Glad you enjoyed the read, will try and explain on some of your questions.
Smith and Farabee both suffer with me for different reasons. With Smith I just don't see the elite in zone offensive game and creativity to be an elite offensive guy in the NHL. Now that would be fine if I thought he was as good defensively as many here think he is, but I cannot agree with that. Defensively he gives up inside positioning too often and was really exposed in this regard at the u18s. His skating is absolutely elite and he's excellent in transition, though he does opt to skate it a bit too much which makes sense given his skating advantage in junior but is going to be less effective as he moves up a level. Being 17th is no slight, just reasons I like guys above him better. Comparing directly to Tychonick I think Smith is not as smart or as skilled of a guy with the puck, I see Tychonick making creative plays and consistently outthinking players in ways I only occasionally saw from Smith. I would give Smith an edge in skating but defensively Tychonick has better instincts and has shown a much better stick and ability to force turnovers.
Farabee is a guy who I just don't see major upside with. He's a great quick decision maker and processes the play very fast, his brain is an A+ asset. When it comes to actually creating and not just making the right read however I don't think he's as special, as a skater he's above average but certainly not putting guys on their heels often. His puck handling ability is once again good, but not approaching great. His shot has a lot of room for growth, but thats not a massive problem as a view him as more of a playmaker, however I didn't see nearly enough truly special passes from him for me to think he's gonna be some major playmaker in the NHL, again being 19th is no slight to him and I still really like him. Noel is significantly more raw but his skating and hands combination is absolutely insane. Noel is a complete outlier in some of the stuff he can do on the ice and climbed my rankings all year as he's just too talented not to take a chance on, I don't see that kind of special in Farabee.
I paid plenty of attention to the USHL guys but I think a lot of them had numbers better than their talent level. Drury I really wanted to like more but he succeeds because he's so above average at everything in Junior, he moves up a level and he's not fast or skilled enough to be an offensive producer, limited upside I think. McLaughlin is a noticeably slow skater and I think he benefited a ton from playing with Dugan who I absolutely love. He does see the ice extremely well so he could surprise if his skating improves a ton. Ranta, elite tools and no brain. Madden and Steeves are guys I do like but both are late 99s and have a long ways to go. Only USHL guy I love compared to consensus is St. Ivany who I'm convinced is gonna be an NHLer.
Miller vs Samuelsson is not even a question for me. Miller is noticeably in a completely different tier of prospect, there is not one element of the game I think Samuelson is better at other than throwing a puck out of the glass. Defensively I will admit Miller is more prone to a big mistake, while Samuelson rather makes a bunch of little ones all game. There are numbers that back this up as well if you subscribe to The Athletic. I think Millers IQ is only average but I love a lot of his instinctual things like his gap control and some of the plays he makes off the rush.
Bokk at 9 I think I explain in my write up. Elite puck handling and creativity and so much growth potential that there's not many guys beneath him I even had to legitimately debate having above him, big fan of his potential.
O'brien has no clear weakness sure, but no real clear strengths at the next level either. More of a guy thats pretty good at everything, all the guys above him I simply see more in. And again 48 is definitely not ridiculously low on him, I still am a fan.
Hope this helps clarify a couple things, and feel free to ask if you have any more questions.
after my original post, I feel as if it came off a bit too harsh which wasn't my intention.
I always applaud those that put lists out there for people to tear and shred, like you, I did my top 60 list each and every draft...I would defend what I felt was right over what others thought was wrong. We need more of this type of stuff and not less, so my apologies if it came off as dickish as that was not my intention at all.
I again just respectfully disagree with Smith and Farabee here. For me, Smith just thinks the game at a near elite level. I have rarely seen him make a mistake, rarely which is so beyond impressive with how fast he moves out there. His decision making at high speeds is what makes him near elite for me. Now here is what makes what we discuss so fun. Craig Button has Smith outside his top 15 at #22, but Kyle Woodlief has him inside his top 10. People just see things different or hold certain skills/attributes higher than others.
You cannot convince me that a player of that skill, IQ, speed, etc should be behind guys like Miller and Wilde...then have him behind a guy like Bokk who you have in the top 10. You have issues with Smith and his play at times as well as him not being as good offensively and defensively, yet Bokk with so many more flaws is at #9 for you? Different positions no doubt, but it is your justification for certain prospects being ranked higher than others when some have same concerns or even more flaws in their game has been my main issue here.
I have no problems with you calling out Smith's deficiencies if they are there, but no way should he be punished and yet guys like Miller and Wilde who have been Atrocious for parts of the year are ranked higher and their issues/flaws are being marginalized...does that make sense?
I can take your explanation in a sense with Farabee that you don't see his upside as high as others. That is fair I guess. When you have a guy that can play the game any way you want, sometimes they just lose that flash because they can grind it out or play that 200ft game...I have never seen a 200ft Gretzky right?? lol.. After watching Joel this entire year and stretches last year, I just am not sure what you are missing to be honest. He is one of the fastest guys on the ice, you obviously agree he is one of the smartest, but the way he buzzes around nets, creates havoc and opportunities is just a thing of beauty. Very reminiscent of Zach Parise. Button has Joel at #11 and Woodlief at #12...though 19 isn't a bad spot, it is a slight to him IMO as the kid has talent and brains which likely sees him inside that top 12.
And I am just listing rankings of Button and Woodlief to prove points on how actual scouts (no slight to you or me) views the guys we are talking about, it isn't meant for a gotcha...even they see things differently.
I really like Bokk....for the Hawks to select..at #27 though lol! You can like your guys but your justification for him at 9 is almost dreamy IMO...I think you have your guy that you are going to the fire with, and I have done that soooo many times as well, been burned a few times but looked good others. I think he will be a good player, has some challenges ahead, but he could turn out to be that gem, and you were the guy saying it. Hard sell for me, but the kid has a lot of skill and I would definitely look at him in that later first round range.
Button has him 30th and Woodlief outside of the top 22...
I have been waiting all year for the real K'Andre Miller to show up and I haven't really seen it yet to be honest. The two players on that US blue line that have been the steadiest and most impressive this entire year are M Samuelsson and Ty Emberson for me. Both players are going to have nice careers and guys who should go higher. I even really like Stastney over both Miller and Wilde as well.. There was so much hype for both Wilde and Miller I almost think it has blindfolded some people. I can see glimpses of what "could" make them great, but man are the brain farts, bad positioning, turn over outlet passing pilling up for these two. On physical gifts and tools, yep these kids are top 15 threats, but actually on the ice and in the games, I have seen these guys just look average to blah most of the year.
Mattias Samuelsson for me has looked a lot like Connor Murphy but even more mobile. He is a lock for a top 4 dman, just built for that role. Maybe even something like Brooks Orpik as the game still has an average size over 6'1, so a player like Samuelsson who makes smart simple plays will have a bright future here. Not fast on his skates, but he isn't a snail either, kid will work hard on that, his bloodlines will make sure of that.
for K'Andre Miller - Button has him 31st and Woodlief not in his top 20
for Mattias Samuelsson - Button has him 33rd and Woodlief 18th I believe.
for Bode Wilde - Button has him 16th and not sure where Woodlief had him to be honest but it was inside the top 22.
so who knows what will happen with these three hulking US blue liners, it can go any way possible in 2 weeks.
As for Jay O'Brien, he is an enigma to most on here. He seems to be one of the players that has been rising since February as more scouts have been heading out to Thayer to see him. He has had multiple meetings with a number of NHL teams already, and according to some, he will not be around come round 2. Everything this kid does is near elite. His IQ, his work ethic, his speed and hands are just near elite for me. He held his own with the USNDP as a fill in which isn't easy to do, but he plays in a Prep league that isn't filled with the best competition so I understand some concerns. I just felt that a number of the guys you put really high like Bokk or Tychonic, this kid has every bit the skill and ceiling as they do, yet he is down in the mid 40's. That just doesn't seem like it will be happening with him draft day.
Button has O'Brien -38th, no idea where Woodlief has him at, but did say he is one of the risers for the draft for a potential top 31 pick.
Button has Tychonic- 54th and Woodlief outside his top 31....so yeah you are out to lunch on that kid lol!! I like Tychonic as a nice early second round sleeper, but having him where you have him at is a hard sell again for me.
Again, thanks for the list with write ups and for the differing opinion. There is nobody on here that is right or thinks they are smarter than anyone else..we all just see things differently. I think you are a bit down on the USHL as most of the top players you are low on, but that is just my opinion on that as guys like McLaughlin, Drury, O'Brien, etc are going to go higher than you have them at...
Can't wait to see how this draft pans out.....and two players that I am going to the fire for - Jake Wise and Kyle Topping - these two kids are going to make a number of GMs look foolish with where they get selected at. Two of my top centers for this draft period.
