GDT: Game 33: Sharks @ Penguins 10:00am NCBSCA Same lineup

[tiburon12]

It's more like that there's no other reasonably plausible answer. Everything you put out here is completely useless for the purpose of trying to build the team properly. I have never once said that this process was going to be easy yet you continue to straw man the argument. Pointing out the complete lack of a coherent alternative is done for the purpose of showing you that it is still a matter of what the real options are for this situation. In this scenario, it is pretty binary. You either are for rebuilding or you are for continued mediocrity. It is unbelievably stupid to compare a rebuild to what you did. This is a sport and about building a team. There is absolutely no utility out of what you compared it to and nowhere close to being apt.

When it comes to your road map concern, the reason why you don't think it's much of one is because you're purposely looking for any ridiculous counter no matter how shallow it is. It has been stated to you numerous times that getting the franchise talent is only the first step towards finding a way to meaningfully compete again. You are absolutely being uncharitable to the rebuild because you're attempting to draw a straight line from franchise player to Stanley Cup when nobody argued that. The argument has been that you will not meaningfully compete for a Cup without that franchise talent. The argument has not been that those picks on their own, conveniently leaving out the draft position of many who have been instrumental in winning their Cups, win those Cups.

I don't know where you get that the Rangers are flying through their rebuild not because of the draft. Their elite goalie was acquired through the draft. A significant amount of their depth was acquired through the draft. Even with that, the things that they're benefiting from are not things that the Sharks are going to have at their disposal so it's pretty pointless to use them as a model. We're not going to have an Artemi Panarin walk through our doors anytime soon. We're not going to have an Adam Fox pretty much bully his way into a trade onto our team. What exactly do you expect to take from their model and apply to the Sharks' situation?

The idea that I haven't considered the time, difficulty, and improbability that it works is just plain silly. I've just come to the conclusion that it's their least bad option. People need to wake up to the reality that another Thornton trade simply isn't in the cards. DW took that shot with Karlsson and it isn't working out like they hoped. DW also more or less declined to take that shot with Eichel so the options there have dried up. If things here haven't changed by the time the next potential franchise caliber talent is available, there's still opportunity for discussions at that point but no one is currently available. You're left with only one actual option and that's the draft. If Hertl walks, there are no viable replacements available.

Again, go ahead and present something resembling a coherent alternative and I'll hear you out but denying the reality of the situation is only going to prevent you from seeking out real answers.

Of course I'm drawing a straight line between getting franchise talent with a high draft pick and winning a cup. That's the whole point of tanking and rebuilding. There is a stark difference between tanking - selling assets for picks and actively trying to finish with the best lottery odds - and taking a step back to retool and acquire young players while maintaining a good and winning culture.

I am actively against tanking and entering a 10-year rebuild on ~12% chances of success, during the most turbulent and unpredictable years of our lives, in an era with a flat cap and nearly-impossible "forecastability", and with all recent examples showing that tanking doesn't work. There's far too much pressure on landing a bonafide, elite franchise talent like (who we think will be) Bedard, Wright, Michkov etc, when there is a reasonable chance the team doesn't get the right lottery luck. With teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle, Ottawa, Montreal, NYI, New Jersey, and Chicago all but guaranteed to finish lower and with better lottery odds, I don't see how any drastic selling or whatever is going to increase this team's chances at getting that talent.

If you are so insistent on an alternative, i'd propose the following (assuming there isn't some 2018 Blues turnaround):

- Trade Couture to a team like Boston that needs a center and one that wants to prolong it's window with their core
- Trade Burns to a team like Dallas or Florida that have a chance and that he would be interested in going to
- Trade Cogs and Simek and Labanc and Reimer if possible
- Acquire a bonafide goalie prospect and other prospects/picks from those trades (for example Reimer for Newhook)
- Sign Hertl with the savings, extend Meier when the time comes and keep Barabonov, Dahlen
- Pick in the top-10 in 2022
- Fire Boughner and hire someone like Woodcroft (i'm admittedly deficient with coaching knowledge)

This way, you get picks that can be useful and can still maintain a level of competitiveness that establishes as much of a winning culture as possible. in 2022, you introduce young players like Eklund and Coe, maybe Weisblatt and Guschin, and some of the guys who stepped up with success earlier this year (merkley, Kniazev). Give them real exposure.

Where this differs from a tank is that there are still motivated leaders (Karlsson, Meier, Hertl) that can lead by example and maintain the concept that winning matters. This ultimately will pay dividends when the team is ready to be driven by the young players, as the team will be more attractive to UFAs to fill roles.

This is far more realistic and reasonable than a tank/rebuild and makes the team more competitive faster. They retain their #1 C, W, and D, and invest in getting a true #1 G. Because the team isn't dogshit and has potential, they can attract UFAs throughout the process and further make progress towards winning.

Considering the last 4 drafts (exclude 2021 since its too recent) have yielded better talent in picks outside the top 2 than inside (Svech aside), you further mitigate risk by banking on getting a Makar, Hughes/ Tkachuk, Byram/Seider/Zegras, Raymond, etc or two while still preserving a good team culture.

Go ahead and shoot holes in this plan. It's far more stomachable than trying to mimic Arizona and Buffalo and Ottawa

Edit: I really think the org needs to invest more in making the market more attractive. These young players (who may at some point be free agents, college or nhl) are from a generation that want to work for companies that value them. Make San Jose a team with values and an identity, and maybe a big name like panarin or Tavares will want to play there. Having that is very dependent on having a a winning culture

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Of course I'm drawing a straight line between getting franchise talent with a high draft pick and winning a cup. That's the whole point of tanking and rebuilding. There is a stark difference between tanking - selling assets for picks and actively trying to finish with the best lottery odds - and taking a step back to retool and acquire young players while maintaining a good and winning culture.

I am actively against tanking and entering a 10-year rebuild on ~12% chances of success, during the most turbulent and unpredictable years of our lives, in an era with a flat cap and nearly-impossible "forecastability", and with all recent examples showing that tanking doesn't work. There's far too much pressure on landing a bonafide, elite franchise talent like (who we think will be) Bedard, Wright, Michkov etc, when there is a reasonable chance the team doesn't get the right lottery luck. With teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Seattle, Ottawa, Montreal, NYI, New Jersey, and Chicago all but guaranteed to finish lower and with better lottery odds, I don't see how any drastic selling or whatever is going to increase this team's chances at getting that talent.

If you are so insistent on an alternative, i'd propose the following (assuming there isn't some 2018 Blues turnaround):

- Trade Couture to a team like Boston that needs a center and one that wants to prolong it's window with their core
- Trade Burns to a team like Dallas or Florida that have a chance and that he would be interested in going to
- Trade Cogs and Simek and Labanc and Reimer if possible
- Acquire a bonafide goalie prospect and other prospects/picks from those trades (for example Reimer for Newhook)
- Sign Hertl with the savings, extend Meier when the time comes and keep Barabonov, Dahlen
- Pick in the top-10 in 2022
- Fire Boughner and hire someone like Woodcroft (i'm admittedly deficient with coaching knowledge)

This way, you get picks that can be useful and can still maintain a level of competitiveness that establishes as much of a winning culture as possible. in 2022, you introduce young players like Eklund and Coe, maybe Weisblatt and Guschin, and some of the guys who stepped up with success earlier this year (merkley, Kniazev). Give them real exposure.

Where this differs from a tank is that there are still motivated leaders (Karlsson, Meier, Hertl) that can lead by example and maintain the concept that winning matters. This ultimately will pay dividends when the team is ready to be driven by the young players, as the team will be more attractive to UFAs to fill roles.

This is far more realistic and reasonable than a tank/rebuild and makes the team more competitive faster. They retain their #1 C, W, and D, and invest in getting a true #1 G. Because the team isn't dogshit and has potential, they can attract UFAs throughout the process and further make progress towards winning.

Considering the last 4 drafts (exclude 2021 since its too recent) have yielded better talent in picks outside the top 2 than inside (Svech aside), you further mitigate risk by banking on getting a Makar, Hughes/ Tkachuk, Byram/Seider/Zegras, Raymond, etc or two while still preserving a good team culture.

Go ahead and shoot holes in this plan. It's far more stomachable than trying to mimic Arizona and Buffalo and Ottawa

Edit: I really think the org needs to invest more in making the market more attractive. These young players (who may at some point be free agents, college or nhl) are from a generation that want to work for companies that value them. Make San Jose a team with values and an identity, and maybe a big name like panarin or Tavares will want to play there. Having that is very dependent on having a a winning culture

The fundamental problem I have with your premise is that the team has a good winning culture. They don't. They were highly competitive for a long time. Since the Karlsson re-signing, they haven't been very competitive and they haven't done very much to even try to be. And three years of mediocre results is what has followed. I just don't see how keeping what we got, trading pieces that won't yield much of a return, and hoping that our current crop of prospects will all pan out is a sound and reasonable strategy moving forward. I agree it's too late to tank this season but selling off Hertl has to be done if he's going to continue to be uncertain about his future here. I'm just not convinced of him wanting to stay and I'm even less convinced that Meier wants to be here long term. I'd probably be alright with them both signing long term contracts even knowing how difficult it will be to get rid of the long term deals we have now and the risks associated with both of them getting one. I just don't see it as likely nor do I see it as their best option moving forward. It doesn't do much good to keep Hertl and Meier if we can't surround them with the kind of talent needed to be competitive.

And that's the rub. Being competitive with the likes of Hertl and Meier leading the way up front with Karlsson on the backend is a near impossible to the level of even being a playoff team. We aren't a good developing franchise. We aren't a premier destination for free agents. Trading to fill holes in the lineup is costly. Their only real option is to continue drafting with as many picks as they can get to hedge against the reality that they can't expect even just two to hit from the 2020 draft or simply one another besides Eklund from the 2021 draft to hit.

The other thing is that comparing the top end of these next two drafts to previous ones is not doing due diligence on what these prospects are compared to the previous ones. Shane Wright is a legitimate prospect. Connor Bedard is probably a step above most everyone that's been drafted after Auston Matthews.

I just don't get how you think it's more stomachable to continue mediocrity that will not likely yield playoff appearances much less success there than at least trying to build the foundation back up that they have already lost. This team doesn't have a foundation anymore and needs that to get moving in the right direction. I just don't get how you expect a franchise that has had the issues they have had for a long time to have any other real answer but to focus more on drafting. If they had already had a player to build around, I'd probably agree with you on what to do moving forward but they don't have that. Hertl, Meier, and Karlsson aren't that.

 

[Pavelski2112]

The fundamental problem I have with your premise is that the team has a good winning culture. They don't. They were highly competitive for a long time. Since the Karlsson re-signing, they haven't been very competitive and they haven't done very much to even try to be. And three years of mediocre results is what has followed. I just don't see how keeping what we got, trading pieces that won't yield much of a return, and hoping that our current crop of prospects will all pan out is a sound and reasonable strategy moving forward. I agree it's too late to tank this season but selling off Hertl has to be done if he's going to continue to be uncertain about his future here. I'm just not convinced of him wanting to stay and I'm even less convinced that Meier wants to be here long term. I'd probably be alright with them both signing long term contracts even knowing how difficult it will be to get rid of the long term deals we have now and the risks associated with both of them getting one. I just don't see it as likely nor do I see it as their best option moving forward. It doesn't do much good to keep Hertl and Meier if we can't surround them with the kind of talent needed to be competitive.

And that's the rub. Being competitive with the likes of Hertl and Meier leading the way up front with Karlsson on the backend is a near impossible to the level of even being a playoff team. We aren't a good developing franchise. We aren't a premier destination for free agents. Trading to fill holes in the lineup is costly. Their only real option is to continue drafting with as many picks as they can get to hedge against the reality that they can't expect even just two to hit from the 2020 draft or simply one another besides Eklund from the 2021 draft to hit.

The other thing is that comparing the top end of these next two drafts to previous ones is not doing due diligence on what these prospects are compared to the previous ones. Shane Wright is a legitimate prospect. Connor Bedard is probably a step above most everyone that's been drafted after Auston Matthews.

I just don't get how you think it's more stomachable to continue mediocrity that will not likely yield playoff appearances much less success there than at least trying to build the foundation back up that they have already lost. This team doesn't have a foundation anymore and needs that to get moving in the right direction. I just don't get how you expect a franchise that has had the issues they have had for a long time to have any other real answer but to focus more on drafting. If they had already had a player to build around, I'd probably agree with you on what to do moving forward but they don't have that. Hertl, Meier, and Karlsson aren't that.

This team is as far away from Seattle as they are from Vegas, there's plenty of time to go down the rankings with ~50 games left.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This team is as far away from Seattle as they are from Vegas, there's plenty of time to go down the rankings with ~50 games left.

Yeah but the odds of catching either is very slim at this point. 10-11 points is not easy to overcome or lose in the standings and the Sharks, even without Hertl come deadline, won't be able to fall that far. This team can probably fall as low as 7th or 8th at this point. Should still produce a solid pick but not one you can build around. And Bedard is a guy I would absolutely torch the entire team to grab.

 

[hohosaregood]

Yeah but the odds of catching either is very slim at this point. 10-11 points is not easy to overcome or lose in the standings and the Sharks, even without Hertl come deadline, won't be able to fall that far. This team can probably fall as low as 7th or 8th at this point. Should still produce a solid pick but not one you can build around. And Bedard is a guy I would absolutely torch the entire team to grab.

You could totally keep the core of this team and be bad enough to get Bedard cuz the core really isn't good enough to be anything more than average and next year all of them are going to be worse. I'd probably just keep Meier at this point and sell on Hertl and whoever else you can, which is probably nobody so whats even the point of that. Might as well just sit back and just watch everybody age out and backfill with the high picks.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You could totally keep the core of this team and be bad enough to get Bedard cuz the core really isn't good enough to be anything more than average and next year all of them are going to be worse. I'd probably just keep Meier at this point and sell on Hertl and whoever else you can, which is probably nobody so whats even the point of that. Might as well just sit back and just watch everybody age out and backfill with the high picks.

I don't know if that's necessarily true. Look at all the teams currently below us on a points-per-game basis and tell me how just losing Hertl puts them there? I agree there will be a hit but enough of a hit to get to the bottom? Not if we're still keeping Couture, Meier, Karlsson, and Burns. Arizona may end up getting Shane Wright and move themselves out of that area but I don't think Ottawa, Buffalo, and Seattle are going anywhere. Even Chicago. But when it comes to Meier specifically, it's more my belief that he doesn't want to be here long term more than tanking that drives my wanting to trade him. It's just coincidence that tanking is probably this team's best option moving forward.

 

[hohosaregood]

I don't know if that's necessarily true. Look at all the teams currently below us on a points-per-game basis and tell me how just losing Hertl puts them there? I agree there will be a hit but enough of a hit to get to the bottom? Not if we're still keeping Couture, Meier, Karlsson, and Burns. Arizona may end up getting Shane Wright and move themselves out of that area but I don't think Ottawa, Buffalo, and Seattle are going anywhere. Even Chicago. But when it comes to Meier specifically, it's more my belief that he doesn't want to be here long term more than tanking that drives my wanting to trade him. It's just coincidence that tanking is probably this team's best option moving forward.

Burns and Couture are on the verge of falling off completely. I would not be shocked if it was next year tbh. Meier and Karlsson are complete toss ups too but even if they're still good next year, you got like 1 defenseman and 1 forward that are core pieces on any team in the league. Everybody else on the roster are basically JAGs you'd find on any other team's depth.

This team is barely in contention for the playoffs as is, not to mention the difference between the playoffs and a top 6 pick is like 5 points (aka a 2-0-1 record). Without Hertl and the likely decline of a top 6 forward and top 4 defenseman, I would not be shocked to see this team end up in the bottom 5. We can't even assume the goaltending stays above .900 next year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Burns and Couture are on the verge of falling off completely. I would not be shocked if it was next year tbh. Meier and Karlsson are complete toss ups too but even if they're still good next year, you got like 1 defenseman and 1 forward that are core pieces on any team in the league. Everybody else on the roster are basically JAGs you'd find on any other team's depth.

This team is barely in contention for the playoffs as is, not to mention the difference between the playoffs and a top 6 pick is like 5 points (aka a 2-0-1 record). Without Hertl and the likely decline of a top 6 forward and top 4 defenseman, I would not be shocked to see this team end up in the bottom 5. We can't even assume the goaltending stays above .900 next year.

I get that but there are also things occurring next offseason that could counterbalance that. If Ryan Merkley continues to shine in the AHL like he has this season, I have to believe that DW will get him in the lineup and a producer like him can do damage in sheltered situations. The other likelihood is that Eklund will be a Shark next year to go along with opportunities given to all of Wiesblatt, Robins, Bordeleau (if he signs), Gushchin, and Coe. There's a lot of youth that will probably be given an opportunity next season and while I don't think they all will, just getting one other forward besides Eklund and someone like Merkley who can produce in there can buoy some of that decline.

I just think there's enough coming up to continue the mediocrity rather than completely fall off as a team.

 

[hohosaregood]

I get that but there are also things occurring next offseason that could counterbalance that. If Ryan Merkley continues to shine in the AHL like he has this season, I have to believe that DW will get him in the lineup and a producer like him can do damage in sheltered situations. The other likelihood is that Eklund will be a Shark next year to go along with opportunities given to all of Wiesblatt, Robins, Bordeleau (if he signs), Gushchin, and Coe. There's a lot of youth that will probably be given an opportunity next season and while I don't think they all will, just getting one other forward besides Eklund and someone like Merkley who can produce in there can buoy some of that decline.

I just think there's enough coming up to continue the mediocrity rather than completely fall off as a team.

Optimistically, I can only see Eklund and Merkley as full time NHL contributors next year and I don't think they're going to be at a level that can replace Hertl and Burns wholesale. Even then, we're talking about rookies. We'd be lucky to get 40 points each from them. Let's say, with Hertl and co, we finish poorly and end up at the #7 spot again, and then we let Hertl go, I just don't see rookies raising this team above that spot next year. And I think only 2-3 teams at this bottom are going to stay at the bottom