GDT: G8: Aisles vs Nick-less Capstroms - 7:08pm EST

PlushMinus

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Nov 18, 2021
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Oh thanks for informing us on that. I didn't realize teams don't have to finish the regular season and play in the playoffs to find that out! :rolleyes:


Actually no. How teams play at the start of next year is more indicative of where teams are.

Jeez Professor Net-Nerd, you are being a bit rude to people tonight!
 
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trick9

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Jun 2, 2013
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lataa.png
 
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Empty Goal Net

Do I see another GOAT?
Feb 13, 2010
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For many of the guys looking like questionable/fringe NHLers (like Philips and HHA) or whose play suggests significantly declining skills (almost all the vets), the effects of a few good plays can radically change how observers (and at least some of the stats) view them. If Osh does not get called for GI, he gets a goal and a couple of his teammates get apples. If whoever - maybe Sandin, Jensen or Philips - gains the line and threads a pass to a forward who doesn't shoot wide or into a defender, then the Caps are only down one goal. They may nonetheless lose the game, but the overall result is more tolerable.

I don't think this group is close to a Top 3 in the division finish; I'm not even sure they're going to compete for a wildcard spot. And the warts we're seeing now may not disappear even after they have more time to gel. It's nice to say you make your own luck - there's at least some truth to that, but there's also actual luck, and the Caps are not seeing much of that so far this season. We'll know alot more about this team by the end of the month.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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One of the biggest issues is they haven't really added anyone that aligns with how Carbery wants to play. McMichael is showing some elements now and then in terms of craftiness but it's a work in progress. They're capable of playing a fairly sound (albeit bland) game minus a propensity for self-inflicted breakdowns. But the roster hasn't been shaped at all in the direction they've chosen. It's just been a lot of pretty generic plugs added on the cheap. While maybe they can shake things up at some point I'm not sure I expect that fitness question to necessarily be remedied. They don't seem to be able to craft the roster to that extent for whatever reason.

In terms of playing very direct, downhill, funneling to the net and attacking to get interior there's already evident dissatisfaction from Carbery and it's easy to see why. Their structure without the puck often enables them to have possession but they're not dangerous enough with it (in a good way). They're often cute, often perimeter and unable to change lanes and angles to be a real handful. I thought the fourth line did well earlier in the game to draw a couple penalties. Protas was rewarded with easily the most TOI this season for him but Malenstyn also should have played more as that's an opponent he's suited for. Bench management generally hasn't been great either.

There also should be dissatisfaction with special teams play where the PP is bottom five and PK below average. Lineup decisions need to reflect that sense pretty soon. They're limited in probably not being able to minimize Oshie's role if he can't produce but at least they should consider depth alternatives (whether that's already Miro getting a shot or someone like Dube/NAK).

Ultimately I think they're more likely a bottom ten team than a wild card team (or better). Not enough clicks at a breakthrough level to expect the consistency needed to go on a sustained run. It's a tough league and athletically I don't think they've done nearly enough yet to tailor this roster on any substantive level.
 
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trick9

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Jun 2, 2013
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This propably tells how much of a competition our conference rivals keep us:

Goalie starts against us:

Isles - backup
Devils - backup (pulled)
Leafs - starter (no idea if Woll had won the job before that game)
Habs - Starter/backup (they both play the same)
Sens - backup

Isles and Sens both are teams fighting hard for the last Playoff spots. Neither of these situations were a back-to-back one, both actually had several days off before.
 

trick9

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Jun 2, 2013
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It is indeed remarkable that they've managed to grab 9 points in 9 games. 6 of which they've played at home.

Their big win is against the Devils. That was a really good win and they bounced back well despite the devastating 2nd period. Other than that?

Shutout by bubble team (Isles)
Shutout by non-Playoff team (Pens)
4-1 loss against a top-team (Leafs)
6-1 loss against a non-Playoff team (Sens)

Their points have come from (other than the Devils win):

Shoot-out win at home against a bubble team (Wild)
Shoot-out win at home against a non-Playoff team/bottom feeder (Flames)
Win against a team who have... 0 wins (Sharks)
Shoot-out loss against a bottom feeder (Habs)

We have the worst goal differential (-10) in the East, despite a butter soft schedule to begin with. 5 in a row (already lost the first) against Eastern teams in the Playoff race. If this run goes sideways then it's going to be a really long season. After the next 2 games we have played 8 of our 11 games at home.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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It happened tonight a couple times. And it does stand out in the sense that it isn't something you often see for very long to that degree when the player is also unproductive offensively. His job is the lightest on the ice defensively. His overall battle success level doesn't look to be NHL quality, though, and his overall tools are fringe. In the pre-season he was alright causing disruption now and then but it's waning lately. He hasn't been all that visible as a forechecker either. A more stout checking team like NYI is a tough match-up for him. He played basically fourth line minutes tonight and overall he's trending more toward being outside of the top nine than in. Mantha has seemingly jumped him. Even Protas seems to be trusted more.

This is likely a difficult environment for any fringe player compared to the heydays when there were much more favorable team headwinds and easier self-confidence. That said, it also helps when fringe players have average to above average physical tools and many of their bargain bin finds don't possess them. Shrug.

They probably deserved this game to be closer on the scoreboard but overall it's hard to believe they'll have enough separation ability. They're bottom five in ROW early on. Some of their underlying play has promising elements but it remains a group lacking killer instinct. Burning through any opened up boatload of cap space to mask that seems counter-productive ultimately. They still need to be in a subtraction/assessment mindset and part of that is becoming more selective and forward-thinking than they've been for a while.

I guess I'm not seeing how your description above doesn't apply to like every player on the Capitals!

At least under the hood Phillips tends to drive the puck into the offensive zone. He produces at a decent level given his minutes. He has been getting PP time and even in those minutes he's helping produce chances:

1699025590577.png


The sample is small, so things can turn around. But I struggle to discount these numbers completely simply because he got pushed off the puck once and it looked bad. Everyone in the forward rank has been pretty bad this year minus...Strome and McMichael?
 
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Langway

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Phillips is practicing on the fourth line today. So, yeah, not great. The slippage is real and the underlyings won't save him if there's no production.

Again, it's early but after SJS/CGY/CHI it seems like a pretty wide open race to the bottom of the standings. I'd tend to put WSH right about on par with the likes of NSH, STL, PIT, CBJ, PHI & MTL. The later three are on the younger side and it comes with a different set of expectations. They can basically just go out and play. Whereas especially for PIT & WSH there's much more urgency at work...more desperation to cling to the idea they've still got it. ANA/ARI are also probably not far off from that group either but have also added some quality young swagger. There's a kind of fun factor with a lot of these younger teams that's pretty close to a 180 compared to the sort of burdensome grind of living up to expectations more grizzled teams like the Caps and Pens are saddled with. Finding some ways of injecting youthful enthusiasm is a pretty big key IMO, hence why I'd consider calling up Miro before long. They desperately need more capable transitional promise at work.

While the Caps may deserve a bit of a better fate so far (as said) they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row. And over the grind of the season you wonder if they won't deal with more than their fair share of injuries due to being older. For me this season is mostly about investing in McMichael, HHA, Malenstyn, Protas and eventually hopefully Miro. And generally working toward aligning personnel moves in a way more tailored to how Carbery wants to play. They're going to need to stack a lot of little victories to turn the tide and if they can't execute with that level of alignment and finesse there's likely more trouble ahead.

Maybe at some point they'll have a load of cap space at their disposal but I'd be very wary of assuming it's going to translate into subtantial improvement. There are a lot of downside risks over time with most UFA investments...and the trade market may not be that much more enticing. I get the obligation to Ovechkin to remain competitive but the best way to live up to that is to more honestly grasp the degree of help needed to firmly tip the scales in the other direction. That doesn't tend to come from quick fixes and you've got to wonder how aggressive they should be with futures just to essentially remain in the same basic stage.

They should just sit back, see how it goes, really work on achieving a cohesive shared vision as to next steps and be prepared to tear it back further if this group doesn't show enough promise. Trading Orlov when they were at least somewhat close to still being a bubble team last year does suggest a resistance to continuing to go scorched earth merely to stay in the mid-range. So I think there are more options that they're open to and realistically they should be equally (if not moreso) open to paring back than building up depending on how they perform.
 

bacchist

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Feb 7, 2013
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Phillips is practicing on the fourth line today. So, yeah, not great. The slippage is real and the underlyings won't save him if there's no production.

Again, it's early but after SJS/CGY/CHI it seems like a pretty wide open race to the bottom of the standings. I'd tend to put WSH right about on par with the likes of NSH, STL, PIT, CBJ, PHI & MTL. The later three are on the younger side and it comes with a different set of expectations. They can basically just go out and play. Whereas especially for PIT & WSH there's much more urgency at work...more desperation to cling to the idea they've still got it. ANA/ARI are also probably not far off from that group either but have also added some quality young swagger. There's a kind of fun factor with a lot of these younger teams that's pretty close to a 180 compared to the sort of burdensome grind of living up to expectations more grizzled teams like the Caps and Pens are saddled with. Finding some ways of injecting youthful enthusiasm is a pretty big key IMO, hence why I'd consider calling up Miro before long. They desperately need more capable transitional promise at work.

While the Caps may deserve a bit of a better fate so far (as said) they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row. And over the grind of the season you wonder if they won't deal with more than their fair share of injuries due to being older. For me this season is mostly about investing in McMichael, HHA, Malenstyn, Protas and eventually hopefully Miro. And generally working toward aligning personnel moves in a way more tailored to how Carbery wants to play. They're going to need to stack a lot of little victories to turn the tide and if they can't execute with that level of alignment and finesse there's likely more trouble ahead.

Maybe at some point they'll have a load of cap space at their disposal but I'd be very wary of assuming it's going to translate into subtantial improvement. There are a lot of downside risks over time with most UFA investments...and the trade market may not be that much more enticing. I get the obligation to Ovechkin to remain competitive but the best way to live up to that is to more honestly grasp the degree of help needed to firmly tip the scales in the other direction. That doesn't tend to come from quick fixes and you've got to wonder how aggressive they should be with futures just to essentially remain in the same basic stage.

They should just sit back, see how it goes, really work on achieving a cohesive shared vision as to next steps and be prepared to tear it back further if this group doesn't show enough promise. Trading Orlov when they were at least somewhat close to still being a bubble team last year does suggest a resistance to continuing to go scorched earth merely to stay in the mid-range. So I think there are more options that they're open to and realistically they should be equally (if not moreso) open to paring back than building up depending on how they perform.
I'm really not sure PIT belongs with the other teams on that list (including us). The underlying metrics all point to them being a good team. Some weakness on special teams, but xGoals % 5 on 5 is best in the league by a good margin. Even when factoring in the sub-par special teams, they're 2nd in the league in xGoals % in all situations. I'd be surprised if they missed the playoffs, even after this slow start.
 

PlushMinus

Registered User
Nov 18, 2021
1,578
1,641
This propably tells how much of a competition our conference rivals keep us:

Goalie starts against us:

Isles - backup
Devils - backup (pulled)
Leafs - starter (no idea if Woll had won the job before that game)
Habs - Starter/backup (they both play the same)
Sens - backup

Isles and Sens both are teams fighting hard for the last Playoff spots. Neither of these situations were a back-to-back one, both actually had several days off before.
I have already made similar observations but our resident goalie expert assures me there is "nothing to see here" :laugh:

The reality is this: Sorokin was well rested after his game against Detroit 3 nights earlier and IF the Isles had been playing, say, Boston you can bet your ass he would have been in goal. They chose Varlamov for a reason.

As for the Leafs, Woll isn't their starter (yet, but we all know what Sammy is capable of!). My personal opinion is that they kept Samsonov out because he is struggling with his form and they didn't want to risk starting him against the Caps at Capital One in case things turned ugly and it hurt his confidence even more. I'd say it was a smart move by the Leafs.
 

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