Confirmed with Link: G Ilya Samsonov heads to arbitration (Awarded 1 year, $3.55M)

[Divine]

Thoughts on his next contract?

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[ACC1224]

Shocking.
It’ll never get to arbitration

 

[A1LeafNation]

Not even a big deal. We have bigger fish to fry.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Honestly it’s better for us because now we have a second buyout window in case we wanna go that route with Murray.

 

[ACC1224]

Honestly it’s better for us because now we have a second buyout window in case we wanna go that route with Murray.

All part of the plan.

 

[LastOne2100]

Best case scenario. We might need that second buyout window for a Murray buyout if we can't find any takers.

 

[Squiffy]

Honestly it’s better for us because now we have a second buyout window in case we wanna go that route with Murray.

That’s what I came here for, got beat to it.

 

[nuck]

Best case scenario. We might need that second buyout window for a Murray buyout if we can't find any takers.

They can always deal Sami's rights and then run it back with Murray and Woll. Then try to find another goalie on the fly when Murray goes down. Maybe get Alex Stalock on a $1M one way deal as some insurance first. Not what I would do but it depends on how badly they don't want the buyout cost and how much faith they have in Woll. Tre doesn't know him at all..

 

[Michoulicious]

Thoughts on his next contract?

2nd Buyout window incoming. Bubye Murray

 

[PromisedLand]

 

[Antropovsky]

They can always deal Sami's rights and then run it back with Murray and Woll. Then try to find another goalie on the fly when Murray goes down. Maybe get Alex Stalock on a $1M one way deal as some insurance first. Not what I would do but it depends on how badly they don't want the buyout cost.

I'm not too attached to Samsonov myself. I'd rather play it safe with Murray's contract expiring next year then pay Samsonov long term after a decent year where he also looked shaky. I'm pretty confident Woll will establish himself as the number one by next season. So it would be either hope Samsonov doesn't fumble and become difficult to move (see Campbell) or best case, we get an asset for him if he's still playing good. I think cap space is more important than the asset at this point. Obviously the concerning part is whether Murray can stay healthy, and that's something the leafs have doctors to figure out and obviously something that would play into the decision, but we don't have that background info.

 

[phillipmike]

What’s a realistic arbitration number for Samsonov to file?

 

[Mentat]

Obviously the concerning part is whether Murray can stay healthy,

It´s a very obvious and well documented no. He cannot.
Murray needs to be shipped somewhere or, worst case scenario, bought out.
And that´s why Sammy´s decision is good for us. Unless he wants huge term, i´m fine with having him at a reasonable price for 2 or 3 more years. I´d rather have a better goalie, but we have no cap for that right now, bar some unforseen miracle.

 

[mapleleafs34]

Might be a stupid question but if it does end up going to arbitration, it's guaranteed to be a 1 year deal right?

 

[Divine]

Might be a stupid question but if it does end up going to arbitration, it's guaranteed to be a 1 year deal right?

Yeah. Usually the rule is the party opposite to the party that filed gets to pick the term (1 or 2 years). However, since arbitration only works for RFA years and Samsonov only has 1 RFA year left, it will automatically be 1 year if it is an arbitration ruling.

 

[Sun God Nika]

What’s a realistic arbitration number for Samsonov to file?

4.

 

[Hellcat]

Thoughts on his next contract?

Step one to allowing the Leafs to buy out Murray in the second buyout window.

 

[Jmo89]

Best case scenario. We might need that second buyout window for a Murray buyout if we can't find any takers.

It's been a strange offseason. I hope they don't give up too much to unload Murray.

I know they have a bigger cap crunch next season, but if they're keeping Nylander I think they're actually more likely to buyout Murray (If they can't trade him for cheap.) The cap bump will cover Matthews and Nylander raises, and I think they'll just let Brodie walk and take a step back for a year until JT expires.

If they trade Nylander they can probably absorb Murray for this season and not have a crunch next season.

 

[Drytoast]

allows them another window to buyout Murray

 

[Mess]

They can always deal Sami's rights and then run it back with Murray and Woll. Then try to find another goalie on the fly when Murray goes down. Maybe get Alex Stalock on a $1M one way deal as some insurance first. Not what I would do but it depends on how badly they don't want the buyout cost and how much faith they have in Woll. Tre doesn't know him at all..

Actually as per CBA rules (IIRC) now that Sammy has filed for Arbitration the Leafs can no longer deal him away.

- Leafs options are come to contract terms prior to the hearing and the award.
- Accept the Arbitration award and then make other roster changes to become Cup complaint.
- Walk away from the Arb reward if it is too high, making Sammy a UFA immediately, and Leafs go with Woll and Murray as their goalies next year.

 

[joepeps]

They can always deal Sami's rights and then run it back with Murray and Woll. Then try to find another goalie on the fly when Murray goes down. Maybe get Alex Stalock on a $1M one way deal as some insurance first. Not what I would do but it depends on how badly they don't want the buyout cost and how much faith they have in Woll. Tre doesn't know him at all..

can't they just not sign Samsonov unitl the season starts when MM goes on LTIR.... still need to trade Muzzin I think

 

[nuck]

can't they just not sign Samsonov unitl the season starts when MM goes on LTIR.... still need to trade Muzzin I think

Murray was game ready in the playoffs so they would have to wait until he gets hurt again in actual play which could be be 20 games in. And Samsonov wants a deal, either with the Leafs or another club long before then. I expect Muzz will retire.

 

[Mess]

allows them another window to buyout Murray

While that is true its not all wine and roses outcome.

A Murray buyout comes with a 2023-24 cap hit of $687,500, & 2024-25 cap hit and dead cap space of $ $2,000,000.

The problem here is that Matthews and Nylander's new contracts and raises (still unknown) kick in 2024-25 and while the Salary Cap is expected to increase by $4 mil that year, it would be offset in 1/2 by a Murray $2 mil dead space buyout.

 

[nuck]

Actually as per CBA rules (IIRC) now that Sammy has filed for Arbitration the Leafs can no longer deal him away.

- Leafs options are come to contract terms prior to the hearing and the award.
- Accept the Arbitration award and then make other roster changes to become Cup complaint.
- Walk away from the Arb reward if it is too high, making Sammy a UFA immediately, and Leafs go with Woll and Murray as their goalies next year.

Not as attractive as getting some value for him but it would have maybe been a 3rd or later pick so not the end of the world.

I expect they will cut a deal before arb process prevents it and will have to drop an asset to get rid of Murray. Unless Sami squeezes too hard.

 

[Mess]

Not as attractive as getting some value for him but it would have maybe been a 3rd or later pick so not the end of the world.

I expect they will cut a deal before arb process prevents it and will have to drop an asset to get rid of Murray. Unless Sami squeezes too hard.

Yearly of all the players that file for Arbirtation only a very few low % ever make it through the process with an award.

Something like +90% of all players sign prior to a ruling.