GDT: Game 10 - CBJ at CHI - 31 Jan, 7pm

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Michael Del Zotto has as many points (4) as Werenski and Jones *combined* through 18% of the season. He's also played better than both of them in non-point areas of the game, imo.

Is this one of those "quality work done by Jarmo this offseason to identify and bring in a player who can contribute" or "damn our good players suck" things?

 

[majormajor]

That's one situation where I think the current xG models are nearly useless. xGA can't be compared across teams. A system where a goalie has to face a lot of odd man rushes is much harder than what Korpi is dealing with. He's been good but up until his last start I don't think he had stolen any game.

Eric Robinson's breakaway goal the other day? .05 xG (5%) in both moneypuck and naturalstattrick's models. That's stupidly low. It has a location error, compounded by the fact that those models don't consider whether it's a breakaway! The location errors average out but the odd-man / breakaway /cross-ice pass issues don't average out.

 

[majormajor]

People need to chill.

We were on a 7 game point streak, would’ve been 8 games if not for the two brain farts by Elvis. It happens.

We don’t have the talent to open up offensively despite what some people say.

However, Laine might already be playing in the next game.

Everything is fine, good times ahead

Let's remember that the Jackets were a top ten 5v5 offense for three straight seasons until last year. Have we fallen that far in terms of talent?

Was it really just Bob standing on his head for that long that enabled us to play that crazy safe is death system? (possibly yes, he had to deal with a crazy number of odd man rushes).

These were the Jackets lines in the 2016-17 season, where the Jackets were near the top in 5v5 offense.

Foligno - Wennberg - Saad
Jenner - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Calvert - Karlsson - Anderson
Hartnell - Sedlak - Gagner

They were a relentless attacking team that year. And much more physical. I remember a lot of the nice passing plays they would make. It was nothing that involved insane hands in tight spaces, just taking advantage of the big seams that opponents would open up under intense pressure. Currently the opportunity to make plays is limited, we're not really pressuring much.

 

[Monk]

Foligno - Wennberg - Saad
Jenner - Dubinsky - Atkinson
Calvert - Karlsson - Anderson
Hartnell - Sedlak - Gagner

Ah yes, the good ol' days.

 

[majormajor]

Ah yes, the good ol' days.

I'm not sure what you mean. Maybe I should have prefaced those lines by saying that I don't think they were a particularly talented lineup, and I don't think our current group is much less talented if at all.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Is this one of those "quality work done by Jarmo this offseason to identify and bring in a player who can contribute" or "damn our good players suck" things?

Yes.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Yes.

Man, I was hoping you were gonna say that. You and me. You and me. Like this.

 

[Forepar]

Five points in eight games? Wow. Let’s just put him in the hall of fame now.

Correct response... Robinson had 2+2 after 9 games. I think you are spot on...Our issue is not any one player. Our issue is a lack of skill up front at so many spots.

Laine will help that, hopefully in a big way. They still need more; we will miss PLD in the middle as the year goes on, whether we want to admit it or not. If CBJ in the hunt at the trade deadline, maybe they find a C for the SC chase. If they are not in the hunt by the deadline, they eat the season and look more intently in earnest on finding a 1C longer-term. And of course, they will not be clearly in or out, they will be right on the bubble! In which case a short term C is NOT the answer, imo.

I keep reading comments "play the kids" - for the most part, they are, or have. Foudy, Robinson, Tex. Bemstrom had ample opportunity, didn't seize it, needs to percolate a while longer. Who else is in the pipleline (talking forwards here) that is not getting a chance? There are a few playing in Russia, but that doesn't help this year.

You can go down the list of who is "not meeting expectations:"

Cam, Foligno, Domi (there is half of the top-6 as now deployed). Add: Grigorenko, Nash (he is what he is), Bemstrom.

So 6 out of 13 are below grade

Jury Out: Koivu (maybe a help this season?), Roslovic (looks like he will be fine in middle 6, but too early). Neither lighting it up, just not enough health/games to fairly evaluate.

Playing well: Jenner, 3 kids referenced above, Bjorkstrand.

So 5 of 13 forwards are playing well. It's not so much W's or L's at the moment, although 1 game above the NHL median is not good enough. More importantly, we just aren't playing well and worse I have no expectation of improvement from Cam, Foligno, Grigerenko or Nash. I don't want to admit it, but even Cam has reached the point of "he is what he is." Whether its age, high ankle, other injuries, he seems to have lost a step (not speed as much as just quickness to the puck, quickness with the snipe). Domi may still find his niche; Bemstrom still green, so I hold out hope.

Add to that the Werenski/Jones funk (whatever it is). Not only are they not defending well, not moving the puck particularly well, they are adding zero to the offense at the same time. We have relied on D for overall play - and that is proving not to be reliable at the moment.

The 1C for the next few years is not in the room or anywhere on the CBJ roster at the moment, and it shows badly when Tex is away from Bjorky. Domi is not a 1C; I hope Torts realizes that. Not trashing him, just put him at 2C and let Domi find his footing with CONSISTENT linemates (there, I said it!). I'm not saying Tex is 100% ready for 1C, I don't believe he is. But he's the best we've got. So run with it; I don't think it will hurt his development but it may hurt his ego at times. I'm not for trading 3 or 8 until they get out of their funk - and then I won't want to trade them! Lol.

Thank goodness Korpi has been on his game. Elvis, if he'd quit playing D, actually has been Ok in net. Still want to see Korpi 2 out of every 3 games, but the compressed schedule may not allow that.

Somebody talk me down off the ledge. 4 days ago we were going to be the best team ever with Laine added to the mix. Two games in Chicago, going 1-1, and even I have CBJ going down the tubes.

 

[Monk]

I'm not sure what you mean. Maybe I should have prefaced those lines by saying that I don't think they were a particularly talented lineup, and I don't think our current group is much less talented if at all.

Mostly reflecting on the amount of bitching that happened re: that lineup. Most notably Wennberg. And how that contrasts with the info you're sharing.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Seriously have to bring this up. I have mentioned many times that this is another aspect of Elvis’ game that is not above average and that the perception of his ability is essentially from an outdated scouting report.

In the past, my “opinion” regarding our 2 different goalies and their ability to play the puck has been seen as more proof of my supposed bias, even though Elvis has NEVER shown any sort of special talent/ability, and has already had more terrible plays than some guys have in entire years or even careers.

Korpisalo > Merzlikins

We have a horse in net with a cooler name.

Every post is the same thing ... Elvis had better stats than Korpi last yr as a rookie . Korpi has looked great this year , Elvis has looked great lately until the mistakes last night . Not sure if your continual post are to point out how smart you are but honestly it’s ok if we have 2 good goalies. The jackets bigger problem is their system , and lack of offensive production, which most likely is a huge factor in to players wanting to play here ... but yes we know you love Korpisalo

 

[DJA]

Games like last night just completely suck all of the excitement and optimism out of even the sunniest fans. And there's been more than one already this season. Seems like we're going to put a lot on Laine's shoulders. I think he's more than capable of upping the excitement level and I still think this team is going to be in the mix for the playoffs but good lord, that was a pathetic display last night. Our division is already showing signs of a clear line of demarcation between the top and bottom 4 teams and we need to get on the right side, quickly.

 

[ViD]

Cam has 30 points in 54 games since Panarin departure and only 13 are goals.

 

[Monstershockey]

Every post is the same thing ... Elvis had better stats than Korpi last yr as a rookie . Korpi has looked great this year , Elvis has looked great lately until the mistakes last night . Not sure if your continual post are to point out how smart you are but honestly it’s ok if we have 2 good goalies. The jackets bigger problem is their system , and lack of offensive production, which most likely is a huge factor in to players wanting to play here ... but yes we know you love Korpisalo

Speaking of posting the same thing all the time. Last years stats were last year. Korpisalo had a better win-loss record, which is really all that matters. Oh yeah, Torts has only had one top ten PP in his career.

 

[tchigo]

Robinson-Tex-Cam to start?

OK...

This makes no sense to me. Why would Tort shuffle the lines? I mean, guys need to get used to their line-mates to improve the way they play together. What is the idea here, give Cam more minutes?

Poor game by Merzlikins.

 

[rotsbu]

Bookker, I know you're going for Patty and Rossy playing together since they were both on the Jets together, but 1.) they rarely played together there and 2.) Rossy looks like a center so far - in fact, I think he'll displace Domi before this season is over.

Was thinking about your second point while lifting today. I think it would be really good if we could have 4 players function as competent centers besides Max, so Max could play wing. I optimistically think that's a possibility with the progression of Tex, the addition of Rossy, Nash , Koivu, and Stenlund on the roster, and guys like Fligs and Jenner having experience at C. That's by no means a murder's row down the middle, but if it got Max going at wing, I think it'd be a good tradeoff.

 

[thebus88]

We’ve made it!! Numbers don’t lie!!

Korpisalo > everybody

PUT THE DUDE IN NET TORTS

If only he was given a chance sooner.

 

[thebus88]

That's one situation where I think the current xG models are nearly useless. xGA can't be compared across teams. A system where a goalie has to face a lot of odd man rushes is much harder than what Korpi is dealing with. He's been good but up until his last start I don't think he had stolen any game.

Eric Robinson's breakaway goal the other day? .05 xG (5%) in both moneypuck and naturalstattrick's models. That's stupidly low. It has a location error, compounded by the fact that those models don't consider whether it's a breakaway! The location errors average out but the odd-man / breakaway /cross-ice pass issues don't average out.

As has been noted, ALL of these numbers/“statistics” are made up. Created by more made up “models”. The errors are all over.

I find your change of opinion on how important or how much you can take away from these numbers fascinating when it comes to Korpisalo.

I specifically remember you claiming Bobrovsky was “more valuable” to the CBJ than Tavares was, to I believe the NYI.

I’m fairly certain you used these exact types of numbers in your “equation”.

 

[thebus88]

Also, any talk regarding moving Jones should make it ‘ok’ to talk about moving the lesser player in Werenski.

With all the problems the team has, do people really think removing Jones will help??

Winning 3-2 is no worse than winning 5-4.

And LOSING 5-4 IS WORSE even if the team scores an extra 80 times a year and a few guys stats look better.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

We’ve made it!! Numbers don’t lie!!

Korpisalo > everybody

PUT THE DUDE IN NET TORTS

If only he was given a chance sooner.

Sustain the unsustainable!!

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Also, any talk regarding moving Jones should make it ‘ok’ to talk about moving the lesser player in Werenski.

With all the problems the team has, do people really think removing Jones will help??

Winning 3-2 is no worse than winning 5-4.

And LOSING 5-4 IS WORSE even if the team scores an extra 80 times a year and a few guys stats look better.

or just don’t trade either

 

[DarkandStormy]

Cam has 30 points in 54 games since Panarin departure and only 13 are goals.

Turning 30 will turn some guys into pumpkins on the ice.

 

[DarkandStormy]

or just don’t trade either

We will have to - either salary cap reasons or whatever reasons PLD left -> see Pat Brisson's comments last week. If this team continues to employ Tortorella, the chance we keep 8 & 3 past next year is almost zero.

 

[ViD]

Also, any talk regarding moving Jones should make it ‘ok’ to talk about moving the lesser player in Werenski.

With all the problems the team has, do people really think removing Jones will help??

Winning 3-2 is no worse than winning 5-4.

And LOSING 5-4 IS WORSE even if the team scores an extra 80 times a year and a few guys stats look better.

Jones is a UFA in two years, Werenski is RFA. We have more years of control with Zach so if there’s any indication that Jones is hesitant to re-sign, he should be traded

 

[KJ Dangler]

All this talk about Jones or Werenski not wanting to be here because they have the same agent as PLD is silly . A good agent , will try to get the best deal for his client , but he’s going to listen to what’s important to them , not tell them what they should do . From all accounts it’s a tight locker room . Yes their start hasn’t been ideal , but neither has been rumored to remotely being unhappy .

 

[DarkandStormy]

We’ve made it!! Numbers don’t lie!!

Korpisalo > everybody

PUT THE DUDE IN NET TORTS

As has been noted, ALL of these numbers/“statistics” are made up. Created by more made up “models”. The errors are all over.

This is art.