Free Agent/Trades 2015: Offer Sheets, Buyouts, Terminations & Free Agency

[LeafingTheWay]

Hjalmarsson played the most even-strength minutes of any Chicago defenseman, and played the second most ES minutes on a per-game basis (behind Keith). He's also a defensive stalwart, while Phaneuf is not (to put it kindly). Of course, Phaneuf produces very well offensively (both 5on5 and on the PP), while Hjalmarsson does not.

I agree with the premise (that Phaneuf should play less and be utilized in a way that emphasizes his strengths), but I don't agree with the comparison, or the idea that Phaneuf should be on the second PP unit. He shouldn't be the puck carrier on the first (or second) unit, but he should be on the first unit.

Hjarmlsson played the 2nd most 5v5 minutes PER game, and that behind D.Keith and also played a QoC lower than that of Keith and Seabrooks' QoC. Agreed Phaneuf isn't a defensive stalwart, while Hjarmlsson is. But, Phaneuf should be used against lower QoC than that of a 1st pairing would face.

For how Phaneuf should be used, that's just my opinion combined with stats. I would much rather prefer Rielly be the puck-manning guy on the 1st PP (He does have the best pts/60 on the PP averaging the last 2 years). In combination, I think having Gardiner on there to complement the PP pairing is better. Both Phaneuf and Rielly are strictly offensively minded as of now, and having a two-way guy with relatively good PP points/60 numbers with one of them makes sense. Plus, Gardiner & Rielly numbers at EV are more impressive than Rielly-Phaneuf have posted at EV.

1st PP should be: JVR - Kadri - Lupul with Rielly-Gardiner . But pure stats-wise, Phaneuf would be the better choice instead of Gardiner. I just don't prefer having two Offensive D-men manning the PP.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

lol. Someone said Dallas should target Phaneuf and in return, Goligoski should be one of the pieces coming back. Another poster argued back saying Dallas shouldn't make that move, because they're both LHD and Goligoski has done a lot better in that top-pairing role

Oh, if we trade Phaneuf to Dallas, it's Lehtonen and/or Hemsky coming back as cap dumps. They won't be trading Goligoski to get Phaneuf in return. That's dumb. I don't think anyone should realistically suggest that.

However, I do think Phaneuf is a better player than Goligoski and is worth more. Maybe Goligoski did well but he also played with Klingberg, whom was amazing last year. Phaneuf played with Franson and made him look damn good while he was at it. Klingberg is much better than Franson. Daley is probably better than Franson, and that was Goligoski's secondary partner. Phaneuf's secondary (and best) partner was Gardiner, but remember that he was atrociously bad the first half of the season also.

Phaneuf makes plenty of sense for them in terms of need and fit. Whether or not Nill feels the same way, we will see. It can make sense salary wise and asset wise (Dickinson, Ritchie, Honka, Oleksiak, 2016 1st, etc). Really, it's whether or not they feel getting out of Lehtonen and/or Hemsky's contract and having a top 4 of Klingberg, Goligoski, Demers and Phaneuf (playoffs worthy) is worth taking on the long term commitment of Phaneuf's deal (even though I don't think it's nearly as bad as people make it out to be) and giving up the assets required to get him.

However no one should say we will get a crap deal for Phaneuf or say he's anything less than a high end number 2, because saying so is simply incorrect. I've seen some pretty bad Phaneuf to Dallas deals... There were much better ones earlier in the year. And if anything, Phaneuf's value has gone up since then.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Hjarmlsson played the 2nd most 5v5 minutes PER game

I know, I said that in the post you quoted.

and that behind D.Keith and also played a QoC lower than that of Keith and Seabrooks' QoC. Agreed Phaneuf isn't a defensive stalwart, while Hjarmlsson is. But, Phaneuf should be used against lower QoC than that of a 1st pairing would face.

Phaneuf should be playing worse competition, but the difference between Phaneuf's QoC and Gardiner's QoC (5on5 ZN Adj.) is 1.8 goals per 1200 minutes. Levels of competition tends to be similar over the course of a season, and Phaneuf is already playing second-pairing even-strength minutes, so it would be difficult to further decrease his usage (although I agree that the Leafs should do so).

For how Phaneuf should be used, that's just my opinion combined with stats. I would much rather prefer Rielly be the puck-manning guy on the 1st PP (He does have the best pts/60 on the PP averaging the last 2 years). In combination, I think having Gardiner on there to complement the PP pairing is better. Both Phaneuf and Rielly are strictly offensively minded as of now, and having a two-way guy with relatively good PP points/60 numbers with one of them makes sense. Plus, Gardiner & Rielly numbers at EV are more impressive than Rielly-Phaneuf have posted at EV.

Fair enough. I'm personally not too worried about defensive ability on the PP, but I see your argument. Gardiner-Rielly is unquestionably the better 5on5 pairing, but I like Phaneuf's shot on the PP, and he's produced well with the man-advantage. Obviously Rielly should be carrying the puck and making the decisions with the puck (Phaneuf is a poor passer and puck carrier; Rielly is great at both), but I do believe Phaneuf has a place on the 1st PP unit.

 

[91Kadri91*]

However, I do think Phaneuf is a better player than Goligoski and is worth more.

Why, exactly? Every single one of Phaneuf's metrics have been inferior over the past two seasons (whether that's GFRel%, CF/FFRel%, HSCFRel%, SCFRel%, P/60, dCorsi/FenwickImpact, GAR, passing metrics, etc), while playing less even-strength minutes (3rd among Leafs defensemen in that regard) than Goligoski (who has played the most even-strength minutes of any Dallas defenseman).

Maybe Goligoski did well but he also played with Klingberg, whom was amazing last year. Phaneuf played with Franson and made him look damn good while he was at it. Klingberg is much better than Franson. Daley is probably better than Franson, and that was Goligoski's secondary partner. Phaneuf's secondary (and best) partner was Gardiner, but remember that he was atrociously bad the first half of the season also.

Klingberg is very good, but Franson played better without Phaneuf- not just on Nashville, but with Gardiner and Rielly as well (significantly better with Gardiner)- and Daley was horrendous this season.

Phaneuf makes plenty of sense for them in terms of need and fit. Whether or not Nill feels the same way, we will see. It can make sense salary wise and asset wise (Dickinson, Ritchie, Honka, Oleksiak, 2016 1st, etc). Really, it's whether or not they feel getting out of Lehtonen and/or Hemsky's contract and having a top 4 of Klingberg, Goligoski, Demers and Phaneuf (playoffs worthy) is worth taking on the long term commitment of Phaneuf's deal (even though I don't think it's nearly as bad as people make it out to be) and giving up the assets required to get him.

I do agree that Phaneuf makes sense for them. He slots in perfectly beside a great defensive (and possession) player in Demers, and they possess the assets necessary to complete such a deal.

However no one should say we will get a crap deal for Phaneuf

I don't think we'll get a crap deal for Phaneuf. I hope not, at least.

or say he's anything less than a high end number 2, because saying so is simply incorrect.

Saying he's not a high-end number 2 is in accordance with facts. He's very good on the PP, and he's not terrible on the PK (not great, but not awful), but he's not a good even-strength player, and he plays 75% of the game at even-strength (with the typical team playing 85+ percent at even-strength last season). He played second-pairing 5on5 minutes this past season, and he shouldn't be playing any more than that at even-strength.

I've seen some pretty bad Phaneuf to Dallas deals... There were much better ones earlier in the year. And if anything, Phaneuf's value has gone up since then.

He was better this past season than he was last season, but back-to-back seasons of poor play (even with a terrible system in place) can't be good for his value.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

out of curiosity, how much trade bait do we have for this deadline. since we should be selling like a farmers market this year.

seems like we should be bound for atleast
hopefully a first this year and next
2-3 nice prospects
2x2 second rounders
a few third.

depending on production by the fore mentioned players

 

[613Leafer]

out of curiosity, how much trade bait do we have for this deadline. since we should be selling like a farmers market this year.

seems like we should be bound for atleast
hopefully a first this year and next
2-3 nice prospects
2x2 second rounders
a few third.

depending on production by the fore mentioned players

Pending UFAs: Parenteau, Arcobello, Polak, Matthias, and Spaling.

Other potential sell options: Reimer, Bozak, Lupul, Phaneuf, etc.

 

[Ovate]

What do people see as a realistic return for Phaneuf, no salary retained?

I believe that realistically, that he's not going to return any premium assets. Instead, a collection of lesser assets makes more sense.

Something a 2nd + couple of (non-top) prospects/young players + cap dump. Maybe another pick instead of one of the prospects.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Regarding Phaneuf;

I think it'll be interesting to see what the new team build and system from Babcock will do to the relative metrics of our D-men. The way we played last year and before penalized D-men who needs to utilize passes, not skating, to move the puck as there were so rarely alternatives available.

Under Babcock, who generally likes his D-men to move the puck by passing to forwards that lends support rather than to escape with it themselves, I think we'll see a change.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Phaneuf's numbers increase to that of a decent to good #2, while Gardiner's decrease a bit.

Regarding Goligoski;

The general perception of him is so bad that it's hard to shake. It took me some 10-15 views this year along with a statistical analysis to fully shake the preconceived notion that he's awful.

 

[SprDaVE]

What do people see as a realistic return for Phaneuf, no salary retained?

I believe that realistically, that he's not going to return any premium assets. Instead, a collection of lesser assets makes more sense.

Something a 2nd + couple of (non-top) prospects/young players + cap dump. Maybe another pick instead of one of the prospects.

Cap dump or two (depending on the team to equal the total cap hit), good prospect or young player and a top 60 pick ---depending on the severity of the dumps and/or value of the prospect. Sounds a bit low for his value, I tend to agree, but it's what I see the return being right now considering everything. It really doesn't look like the captain is moving anytime soon.

I don't see a lot of teams that Phaneuf could fit on right now. Dallas and Edmonton (less so now I suppose though) are the only ones that make sense to me. They have a couple cap dumps to make it work and an eagerness to compete this season.

 

[SprDaVE]

Regarding Goligoski;

The general perception of him is so bad that it's hard to shake. It took me some 10-15 views this year along with a statistical analysis to fully shake the preconceived notion that he's awful.

I don't think he's awful. He's in a similar situation as Phaneuf though in terms of help around him. People think he's awful because Dallas is, well, awful (defensively anyway)... again like Phaneuf.

He's a pending UFA this season. He's likely to get around 6M long-term I think, maybe a bit more depending on his season.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Pending UFAs: Parenteau, Arcobello, Polak, Matthias, and Spaling.

Other potential sell options: Reimer, Bozak, Lupul, Phaneuf, etc.

Reimer is also a pending UFA, as is Frattin and Brennan.

 

[BlueForever]

Pending UFAs: Parenteau, Arcobello, Polak, Matthias, and Spaling.

Other potential sell options: Reimer, Bozak, Lupul, Phaneuf, etc.

Other then Reilly, Bernier, Percy, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Brown, Leivo, Bracco and JVR the rest of the team is available.

 

[ULF_55]

Other then Reilly, Bernier, Percy, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Brown, Leivo, Bracco and JVR the rest of the team is available.

I'd narrow that list down:

Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Bernier

Everyone else is available.

And for the right price everyone is available, but I doubt Tavares, Toews, Eichel, or McDavid are on the market.

 

[Drew75]

Pending UFAs: Parenteau, Arcobello, Polak, Matthias, and Spaling.

Other potential sell options: Reimer, Bozak, Lupul, Phaneuf, etc.

Assuming they are not packaged, I would wager a guess the most likely returns are in the range of (could be prospect / young player equivalent of the pick):

Parenteau: 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Arcobello: 3rd round pick
Polak: 2nd round pick + mid level prospect
Matthias: (if he performs with more opportunity) 1st round pick / (if not) 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Spaling: 3rd or 4th round pick (depending on performance)
Reimer: 2nd + 4th round pick
Bozak: 2nd round pick
Lupul: (if he stays healthy & regains form): 1st round pick + cap dump, (if not): who the hell knows?
Phaneuf: 1st round pick and cap dump, or 2nd round pick + decent prospect + cap dump

Realistically we should be able to turn this group into (split between both 2016 & 2017) about 3 or 4 2nd round picks, 2 or 3 3rd round picks, a 4th+ or two, and a couple of decent prospects. There is a chance to grab a couple of 1sts, but it will depend on everything falling into place, having guys like Matthias & Lupul have great years, or a positive market shift on Phaneuf.

 

[namttebih]

I'd narrow that list down:

Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Bernier

Everyone else is available.

And for the right price everyone is available, but I doubt Tavares, Toews, Eichel, or McDavid are on the market.

Now why would Kapanen be untouchable? Especially over Kadri and JVR. He's not even that shiny?

 

[ULF_55]

Now why would Kapanen be untouchable? Especially over Kadri and JVR. He's not even that shiny?

Same reason Nylander is, part of the future, same draft class, and Dubas said he was the key to the Kessel trade.

 

[Gutchecktime]

Assuming they are not packaged, I would wager a guess the most likely returns are in the range of (could be prospect / young player equivalent of the pick):

Parenteau: 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Arcobello: 3rd round pick
Polak: 2nd round pick + mid level prospect
Matthias: (if he performs with more opportunity) 1st round pick / (if not) 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Spaling: 3rd or 4th round pick (depending on performance)
Reimer: 2nd + 4th round pick
Bozak: 2nd round pick
Lupul: (if he stays healthy & regains form): 1st round pick + cap dump, (if not): who the hell knows?
Phaneuf: 1st round pick and cap dump, or 2nd round pick + decent prospect + cap dump

Realistically we should be able to turn this group into (split between both 2016 & 2017) about 3 or 4 2nd round picks, 2 or 3 3rd round picks, a 4th+ or two, and a couple of decent prospects. There is a chance to grab a couple of 1sts, but it will depend on everything falling into place, having guys like Matthias & Lupul have great years, or a positive market shift on Phaneuf.

It's kinda crazy that even if you go way more conservative with your estimate, we already have 11 picks this year and could have 14-15+ by the time all is said and done. So many opportunities for Hunter and so very different from what we've done in the past for our scouts.

They have a chance to be pretty creative too -- trade down from late firsts for additional second-thirds? Bundle lower picks to move up in that range? If a kid you like is falling, you have assets to trade into the round. Should be really interesting.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Assuming they are not packaged, I would wager a guess the most likely returns are in the range of (could be prospect / young player equivalent of the pick):

Parenteau: 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Arcobello: 3rd round pick
Polak: 2nd round pick + mid level prospect
Matthias: (if he performs with more opportunity) 1st round pick / (if not) 2nd round pick + maybe mid level prospect / additional later pick
Spaling: 3rd or 4th round pick (depending on performance)
Reimer: 2nd + 4th round pick
Bozak: 2nd round pick
Lupul: (if he stays healthy & regains form): 1st round pick + cap dump, (if not): who the hell knows?
Phaneuf: 1st round pick and cap dump, or 2nd round pick + decent prospect + cap dump

Realistically we should be able to turn this group into (split between both 2016 & 2017) about 3 or 4 2nd round picks, 2 or 3 3rd round picks, a 4th+ or two, and a couple of decent prospects. There is a chance to grab a couple of 1sts, but it will depend on everything falling into place, having guys like Matthias & Lupul have great years, or a positive market shift on Phaneuf.

Now this is assuming these guys have an average season compared to what they normally have... Except for Lupul where we assume he is healthy and productive and Brennan and Frattin where they meet decent expectations.

Spaling: 2nd round pick
Matthias: 2nd + 4th
Reimer: 2nd + 4th
Arcobello: 4th rounder
Bozak: 1st round pick
Lupul: 1st round pick + cap dump
Polak: 1st round pick or 2nd + B prospect
Parenteau: 2nd + 3rd
Phaneuf: High level prospect, 1st round pick + cap dump
Frattin: 4th/5th round pick + cap dump
Brennan: 5th + cap dump

 

[Gutchecktime]

Now this is assuming these guys have an average season compared to what they normally have... Except for Lupul where we assume he is healthy and productive and Brennan and Frattin where they meet decent expectations.

Spaling: 2nd round pick
Matthias: 2nd + 4th
Reimer: 2nd + 4th
Arcobello: 4th rounder
Bozak: 1st round pick
Lupul: 1st round pick + cap dump
Polak: 1st round pick or 2nd + B prospect
Parenteau: 2nd + 3rd
Phaneuf: High level prospect, 1st round pick + cap dump
Frattin: 4th/5th round pick + cap dump
Brennan: 5th + cap dump

Little bit pie in the sky here. Don't think we're getting a 1st for Bozak and Lupul.

 

[ChuckWoods]

Little bit pie in the sky here. Don't think we're getting a 1st for Bozak and Lupul.

Agreed.

Some people need to temper their expectations, as some of these 1 year deals will remain Leafs and walk away to free agency.

Yes the best asset managment would be to trade them all, but in reality they do need to ice a team and bringing up Half the Marlies roster 3/4 of the way through the season in itself may not be the most ideal asset managment.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think at this point, Phaneuf's value has been hurt quite a bit and we're better off keeping him this year under Babcock, hopefully build that value back up and move him at the deadline or next off-season.

As we saw in UFA, top 4D are not cheap .

 

[91Kadri91*]

Regarding Phaneuf;

I think it'll be interesting to see what the new team build and system from Babcock will do to the relative metrics of our D-men. The way we played last year and before penalized D-men who needs to utilize passes, not skating, to move the puck as there were so rarely alternatives available.

Under Babcock, who generally likes his D-men to move the puck by passing to forwards that lends support rather than to escape with it themselves, I think we'll see a change.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Phaneuf's numbers increase to that of a decent to good #2, while Gardiner's decrease a bit.

Phaneuf's not a very effective passer:





I do expect Phaneuf's base numbers to increase, and Gardiner's relative numbers to decrease, because I believe the Leafs will be a much better possession team under Babcock, but good defensemen's relative number should (theoretically) benefit from playing a poor team, since the rest of their teammates will have inferior numbers. Despite that, Phaneuf's relative numbers are (for the most part) abysmal.

Phaneuf very well may see a drastic improvement, but I'm going to take a wait and see approach as far as that's concerned. Whatever the case, there's absolutely no question that Goligoski has been the superior defenseman in each of the last two seasons.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I'm really impressed with JVR. Despite his awful season, he always manages to escape criticism from Leafs coaches and management.

Hopefully their planning to trade him while his value is still somewhat high because his disappearing act will be much more noticeable without Kessel shielding him

 

[indigobuffalo]

They won't be dealing Phaneuf or Bozak.

Lupul maybe.

As for the 1-year guys, they're all on the block, for sure. But I think it's ambitious to hope for anything better than a 3rd for any of them.

Arcobello I doubt gets more than a 5th, unless he performs miraculously.

Parenteau already has some bad history now, under performing for the Habs. Even if he has a 25-30 goal season for the Leafs, I would be very surprised to see him fetch a 2nd round pick.

Matthias is a question mark but if he plays well in the top 6 I'm not sure this is necessarily a guy the Leafs will trade, unless it's in a Winnik fashion to get him back as a UFA.

 

[Gutchecktime]

They won't be dealing Phaneuf or Bozak.

Lupul maybe.

As for the 1-year guys, they're all on the block, for sure. But I think it's ambitious to hope for anything better than a 3rd for any of them.

Arcobello I doubt gets more than a 5th, unless he performs miraculously.

Parenteau already has some bad history now, under performing for the Habs. Even if he has a 25-30 goal season for the Leafs, I would be very surprised to see him fetch a 2nd round pick.

Matthias is a question mark but if he plays well in the top 6 I'm not sure this is necessarily a guy the Leafs will trade, unless it's in a Winnik fashion to get him back as a UFA.

Getting 2-3 picks out of the whole bunch would still be quite good I think. Even if it's just 3rd-5th round. ~14 picks in a draft gives Hunter a ton of opportunity.