If it's not, I'm fairly confident that they'll be out in Round 1 if they make the playoffs, and at minimum 1 will be gone and there's a good chance both will be gone. Their entire identity right now is basically winning because of goaltending, the PP, or the 1st line. I think the only thing that actually frustrates me is Gaglardi and Nill claim they're built for the playoffs and they believe in this team, yet winning in the playoffs requires 5 on 5 scoring and you've done nothing. You've had a pow-wow about changing the coach, decided not to do it, and you're not doing really anything to improve scoring so far. What you're saying publically doesn't match what you're actually doing.

 

[BfantZ]

I'm going to take some blame away from Bones, but I'm also going to not give Bones credit where it's not deserved by refuting 2 things you've said.

Reese makes the call on goaltending. Bones has been clear about that from the beginning. Reese also had a really good track record as a goalie coach. While it does amaze me that Oettinger had only played 3 road games prior to that Colorado game, and I at times thought that was insane, the way Reese has managed Oettinger has brought us to this point that I don't think you can say Otter's the 1A option right now. In the past week, he's the clear #1 goaltender on the team, and it's his job to lose or hold on to. Goaltending is baffling so yeah I felt like the decisions seemed really odd, but there's also a part of me that doesn't want to argue with the results if they've created what we're seeing right now. However we view it though, those decisions have been on Reese and not Bones.

On the other hand, it's utter crap that Bones doesn't have options. He's refused to explore them. Nill deserves blame for the cap and roster make-up for sure, but he also deserves blame for allowing the coach to refuse to play depth players. Nill waived both Comeau and Kero to give the team a chance for younger guys to help with secondary scoring, and Bones refused to play them. Regardless of who the player was, they either played a handful of minutes or remained scratched. Despite being 6th in goal scoring, Peterson is a 4th liner.

When it comes to depth scoring, it's up to those two to figure out a solution. Apparently, a coaching change was considered, and Nill didn't pull the trigger. That was one option getting a coach that would put players in a position to improve 5 on 5 scoring. It's on Nill now then for not getting a player that Bowness would be willing to trust in that role. They're both screwing this up and making bad decisions when it comes to making an actual tangible positive impact on the team. Who you choose to blame seems to depend on which guy you favor a bit more because it's not one or the other. They clearly aren't on the same page about how to correct the issue. They're both deserve equal blame.

I'm not even suggesting that it MUST be fixed. If it's not, I'm fairly confident that they'll be out in Round 1 if they make the playoffs, and at minimum 1 will be gone and there's a good chance both will be gone. Their entire identity right now is basically winning because of goaltending, the PP, or the 1st line. I think the only thing that actually frustrates me is Gaglardi and Nill claim they're built for the playoffs and they believe in this team, yet winning in the playoffs requires 5 on 5 scoring and you've done nothing. You've had a pow-wow about changing the coach, decided not to do it, and you're not doing really anything to improve scoring so far. What you're saying publically doesn't match what you're actually doing.

I actually do believe they can still do damage in the playoffs . The conservative system works in the playoffs when you have a 7 game series . You can win the Stanley cup going 16 -12 . Problem is , playing that conservative 2-1 style game leave you to close to losing that your always gonna be losing games here and there at best and in the regular season that’s always gonna leave you fighting to get into the playoffs .

 

[serp]

I actually do believe they can still do damage in the playoffs . The conservative system works in the playoffs when you have a 7 game series . You can win the Stanley cup going 16 -12 . Problem is , playing that conservative 2-1 style game leave you to close to losing that your always gonna be losing games here and there at best and in the regular season that’s always gonna leave you fighting to get into the playoffs .

The coaching staff is also very good at analysing other teams strenghs and weaknesses and adjust to it. You can't really gameplan in the regular season but in a 7 game series ? Very much so

 

[BG44]

That's not actually true though. They weren't conservative in the bubble, and they're scoring 5 on 5 was a big part of their success. In fact, in terms of teams that made it out of the first round in the bubble, their overall team defense was among the worst. They weren't the same team in the bubble they've been prior to and after the bubble.

I guess people don't remember, but Dallas was scored on 82 times in the bubble, more than 3 goals per game.

I don't think it's crazy to say that the team could have some success in the playoffs this season. I think it's crazy to think they could have some success deployed the same way they are right now without a significant improvement in 5 on 5 scoring whether that's personnel or philosophy. The way they're playing and built right now is not typical of playoff success. That's just buying into the company line.

I'm just saying if the team is actually under the impression they can make waves in the playoffs, they'd be more concerned about scoring goals and trying to find a way to do that.

 

[BG44]

The coaching staff is also very good at analysing other teams strenghs and weaknesses and adjust to it. You can't really gameplan in the regular season but in a 7 game series ? Very much so

That's wild to say. You're telling me they can manage a 7 game series better than a single game? That's lunacy.

I'm not even trying to attack them. I'm simply pointing out the fatal flaw of the team and suggesting it's not all on Nill or all on Bones. They're both deserving of blame. What you're saying here though is drinking the Gaglardi/Nill koolaid that magically when the playoffs start everything will be fine. Their "style of play" isn't even the reason they previously had success in the bubble.

 

[BfantZ]

That's not actually true though. They weren't conservative in the bubble, and they're scoring 5 on 5 was a big part of their success. In fact, in terms of teams that made it out of the first round in the bubble, their overall team defense was among the worst. They weren't the same team in the bubble they've been prior to and after the bubble.

I guess people don't remember, but Dallas was scored on 82 times in the bubble, more than 3 goals per game.

I don't think it's crazy to say that the team could have some success in the playoffs this season. I think it's crazy to think they could have some success deployed the same way they are right now without a significant improvement in 5 on 5 scoring whether that's personnel or philosophy. The way they're playing and built right now is not typical of playoff success. That's just buying into the company line.

I'm just saying if the team is actually under the impression they can make waves in the playoffs, they'd be more concerned about scoring goals and trying to find a way to do that.

Wasn’t even talking about there big playoff run . In general , you don’t necessarily need to be a high scoring team in the playoffs to win a best of 7 is what I’m saying . That system can work in the playoffs . The stars still played that system though in the bubble , they just didn’t get great goaltending from khudobin and luckily had bad goaltending to face on the other end aswell .

 

[David Castillo]

Kind of shocked this "defense wins championships" mentality still exists. Defense doesn't win championships. Great teams do. If you look at all the Cup winners of the last 20 years, some are teams that were elite at keeping goals down, some were elite at scoring goals. Dallas has neither an elite offense, nor an elite defense. It's amazing what one "run" can do for the validation of a team's philosophy. Even if that philosophy failed them last season, and has failed to assert dominance this season.

 

[BfantZ]

Kind of shocked this "defense wins championships" mentality still exists. Defense doesn't win championships. Great teams do. If you look at all the Cup winners of the last 20 years, some are teams that were elite at keeping goals down, some were elite at scoring goals. Dallas has neither an elite offense, nor an elite defense. It's amazing what one "run" can do for the validation of a team's philosophy. Even if that philosophy failed them last season, and has failed to assert dominance this season.

You are right that great teams win championships . However , if your team is not great and you make the playoffs , playing a conservative style will give you a strong chance at winning series’.