GDT: Game 1 | Jackets at Canes | 7 PM | PNC Arena

[DarkandStormy]

First off, the Home team does stats so what is considered an "attempt" Is it just an attempted shot?

Secondly, he had 20 minutes of ice time tonight, they got one "attempt rought every 30 seconds he was on the ice. How does that compare to others because this team folded 1/2 way through the game.

If this shift chart is accurate, he was just coming onto the ice as every goal was scored except the finals 4-1 goal which looks like it came at the end of a long shift on a PK

ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization

www.shiftchart.com

Well, lots of mix ups here.

-Shot attempts aka "Corsi" - this is any shot attempt, whether or not it's blocked or even hits the goalie. Some people don't like this as some scorers count dump ins as a "shot attempt." It's a loose effort to gauge possession.
-Unblocked shot attempts aka "Fenwick" - shots towards the goal that were not blocked. This is, perhaps, a better measure of what a goalie actually faces, though I believe it does count shots that are unblocked but high or wide.
-Shots on goal - your traditional shot number. Pucks that hit the goalie or go in for a goal. This total will always equal an opposing goalie's # of saves + goals scored, I think.

So in the tweet in question - Gudbranson was on the ice for 44 Corsi attempts against (at 5v5) while on the ice, but at the same time the Jackets only had 12 Corsi attempts.

Also, incorrect on the shift chart - it just means Gudbranson was on the ice for the faceoff after those Canes goals.

 

[Youngguns80]

Sorry everyone it's game 1 calm down - if the opponent was the Coyotes, this would be a different story. They were thrown a curveball with the Laine injury and the lines went into the blender. That point blank was the defining moment. The only exception I take is most of the team went into the fetal position and kinda accepted the loss after the 2nd period. That is my takeaway from this game, that is the part I didn't like. I would have felt better if they fought all the way to the end.

I am not making excuses and I am not settling for mediocrity so I expect a much better effort on opening night. If they crater again in the 3rd period against some adversity then this starts to become a trend to start to monitor and worry about.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Well, lots of mix ups here.

-Shot attempts aka "Corsi" - this is any shot attempt, whether or not it's blocked or even hits the goalie. Some people don't like this as some scorers count dump ins as a "shot attempt." It's a loose effort to gauge possession.
-Unblocked shot attempts aka "Fenwick" - shots towards the goal that were not blocked. This is, perhaps, a better measure of what a goalie actually faces, though I believe it does count shots that are unblocked but high or wide.
-Shots on goal - your traditional shot number. Pucks that hit the goalie or go in for a goal. This total will always equal an opposing goalie's # of saves + goals scored, I think.

So in the tweet in question - Gudbranson was on the ice for 44 Corsi attempts against (at 5v5) while on the ice, but at the same time the Jackets only had 12 Corsi attempts.

Also, incorrect on the shift chart - it just means Gudbranson was on the ice for the faceoff after those Canes goals.

I assumed he came onto the ice for the faceoff after the goals. He was -1 on those 44 shot attempts. He was also paired with Bean most of the night. The forward pairings were all over the place so what was the corsi rating for the rest of the team? I assume Bean's was just as bad too but the choice was made to single out Gudbranson in the original tweet.

I get that everyone wants to make him the whipping boy after 1 game but its real easy for someone to selectively post stats without full context. I just want to understand the bigger picture because the whole team was bad. Clearly a low Corsi rating means we didn't possess the puck nearly as much as Carolina and that stat should look bad for everybody.

 

[CBJ goalie]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

 

[VT]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

Tarasov is a young player who didn't play some months. Besides, he saved 39 from 43 canes shots.

 

[JacketFanInFL]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

+ In both cases no actual look at the turnovers, uncovered opponents in high percentage scoring areas, odd man rushes as a result of poor backchecking/turnovers.

Let's look at every goal against:
1. Jarvis -
Terrible turnover "Blind Pass" to nobody behind your own net by Roslovic. Gavrikov in no-mans land. Jarvis skates uncontested for an easy goal in high-percentage area.

2. Skjei -
Starts as an odd-man rush. Players rushing back, forget to cover the point + screen the goalie. 3 CBJ players covering 2 CAR players down low, clogging the front of the net. Point guys wide open.

3. Necas -
Voracek egregious/lazy turnover in front of his own net. Doesn't even bother to cover the guy who picks his pocket in high percentage scoring area. Gavrikov with bad attempt to clear/pass in front of his own net. Voracek whines to referee after getting absolutely schooled. An embarrassing sequence.

4. Svechnikov -
On Tarasov. He was screened, but that went 5-hole from a terrible angle. Should be covered by defauly.

 

[Marioesque]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

I wouldn't put those on Elvis either. Except the last one.

 

[Marioesque]

3. Necas -
Voracek egregious/lazy turnover in front of his own net. Doesn't even bother to cover the guy who picks his pocket in high percentage scoring area. Gavrikov with bad attempt to clear/pass in front of his own net. Voracek whines to referee after getting absolutely schooled. An embarrassing sequence.

Jake must have been embarrassed himself and thought the whining would salvage something. It did not. Made it even worse. Him and Jack were horrid all game

 

[tunnelvision]

Goals by Jarvis and Necas are on Tarasov at least partially.

On the first goal he sees the play develop at the side of net without any kind of disturbance, goes for a pokecheck but misses which open enough room on the blocker side.

Jackets defense doesn't help him a lot on the Necas goal but he does give up a rebound and doesn't get back on the crease fast enough after the first shot. Whenever 6'5 tall goalie lets in an along-the-ice goal it's usually due to non-ideal positioning.

 

[Columbus Jack]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

You're right. Elvis would have given up 4 and then would have been pulled midway through the 2nd.

 

[wabagee]

I assumed he came onto the ice for the faceoff after the goals. He was -1 on those 44 shot attempts. He was also paired with Bean most of the night. The forward pairings were all over the place so what was the corsi rating for the rest of the team? I assume Bean's was just as bad too but the choice was made to single out Gudbranson in the original tweet.

I get that everyone wants to make him the whipping boy after 1 game but its real easy for someone to selectively post stats without full context. I just want to understand the bigger picture because the whole team was bad. Clearly a low Corsi rating means we didn't possess the puck nearly as much as Carolina and that stat should look bad for everybody.

It’s obvious the guy was looking for numbers to shit on him, which is easy when the whole team was bad. Even then he sure picked some obscure stat.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

+ In both cases no actual look at the turnovers, uncovered opponents in high percentage scoring areas, odd man rushes as a result of poor backchecking/turnovers.

Let's look at every goal against:
1. Jarvis -
Terrible turnover "Blind Pass" to nobody behind your own net by Roslovic. Gavrikov in no-mans land. Jarvis skates uncontested for an easy goal in high-percentage area.

2. Skjei -
Starts as an odd-man rush. Players rushing back, forget to cover the point + screen the goalie. 3 CBJ players covering 2 CAR players down low, clogging the front of the net. Point guys wide open.

3. Necas -
Voracek egregious/lazy turnover in front of his own net. Doesn't even bother to cover the guy who picks his pocket in high percentage scoring area. Gavrikov with bad attempt to clear/pass in front of his own net. Voracek whines to referee after getting absolutely schooled. An embarrassing sequence.

4. Svechnikov -
On Tarasov. He was screened, but that went 5-hole from a terrible angle. Should be covered by defauly.

I feel like this was a common trend last year too. Forwards committing undisciplined turnovers deep in the offensive zone leading to goals.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I assumed he came onto the ice for the faceoff after the goals. He was -1 on those 44 shot attempts. He was also paired with Bean most of the night. The forward pairings were all over the place so what was the corsi rating for the rest of the team? I assume Bean's was just as bad too but the choice was made to single out Gudbranson in the original tweet.

I get that everyone wants to make him the whipping boy after 1 game but its real easy for someone to selectively post stats without full context. I just want to understand the bigger picture because the whole team was bad. Clearly a low Corsi rating means we didn't possess the puck nearly as much as Carolina and that stat should look bad for everybody.

Yeah, I guess technically he was on the ice for one of the goals. But on the shift chart, it's not really "coming onto the ice" - time stops at the goal, so whoever is out for the next faceoff, it just looks like an abrupt start.

Gudbranson was uniquely bad last night among the team. I'd also say Eric Robinson as well (high event - lots of shots for and against in a small amount of TOI), and of course Roslovic and Kuraly stick out as well. Again, Corsi attempts don't tell you everything and they leave out a lot of context (quality of shots, does a shot happen as you're coming onto/off the ice, etc.).

On a per 60 minute basis, Gudbranson was bad as well, worst Dman on the team. You are also correct that Bean did not play well either.

Natural Stat Trick tries to quantify the amount of "expected" goals - almost every analytics site does this now, with varying models. Gudbranson, again, was worst on the team on the blue line.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Gudbranson was absolutely fine last night.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Yeah, I guess technically he was on the ice for one of the goals. But on the shift chart, it's not really "coming onto the ice" - time stops at the goal, so whoever is out for the next faceoff, it just looks like an abrupt start.

View attachment 593551

Gudbranson was uniquely bad last night among the team. I'd also say Eric Robinson as well (high event - lots of shots for and against in a small amount of TOI), and of course Roslovic and Kuraly stick out as well. Again, Corsi attempts don't tell you everything and they leave out a lot of context (quality of shots, does a shot happen as you're coming onto/off the ice, etc.).

View attachment 593552

On a per 60 minute basis, Gudbranson was bad as well, worst Dman on the team. You are also correct that Bean did not play well either.

View attachment 593554

Natural Stat Trick tries to quantify the amount of "expected" goals - almost every analytics site does this now, with varying models. Gudbranson, again, was worst on the team on the blue line.

Coincidentally, most of his ice time tended to be with the 3rd and 4th lines on the ice. Look at the Roslovic, Kuraly, Robinson, Olivier numbers as well

It was a team suck and not fair to pin it on 1 defenseman at this point. They all deserve credit for what happen the last 60 minutes of that game.

I'm not a Gudbranson fan boy but I know most people here have a negative perception of him before the season even started. I just don't think its fair after 1 game single him out and these other guys get a pass.

 

[CBJ goalie]

Tarasov is a young player who didn't play some months. Besides, he saved 39 from 43 canes shots.

Elvis is only 28, and only has 120 games under his belt.
Last season was his true first season as a #1.

 

[Marioesque]

Elvis is only 28, and only has 120 games under his belt.
Last season was his true first season as a #1.

There is also a difference between expectations of $5.25 million and $750,000

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Gudbranson was absolutely fine last night.

There was some good and some bad. He's not skilled and doesn't carry the puck, but he's fine-to-good down low and is solid defending the rush.

He had some good moments. He also made mistakes. His mistakes weren't nearly as bad as what we saw out of Werenski and Roslovic last night, though. The whole team stunk, Gudbranson's role makes him an easier punching bag if you watch the game on a spreadsheet.

Point to shot attempts for/against is flawed because he's one of ten skaters out there. Even looking at his performance relative to teammates can be skewed because he is pretty much only deployed in the d-zone and for tough assignments.

 

[Monstershockey]

Elvis is only 28, and only has 120 games under his belt.
Last season was his true first season as a #1.

I think that is kind of the problem. Being 28 and only having 3 seasons under his belt. For comparison, Saros is 27 going into his 8th NHL season. Although this is only his 2nd season as a starter, he has 5 years of solid NHL experience in which he played 20 or more games. Elvis should have been over here sooner.

 

[VT]

Elvis is only 28, and only has 120 games under his belt.
Last season was his true first season as a #1.

Tarasov is 23, played only 5 games (include the last) in NHL. Didn't play from either February or March in official games. It's 7-8 months.

 

[JacketFanInFL]

Goals by Jarvis and Necas are on Tarasov at least partially.

On the first goal he sees the play develop at the side of net without any kind of disturbance, goes for a pokecheck but misses which open enough room on the blocker side.

Jackets defense doesn't help him a lot on the Necas goal but he does give up a rebound and doesn't get back on the crease fast enough after the first shot. Whenever 6'5 tall goalie lets in an along-the-ice goal it's usually due to non-ideal positioning.

This fanbase was spoiled by Bobrovsky and posts like these show it.

He saved a lot of these type goals that nobody else can. He stole games no other goalie could possibly steal. Bob isn't walking through our tunnel anytime soon so we have to do what everyone else does - play sound defense and don't turn the puck over carelessly. Or we can be like Edmonton and just try to outscore everybody.

 

[tunnelvision]

This fanbase was spoiled by Bobrovsky and posts like these show it.

He saved a lot of these type goals that nobody else can. He stole games no other goalie could possibly steal. Bob isn't walking through our tunnel anytime soon so we have to do what everyone else does - play sound defense and don't turn the puck over carelessly. Or we can be like Edmonton and just try to outscore everybody.

Rookie goalie playing well and exceeding expectations in a single game doesn't make him some kind of sacred cow whose mistakes are a forbidden topic here.

I hope you're aware that I never said Tarasov was bad last night or that I demanded him to play like Bob in his prime years.

 

[Monstershockey]

As good as Tarasov has been in some games, he has also been pretty bad too. Only 6 of his 17 games in Cleveland he posted a better than .900 save percentage. He hasn't played near enough games to develop any kind of consistency to be accurately measured. He is most definitely a work in progress. Hopefully Korpisalo gets healthy enough to be the backup so Tarasov can get consistent work in Cleveland. Not sure how many games he would get in Columbus if Elvis plays well and Tarasov's starts become very limited.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

I’m convinced if the jackets were 5 seconds away from winning the cup, the world would literally end.

In other words, the Blue Jackets and their fans are keeping the world safe! I rather like that, at least there's a purpose to our suffering.

I couldn't partake in this thread due to work, but I managed to catch the first and second period (sort of). My experience seemed to mirror the team's fighting spirit - I gave up after the second period (and went to bed dead tired, I have excuses). Just too much to take with Laine injury, overturned awesome goal, and then that 2-1 sequence. I thought the team looked crushed when they exited the period, the writing was on the wall...

Like others have mentioned, it's tough to be a fan. I'm not sure it's exclusive to CBJ but there's definitely those moments that fans notice and lament more than the casual viewer. For me it was two: 1) Sillinger doing Sillinger things and then Toronto doing Toronto things (I think we should just accept that we'll have to score 10 offside goals per season, so at least we're one down now), 2) Danforth can't finish up close in those situations - many similar scenes happened last year.

That said, if we can discount the third period, then it wasn't that bad. I think we can build on the mental toughness (only need to look at last year's comebacks, that helps I hope).

Laine's injury is also an opportunity to try out different players with Gaudreau, and bring Johnson back. We should have some depth to offset the injury, even if Laine has been playing great and will be a welcome addition when he's healthy again. PP also could try out new things now that they can't use Laine (maybe it opens up some ideas that work better or can be used to bring variety).

Sucks that the schedule is pretty tough to begin the season though. We play CAR, TBL, STL, VAN, NSH, PIT and NYR before Arizona, could easily be 0-7-0 until that game and not necessarily an "all is lost" situation... but hopefully we can carve out a couple of wins and then win Arizona and get going. I hope we can show enough to Gaudreau that he doesn't give up yet but instead gets encouraged about the future (which he already should be, but a bad start can have a knock-on effect).

Also I thought Nyquist looked good in the first period, some sneaky passes and I mistook him for some of the younger, faster guys until I saw the number properly. That's my positive take on the game.

 

[NotWendell]

So Tarasov (whom I like, don't get me wrong) gives up 4 but he's lauded and fellated and praised.
If that was Elvis in net letting in those same 4, he'd be torn to shreds in this GDT.

Watch the game and you'll know why. The 4th goal was all on him.