Post-Game Talk: Game #14: Canucks 3, Capitals 2 - Powerplay Goals Are Overrated

[Lemurion]

and all im saying is they get a little less shots than they do now and their shooting percent doesn't go up as high as you imagine.

its not as far fetched as you think. and your stats prove nothing.

i think their pp is poor, you think its good, we'll see where it ends up.

I don't think you have been really paying attention to how much of an outlier their current shooting percentage is. As of right now, the Canucks are shooting 4.2% when playing 5 on 4. To put that in perspective, last season the Canucks had an 11.7% conversion rate with the man advantage, and the two worst teams in the league were pushing 9.5%.

The Canucks' conversion rate at even strength is 9.0%.

If you look at those numbers, the idea that the Canucks are going to double that PP SH% by the end of the season is actually conservative, as even that would be well below the lowest percentage of any team from last season.

Yes, the Canucks PP is doing very poorly right now, but the SH% is much more likely to increase than the number of shots is to decrease by the same proportion. It's a small sample size, and random chance is skewing the results.

 

[Tanevian*]

I dont know either. It's there in black and white.

McCreary & Koharski were on 1040 today and mentioned that this was pointed out to the in game officials yesterday. I find it impossible to believe the refs didn't know the rule, but you'd think if that was true they'd at least THINK it was an interference penalty.

 

[Tanevian*]

Fourth line needs improvement. There is no reason why Weber should play as a forward. You either waive him, bench him, or play him as defense. Whatever you do just get a fourth liner that can play the game! Same goes for Sestito... he has size yes but the guy has lost every fight... can't play for ****, as well as giving the Caps 2 goals last night.

These 2 players need to be taken out of the line up (waive, bench, etc.) for players that can play. If Santorelli only cost us 500k, then imagine what kind of role players we can get if we find em!

When Hansen, Weise & Booth are back our 4th line is just fine.

 

[Lundface*]

As someone pointed out, that Hamhuis own goal cost Luongo 0.003 points off his SVP. The goal that Tanev tipped into his own net on what would have been a routine save cost him the same as well. Eliminate those two own goals and Luongo's stats would be 2.32GAA, 0.914SVP. Not bad at all.

#SampleSize

Might as well start counting posts as well...lets pretend Maata scored on his empty net and Crosby scored on his deflection.

#itgoesbothways

Luongo will be good for average goaltending, as he has been the past 2 seasons. He will have hot streaks and his stats will be much better this year IMO playing behind what looks like a pretty responsible team. Just have to hope he continues to be average in the playoffs and avoids his colossal meltdowns. If he goes on a hot streak even better.

I do like his rebound control a bit better than in the recent past so that's a good sign.

 

[LeftCoast]

Fourth line needs improvement. There is no reason why Weber should play as a forward. You either waive him, bench him, or play him as defense. Whatever you do just get a fourth liner that can play the game! Same goes for Sestito... he has size yes but the guy has lost every fight... can't play for ****, as well as giving the Caps 2 goals last night.

These 2 players need to be taken out of the line up (waive, bench, etc.) for players that can play. If Santorelli only cost us 500k, then imagine what kind of role players we can get if we find em!

Personally I'd rather see Weber on the 4th line than Sestito.

 

[thepuckmonster]

Personally I'd rather see Weber on the 4th line than Sestito.

Likewise.

 

[PhilMick]

McCreary & Koharski were on 1040 today and mentioned that this was pointed out to the in game officials yesterday. I find it impossible to believe the refs didn't know the rule, but you'd think if that was true they'd at least THINK it was an interference penalty.

They probably don't bother trying to keep up to date on the rules since they change from game to game.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Sestito should only be dressed against the big badass type teams.

 

[Tanevian*]

Personally I'd rather see Weber on the 4th line than Sestito.

Yuck.

 

[vanuck]

They probably don't bother trying to keep up to date on the rules since they change from game to game.

I don't think you have been really paying attention to how much of an outlier their current shooting percentage is. As of right now, the Canucks are shooting 4.2% when playing 5 on 4. To put that in perspective, last season the Canucks had an 11.7% conversion rate with the man advantage, and the two worst teams in the league were pushing 9.5%.

The Canucks' conversion rate at even strength is 9.0%.

If you look at those numbers, the idea that the Canucks are going to double that PP SH% by the end of the season is actually conservative, as even that would be well below the lowest percentage of any team from last season.

Yes, the Canucks PP is doing very poorly right now, but the SH% is much more likely to increase than the number of shots is to decrease by the same proportion. It's a small sample size, and random chance is skewing the results.

This. Keep shooting and they're bound to eventually go in. Hard not to think the low conversion has just been a matter of bad luck so far... such as Daniel accidentally getting his blade in the way of the puck that was about to bounce over the goal line.

 

[Verviticus]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6401

heres a good post about 5 on 4 shot rates

 

[RobertKron]

Fourth line needs improvement. There is no reason why Weber should play as a forward. You either waive him, bench him, or play him as defense. Whatever you do just get a fourth liner that can play the game! Same goes for Sestito... he has size yes but the guy has lost every fight... can't play for ****, as well as giving the Caps 2 goals last night.

These 2 players need to be taken out of the line up (waive, bench, etc.) for players that can play. If Santorelli only cost us 500k, then imagine what kind of role players we can get if we find em!

No ****ing kidding the fourth line needs improvement. They've got four forwards out with injury. Jesus Christ.

 

[vanuck]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6401

heres a good post about 5 on 4 shot rates

It's still early, but that's a massive jump from last year for the Canucks' PP.

No doubt adding Garrison on the 1st unit full-time has helped that measure.

 

[MS]

Did you see the two goals?

... and this is the classic Dan Cloutier follow-up.

Good goalies stop the majority of good scoring chances. Over the course of the 10 or so games he's played, an elite goalie would probably have brought back a couple goals that Luongo didn't.

Not necessarily the two goals last night, but somewhere along the way.

You could argue it's the Martin Brodeur defense as well. The year the Devils won the Cup in '03 he had a 2.02 GAA and only a .914 Save%. How about his numbers last year? He had a 2.22 GAA and only a .901 Save%. No matter how good or bad the Devils are as a team, they always allow a very, very low amount of shots.

I'm not trying to defend Luongo because I'm actually one of those people who has been of the mind that he's been average this year but I also want to acknowledge the "low shots against = low save % for the goalie" thing is absolutely true.

I've personally never thought Brodeur was terribly good, and has been the product of 20 years of playing behind the best defense in hockey that took the fewest penalties in hockey. Getting into that debate is probably not a good idea ...

But in 12-13 Brodeur was terrible by any metric. His awful goaltending cost the Devils a playoff spot. He was the worst starter in the NHL and turned one of the best possession teams in the NHL into a bottom-feeder.

As someone pointed out, that Hamhuis own goal cost Luongo 0.003 points off his SVP. The goal that Tanev tipped into his own net on what would have been a routine save cost him the same as well. Eliminate those two own goals and Luongo's stats would be 2.32GAA, 0.914SVP. Not bad at all.

#SampleSize

Every goalie has had goals like that. And Luongo has had a disproportionate number of posts hit behind him this year. A couple of those go in, and he's below .900.

He's not playing badly, and he's making saves at key times, but he hasn't been great so far this year. Eventually some of these one-goal games will start going the other way, and if his performance doesn't improve it'll be more of an issue.

 

[alternate]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6401

heres a good post about 5 on 4 shot rates

Only a stat groupie would think this is any kind of revalation. "we need to get more shots on net" is the go-to cliche for a struggling power play for as long as I've been watching hockey.

Really all any one needs to do is watch a game or two to recognize its just a matter of time before our PP goes on a hot streak. Pretty soon we'll go 5 for 8 over 3 games and get our average heading the right way.

Stat geeks will have some fancy pants terminology for this, but in reality it'll just be the hockey gods balancing things out.

 

[Verviticus]

Only a stat groupie would think this is any kind of revalation. "we need to get more shots on net" is the go-to cliche for a struggling power play for as long as I've been watching hockey.

Really all any one needs to do is watch a game or two to recognize its just a matter of time before our PP goes on a hot streak. Pretty soon we'll go 5 for 8 over 3 games and get our average heading the right way.

Stat geeks will have some fancy pants terminology for this, but in reality it'll just be the hockey gods balancing things out.

there are people arguing the literal opposite in this thread. you have to be a crazy person to think that the majority of people think the way you do (they dont)

also 'regression' is a pretty non-fancy term

 

[me2]

That's not how it works.

That is how it works.

10 8 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1

Buffalo is potentially in the hole -$10m in cap recapture (paid $18m cash, got $8m cap hit) if he retires early. Any team getting Ehrhroff gets the 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 years, all years at or below his $4m cap hit. It is impossible for a new team to get hit with cap advantage recovery since the salary is never higher than the cap hit in any of those years.

 

[me2]

... and this is the classic Dan Cloutier follow-up.

Good goalies stop the majority of good scoring chances. Over the course of the 10 or so games he's played, an elite goalie would probably have brought back a couple goals that Luongo didn't.

Not necessarily the two goals last night, but somewhere along the way.



I've personally never thought Brodeur was terribly good, and has been the product of 20 years of playing behind the best defense in hockey that took the fewest penalties in hockey. Getting into that debate is probably not a good idea ...

But in 12-13 Brodeur was terrible by any metric. His awful goaltending cost the Devils a playoff spot. He was the worst starter in the NHL and turned one of the best possession teams in the NHL into a bottom-feeder.



Every goalie has had goals like that. And Luongo has had a disproportionate number of posts hit behind him this year. A couple of those go in, and he's below .900.

He's not playing badly, and he's making saves at key times, but he hasn't been great so far this year. Eventually some of these one-goal games will start going the other way, and if his performance doesn't improve it'll be more of an issue.

I'm still letting him off for the Hamhuis goal and giving him that 0.03 back. He's about .911 in my mind which I think is representative of his play so far this this season. OK not great, but as we all know it is only October and he's has looked much better lately.